Meteorology Commons^™

The Influence Of Model Resolution On The Simulated Sensitivity Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity To Sea Surface Temperature, Sarah Strazzo, James Elsner, Timothy Larow, Hiroyuki Murakami, Michael Wehner, Ming Zhao

Publications

No abstract provided.

Predicting General Aviation Pilots’ Weather-Related Performance Through A Scenario-Based Written Assessment, Jessica Cruit

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Weather-related accidents continue to challenge the general aviation community and with the development of advanced weather technology, GA pilots need additional education and training on how to effectively use these weather products to ensure flight safety. Currently, the literature on aviation weather suggests that there is a gap in both training and assessment strategy for GA pilots. Furthermore, several studies suggest that there needs to be more assessment of weather-related scenario/application questions for the private pilot’s written knowledge exam in order to assess a deeper level of knowledge for weather-related material. The purpose of this study is to design a …

Forecast Verification Of The Current Icing Potential (Cip) To Predict Lightning Hazards At U.S. Spaceports, Robert Edward Haley

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Government spaceports employ extensive lightning detection networks that may not be available at commercial spaceports. Therefore, the Federal Aviation Administration identified the need for diagnosing the threat of triggered lightning without in-situ measurements. Anecdotal observations of the Aviation Weather Center’s Current Icing Potential (CIP) diagnostic model indicated a potentially high correlation between lightning activity and icing potential. A forecast verification study and supporting representative case studies were conducted to quantify the CIP’s ability to diagnose existing lightning hazards. The study showed that high positive statistical correlations between the CIP and lightning activity do exist, but so do negative correlations. During …

New Metric For Defining The Time Of Extratropical Transition Of Tropical Cyclones, Ajay Raghavendra, Shawn M. Milrad

Publications

Almost half of all tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Atlantic basin undergo extratropical transition (ET). During an ET event, wind fields often expand dramatically, resulting in more widely-felt impacts. Moreover, the heaviest precipitation typically shifts to the left-of-center (LOC), which can result in inland flash flooding hundreds of kilometers from the cyclone center. While several objective metrics to track and predict ET have been developed, they rely at least partially on internal tropical cyclone structure, for which numerical models show less skill. Further, these metrics fail to account for static stability, which plays a vital role in determining precipitation amounts. …

The Tornado That Struck Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University On Christmas Day, 2006: Lessons Learned From A Near-Miss, John M. Lanicci

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

An F2 tornado that touched down in Daytona Beach on Christmas Day afternoon caused over $50 million of damage to the Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University campus and nearby neighborhoods. The tornado was part of a severe-weather outbreak over Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina that began during the overnight hours of 25 December 2006. Examination of surface and upper-level meteorological charts and vertical soundings on the morning of 25 December showed stability and wind-shear conditions favorable for tornadic thunderstorms over this region. The evolution of the squall line that moved through east-central Florida, and the parent thunderstorm that produced the tornado was …

Enhancing Quality Assurance Using Virtual Design Engineering: Case Study Of Space Shuttle Challenger, Kouroush Jenab, Scot Paterson

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Virtual Design Engineering is an emerging method of increasing quality of systems. Including Virtual Design as a part of the traditional established Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis process greatly enhances hazard and risk analysis while reducing overall costs. In this study these enhancements are explored and expanded upon to discover how overall system quality could be increased and all stakeholders could more accurately understand the hazards involved. Stakeholder misunderstanding or misapplication of hazards is of great importance to complex systems. An illustrative example of how these factors could have changed the outcome of a real-world engineering failure is provided.

Aviation Bird Hazard In Nexrad Dual Polarization Weather Radar Confirmed By Visual Observations, Bradley M. Muller, Frederick R. Mosher, Christopher G. Herbster, Anthony T. Brickhouse

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Birds represent a significant hazard to flying aircraft as illustrated by the “Miracle on the Hudson” encounter in 2009 between U.S. Airways Flight 1549 and a flock of Canada Geese, forcing the flight to ditch in the river. Birds are common in the skies over Florida during the spring migration season, and often appear in the National Weather Service’s (NWS) NEXRAD weather radar imagery as an easily recognizable signature known as a “roost ring.” This paper presents a NEXRAD roost ring case in central Florida in a rare instance where the signatures were confirmed by visual observations of the birds. …

Bio-Fuel Alternatives In South African Airways (Saa) Operations - Is It An Effective Response To Vulnerability Over Carbon Taxes And Penalty?, Daniel Kwasi Adjekum

