Climate Commons^™

Measuring Inorganic Carbon Fluxes From Carbonate Mineral Weathering From Large River Basins: The Ohio River Basin, Autumn B. Singer

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations have motivated efforts to better quantify reservoirs and fluxes of Earth’s carbon. Of these fluxes from the atmosphere, one that has received relatively little attention is the atmospheric carbon sink associated with carbonate mineral dissolution. Osterhoudt (2014) and Salley (2016) explored new normalization techniques to improve and standardize a process for measuring this flux over large river basins. The present research extends this work to the 490,600 km2 Ohio River drainage basin and 11 subbasins. The study estimated the DIC flux leaving these basins between October 1, 2013, and September 30, 2014, based on secondary hydrogeochemical, …

Mesonets: Mesoscale Weather And Climate Observations For The United States, Rezaul Mahmood, Ryan Boyles, Kevin Brinson, Christopher Fiebrich, Stuart Foster, Ken Hubbard, David Robinson, Jeff Andresen, Dan Leathers

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Mesoscale in situ meteorological observations are essential for better understanding and forecasting the weather and climate and to aid in decision-making by a myriad of stakeholder communities. They include, for example, state environmental and emergency management agencies, the commercial sector, media, agriculture, and the general public. Over the last three decades, a number of mesoscale weather and climate observation networks have become operational. These networks are known as mesonets. Most are operated by universities and receive different levels of funding. It is important to communicate the current status and critical roles the mesonets play. Most mesonets collect standard meteorological data …

Evidence For Late Pliocene Deglacial Megafloods From Giant Sediment Waves In The Northern Gulf Of Mexico, Zexuan Wang

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Laurentide Ice Sheet outburst floods to the Gulf of Mexico have been mainly documented based on deep-sea cores, especially the megafloods, only during the last several interglacial episodes in the late Pleistocene. The paleoclimatic significance of giant sedimentary structures developed under unconfined Froude-supercritical turbidity currents in subaqueous settings is considerably under-examined. This research extensively documents >20-km-wide and 200-m-thick Plio-Pleistocene giant sediment waves for the first time on the northern Gulf of Mexico continental slope using 3D seismic data, which show waveform morphology in unprecedented detail. The results suggest that such large-scale bedforms were formed under sheet-like unconfined Froudesupercritical turbidity currents …

Droughtscape, Summer 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought policy write shops conclude in Caribbean

Drought encroaches on Northern Plains in second quarter

Impact tool racks up submissions in second quarter

Maps on new website highlight drought effects on ag industry

Centers release new flash drought tool: QuickDRI

NDMC contributes to EU report on disaster risk management

Groups earn Climate Adaptation award for work with tribes

NDMC, ICPAC director talk collaboration on drought in Greater Horn of Africa

Up next in MENA: Drought vulnerability assessments

Umphlett Qci June 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Snowpack and Streamflow

Historic Flooding in Missouri

Spring Conditions Impact Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Environmental Changes Across The Early Mississippian Carbon Isotope Excursion, Dev Krishna Maharjan

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The Early Mississippian K–O (Kinderhookian-Osagean) δ13C excursion or TICE (mid-Tournaisian carbon isotope excursion) is characterized by an anomalous carbonate carbon isotope value of ≥5‰ that has been documented from numerous stratigraphic sections across the globe. This δ13C excursion coincides with global cooling and sea-level fall and predicts a significant change in seawater chemistry. However, sulfate sulfur isotope data across the K-O δ13C excursion reported in previous studies seem not to be responsive to the carbon cycle. Likewise, a recent study has documented a unidirectional increase in nitrogen isotopes across this excursion, which is not anticipated considering the amount of organic …

Synoptic Atmospheric Conditions, Land Cover, And Equivalent Temperature Variations In Kentucky, Dorothy Yemaa Na-Yemeh

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Research has demonstrated that equivalent temperature (T_E), which incorporates both the surface air temperature (T) and moist heat content associated with atmospheric moisture, is a better indicator of overall heat content. This thesis follows up on a study that used T_E to determine the impacts of land use/land cover and air masses on the atmospheric heat content over Kentucky during the growing season (April-September). The study, which used data from the Kentucky Mesonet, reveals that moist weather types dominate the growing season and, as expected, differences between T and T_E are smaller under dry atmospheric conditions …

Characterizing South American Mesoscale Convective Complexes Using Isotope Hydrology, Kyle J. Hogancamp

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) over subtropical South America contribute an average annual volume of precipitation equal to approximately seven km3 and occur with an average regularity in the region, with more than 30 per warm season. Isotopic characteristics of precipitation, such as δ2H and δ18O values, provide information that can be used to identify unique processes and sources related to precipitation events. The largest database of isotope characteristics of precipitation within the region is the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), which provides varying temporal resolution data from stations around the world, including subtropical South America.

