Climate Commons^™

Droughtscape, Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter

2016: Year in review

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders

Tech pass-off in Tunisia

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts/p>

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech

Upper Water Structure And Mixed Layer Depth In Tropical Waters: The Seats Station In The Northern South China Sea, Jen-Hua Tai, George T. F. Wong, Xiaoju Pan

OES Faculty Publications

The variability of the upper water hydrographic structure, the efficacy of the different schemes for estimating the mixed layer depth (MLD), the inter-comparability estimation of the MLDs and diurnal and intra-annual MLD climatology in the tropical waters in the northern South China Sea were accessed in 702 depth-profiles of potential temperature (θ) and salinity collected in 64 cruises between 17.5 and 18.5°N and 115.3 and 116.3°E from 1997 to 2013. The hydrographic structure may be subdivided into three principal types: the classical type, with quasi-isopycnal surface mixed layer followed by an abrupt increase in the depth-gradient in θ and potential …

Influence Of Topography And Moisture And Nutrient Availability On Green Alder Function On The Low Arctic Tundra, Nt, Katherine Louise Black Ms., Jennifer Lynn Baltzer Dr.

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

The Arctic has warmed by at least 3^°C over the past 50 years and this rapid warming is expected to continue. Climate warming is driving the proliferation of shrubs across the tundra biome with implications for energy balance, climate, hydrology, nutrient cycling, and biodiversity. Changes in tundra plant water use attributable to shrub expansion are predicted to increase evapotranspirative water loss which may amplify local warming and reduce run-off. However, little is known about the extent to which shrubs will enhance evapotranspirative water loss in these systems. Direct measures of shrub water use are needed to accurately predict …

Developing A Hydrological Monitoring Program For Ponds In Wapusk National Park, Manitoba, Using Water Isotope Tracers, Stephanie Roy

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Northern lake-rich landscapes are vulnerable to increases in surface air temperatures and are changing in dynamic ways. Current meteorological records indicate that some of the greatest warming in the past century has occurred in the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL). As the HBL is an extensive wetland consisting of hundreds of thousands of shallow lakes and ponds, it is difficult to anticipate the long-term implications that climate change will have on pond water balance. To develop and implement long-term monitoring of hydrological conditions, sampling of pond water isotope composition has occurred during the past six years in Wapusk National Park (WNP), …

Changes In Arctic Climate And Central U.S. Weather Patterns Is There A Link?, Donald A. Wilhite, Kimberly C. Morrow, Martha Shulski

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Earlier snowmelt, decreasing soil moisture, decreased corn yields, increasing extreme precipitation events—these are some of the weather effects currently observed in the central United States that might well have their origin in the rapidly warming Arctic. These and other implications of Arctic warming were among the topics discussed at a fall 2015 workshop, Implications of a Changing Arctic on Water Resources and Agriculture in the Central U.S (Wilhite and Morrow 2016).

The United States assumed chairmanship of the Arctic Council in April 2015, making the workshop topic timely. Given the importance of the Midwest and Great Plains region as a …

Evaluation Of Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates And Application To Monitor Meteorological Drought For The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Yared Bayissa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Getachew B. Demisse, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a recurring phenomenon in Ethiopia that significantly impacts the socioeconomic sector and various components of the environment. The overarching goal of this study is to assess the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological drought using a satellite-derived rainfall product for the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBN). The satellite rainfall product used in this study was selected through evaluation of five high-resolution products (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) v2.0, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), African Rainfall Climatology and Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Africa Rainfall Estimate …

Effects Of Sea Level Rise On Hydrology: Case Study In A Typical Mid-Atlantic Coastal Watershed, Xixi Wang, Rui Li, Homa Jalaeian Taghadomi, Shohreh Pedram, Xiao Zhao

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Sea level rise (SLR) can negatively affect the hydrology of coastal watersheds. However, the relevant information is incomplete and insufficient in existing literature. The objective of this study is to present a modeling approach to predict long-term effects of SLR on changes of flood peak, flood stage, and groundwater table with an assumption that the historical climate would reoccur in the future. The study was conducted for a typical coastal watershed in southeast USA. The results indicate that sea level had been rising at a rate of 4.21 mm yr⁻¹ from 1948 to 1982 but at a faster rate …

