Climate Commons^™

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- July 2018, Natalie Umphlett, Emily Brown, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

GRAINEX project......................2

Product highlights..................3

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

GIS Portal....................................4

Regional news..........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Droughtscape, Summer 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the director

Drought expands and intensifies

Dry down fuels fires

Tweeting #drought18

MOISST and NSMN

Caribbean planning progress

Drought observer network study

MENA teams report progress

NDMC global outreach

Climate hub workshop

On the horizon

Estimating Live Fuel Moisture In Southern California Using Remote Sensing Vegetation Water Content Proxies, Shenyue Jia, Seung Hee Kim, Son V. Nghiem, Wonhee Cho, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Wildfires are a major ecological disturbance in Southern California and often lead to great destruction along the Wildland-Urban Interface. Live fuel moisture has been used as an important indicator of wildfire risk in measurements of vegetation water content. However, the limited field measurements of live fuel moisture in both time and space have affected the accuracy of wildfire risk estimations. Traditional estimation of live fuel moisture using remote sensing data was based on vegetation indices, indirect proxies of vegetation water content and subject to influence from weather conditions. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of estimating live fuel moisture …

Development Of The Nebraska Department Of Transportation Winter Severity Index, Mark R. Anderson, Behzad Esmaeili, Curtis L. Walker, Dylan Steinkruger, Sogand Hasanzadeh, Pouya Gholizadeh, Bac Dao

Nebraska Department of Transportation: Research Reports

Adverse weather conditions are responsible for millions of vehicular crashes, thousands of vehicular deaths and billions of dollars in economic and congestion costs. Many transportation agencies utilize a performance or mobility metric to assess how well they are maintaining road access. This research focuses on the development of a winter severity index for the State of Nebraska (NEWINS). NEWINS is an event-driven index that was derived for the Nebraska Department of Transportation (NDOT) and its districts across the state. The NEWINS framework includes a categorical storm classification framework and climatological aspect to capture atmospheric conditions more accurately across the diverse …

Madden-Julian Oscillation Relationships With Cool Season Cyclogenesis, Daily Precipitation, And Cool Season Severe Weather Frequencies In The Gulf Of Mexico Region, Stephen Paul Caparotta

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Tropical cyclone variability in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) has been the focus of a considerable amount of research. Variability on both interannual scales, related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and on subseasonal scales, related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), is well documented. By contrast, very little research exists on the relationships between the MJO and cool season, non-tropical cyclones in the GoM.

The MJO influence on cool season (October-March) cyclogenesis in the GoM variability is explored here. Additionally, daily precipitation variability and cool season severe weather variability is examined for areas near and just inland of the GoM. …

Large Scale Climate Oscillation Impacts On Temperature, Precipitation And Land Surface Phenology In Central Asia, Kirsten M. De Beurs, Geoffrey Henebry, Braden C. Owsley, Irina N. Sokolik

GSCE Faculty Publications

Central Asia has been rapidly changing in multiple ways over the past few decades. Increases in temperature and likely decreases in precipitation in Central Asia as the result of global climate change are making one of the most arid regions in the world even more susceptible to large-scale droughts. Global climate oscillations, such as the El Ni ̃no–Southern Oscillation, have previously been linked to observed weather patterns in Central Asia. However, until now it has been unclear how the different climate oscillations act simultaneously to affect the weather and subsequently the vegetated land surface in Central Asia.We fit well-established land …

Odu, City Of Norfolk To Host Neighbors Building Neighborhoods Conference June 23, Noell Saunders

News Items

No abstract provided.