Using this database, …

Droughtscape, Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought center helps islands reduce drought vulnerability

2017 sees above-average precipitation, warmer temps

California pulls out of drought

After tech transfer, training Tunisia launches first drought map

Drought center releases 2016 annual report

Book chapter focuses on drought and health

U2U wraps up, brings useful tools to farmers

Survey finds drought info leads to better decisions

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- April 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Fisheries & wildlife climate workshop...................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

NCA workshop and outreach activities......................................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Separating Decadal Global Water Cycle Variability From Sea Level Rise, B. D. Hamlington, J. T. Reager, M.-H. Lo, K. B. Karnauskas, R. R. Leben

CCPO Publications

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both …

Quantity Trumps Quality: Bayesian Statistical Accumulation Modeling Guides Radiocarbon Measurements To Construct A Chronology In Real-Time, Devon Robert Firesinger

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The development of an accurate and precise geochronology is imperative to understanding archives containing information about Earth’s past. Unable to date all intervals of an archive, researchers use methods of interpolation to approximate age between dates. Sections of the radiocarbon calibration curve can induce larger chronological uncertainty independent of instrumental precision, meaning even a precise date may carry inflated error in its calibration to a calendar age. Methods of interpolation range from step-wise linear regression to, most recently, Bayesian statistical models. These employ prior knowledge of accumulation rate to provide a more informed interpolation between neighboring dates. This study uses …

On The Relationship Between Spring Nao And Snowmelt In The Upper Southwestern United States, Boksoon Myoung, Seung Hee Kim, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

This study examines the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and snowmelt in spring in the upper southwestern states of the United States (UP_SW) including California, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, using SNOTEL datasets for 34 yr (1980–2014). Statistically significant negative correlations are found between NAO averages in the snowmelt period and timings of snowmelt (i.e., positive NAO phases in spring enhance snowmelt, and vice versa). It is also found that correlations between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and snowmelt are negligible in the region. The NAO–snowmelt relationship is most pronounced below the 2800-m level; above this level, the relationship becomes weaker. …

Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the ‘‘distance’’ from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because …

Umphlett Qci March 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Christmas Day Storm

Heavy Fuels Increase Fire Risk

Early Warmth Causes Concerns

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

NOAA Spring Flood Outlook

Watershed Response To Climate Change And Fire-Burns In The Upper Umatilla River Basin, Usa, Kimberly Crystal Yazzie, Heejun Chang

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

This study analyzed watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB), Oregon, using the precipitation runoff modeling system. Ten global climate models using Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to simulate the effects of climate and fire-burns on runoff behavior throughout the 21st century. We observed the center timing (CT) of flow, seasonal flows, snow water equivalent (SWE) and basin recharge. In the upper URB, hydrologic regime shifts from a snow-rain-dominated to rain-dominated basin. Ensemble mean CT occurs 27 days earlier in …

Contributions Of Wood Smoke And Vehicle Emissions To Ambient Concentrations Of Volatile Organic Compounds And Particulate Matter During The Yakima Wintertime Nitrate Study, Graham Vanderschelden, Benjamin De Foy, Courtney Herring, Susan D. Kaspari, Tim Vanreken, Bertram Jobson

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

A multiple linear regression (MLR) chemical mass balance model was applied to data collected during an air quality field experiment in Yakima, WA, during January 2013 to determine the relative contribution of residential wood combustion (RWC) and vehicle emissions to ambient pollutant levels. Acetonitrile was used as a chemical tracer for wood burning and nitrogen oxides (NOx) as a chemical tracer for mobile sources. RWC was found to be a substantial source of gas phase air toxics in wintertime. The MLR model found RWC primarily responsible for emissions of formaldehyde (73%), acetaldehyde (69%), and black carbon (55%) and mobile sources …

Implications Of Sea Ice On Southern Ocean Microseisms Detected By A Seismic Array In West Antarctica, Martin J. Pratt, Douglas A. Wiens, J. Paul Winberry, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Garrett G. Euler

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

The proximity of Southern Ocean storms coupled with seasonal variation in sea ice make Antarctica ideal for the study of microseism sources. We explore frequency-dependent beamforming results using a short-duration, 60 km aperture, broad-band seismic array located on the Whillans Ice Stream, West Antarctica. Locations of single-frequency microseism (13–16 s period) generation are in regions where the continental shelf is ice-free, consistent with previous studies, and show Rayleigh wave sources remaining at consistent backazimuths throughout the duration of the array. Beamforming analysis of daily noise correlations shows that long-period double-frequency microseisms (9–11 s) consist predominantly of Rayleigh waves excited by …