Climate Change Adaptation For Southern California Groundwater Managers: A Case Study Of The Six Basins Aquifer, Frank Lyles

Pomona Senior Theses

Groundwater has been very important to the economic development of Southern California, and will continue to be a crucial resource in the 21st century. However, Climate Change threatens to disrupt many of the physical and economic processes that control the flow of water in and out of aquifers. One groundwater manager, the Six Basins Watermaster in eastern Los Angeles and western San Bernardino Counties, has developed a long-term planning document called the Strategic Plan that mostly fails to address the implications of Climate Change, especially for local water supplies. This thesis presents an in-depth analysis of the Six Basin Watermaster’s …

Water–Soil–Vegetation Dynamic Interactions In Changing Climate, Xixi Wang, Xuefeng Chu, Tingxi Liu, Xiangju Cheng, Rich Whittecar

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Previous studies of land degradation, topsoil erosion, and hydrologic alteration typically focus on these subjects individually, missing important interrelationships among these important aspects of the Earth's system. However, an understanding of water–soil–vegetation dynamic interactions is needed to develop practical and effective solutions to sustain the globe's eco-environment and grassland agriculture, which depends on grasses, legumes, and other fodder or soil-building crops. This special issue is intended to be a platform for a discussion of the relevant scientific findings based on experimental and/or modeling studies. Its 12 peer-reviewed articles present data, novel analysis/modeling approaches, and convincing results of water–soil–vegetation interactions under …

Spatial Patterns Of Sea Level Variability Associated With Natural Internal Climate Modes, Weiqing Han, Gerald A. Meehl, Detlef Stammer, Aixue Hu, Benjamin Hamlington, Jessica Kenigson, Hindumathi Palanisamy, Philip Thompson

OES Faculty Publications

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2016, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Large Fires Impact Region

Heavy Rains Bring Flooding to Montana

Isolated Impacts to Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Exploring The Potential Impacts Of Climate Change On North America's Laurentian Great Lakes Tourism Sector, Natalie Chin

Open Access Dissertations

Climate change is one of the major challenges facing the global hospitality and tourism sector in the coming century and, given the important role that weather and climate play in all aspects of the tourism experience, tourism businesses owners need to start thinking about and enacting climate change adaptation strategies now. This work has utilized a combination of social science and physical science methods to (1) understand how the Great Lakes tourism sector could be impacted by climate change and (2) provide some insights into how researchers can help business owners prepare for these potential impacts. Overall, the results of …

An Examination Of Geographic Patterns Of Soil Climate And Its Classification In The U.S. System Of Soil Taxonomy, Hans Edwin Winzeler

Open Access Dissertations

Soil climate, the record of temporal patterns of soil moisture and temperature, is an important component of the structure of U.S. Soil Taxonomy. The U.S. Soil Survey has used the Newhall Simulation Model (NSM) for estimating soil climate from atmospheric climate records at weather stations since the 1970s. The current soil climate map of the U.S. was published in 1994 by using NSM runs from selected weather stations along with knowledge-based hand-drawn mapping procedures. We developed a revised soil climate mapping methodology using the NSM and digital soil mapping techniques.

The new methodology is called Grid Element Newhall Simulation Model …

Analyses Of Streamflow Change Patterns And Correlation Of These Changes With Sea-Surface Temperature Fluctuations, Kazi Ali Tamaddun

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

This thesis presents a comprehensive statistical analysis that determines the direction, rate, and interval of significant streamflow change patterns in the continental U.S. and correlates these changes with sea-surface temperature fluctuations. First, by using two non-parametric tests, namely, the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Pettitt’s test, the presence of long-term trends and abrupt shifts were determined at 10% significance level over continuously adjustable periods that stretched from 1903 to 2012. Modified versions of the tests were applied to account for the presence of persistence (autocorrelation) in data. Theil-Sen slope was determined to evaluate the rate of change across multiple temporal …

Teleconnections In Steam: Antarctic Field-Camp Art, Craig Stevens, Gabby O'Connor

The Transdisciplinary STEAM+ Journal

We describe a component of a multi-element STEAM collaboration looking to explore ideas around the life cycle of Antarctic sea ice. One of the intermediate phases of the work involved the scientist deploying partially pre-made art components. Results were modulated by weather and operational constraints and generated a sequence of images and recordings as well as greater understanding of the creative collaboration process.