Tracking Drought Perspectives: A Rural Case Study Of Transformations Following An Invisible Hazard, Theresa Jedd, Deborah Bathke, Duane Gill, Bimal Paul, Nicole Wall, Tonya Bernadt, Jacob Peter, Anthony Mucia, Milan Wall

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Rural towns are especially susceptible to the effects of drought because their economies are dependent on natural resources. However, they are also resilient in many ways to natural hazards because they are rich in civic engagement and social capital. Because of the diverse nature of drought’s impacts, understanding its complex dynamics and its effects requires a multidisciplinary approach. To study these dynamics, this research combines appreciative inquiry, the Community Capitals Framework, and a range of climatological monitoring data to assess the 2012–14 Great Plains drought’s effect on McCook, Nebraska. Community coping measures, such as water-use reduction and public health programs, …

Protecting Energy Infrastructure Against The Uncertainty Of Future Climate Change: A Real Options Approach, Thomas Prime, Karyn Morrissey, Jennifer M. Brown, Andrew J. Plater

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

The coastal impacts of climate change, including flooding and erosion due to storms and sea-level rise, and the possible adaptation responses have been studied using very different approaches; from very detailed site-specific, process-based investigations and interventions to global macroeconomic assessments of coastal zone vulnerability. This paper presents a flood defense real option analysis methodology that values potential investment decisions made in the building and maintaining of flood defenses around electricity infrastructure at local spatial scales for a large region. Real option analysis embraces uncertainty in future climate conditions and flexibility in the management of investment projects to produce a more …

Weather And Climate Summary And Forecast: June 2018 Report, Gregory V. Jones

Linfield University Wine Studies Reports

This report provides a summary of the weather and climate forecast for June 2018. It includes forecast information specific to the Pacific Northwest and the western United States, as well as forecast information for other portions of the United States and abroad.

Umphlett Qci June 2018, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature Anomalies

Precipitation Anomalies

Water Resources

Agriculture

Temperature

Precipitation

Odu, Mit Solve And Rise Co-Host Workshop For Local Entrepreneurs Focused On Coastal Resilience Solutions, Betsy Hnath

News Items

No abstract provided.

2018 June - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

A Novel Multiproxy Approach To Reconstructing Sea Surface Temperature In The Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico, Marissa Anne Vara

LSU Master's Theses

Coral Sr/Ca is a widely-used proxy for sea surface temperature (SST); however, discrepancies in the coral Sr/Ca-SST relationship among colonies of the same species makes uncertainty in absolute temperature reconstructions larger than the climate signal yet climate variability studies are possible. Furthermore, the riverine input of terrestrial carbonate weathering products to the coastal waters can disrupt the coral Sr/Ca-SST signal by changing local seawater chemistry. This study evaluates the fidelity and reproducibly of coral SST proxies (Sr/Ca, Li/Ca, Mg/Li, Sr-U, Mg/Ca, and U/Ca) and a riverine-upwelling proxy (Ba/Ca) in four Orbicella faveolata colonies in two reefs offshore from Veracruz, Mexico …

Balancing Tradeoffs: Reconciling Multiple Environmental Goals When Ecosystem Services Vary Regionally, Christine S. O'Connell, Kimberly M. Carlson, Santiago Cuadra, Kenneth J. Feeley, James Gerber, Paul C. West, Stephen Polasky

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

As the planet’s dominant land use, agriculture often competes with the preservation of natural systems that provide globally and regionally important ecosystem services. How agriculture impacts ecosystem service delivery varies regionally, among services being considered, and across spatial scales. Here, we assess the tradeoffs between four ecosystem services—agricultural production, carbon storage, biophysical climate regulation, and biodiversity—using as a case study the Amazon, an active frontier of agricultural expansion. We find that the highest values for each of the ecosystem services are concentrated in different regions. Agricultural production potential and carbon storage are highest in the north and west, biodiversity greatest …

Changing Snow Seasonality In The Highlands Of Kyrgyzstan, Monika Tomaszewska, Geoffrey Henebry

GSCE Faculty Publications

Few studies have examined changing snow seasonality in Central Asia. Here, we analyzed changes in the seasonality of snow cover across Kyrgyzstan (KGZ) over 14 years from 2002/03–2015/16 using the most recent version (v006) of MODIS Terra and Aqua 8 day snow cover composites (MOD10A2/MYD10A2). We focused on three metrics of snow seasonality—first date of snow, last date of snow, and duration of snow season—and used nonparametric trends tests to assess the significance and direction of trends. We evaluated trends at three administration scales and across elevation. We used two techniques to assure that our identification of significant trends was …

