Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

Climate Masters Of Nebraska: An Innovative Action-Based Approach For Climate Change Education, Tapan Pathak, Tonya Bernadt, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Climate Masters of Nebraska is an innovative educational program that strategically trains community volunteers about climate change science and corresponding ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in an interactive and action-based teaching environment. As a result of the program, 91% of participants indicated that they made informed changes in their lives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Approximately 500 hours of volunteer work was reported by participants as an outreach for greenhouse gas emission reduction. The program can be easily replicated to other locales with an effective planning and with small leadership team.

Droughtscape, Winter 2014, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Outlook & quarterly review . 2

Drought in 2013 review.

Quarterly impacts review . 5

Impacts in 2013 review.

Belmont Forum research0

USDM change maps 11

Central Asia drought planning

Kansas RC&D planning

Publication compares plans

Drought for planners webinar

Soil moisture networks

Kansas farm and ranch planning

$500 to develop leadership

Kids seek solutions

Plains symposium April 1-4

Distinguishing Molecular Characteristics Of Aerosol Water Soluble Organic Matter From The 2011 Trans-North Atlantic Us Geotraces Cruise, A. S. Wozniak, A. S. Willoughby, S. C. Gurganus, Patrick G. Hatcher

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

The molecular characteristics of aerosol organic matter (OM) determines to a large extent its impacts on the atmospheric radiative budget and ecosystem function in terrestrial and aquatic environments, yet the OM molecular details of aerosols from different sources are not well established. Aerosol particulate samples with North American-influenced, North African-influenced, and marine (minimal recent continental influence) air mass back trajectories were collected as part of the 2011 trans-North Atlantic US GEOTRACES cruise and analyzed for their water soluble OM (WSOM) molecular characteristics using electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry. Principal component analysis (PCA) separated the samples into …

Global Stratospheric Fluorine Inventory For 2004-2009 From Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (Ace-Fts) Measurements And Slimcat Model Simulations, A. T. Brown, M. P. Chipperfield, N. A. D. Richards, C. Boone, P. F. Bernath

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

Fluorine-containing species can be extremely effective atmospheric greenhouse gases. We present fluorine budgets using organic and inorganic species retrieved by the ACE-FTS satellite instrument supplemented with output from the SLIMCAT 3-D chemical transport model. The budgets are calculated between 2004 and 2009 for a number of latitude bands: 70-30 °N, 30-00 °N, 00 °N-30 °S, and 30-70°S. At lower altitudes total fluorine profiles are dominated by the contribution from CFC-12, up to an altitude of 20 km in the extra-tropics and 29 km in the tropics; above these altitudes the profiles are dominated by hydrogen fluoride (HF). Our data show …

Derivation Of Tropospheric Methane From Tccon Ch4 And Hf Total Column Observations, K. M. Saad, D. Wunch, P. Bernath, C. Boone, B. Connor, N. M. Deutscher, D.W.T. Griffith, R. Kivi, J. Notholt, C. Roehl, M. Schneider, V. Sherlock, P. O. Wennberg

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

The Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) is a global ground-based network of Fourier transform spectrometers that produce precise measurements of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of atmospheric methane (CH₄). Temporal variability in the total column of CH₄ due to stratospheric dynamics obscures fluctuations and trends driven by tropospheric transport and local surface fluxes that are critical for understanding CH₄ sources and sinks. We reduce the contribution of stratospheric variability from the total column average by subtracting an estimate of the stratospheric CH₄ derived from simultaneous measurements of hydrogen fluoride (HF). HF provides a proxy for …

Horizontal Divergence Of Typhoon-Generated Gravity Waves In The Upper Troposphere And Lower Stratosphere (Utls) And Its Influence On Typhoon Evolution, Seung Hee Kim, H.-Y. Chun, W. Jang