Coupled Impacts Of Climate And Land Use Change Across A River–Lake Continuum: Insights From An Integrated Assessment Model Of Lake Champlain’S Missisquoi Basin, 2000–2040, Asim Zia, Arne Bomblies, Andrew W. Schroth, Christopher Koliba, Peter D.F. Isles, Yushiou Tsai, Ibrahim N. Mohammed, Gabriela Bucini, Patrick J. Clemins, Scott Turnbull, Morgan Rodgers, Ahmed Hamed, Brian Beckage, Jonathan Winter, Carol Adair, Gillian L. Galford, Donna Rizzo, Judith Van Houten

Dartmouth Scholarship

Global climate change (GCC) is projected to bring higher-intensity precipitation and higher- variability temperature regimes to the Northeastern United States. The interactive effects of GCC with anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are unknown for watershed level hydrological dynamics and nutrient fluxes to freshwater lakes. Increased nutrient fluxes can promote harmful algal blooms, also exacerbated by warmer water temperatures due to GCC. To address the complex interactions of climate, land and humans, we developed a cascading integrated assessment model to test the impacts of GCC and LULCC on the hydrological regime, water temperature, water quality, bloom duration and …

Holocene Glacial Activity In Barilari Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula, Tracked By Magnetic Mineral Assemblages: Linking Ice, Ocean, And Atmosphere, Brendan Reilly, Carl Natter, Stefanie A. Brachfeld

Department of Earth and Environmental Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

We investigate the origin and fate of lithogenic sediments using magnetic mineral assemblages in Barilari Bay, west Antarctic Peninsula (AP) from sediment cores recovered during the Larsen Ice Shelf System, Antarctica (LARISSA) NBP10-01 cruise. To quantify and reconstruct Holocene changes in covarying magnetic mineral assemblages, we adopt an unsupervised mathematical unmixing strategy and apply it to measurements of magnetic susceptibility as a function of increasing temperature. Comparisons of the unmixed end-members with magnetic observations of northwestern AP bedrock and the spatial distribution of magnetic mineral assemblages within the fjord, allow us to identify source regions, including signatures for ‘‘inner bay,’’ …

An Early Paleogene Palynological Assemblage From The Sabrina Coast, East Antarctica: New Species And Implications For Depositional History, Catherine Davies Smith

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Palynological analyses of 13 samples from two sediment cores retrieved from the Sabrina Coast, East Antarctica, provide the first information regarding the paleovegetation within the Aurora Subglacial Basin. The assemblages, hereafter referred to as the Sabrina Flora, are dominated by angiosperms, with complexes of Gambierina (G.) rudata and G. edwardsii representing 38–66% of the assemblage and an abundant and diverse Proteaceae component. The Sabrina Flora also includes Battenipollis sectilis, Forcipites sp. and Nothofagidites spp. (mostly belonging to the N. cf. rocaensis-flemingii complex), along with a few fern spores, including Laevigatosporites ovatus, a moderate presence of conifers, and …

Managing Drought Risk In A Changing Climate, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

There is an increasing concern worldwide regarding the ineffectiveness of current drought management practices that are based largely on crisis management. These practices are reactive and, therefore, only treat the symptoms (impacts) of drought rather than the underlying causes of the vulnerabilities associated with impacts. More effective drought management requires a shift in the paradigm from drought response to a drought risk management approach.

Using Climate Information For Drought Planning, Taryn Finnessey, Michael Hayes, Jeff Lukas, Mark D. Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Historically, drought has been responded to rather than prepared for, yet studies have illustrated that proactive investment in drought risk management reduces impacts and overall response costs. One key element of preparedness is the use of sufficient climate information for monitoring, forecasting, and tracking long-term trends. In the face of a changing climate and increasing variability, these types of data are even more critical for planning and overall resiliency. The systematic use of these data to inform the drought planning component of drought risk management is a relatively recent development. Actionable science has direct applicability for planning and decision-making, and …

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- October 2016, Natalie Umphlett, Jamie Lahowetz, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Stakeholder engagement activities......................................2

Product highlight....................3

Partnership spotlight.............3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Regional news..........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Droughtscape, Fall 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC welcome two to team