Why Do Different Drought Indices Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes In The U.S. Great Plains?, Song Feng, Miroslav Trnka, Michael Hayes, Yongjun Zheng

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the U.S. Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, the authors analyzed the soil moisture at the near-surface soil layer and the entire soil column, as well as the Palmer drought severity index, the Palmer Z index, and the standardized precipitation and evaporation index using the output from the Community Climate System Model, version …

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget From A Multi-Model Perspective, Hahn Chul Jung, Augusto Getirana, Frederick Policelli, Amy Mcnally, Kristi R. Arsenault, Sujay Kumar, Tsegaye Tadesse, Christa D. Peters-Lidard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based …

Climate Change And Population Growth Impacts On Surface Water Supply And Demand Of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Bisrat Kifle Arsiso, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Gerrit Hendrik Stoffberg, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 …

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

Information Mining From Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study On Drought Predictions, Getachew B. Demisse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Solomon Atnafu, Shawndra Hill, Brian D. Wardlow, Yared Bayissa, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART) approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the …

Socio-Environmental Drought Response In A Mixed Urban-Agricultural Setting: Synthesizing Biophysical And Governance Responses In The Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, Usa, Samuel C. Zipper, Kelly Helm Smith, Betsy Breyer, Jianxiao Qui, Anthony Kung, Dustin Herrmann

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Ensuring global food and water security requires a detailed understanding of how coupled socio-environmental systems respond to drought. Using the Platte River Watershed in Nebraska (USA) as an exemplar mixed urban-agricultural watershed, we quantify biophysical response to drought in urban (Lincoln NE) and agricultural systems alongside a qualitative analysis of governance response and adaptive capacity of both sectors. Synthesis of results highlights parallels and discontinuities between urban and agricultural preparations for and response to drought. Whereas drought prompted an increase in well installations and expansion of water-intensive crops, e.g., corn, in the agricultural sector, outdoor water use restrictions rapidly curtailed …

Cocorahs Observers Contribute To “Condition Monitoring” In The Carolinas: A New Initiative Addresses Needs For Drought Impacts Information, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Farris, David Eckhardt, Nolan Doesken, Henry Reges, Julian Turner, Kelly Helm Smith, Rebecca Ward

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

High Plains Regional Climate Center (Poster)

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The HPRCC provides the public with several ways to access climate data and information. Whether via direct contact, website access, or through a subscription to one of HPRCC’s online services, users can acquire a variety of climate data products, such as: • Near Real-Time and Historical Climate Data • National and Regional Climate Data Maps • Agricultural Climate Products • Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Regional Climate Summaries

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- January 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Jamie Lahowetz, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

30th anniversary......................1

Stakeholder engagement activities......................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Services update........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

A Model-Based Assessment Of Potential Impacts Of Man-Made Reservoirs On Precipitation, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Faisal Hossain, Eric Rappin, Joshua D. Durkee, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in weather and climate systems. Human modifications of land cover include building reservoirs and thus creating artificial lakes for multipurpose use. In this research, the authors have completed a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–based assessment of impacts of two large parallel lakes on precipitation. This area is located in the western part of the states of Kentucky and Tennessee and known as the Land between the Lakes (LBL). To determine the impacts, this study has replaced the lakes with grass, deciduous forests, and bare soil and conducted model simulations for three …

The Effect Of The Dry Line And Convective Initiation On Drought Evolution Over Oklahoma During The 2011 Drought, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Bradley G. Illston, Jason A. Otkin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used to evaluate the effect that the dry line and large-scale atmospheric patterns had on drought evolution during 2011. Mesonet observations showed that a “dry” and “wet” pattern developed across Oklahoma due to anomalous atmospheric patterns. The location of the dry line varied due to this “dry” and “wet” pattern, with the average dry line location around 1.5∘ longitude further to the east than climatology.Model simulations were used to further quantify the impact of variable surface conditions on dry line evolution and convective initiation (CI) …

Useful To Usable: Developing Usable Climate Science For Agriculture, Linda Stalker Prokopy, J. Stuart Carlton, Tonya Haigh, Maria Carmen Lemos, Amber Saylor Mase, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Useful to Usable (U2U) project was a six-year research and extension project funded by the United States Department of Agriculture to provide both useful and usable climate information for the agricultural (corn) sector in the Midwestern United States. The project adopted an extensive co-production of knowledge and decision-making approach that involved intense iteration with potential end-users, including farmers and a variety of professional agricultural advisors, through focus groups and surveys, feedback at outreach events, and frequent informal interactions to develop both decision support tools and delivery mechanisms that met stakeholder needs. This overview paper for this special issue illustrates …