Smap Soil Moisture Change As An Indicator Of Drought Conditions, Rajasekaran Eswar, Narendra N. Das, Calvin Christian Poulsen, Ali Behrangi, John Swigart, Mark D. Svoboda, Dara Entekhabi, Simon Yueh, Bradley Doorn, Jared Entin

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Soil moisture is considered a key variable in drought analysis. The soil moisture dynamics given by the change in soil moisture between two time periods can provide information on the intensification or improvement of drought conditions. The aim of this work is to analyze how the soil moisture dynamics respond to changes in drought conditions over multiple time intervals. The change in soil moisture estimated from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite observations was compared with the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The results indicated that the …

A Diagnostic Metric For Predicting Tropical Cyclone And Mid-Latitude Floods, Jonathon Klepatzki, Shawn M. Milrad

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

This study details a dynamic and thermodynamic metric (i.e., Extreme Flood Index [EFI]) designed to diagnose the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events associated with stagnant mid-latitude flow patterns (i.e., Rex blocks). As the global climate warms, rapid Arctic warming may be helping to slow the mid-latitude westerly jet stream, resulting in increased mid-latitude flow stagnation. The combination of long-duration ascent associated with easterly winds and warm moist air increases the severity of extreme precipitation events; as such, the EFI is specifically designed to detect this potent combination of ingredients. In 2013, a Rex block stalled a low-pressure system …

Holocene Climate Evolution Of Continental Western Eurasia Constrained By Stable-Isotope And Cation Geochemistry Of U-Th-Dated Speleothems And Meteogenic Travertine, Jonathan Lloyd Baker

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Reliable reconstructions of global and regional climate during the Holocene (11,700 years ago to present) are vital to constraining the natural range of climate variability and testing state-of-the-art models, which seek to forecast the near- and long-term impact of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. Much of continental Eurasia is still underrepresented, however, in geological proxy reconstructions of Holocene climate variability, and the vast majority of paleoclimate data only reflect conditions during peak summer months (JJA) or the growing season. The paucity of winter proxy data has therefore been cited as a possible explanation for the current mismatch between geological proxy-based and climate-model …

Developing A Framework To Identify Local Business And Government Vulnerability To Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study Of Coastal Virginia, Sarah L. Stafford, Alexander D. Renaud

May 11, 2018: Adaptation Policy

In this paper we develop methods for identifying local business and government vulnerabilities to sea-level rise and the natural hazards associated with it. Unlike the fairly large literature on measuring social vulnerability to natural hazards, there are very few papers that discuss methods for measuring local business or local government vulnerability even though businesses and governments are also differentially affected natural hazards. Our goal is to create measures that are easily replicable using readily available data and that are easy to explain to local planners, policy makers, and citizens. We implement our measures of local business and government vulnerability for …

Climate Communication Through A Community Perspective, Kathryn Mcgee

Senior Honors Projects, 2010-2019

This project utilized psychology and science communication strategies to develop creative, locally framed climate change messaging. Through an online survey of 300 Gloucester County, VA residents, community themes of place attachment, environmental connection, risk assessment and climate change acceptance were recorded. Using the results from the survey I created a website, https://guidinggloucester.wixsite.com/home, which serves as an avenue for communicating with Gloucester residents. The website displays the results of the survey, explains climate change information that is relevant to Gloucester County, and gives examples of local actions to help increase engagement in climate solutions. In addition to the website, I …

Weather And Climate Summary And Forecast: May 2018 Report, Gregory V. Jones

Linfield University Wine Studies Reports

This report provides a summary of the weather and climate forecast for May 2018. It includes forecast information specific to the Pacific Northwest and the western United States, as well as forecast information for other portions of the United States and abroad.