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The characteristics of horizontal divergence induced by typhoon-generated gravity waves (HDTGWs) and the influence of HDTGW on typhoon evolution are investigated based on the simulation results of Typhoon Saomai (2006) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The power spectral density of HDTGW shows dominant powers at horizontal wavelengths of 20-30 km and at periods of less than 1 h. This is associated with gravity waves generated by vigorous convective clouds in an inner core region of the typhoon. However, the domain-averaged HDTGW in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere had a spectral peak at 24 h, which is …

A Molecular-Level Approach For Characterizing Water-Insoluble Components Of Ambient Organic Aerosol Particulates Using Ultrahigh-Resolution Mass Spectrometry, A. S. Willoughby, A. S. Wozniak, Patrick G. Hatcher

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

The chemical composition of organic aerosols in the atmosphere is strongly influenced by human emissions. The effect these have on the environment, human health, and climate change is determined by the molecular nature of these chemical species. The complexity of organic aerosol samples limits the ability to study the chemical composition, and therefore the associated properties and the impacts they have. Many studies have addressed the watersoluble fraction of organic aerosols and have had much success in identifying specific molecular formulas for thousands of compounds present. However, little attention is given to the water-insoluble portion, which can contain most of …

Adjusted Tornado Probabilities, Holly M. Widen, James B. Elsner, Cameron Amrine, Rizalino B. Cruz, Erik Fraza, Laura Michaels, Loury Migliorelli, Brendan Mulholland, Michael Patterson, Sarah Strazzo, Guang Xing

Publications

Tornado occurrence rates computed from the available reports are biased low relative to the unknown true rates. To correct for this low bias, the authors demonstrate a method to estimate the annual probability of being struck by a tornado that uses the average report density estimated as a function of distance from nearest city/town center. The method is demonstrated on Kansas and then applied to 15 other tornado-prone states from Nebraska to Tennessee. States are ranked according to their adjusted tornado rate and comparisons are made with raw rates published elsewhere. The adjusted rates, expressed as return periods, arestates, including …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2013, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Soil Moisture

September Flooding in Colorado

Early October Blizzard

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Observed Versus Gcm-Generated Local Tropical Cyclone Frequency: Comparisons Using A Spatial Lattice, Sarah Strazzo, Daniel J. Halperin, James Elsner, Tim Larow, Ming Zhao

Publications

Of broad scientific and public interest is the reliability of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate future regional and local tropical cyclone (TC) occurrences. Atmospheric GCMs are now able to generate vortices resembling actual TCs, but questions remain about their fidelity to observed TCs. Here the authors demonstrate a spatial lattice approach for comparing actual with simulated TC occurrences regionally using observed TCs from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset and GCM-generated TCs from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) and Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) …

Droughtscape, Fall 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Kansas community drought planning workshop November 5

Drought impacts webinars

Drought outlook and summary

Late summer drought brings more agricultural impacts

Plans help ranchers weather drought

NDMC contributions to U2U project

Drought Management Database archives strategies

QuickDRI will help spot flash droughts

NDMC Co-Hosts NASA workshop

Wilhite leads Integrated Drought Management Program work

Speaking of drought

Managing #Drought tweet chat transcript

Updated USDM website

Synoptic-Scale Precursors, Characteristics And Typing Of Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective Complexes In The Great Plains, Shawn M. Milrad, Cailee M. Kelly

Publications

Mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) occur frequently during the warm season in the central U.S. and can produce flooding rains, hail and tornadoes. Previous work has found that the synoptic-scale environment can greatly affect, and be affected by, the development and maintenance of MCCs. Ninetytwo MCC cases from 2006–2011 are manually identified using infrared satellite imagery and partitioned into three types (upstream trough, zonal and ridge) using a unique manual synoptic typing based on 500- hPa height patterns. Upstream trough cases feature an amplified longwave 500-hPa trough upstream of the MCC genesis region (GR), while the 500-hPa flow is relatively flat …

Dynamical Downscaling Projections Of Twenty-First-Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Cmip3 And Cmip5 Model-Based Scenarios, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Stephen Garner, Ming Zhao, Hyeong-Seog Kim, Morris Bender, Robert E. Tuleya, Isaac M. Held, Gabriele Villarini