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

The paper did a comparative analysis of the carbon emission and European Union Emission Trading Surcharges (EU ETS) of South African Airways (SAA) current fleet that used aviation jet A1 fuel and the same fleet if it had used a 25% bio-fuel ‘drop in’ for the European routes within the first quarter of the 2014 flying year (FY 14). Operational data in terms of the flight scheduled, aircraft type, total time enroute, route stage length, passenger estimates were obtained through SAA’s flight operations website. An independent t–test was conducted to compare means of the emissions. The mean carbon dioxide …

A Meteorological Analysis Of The 2013 Alberta Flood: Antecendent Large-Scale Flow Pattern And Synoptic-Dynamic Characteristics, Shawn M. Milrad, John R. Gyakum, Eyad H. Atallah

Publications

The 19–21 June 2013 Alberta flood was the costliest (CAD $6 billion) natural disaster in Canadian history. The flood was caused by a combination of above-normal spring snowmelt in the Canadian Rockies, large antecedent precipitation, and an extreme rainfall event on 19–21 June that produced rainfall totals of 76 mm in Calgary and 91 mm in the foothills. As is typical of flash floods along the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains, rapidly rising streamflow proceeded to move downhill (eastward) into Calgary.

A meteorological analysis traces an antecedent Rossby wave train across the North Pacific Ocean, starting with intense baroclinic …

Hurricanes And Climate The U.S. Clivar Working Group On Hurricanes, Kevin J.E. Walsh, Suzana J. Camargo, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Anne Sophie Daloz, James Elsner, Kerry Emanuel, Michael Horn, Young-Kwon Lim, Malcom Roberts, Christina Patricola, Enrico Scoccimarro, Adam H. Sobel, Sarah Strazzo, Gabrielle Villarini, Michael Wehner, Ming Zhao, James P. Kossin, Tim Larow, Kazuyoshi Oouchi, Sigfried Schubert, Hui Wang, Julio Bacmeister, Ping Chang, Fabrice Chauvin, Christiane Jablonowski, Arun Kumar, Hiroyuki Murakami, Tomoaki Ose, Kevin A. Reed, Ramalingam Saravanan, Yohei Yamada, Colin M. Zarzycki, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jefferey A. Jonas, Naomi Henderson

Publications

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results from …

Quantifying The Sensitivity Of Maximum, Limiting, And Potential Tropical Cyclone Intensity To Sst: Observations Versus The Fsu/ Coaps Global Climate Model, Sarah Strazzo, James Elsner, Tim Larow

Publications

No abstract provided.

Numerical Model Derived Altimeter Correction Maps For Non-Standard Atmospheric Temperature And Pressure, Thomas A. Guinn, Frederick R. Mosher

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Altimeter corrections for non-standard temperature pose a challenge because accurate calculations require detailed knowledge of the temperature structure of the atmosphere between the surface and the aircraft. By applying basic hypsometric formulae to high resolution numerical model temperature and moisture output, detailed maps of current and forecasted corrected D-values are created. Corrected D-values provide the altitude difference between the true altitude and the indicated altitude from a pressure altimeter. Unlike standard D-values, the corrected D-value corrects for non-standard pressure in addition to non-standard temperature and is therefore useful for flights below class A airspace. Maps of corrected D-value may help …

Aviation Security Impacts Of Meteorological And Climatic Disruption, Melanie Wetzel

Aviation / Aeronautics / Aerospace International Research Conference

Commercial and military flight operations are frequently imperiled or disrupted by meteorological conditions. Severe weather events and climate-related factors create aviation security impacts on airport siting and reliability, human safety, economic stability, military defense strategy, aircraft routing and computer systems vulnerability. Climate trends have been associated with increased frequency of storm surge incursions at coastal airports, intense snowfall accumulations, runway closures due to rainstorm runoff, extended periods of fog/stratus restrictions and severe-weather related risk from lightning, hail and icing. The economic and safety impacts of these events are being incorporated into long-term planning by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), …

Wtic Research At Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Jessica Cruit, Beth Blickensderfer, John Lanicci, Bob Thomas, Thomas A. Guinn

Aviation Weather Training Research

No abstract provided.

A Swirl In The Clouds Near Santa Cruz Island (Images Of Note), Bradley M. Muller, Christopher G. Herbster

Publications

The authors discuss a rare photograph of an atmospheric eddy produced by marine boundary layer flow past terrain.