Adam J. Liska: Curriculum Vitae, Adam Liska

Adam Liska Papers

Associate Professor, George Dempster Smith Chair of Industrial Ecology, Departments of Biological Systems Engineering and Agronomy & Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln 236 L.W. Chase Hall, Lincoln, NE 68583-0726, Ph: (402) 472-8744, e-mail: [email protected]

Ph.D. 2003 Biology (magna cum laude), Max Planck Institute of Molecular Cell Biology & Genetics, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany

Regional Stratigraphy And Distribution Of The Coastal Group, St. Elizabeth Parish, Southwestern Jamaica, Brett M. Kenning

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

This contribution examines the characteristics and ages of sedimentary units in the Coastal Group located along the southwestern Jamaica coast between Great Pedro Bluff and Fort Charles Bay in southwestern St. Elizabeth Parish. The coastline is characterized by laterally discontinuous low cliff exposures, separated by modern beach deposits and tectonically raised shore platforms composed of the White Limestone Group (mid-Eocene to mid-Miocene) and coral rudstone to floatstone and calcareous sandstone of the Coastal Group (late Pleistocene). Electron-Spin Resonance spectroscopy conducted on corals collected from a coral rudstone to floatstone facies yielded an estimated age of 120 ka. The coral facies …

Light Availability And Phytoplankton Growth Beneath Arctic Sea Ice: Integrating Observations And Modeling, Victoria J. Hill, Bonnie Light, Michael Steele, Richard C. Zimmerman

OES Faculty Publications

Observations of the seasonal light field in the upper Arctic Ocean are critical to understanding the impacts of changing Arctic ice conditions on phytoplankton growth in the water column. Here we discuss data from a new sensor system, deployed in seasonal ice cover north‐east of Utqiaġvik, Alaska in March 2014. The system was designed to provide observations of light and phytoplankton biomass in the water column during the formation of surface melt ponds and the transition from ice to open water. Hourly observations of downwelling irradiance beneath the ice (at 2.9, 6.9, and 17.9 m depths) and phytoplankton biomass (at …

Thermal Removal Of Carbon Dioxide From The Atmosphere: Energy Requirements And Scaling Issues, Ted Von Hippel

Publications

I conduct a systems-level study of direct air capture of CO2 using techniques from thermal physics. This system relies on a combination of an efficient heat exchanger, radiative cooling, and refrigeration, all at industrial scale and operated in environments at low ambient temperatures. While technological developments will be required for such a system to operate efficiently, those developments rest on a long history of refrigeration expertise and technology, and they can be developed and tested at modest scale. I estimate that the energy required to remove CO2 via this approach is comparable to direct air capture by other techniques. The …

2018 May - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

A Geospatial Study Of The Drought Impact On Surface Water Reservoirs: Study Cases From Texas And California, Zachary Asbury

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Drought in Texas and California has been a long-term problem. Over the past 60 years reservoir construction has occurred to remedy the situation. Satellite imagery has been used historically to measure and monitor fluctuations in surface water reservoirs. This investigation integrates remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) technologies to study the impact of drought on selected surface water reservoirs in San Angelo and Dallas in Texas, and Lake Oroville in California. Expansion and shrinkage over the 2005-2016 period reveal the concrete impact that drought, along with other factors, have on the selected lakes. Fluctuations in reservoir sizes during summer …

An Analysis Of Urban Heat Islands In Kentucky, Logan Mitchell

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

The purpose of this research is to increase understanding of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in Kentucky by studying its three largest cities: Louisville, Lexington, and Bowling Green. By examining the UHIs of these three cities, two major attributes can be determined: if there is a relationship between the size of the city by population and the UHI magnitude, and if UHI magnitude follows any diurnal and/or seasonal cycles. Data was collected from weather stations within the three major cities, as well as from weather stations located in the rural areas surrounding them. The length of the time series …

Regional Trends In Early-Monsoon Rainfall Over Vietnam And Ccsm4 Attribution, Rong Li, S.-Y. Simon Wang, Robert R. Gillies, Brendan Buckley, Jin-Ho Yoon, Changrae Cho

Plants, Soils, and Climate Faculty Publications

The analysis of precipitation trends for Vietnam revealed that early-monsoon precipitation has increased over the past three decades but to varying degrees over the northern, central and southern portions of the country. Upon investigation, it was found that the change in early-monsoon precipitation is associated with changes in the low-level cyclonic airflow over the South China Sea and Indochina that is embedded in the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with a “La Niña-like” anomalous sea surface temperature pattern with warming in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and cooling in the eastern Pacific. The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) …