Meteorology Commons^™

Aviation Weather Products In General Aviation : Interpretability And Usability Research Trends, Jacqueline Mcsorley, Jayde King, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

• Introduction
• Current Study
• Trends
• Summary
• Conclusion

Exploring Perceived Usability And Interpretability Of Aviation Weather Products Among Ga Pilots, Jackie Mcsorley, Jayde King, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

• Introduction
• Results
• Discussion
• Current Investigations

Comparison Of Terrain Effects In Divergent Versus Non-Divergent Barotropic Models, Tyler E. Green, Thomas A. Guinn

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

The effects of including terrain in divergent and non-divergent, single-level barotropic models are examined in detail using a global spectral model. The non-divergent model solves the barotropic vorticity equation, while the divergent model solves the shallow water equations. In both models, the impact of terrain is evaluated by examining the evolution of the predicted heights of a pressure surface. Four simulations with initially zonal flow were run for each model using a two-dimensional Gaussian mountain shape for terrain, with two different mean fluid depths of 5,000 m and 7,500 m, and two different peak mountain heights of 2,000 m and …

Efficacy Of The Localized Aviation Mos Program In Ceiling Flight Category Forecasts, Douglas D. Boyd, Thomas A. Guinn

Publications

(1) Background: Flying in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) carries an elevated risk of fatal outcome for general aviation (GA) pilots. For the typical GA flight, aerodrome-specific forecasts (Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF), Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program (LAMP)) assist the airman in pre-determining whether a flight can be safely undertaken. While LAMP forecasts are more prevalent at GA-frequented aerodromes, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) recommends that this tool be used as supplementary to the TAF only. Herein, the predictive accuracy of LAMP for ceiling flight categories of visual flight rules (VFR) and instrument flight rules (IFR) was determined. (2) Methods: …

Combined Report: Aviation Weather Knowledge Assessment & General Aviation (Ga) Pilots’ Interpretation Of Weather Products, Beth Blickensderfer, John Lanicci, Thomas A. Guinn, Robert Thomas, Jennifer E. Thropp, Jayde King, Yolanda Ortiz, Jessica Cruit, Nicholas Defilippis, Krijn Berendschot, Jacqueline Mcsorley, John Kleber

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

Prior research has indicated that general aviation (GA) pilots may lack adequate knowledge of aviation weather concepts and skill at interpreting aviation weather displays. Therefore, the purpose of the current project was to develop and validate a comprehensive set of aviation weather knowledge and interpretation multiple-choice questions, and in turn, to use the questions to assess pilot understanding of aviation weather concepts and displays. An interdisciplinary research team that included two meteorologists, one Gold Seal Certificated Flight Instructor (CFI), a human factors psychologist, and several human factors graduate students performed this research.

Application Of A Hybrid Statistical–Dynamical System To Seasonal Prediction Of North American Temperature And Precipitation, Sarah Strazzo, Dan C. Collins, Andrew Schepen, Q. J. Wang, Emily Becker, Liweli Jia

Publications

Recent research demonstrates that dynamical models sometimes fail to represent observed teleconnection patterns associated with predictable modes of climate variability. As a result, model forecast skill may be reduced. We address this gap in skill through the application of a Bayesian postprocessing technique—the calibration, bridging, and merging (CBaM) method—which previously has been shown to improve probabilistic seasonal forecast skill over Australia. Calibration models developed from dynamical model reforecasts and observations are employed to statistically correct dynamical model forecasts. Bridging models use dynamical model forecasts of relevant climate modes (e.g., ENSO) as predictors of remote temperature and precipitation. Bridging and calibration …

Aviation Weather Products In General Aviation: Interpretability And Usability Research Trends, Jacqueline Mcsorley, Jayde King, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

As a result of advances in weather forecasting and technology, today’s General Aviation (GA) pilots have access to a wealth of aviation weather information. During pre-flight planning, GA pilots may access weather radar images, satellite pictures, winds, and forecast maps. During flight, pilots can access in-cockpit weather displays, as well as, handheld portable weather devices. Despite the increasing advancement and accessibility of weather displays, there is limited research addressing the interpretability of both in-cockpit and preflight weather displays. This is particularly concerning considering that preflight planning and poor product interpretability have been cited as possible contributing factors for GA weather …

Usability Analysis Of Convective Sigmets, Jackie Mcsorley, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

• Introduction
• Methods
• Results

○ Interface Analysis: System Usability Scale

○ Workload Analysis: NASA-TLX

• Discussion
• Current Investigations

Preflight Weather Worksheet, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Weather Training Modules

Preflight Weather Worksheet

• Big Picture
• Hazards
• Visibility

A New Model For Lifting Condensation Levels Estimation, Nihad E. Daidzic Ph.D., Sc.D.