Third quarter drought summary: Drought still spreading

Third quarter drought impacts: It was a hot, dry summer

Drought management framework for Africa approved

MENA region update

US Virgin Islands one step closer to its own drought monitor

Montana looks to improve watershed resilience

Tournament tackles hazards

Web tool will help officials make drought-related decisions

Dry Horizons launches

Lessons From The Past: Unfolding The Dynamics Among Climate, Balkan Landscapes, And Humans Over The Past Millennium, Charuta J. Kulkarni

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

The primary objective of this doctoral dissertation is to reconstruct the environmental history of the Central Balkans (Serbia) over the past millennium utilizing biological proxies (pollen, spores, and charcoal), geochemical signals through X-ray fluorescence (XRF), statistical analyses, and atomic mass spectrometry (AMS) ¹⁴C chronology. This dissertation establishes the first chronological framework for vegetation-landscape changes in Serbia and discusses the role of humans and climate as underlying processes.

Chapter 1 discusses the background and the nature of the research problem followed by the extensive literature review on the topic of the Holocene climate and paleoecology. The state of Holocene paleoecology …

Drought In A Human-Modified World: Reframing Drought Definitions, Understanding, And Analysis Approaches, Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark4, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark D. Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, Henny A. J. Van Lanen

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes.Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and …

Tibetan Plateau Geladaindong Black Carbon Ice Core Record (1843–1982): Recent Increases Due To Higher Emissions And Lower Snow Accumulation, Matthew Jenkins, Susan Kaspari, Kang Shi-Chang, Bjorn Grigholm, Paul A. Mayewski

Student Published Works

Black carbon (BC) deposited on snow and glacier surfaces can reduce albedo and lead to accelerated melt. An ice core recovered from Guoqu glacier on Mt. Geladaindong and analyzed using a Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) provides the first long-term (1843–1982) record of BC from the central Tibetan Plateau. Post 1940 the record is characterized by an increased occurrence of years with above average BC, and the highest BC values of the record. The BC increase in recent decades is likely caused by a combination of increased emissions from regional BC sources, and a reduction in snow accumulation. Guoqu glacier …

Umphlett Qci Sept 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Streamflow Conditions

Challenging Season for Bird Breeding

Mixed Impacts to Agriculture this Summer

Unprecedented Fish Kill on Yellowstone River

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Determining The Viability Of Recent Storms As Modern Analogues For North-Central Gulf Of Mexico Paleotempestology Through Sedimentary Analysis And Storm Surge Reconstruction, Joshua Caleb Bregy

Master's Theses

The northern Gulf of Mexico has been devastated by recent intense storms. Camille (1969) and Katrina (2005) are two notable hurricanes that made landfall in virtually the same location in Mississippi. However, fully understanding the risks and processes associated with hurricane impacts is impeded by a short and fragmented instrumental record. Paleotempestology could potentially use modern analogues from intense storms in this region to extend the hurricane record back to pre-observational time. Existing empirically based models can back-calculate surge heights over coastal systems as a function of transport distance, particle settling velocity, and gravitational acceleration. We collected cores in a …

Karst Landscape Influence On The Planetary Boundary Layer Atmosphere, Zachary S. Sullivan

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Karst landscapes cover approximately 20% of the ice-free land area worldwide. The soluble nature of the bedrock within a karst landscape allows for the formation of caverns, joints, fissures, sinkholes, and underground streams, which affect the hydrological behavior of the region. Currently, the Noah Land-Surface Model (Noah- LSM), coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, does not provide a representation of the physical behavior of a karst terrain. Previous research has attempted to model karst behavior through soil moisture and land cover/land use changes to determine the influence this unique landscape may have on atmospheric phenomenon. This highlights …

Drougthscape, Summer 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC adds two employees

Second quarter drought summary: Drought slowly spreading

Second quarter drought impacts: Drought intensifies across US

First comprehensive drought

indices guidebook released

Drought Impact Reporter updates increase usability

Create a custom DIR view

Drought center co-leads MENA region project

McCook, Nebraska, tackles drought resilience

Arizona groups improve public lands drought planning

NDMC founder Don Wilhite retires

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- July 2016, Natalie Umphlett, Bill Sorensen, Jamie Lahowetz, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Research update......................2

Product highlight....................3

Partnership spotlight.............3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Outreach/engagement.........5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6