Editorial: Special Issue: Safety & Efficiency Of Civil Aviation: Selected Papers From The World Conferences Of The Air Transport Research Society And The World Conference On Transport Society - 2013, Paul Hooper, Ian Douglas, Chunyan Yu, Stefano Paleari

Publications

The Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) is a Special Interest Group (SIG) of the World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTRS). The ATRS annual World Conference was held at the University of Bergamo, Bergamo, Italy on 26-29 June 2013 and it attracted 266 papers from 37 countries. Also, the WCTRS triennial World Conference was held on 15- 18 July at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during which the ATRS organised several sessions devoted to air transport topics. This special issue of the Journal of Air Transport Studies has drawn upon all of this material to present four papers that promote improvements …

Weather Research Requirements To Improve Space Launch From Cape Canaveral Air Force Station And Nasa Kennedy Space Center, William P. Roeder, Lisa L. Huddleston, William H. Bauman Iii, Kelly B. Doser

Space Traffic Management Conference

Weather has a large affect on operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). Weather is the leading source of scrubs and delays to space launch from CCAFS/KSC. Weather has an even larger impact on ground processing as space launch vehicles and payloads are prepared in the months before space launch. Many of those operations are very sensitive to weather. In addition, the weather in Florida is notoriously difficult to predict, especially during the summer when rapid deep convection can occur in minutes. Finally, the weather can be extremely subtle in this area during …

Challenges Associated With Space Weather Analysis And Prediction, John Lanicci

Space Traffic Management Conference

The term “space weather” is typically used to describe environmental conditions in the region extending from the sun’s surface, through the interplanetary medium, to the earth’s magnetic field and upper atmosphere, with a focus on those conditions that can affect the earth, its technological systems, and population. Space weather conditions are monitored continuously by a number of agencies around the world. These agencies use both satellite- and ground-based measurements to build analyses and employ predictive models that form the basis for impacts-based products dealing with myriad users in satellite operations, the utility industry, aviation, and satellite-based communications, to name a …

Extreme Value Analysis Of Rainfall Events Over The Kennedy Space Center Complex, Adam David Schnapp

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

The use of observational datasets to determine the occurrence frequencies of extreme weather events has gained a lot of recent interest due to concerns about the potential regional impacts from global climate change. Extreme-value theory can quantify the return frequency of the most extreme events, using climatologically short data sets and the assumption that such short climatological periods are stationary. However, the resulting analyses must be used with caution since they may not accurately reflect the potential of extreme events in the future due to climate change and variability. Accurately predicting extreme-event likelihood is important for building realistic long-range planning …

On The Dynamics, Thermodynamics, And Forecast Model Evaluation Of Two Snow-Burst Events In Southern Alberta, Shawn M. Milrad, John R. Gyakum, Kelly Lombardo, Eyad H. Atallah

Publications

Two high-impact convective snowband events (‘‘snow bursts’’) that affected Calgary, Alberta, Canada, are examined to better understand the dynamics and thermodynamics of heavy snowbands not associated with lake effects or the cold conveyor belt of synoptic-scale cyclones. Such events are typically characterized by brief, but heavy, periods of snow; low visibilities; and substantial hazards to automobile and aviation interests. Previous literature on these events has been limited to a few case studies across North America, including near the leeside foothills of the U.S. Rockies. The large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics are investigated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North …

Finite Element Modeling Of Macro Fiber Composite Actuators With Application To Wing De-Icing, Boutros Youssef Azizi

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Icing can have a profound impact on aircraft performance during inclement weather conditions. Aircraft icing primarily occurs on the leading edge of wings, tails and engines. The de-icing/anti-icing technologies currently in use are typically bulky, heavy, cover the entire airfoil surface and consume high energy. These drawbacks highlight the need for a de-icing technique that can overcome some or all of the aforementioned problems. Therefore, in this thesis, a proposed de-icing technique is studied in which lightweight Macro Fiber Composite (MFC) actuators are used to break the adhesive bond between the leading edge of a wing and an accumulated ice …

Synoptic Typing And Precursors Of Heavy Warm-Season Precipitation Events At Montreal, Québec, Shawn M. Milrad, Eyad H. Atallah, John R. Gyakum, Giselle Dookhie

Publications

A precipitation climatology is compiled for warm-season events at Montreal, Québec, Canada, using 6-h precipitation data. A total of 1663 events are recorded and partitioned into three intensity categories (heavy, moderate, and light), based on percentile ranges. Heavy (top 10%) precipitation events (n = 166) are partitioned into four types, using a unique manual synoptic typing based on the divergence of Q-vector components. Type A is related to cyclones and strong synoptic-scale quasigeostrophic (QG) forcing for ascent, with high-θe air being advected into the Montreal region from the south. Types B and C are dominated by frontogenesis (mesoscale QG forcing …

Local Meteorological Modeling To Support Flight Training Operations, Austin D. Wardall, Melanie A. Wetzel

Aviation / Aeronautics / Aerospace International Research Conference

Spatial and temporal variability in atmospheric conditions directly impact pilot safety and training objectives. Specific conditions of frequent concern to the ERAU Prescott flight training operations include boundary layer wind shear and turbulence. These conditions are most common during spring and summer months due to vertical wind shear, unstable air temperature profiles and thunderstorm-produced gust fronts. Case study comparisons of a high resolution meteorological forecasting model can demonstrate the value of operational modeling in support of a flight training program.