CCPO Publications

Twenty-first-century projections of Atlantic climate change are downscaled to explore the robustness of potential changes in hurricane activity. Multimodel ensembles using the phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B; late-twenty-first century) and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)/representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5; early- and late-twenty-first century) scenarios are examined. Ten individual CMIP3 models are downscaled to assess the spread of results among the CMIP3 (but not the CMIP5) models. Downscaling simulations are compared for 18-km grid regional and 50-km grid global models. Storm cases from the regional model …

Frequency, Intensity, And Sensitivity To Sea Surface Temperature Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones In Best-Track And Simulated Data, Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Jill C. Trepanier, Kerry A. Emanuel

Publications

Synthetic hurricane track data generated from a downscaling approach are compared to best-track (observed) data to analyze differences in regional frequency, intensity, and sensitivity of limiting intensity to sea surface temperature (SST). Overall, the spatial distributions of observed and simulated hurricane counts match well, although there are relatively fewer synthetic storms in the eastern quarter of the basin. Additionally, regions of intense synthetic hurricanes tend to coincide with regions of intense observed hurricanes. The sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST computed from synthetic data is slightly lower than sensitivity computed from observed data (5.561.31 m s21 (standard error, SE) …

Climate Change On The Prairie: A Basic Guide To Climate Change In The High Plains Region - Update, Lincoln, Ne

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Global Climate Change

Climate Change in the United States

Historical Climate Trends in the High Plains Region

Historical Climate Trends in the High Plains Region

High Plains Region Update: 2010-2012

New Tool: Climate Impact Reporter

Climate Change Projections and Possible Impacts

Climate Change Projections and Possible Impacts

Mesoscale Modeling And Satellite Observation Of Transport And Mixing Of Smoke And Dust Particles Over Northern Sub-Saharan African Region, Zhifeng Yang

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The transport and vertical distribution of smoke and mineral dust aerosols over the Northern Sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region have important implications for regional and global air quality and climate. This study employs ground-based and satellite observations, and numerical simulations conducted with a fully-coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model, Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). The WRF-Chem simulation is for February 2008 and uses hourly dynamic smoke emissions from the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) database derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire products. Model performance of smoke and dust simulation is evaluated using numerous satellite and ground-based …

Droughtscape, Summer 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

July 25 webinar: Drought management database, NIDIS update

Republican River Basin workshops July 31, August 1

Summer climate outlook, spring summary

Spring impacts: wildfire, water, agriculture and business

Data help managers assess Nebraska groundwater declines after drought of 2012

Tadesse helps Mexico with Veg-DRI concept

Visiting scholar explores remote sensing of drought in forests

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum photo recap, details online

Workshop helps New Mexico ranchers cope with drought

Alabama’s new drought plan

National Drought Forum report

Drought Impacts Community of Practice report

An Examination Of The Mechanisms And Environments Supportive Of Bow Echo Mesovortex Genesis, George Limpert

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Low-level mesovortices are associated with enhanced surface wind gusts and high-end wind damage in quasi-linear thunderstorms. Although damage associated with mesovortices can approach that of moderately strong tornadoes, skill in forecasting mesovortices is low. The overarching goal of this work is to understand mesovortices and how they develop, to improve the skill in forecasting them. This was done by developing a climatology of mesovortices, which required a tracking algorithm, and numerical simulations were conducted to answer questions that could not be answered through the observational data. A climatology of mesovortices was constructed from 44 events during 2009 and 2010 to …

Droughtscape, Spring 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

First quarter climate summary and outlook

Impacts: Crop indemnities set records in 2012; water conflicts escalating

International meeting recommends countries have drought policies

NDMC plays key role in international drought policy meeting

EDEN and VOAD guide helps build community drought capacity

Svoboda, other experts and policymakers focus on food and water security

New Mexico ranching workshop set for May 29 in Socorro

Ranch planning updates: archived webinars, new publications

Tune in to the US Drought Monitor Forum, April 16-18

Archived webinar looks at using drought simulations in planning

CoCoRaHS WxTalk on drought

Evaluation Of A Wind-Wave System For Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part I: Winds, Steven M. Lazarus, Samuel T. Wilson, Michael E. Splitt, Gary A. Zarillo