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Knowledge of and the ability to predict lifting condensation levels (LCL) is important ingredient in weather predictions, cloud formation, planetary albedo and Earth’s energy balance. It is also essential topic in aviation safety and flight operations. In this article, we derive a new model of LCL and compare it to some older commonly-used models. This includes also the recently published Romps’ (2017) model. The new model presented here includes dependence, however weak, of the surface atmospheric pressure and the specific humidity on the LCL height and temperature. Such is not the case with widely used models and expressions by Espy …

Adding Value To Numerical Weather Predictions For The Aviation Industry In South Africa., Quinton Jacobs Mr., Willem A. Landman Prof.

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

The main objective of this study is to determine whether human forecasters at the main airports of South Africa add value to the raw numerical weather prediction model output when they provide forecast services to the aviation industry. Dataset pairs of weather observations made at these airports and terminal aerodrome forecasts are constructed for three forecast systems: the human forecasters, persistence forecast and the raw output from the 12 km resolution Unified Model administered by the South African Weather Service. These three dataset pairs are independently evaluated by a forecast verification system developed at the South African Weather Service. A …

On Atmospheric Lapse Rates, Nihad E. Daidzic

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

We have derived and summarized and most important atmospheric temperature lapse rates. ALRs essentially govern vertical atmospheric air stability and creation of some cloud types. The sensitivity analysis of various atmospheric lapse rates and their dependence on actual ideal-gas air properties and gravitational attraction was conducted for the first time to the best of our knowledge. SALR, which has DALR as the upper asymptote, showed steepest decrease at around 9 degrees Celsius then flattening out and apparently approaching another asymptotic solution which has not been investigated as it falls outside of the terrestrial temperature range. ISA lapse rates are adopted …

Interpreting Aviation Weather Products: Follow-Up Study With Aopa Members, Beth Blickensderfer, Thomas A. Guinn, Thomas Bob, Jayde King, Yolanda Ortiz, Nick Defilippis, Quirijn Berendschot, Jacqueline Mcsorley

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

Purpose

• Use the questions we developed in Phase I
• Include pilots that are more representative of GA (age, flight hours/experience); Collaborate with AOPA
• Examine: Knowledge about aviation weather products; Differences between levels of flight certificate and/or ratings

Assessing Ga Pilots' Preflight Weather Planning Mental Models, Yolanda Ortiz, Beth Blickensderfer, Thomas A. Guinn

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

Purpose, To assess GA Pilots' ability to:

• Obtain the Appropriate Weather Information
• Interpret the Data
• Apply the Information to a Given Flight Route

Aviation Weather Education: Challenges Using Current Faa Guidance, Thomas A. Guinn, Robert Thomas

Aviation Weather Training Research

Observed Challenges

• Incorrect product information
• Guidance not keeping pace with new products
• Multiple formats of same product
• Potentially unnecessary information
• Missing product information
• Limited focus on interpretation

Challenges For Flight Instructors Teaching Weather Information, Robert Thomas, Thomas A. Guinn

Aviation Weather Training Research

• Flight Instructors face a challenge when teaching/learning weather information
• Multiple overlapping resources for aviation weather
• AC takes longer timeframe to update –problem for quick updates of information

A Diagnostic Metric For Predicting Tropical Cyclone And Mid-Latitude Floods, Jonathon Klepatzki, Shawn M. Milrad

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

This study details a dynamic and thermodynamic metric (i.e., Extreme Flood Index [EFI]) designed to diagnose the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events associated with stagnant mid-latitude flow patterns (i.e., Rex blocks). As the global climate warms, rapid Arctic warming may be helping to slow the mid-latitude westerly jet stream, resulting in increased mid-latitude flow stagnation. The combination of long-duration ascent associated with easterly winds and warm moist air increases the severity of extreme precipitation events; as such, the EFI is specifically designed to detect this potent combination of ingredients. In 2013, a Rex block stalled a low-pressure system …

The General Aviation Pilot Preflight Weather Planning: Weather Products Usability & Limitations, Jayde King, Yolanda Ortiz, Nicholas Defilippis, Thomas A. Guinn, Beth Blickensderfer, Thomas Robert

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

Over the last 30 years, a large percentage of weather-related aviation accidents have occurred under General Aviation (GA) operations (FAA, 2010; Fultz & Ashley, 2016; AOPA, 2008).