Adjusted Tornado Probabilities, Holly M. Widen, James B. Elsner, Cameron Amrine, Rizalino B. Cruz, Erik Fraza, Laura Michaels, Loury Migliorelli, Brendan Mulholland, Michael Patterson, Sarah Strazzo, Guang Xing

Publications

Tornado occurrence rates computed from the available reports are biased low relative to the unknown true rates. To correct for this low bias, the authors demonstrate a method to estimate the annual probability of being struck by a tornado that uses the average report density estimated as a function of distance from nearest city/town center. The method is demonstrated on Kansas and then applied to 15 other tornado-prone states from Nebraska to Tennessee. States are ranked according to their adjusted tornado rate and comparisons are made with raw rates published elsewhere. The adjusted rates, expressed as return periods, arestates, including …

Observed Versus Gcm-Generated Local Tropical Cyclone Frequency: Comparisons Using A Spatial Lattice, Sarah Strazzo, Daniel J. Halperin, James Elsner, Tim Larow, Ming Zhao

Publications

Of broad scientific and public interest is the reliability of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate future regional and local tropical cyclone (TC) occurrences. Atmospheric GCMs are now able to generate vortices resembling actual TCs, but questions remain about their fidelity to observed TCs. Here the authors demonstrate a spatial lattice approach for comparing actual with simulated TC occurrences regionally using observed TCs from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset and GCM-generated TCs from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) and Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) …

A Meteorological Analysis Of Important Contributions To The 1999-2005 Canadian Prairie Drought, Lisa M. Hryciw, Eyad H. Atallah, Shawn M. Milrad, John R. Gyakum

Publications

Drought is a complex natural hazard that is endemic to the Canadian prairies. The 1999–2005 Canadian prairie drought, which had great socioeconomic impacts, was meteorologically unique in that it did not conform to the traditional persistent positive Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern and west coast ridging paradigm normally associated with prairie drought. The purpose of this study is to diagnose the unique synoptic-scale mechanisms responsible for modulating subsidence during this drought. Using 30-day running means of the percent of normal precipitation from station data, key severe dry periods during 1999–2005 are identified. Analysis of the mean fields from reanalysis data shows …

Synoptic-Scale Precursors, Characteristics And Typing Of Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective Complexes In The Great Plains, Shawn M. Milrad, Cailee M. Kelly

Publications

Mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) occur frequently during the warm season in the central U.S. and can produce flooding rains, hail and tornadoes. Previous work has found that the synoptic-scale environment can greatly affect, and be affected by, the development and maintenance of MCCs. Ninetytwo MCC cases from 2006–2011 are manually identified using infrared satellite imagery and partitioned into three types (upstream trough, zonal and ridge) using a unique manual synoptic typing based on 500- hPa height patterns. Upstream trough cases feature an amplified longwave 500-hPa trough upstream of the MCC genesis region (GR), while the 500-hPa flow is relatively flat …

Sensitivity Of Limiting Hurricane Intensity To Sst In The Atlantic From Observations And Gcms, James Elsner, Sarah Strazzo, Thomas H. Jagger, Timothy Larow, Ming Zhao

Publications

No abstract provided.

Frequency, Intensity, And Sensitivity To Sea Surface Temperature Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones In Best-Track And Simulated Data, Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Jill C. Trepanier, Kerry A. Emanuel

Publications

Synthetic hurricane track data generated from a downscaling approach are compared to best-track (observed) data to analyze differences in regional frequency, intensity, and sensitivity of limiting intensity to sea surface temperature (SST). Overall, the spatial distributions of observed and simulated hurricane counts match well, although there are relatively fewer synthetic storms in the eastern quarter of the basin. Additionally, regions of intense synthetic hurricanes tend to coincide with regions of intense observed hurricanes. The sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST computed from synthetic data is slightly lower than sensitivity computed from observed data (5.561.31 m s21 (standard error, SE) …

Aviation Weather And Decision Making: A Human Factors Perspective, Beth Blickensderfer, Jessica Cruit, Michael Vincent

Aviation Weather Training Research

• A History of Decision Making Research
• Pilot Decision Making
• Future Research Directions