Aeronautics Faculty Publications

A computationally efficient method of producing tropical cyclone (TC) wind analyses is developed and tested, using a hindcast methodology, for 12 Gulf of Mexico storms. The analyses are created by blending synthetic data, generated from a simple parametric model constructed using extended best-track data and climatology, with a first-guess field obtained from the NCEP-NCAR North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Tests are performed whereby parameters in the wind analysis and vortex model are varied in an attempt to best represent the TC wind fields. A comparison between nonlinear and climatological estimates of the TC size parameter indicates that the former yields …

Leeside Boundary Layer Confluence And Afternoon Thunderstorms Over Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, Mark Jury, Sen Chiao

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

The midsummer boundary layer (BL) circulation and afternoon thunderstorm convection on the lee side of Puerto Rico is studied using observations and high-resolution models. Satellite infrared data help to identify cases on 5 and 14 June 2010 when midday surface temperatures show a 2°C gradient between land and sea and afternoon cloud-top temperatures <−60°C. Acoustic sounder profiles are analyzed for climatology, wind shear, turbulence, and diurnal cycles in the 40-300-m layer. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations indicate that sea-breeze flow is entrained into convective cells near Mayaguez, Puerto Rico. The simulated BL wind shear is too weak (0.5 × 10−2 s−1) in comparison with the acoustic sounder (2 × 10−2 s−1). Model 900-hPa winds are southeasterly and spread simulated convection too far north in comparison with radar. The pattern of near-surface winds in the island wake triggers afternoon thunderstorms near Mayaguez. A feature of the confluent circulation around Puerto Rico is opposing shear zones on the leeward corners of the island and a sea breeze of 5 m s−1 over the west coast during midday. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] . Copyright of Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.).

Remote Sensing Of Surface Visibility From Space: A Look At The United States East Coast, Amy L. Kessner

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

While important for the management of air quality, human health and transportation, surface visibility data currently are only available through ground-based measurements, such as the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS), and therefore lack spatial coverage. In analogy to the recent work of using satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to derive surface dry aerosol mass concentration at continental-to-global scale for cloud-free conditions, this study evaluates the potential of AOD retrieved from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for deriving surface visibility. For this purpose of evaluation, the truncated and discrete visibility data from daily weather reports are not suitable and the …

Numerical Investigations Of Convective Initiation In Barbados, Kim Whitehall, Sen Chiao, Margarette Mayers-Als

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Localized convection in Barbados accounts for hazardous conditions and a significant percentage of the island’s annual rainfall. The feature results in rainfall accumulations exceeding 50 mm in 3 hours or less, over isolated locations. Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) simulations are conducted for a rapid convective initiated and heavy precipitation event of 26 August 2008 over Barbados. The simulation results from the 1 km grid resolution domain depict that the shallow topography on the island plays a significant role in enhancing convective activity under weak synoptically disturbed conditions. The model results also demonstrate that the driving forces for the …

Evaluation Of Wrf-Sfire Performance With Field Observations From The Fireflux Experiment, A. Kochanski, M. Jenkins, J. Mandel, J. Beezley, Craig Clements, S. Krueger

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

This study uses in situ measurements collected during the FireFlux field experiment to evaluate and improve the performance of the coupled atmosphere–fire model WRF-SFIRE. The simulation by WRF-SFIRE of the experimental burn shows that WRF-SFIRE is capable of providing realistic head-fire rate of spread and vertical temperature structure of the fire plume, and fire-induced surface flow and vertical velocities within the plume up to 10 m above ground level. The simulation captured the changes in wind speed and direction before, during, and after fire front passage, along with the arrival times of wind speed, temperature, and updraft maxima, at the …

Kinematic Structure Of A Wildland Fire Plume Observed By Doppler Lidar, A. Charland, Craig Clements