• Novice Private Pilots VFR into IMC
• High Risk For Incurring Fatality

Aviation Weather Challenges

1. Difficult to interpret Aviation Weather Products
2. Pilot's Decision Making Biases and Errors
3. GA Pilots' Lack of Aviation Weather Experience

Quantitative Examination And Comparison Of Altimetry Rules-Of-Thumb For General Aviation, Thomas A. Guinn

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

General aviation rules of thumb (ROTs) for density altitude and true altitude are examined and developed. Both ROTs originate from the same basic principle of hydrostatic balance, but differ significantly in the assumptions made regarding the atmospheric temperature profile. While the ROT for DA assumes a standard atmospheric vertical temperature lapse rate, the ROT for true altitude requires information regarding the observed layer-mean temperature of the atmosphere. Since the layer-mean temperature between the aircraft and the surface is typically unknown, it must be inferred from the temperature at a single level by again assuming a linear lapse rate. This method …

The Extratropical Transition Of Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Cyclonic Evolution And Direct Impacts, Clark Evans, Kimberly M. Wood, Sim D. Aberson, Heather M. Archambault, Shawn M. Milrad, Lance F. Bosart, Et Al.

Publications

Extratropical transition (ET) is the process by which a tropical cyclone, upon encountering a baroclinic environment and reduced sea surface temperature at higher latitudes, transforms into an extratropical cyclone. This process is influenced by, and influences, phenomena from the tropics to the midlatitudes and from the meso- to the planetary scales to extents that vary between individual events. Motivated in part by recent high-impact and/or extensively observed events such as North Atlantic Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and western North Pacific Typhoon Sinlaku in 2008, this review details advances in understanding and predicting ET since the publication of an earlier review …

The Capabilities Of The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (Goes-16), Brandon M. Kane

Student Works

This report investigates the capability of the new Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) satellite to display 16 channels of the electromagnetic spectrum, to produce images at a higher resolution at increased intervals, and to detect and display lightning. This report also discusses the main instrumentation aboard the new geostationary satellite and how it aids in creating accurate data collection, which in turn, produces quicker weather forecasts and warnings. The 16 different channels produced by the Advanced Baseline Imager aboard the new satellite are analyzed in detail as to the functions and wavelengths on which the channels operate. The image resolution …

Mobile Radar As An Undergraduate Education And Research Tool: The Erau C-Breese Field Experience With The Doppler On Wheels, Shawn M. Milrad, Christopher G. Herbster

Publications

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Convective-Boundary Research Engaging Educational Student Experiences (ERAU C-BREESE) was an 18-day National Science Foundation (NSF)-funded educational Doppler on Wheels (DOW) deployment through the Center for Severe Weather Research in May 2015. ERAU C-BREESE had three primary areas of focus: meteorological field observations and research, undergraduate experiential learning, and local community outreach. ERAU undergraduate meteorology students had the unique opportunity to forecast for, collect, and analyze field measurements of sea-breeze processes and convection. The scientific objectives of ERAU C-BREESE were to forecast, observe, and analyze central Florida sea-breeze processes and thunderstorms by combining a DOW with more traditional …

Effects Of Graphical Weather Information Versus Textual Weather Information On Situation Awareness In Meteorology, Stefan Melendez M.S.A., Andrew Dattel Ph.D., Christopher Herbster Ph.D., Debbie Schaum M.A., Andrey Babin

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

Prior to a flight, pilots gather meteorological information in order to assess the weather conditions pertaining to their flight and to make decisions based on it. This information can come in various formats, such as text and graphical weather information. Research has shown that people have varying learning preferences and that most people prefer visual learning to verbal learning (i.e., graphical over text). It is hypothesized that this difference in learning preference can affect the way pilots interpret and apply the information they obtain prior to their flight. The researcher hypothesizes that graphical weather information has a greater, more positive …

Investigation Of The 2013 Alberta Flood From Weather And Climate Perspectives, Bernardo Teufel, G. T. Diro, K. Whan, S. M. Milrad, Et Al.