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Wildland fires present a challenging environment to make meteorological measurements. Observations in the vicinity of wildland fires are needed to better understand fire-atmosphere interactions and to provide data for the evaluation of coupled fire-atmosphere models. An observational study was conducted during a low-intensity prescribed fire in an area of complex terrain with grass fuels east of San José, California. A ground-based scanning Doppler lidar acquired radial wind velocities and backscatter intensity in and around the fire plume from multiple horizontal and vertical scans. The development of a convergence zone was consistently observed to exist downwind of the plume and was …

Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions From A Waste Lagoon, Arturo I. Quintanar, Rezaul Mamood, Nanh Lovanh, Justin M. Rawley, Evi Becerra-Acosta, John H. Loughrin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

A cost-effective approach was used to investigate the relationship between emission of the greenhouse gases (GHG), namely, CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O and energy fluxes from a swine waste lagoon. Energy fluxes were calculated using the Penman method. The energy fluxes showed a diurnal pattern as expected of such fluxes. We found that air temperature and latent energy, lagoon surface temperature and solar radiation, as well as air temperature and wind speed can be used to predict for CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions, respectively. Comparison of observed and predicted …

Regional Climate Trends And Scenarios For The U.S. National Climate Assessment Part 4. Climate Of The U.S. Great Plains, Kenneth E. Kunkel, Laura E. Stevens, Scott E. Stevens, Liqiang Sun, Emily Janssen, Donald Wuebbles, Michael C. Kruk, Devin Thomas, Martha Shulski, Natalie A. Umphlett, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Kevin Robbins, Luigi Romolo, Adnan Akyuz, Tapan B. Pathak, Tony R. Bergantino, J. Greg Dobson

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

This document is one of series of regional climate descriptions designed to provide input that can be used in the development of the National Climate Assessment (NCA). As part of a sustained assessment approach, it is intended that these documents will be updated as new and well-vetted model results are available and as new climate scenario needs become clear. It is also hoped that these documents (and associated data and resources) are of direct benefit to decision makers and communities seeking to use this information in developing adaptation plans.

There are nine reports in this series, one each for eight …

Droughtscape, Winter 2013, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Climatological overview of drought in 2012

Climatological overview of drought, October-December 2012

Impacts of drought in 2012

Drought planning webinars scheduled for ranch advisors

UNL honors NDMC for exceptional service

Report from the emerging community of drought planners

Feb. 6 webinar on drought simulations

Climate Masters course starting

Climate Change in the Midwest book includes drought

Video highlights from coverage of drought of 2012

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum 2013

UN’s High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy

NDMC collaboration with India, Czech Republic

Long-Term (1951-2007) Rainfall Trends Around Six Indian Cities: Current State, Meteorological, And Urban Dynamics, Shailesh Kumar Kharol, D. G. Kaskaoutis, Anu Rani Sharma, Ramesh P. Singh

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The present study focuses on analyzing the precipitation trends over six Indian cities during the summer monsoon (June-September) covering the period 1951-2007 and also attempting to investigate possible urban forcing and dynamics by examining the variation in precipitation in the upwind and downwind directions. The analysis shows negative trends in the total number of rainy days over Hyderabad (-10.4%), Kanpur (-7.1%), Jaipur (-10.5%), and Nagpur (-4.8%) and positive trends over Delhi (7.4%) and Bangalore (22.9%). On the other hand, decreases of -21.3%, -5.9%, -14.2%, and -14.6% in seasonal rainfall are found over Delhi, Hyderabad, Jaipur, and Kanpur, respectively, whereas Bangalore …

Climate Change: What Does It Mean For Nebraska?, Martha D. Shulski, Natalie A. Umphlett, Tapan B. Pathak, Kenneth G. Hubbard

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Because Nebraska’s location on the North American continent is far removed from large bodies of water, Nebraskans experience a strong continental type climate. As such, residents do not benefit from the moderating influence of the ocean, and temperatures can have wide swings from day to day and season to season. Typical characteristics for a continental climate at this latitude are large temperature variability with warm summers dominated by convective thunderstorms, and cold winters influenced by snow and wind from mid-latitude cyclones.