Publications

During 19–21 June 2013 a heavy precipitation event affected southern Alberta and adjoining regions, leading to severe flood damage in numerous communities and resulting in the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. This flood was caused by a combination of meteorological and hydrological factors, which are investigated from weather and climate perspectives with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model. Results show that the contribution of orographic ascent to precipitation was important, exceeding 30% over the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. Another contributing factor was evapotranspiration from the land surface, which is found to have acted as an important moisture …

Effects Of Graphical Weather Information Versus Textual Weather Information On Situation Awareness In Meteorology, Stefan Melendez

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Prior to a flight, pilots gather meteorological information to assess the weather conditions pertaining to their flight and to make decisions based on it. This information can come in various formats, such as text and graphical weather information. Research has shown that people have varying learning preferences and that most people prefer visual learning to verbal learning (i.e., graphical over text). It is hypothesized that this difference in learning preference can affect the way pilots interpret and apply the information they obtain prior to their flight. The researcher hypothesizes that graphical weather information has a greater, more positive impact on …

Cirrus Cloud Microphysics Over Darwin, Australia, Dorothea Ivanova, Matthew Johnson

Publications

Ice clouds, crucial to the understanding of both short - and long - term climate trends, are poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). Cirrus clouds, one of the largest uncertainties in the global radiation budget, have been inadequately studied at low latitudes. Parameterizations exist for mid - latitude and tropical cirrus ( Ivanova et al. 2001; McFarquhar et al. 1997). Due to climate sensitivity in the GCM with respect to cloud input, without robust parameterizations of cirrus clouds, the GCM is inaccurate over most output fields, including radiative forcing, temperature, albedo, and heat flux (Yao and Del Genio 1999). …

Wiggle 3d Displays Of Weather Data, Frederick R. Mosher

Publications

Weather is a time varying 3-dimensional phenomena, but the displays of weather data are inherently 2-dimensional. Since weather phenomena at one level can impact the weather at another level, it would be desirable to view weather on a 3D volume type of display. Initially weather displays were on paper and currently weather information is displayed on computer screens. The human mind can interpret 3D volume information in a number of ways. Having two eyes, the brain can detect the parallax differences between the images for the left eye being slightly different from the right eye. Objects that are closer to …

Forecasting The Air Race Classic: Lessons In Interdisciplinary Aviation Weather Support And Decision-Making, Shawn M. Milrad, Debbie Schaum

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

The Air Race Classic (ARC) is an all-female Visual Flight Rules air race held each June. Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Daytona Beach (ERAU-DB) has had primarily student race teams participate and frequently place strongly in the ARC since 1996. The ERAU-DB Meteorology Program has provided successful weather support to ERAU-DB race team(s) for the past decade, including as the terminus host institution in 2016. In 2014, the weather support was formalized as a three-credit interdisciplinary summer course, incorporating a mix of aeronautical science (pilot), dispatch, and meteorology students. Using concepts of service and experiential learning, the ARC course has successfully integrated …

Broadening Traditional Aviation Meteorology Education To Support Spaceflight Operations, Thomas A. Guinn, Nicholas J. Stapleton, Katherine A. Winters, Bradley M. Muller, Debbie M. Schaum

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

The purpose of this paper is to examine the expansion of traditional aviation meteorology education necessary to support the growing commercial space-operations industry. While spaceflight meteorological considerations do overlap with those of traditional aviation operations, there are notable differences schools must address for appropriate education and training of both meteorologists and operators. These include knowledge of increased weather sensitivities, space-weather impacts, triggered lightning, triboelectrification, and high-resolution vertical wind-profile analyses. An added challenge in the educational process is the more limited amount of publicly available weather and space-weather products necessary to support spaceflight education. Furthermore, in comparison with traditional aviation meteorology, …

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite- R Series (Goes-R) 2016, Paige N. Dixon

Student Works

This is a report on the first NOAA GOES-R satellite, launched on November 19th, 2016. This report will cover some of the details of the GOES-R project, as well as discuss the collaborations that made the project possible. This document will also detail some of the new satellite’s capabilities including geostationary lightning detection, and space weather monitoring, and will focus on real-world application of such technology. Additionally, this report will list some of the current and projected GOES-R products, and the potential benefits if testing proves successful.