Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

Hyper-Local Weather Predictions With The Enhanced General Urban Area Microclimate Predictions Tool, Kevin A. Adkins, William Becker, Sricharan Ayyalasomayajula, Steven Lavenstein, Kleoniki Vlachou, David Miller, Marc Compere, Avinash Muthu Krishnan, Nickolas Macchiarella

Publications

This paper presents enhancements to, and the demonstration of, the General Urban area Microclimate Predictions tool (GUMP), which is designed to provide hyper-local weather predictions by combining machine-learning (ML) models and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations. For the further development and demonstration of GUMP, the Embry–Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU) campus was used as a test environment. Local weather sensors provided data to train ML models, and CFD models of urban- and suburban-like areas of ERAU’s campus were created and iterated through with a wide assortment of inlet wind speed and direction combinations. ML weather sensor predictions were combined with best-fit …

Large Scale Upper-Level Precursors For Dust Storm Formation Over North Africa And Poleward Transport To The Iberian Peninsula. Part I: An Observational Analysis, J.A. G. Orza, Michael L. Kaplan, S. Dhital, S. Fiedler

Publications

The analysis of three extreme African dust outbreaks over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) shows that a double Rossby wave breaking (RWB) process in the polar jet (PJ) creates the conditions for dust storm formation over subtropical deserts in North Africa and the restructuring of upper-level air flows critical for the dust transport poleward after ablation. Two consecutive anticyclonic RWBs initiate over the IP and the adjacent Atlantic, the first commencing 10 days before dust reaches the IP and the second three to five days later. The first RWB becomes quasi-stationary over the eastern Mediterranean when the second RWB develops. In …

Observations Of An Extreme Atmospheric River Storm With A Diverse Sensor Network, B. J. Hatchett, Michael L. Kaplan, Q. Cao, P. B. Dawson, C. J. Ellis, Et Al.

Publications

Observational networks enhance real‐time situational awareness for emergency and water resource management during extreme weather events. We present examples of how a diverse, multitiered observational network in California provided insights into hydrometeorological processes and impacts during a 3‐day atmospheric river storm centered on 14 February 2019. This network, which has been developed over the past two decades, aims to improve understanding and mitigation of effects from extreme storms influencing water resources and natural hazards. We combine atmospheric reanalysis output and additional observations to show how the network allows: (1) the validation of record cool season precipitable water observations over southern …

Application Of A Hybrid Statistical–Dynamical System To Seasonal Prediction Of North American Temperature And Precipitation, Sarah Strazzo, Dan C. Collins, Andrew Schepen, Q. J. Wang, Emily Becker, Liweli Jia

Publications

Recent research demonstrates that dynamical models sometimes fail to represent observed teleconnection patterns associated with predictable modes of climate variability. As a result, model forecast skill may be reduced. We address this gap in skill through the application of a Bayesian postprocessing technique—the calibration, bridging, and merging (CBaM) method—which previously has been shown to improve probabilistic seasonal forecast skill over Australia. Calibration models developed from dynamical model reforecasts and observations are employed to statistically correct dynamical model forecasts. Bridging models use dynamical model forecasts of relevant climate modes (e.g., ENSO) as predictors of remote temperature and precipitation. Bridging and calibration …

The Extratropical Transition Of Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Cyclonic Evolution And Direct Impacts, Clark Evans, Kimberly M. Wood, Sim D. Aberson, Heather M. Archambault, Shawn M. Milrad, Lance F. Bosart, Et Al.

Publications

Extratropical transition (ET) is the process by which a tropical cyclone, upon encountering a baroclinic environment and reduced sea surface temperature at higher latitudes, transforms into an extratropical cyclone. This process is influenced by, and influences, phenomena from the tropics to the midlatitudes and from the meso- to the planetary scales to extents that vary between individual events. Motivated in part by recent high-impact and/or extensively observed events such as North Atlantic Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and western North Pacific Typhoon Sinlaku in 2008, this review details advances in understanding and predicting ET since the publication of an earlier review …

Mobile Radar As An Undergraduate Education And Research Tool: The Erau C-Breese Field Experience With The Doppler On Wheels, Shawn M. Milrad, Christopher G. Herbster

Publications

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Convective-Boundary Research Engaging Educational Student Experiences (ERAU C-BREESE) was an 18-day National Science Foundation (NSF)-funded educational Doppler on Wheels (DOW) deployment through the Center for Severe Weather Research in May 2015. ERAU C-BREESE had three primary areas of focus: meteorological field observations and research, undergraduate experiential learning, and local community outreach. ERAU undergraduate meteorology students had the unique opportunity to forecast for, collect, and analyze field measurements of sea-breeze processes and convection. The scientific objectives of ERAU C-BREESE were to forecast, observe, and analyze central Florida sea-breeze processes and thunderstorms by combining a DOW with more traditional …

Hurricanes And Climate The U.S. Clivar Working Group On Hurricanes, Kevin J.E. Walsh, Suzana J. Camargo, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Anne Sophie Daloz, James Elsner, Kerry Emanuel, Michael Horn, Young-Kwon Lim, Malcom Roberts, Christina Patricola, Enrico Scoccimarro, Adam H. Sobel, Sarah Strazzo, Gabrielle Villarini, Michael Wehner, Ming Zhao, James P. Kossin, Tim Larow, Kazuyoshi Oouchi, Sigfried Schubert, Hui Wang, Julio Bacmeister, Ping Chang, Fabrice Chauvin, Christiane Jablonowski, Arun Kumar, Hiroyuki Murakami, Tomoaki Ose, Kevin A. Reed, Ramalingam Saravanan, Yohei Yamada, Colin M. Zarzycki, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jefferey A. Jonas, Naomi Henderson

Publications

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results from …

A Swirl In The Clouds Near Santa Cruz Island (Images Of Note), Bradley M. Muller, Christopher G. Herbster

Publications

The authors discuss a rare photograph of an atmospheric eddy produced by marine boundary layer flow past terrain.

Adjusted Tornado Probabilities, Holly M. Widen, James B. Elsner, Cameron Amrine, Rizalino B. Cruz, Erik Fraza, Laura Michaels, Loury Migliorelli, Brendan Mulholland, Michael Patterson, Sarah Strazzo, Guang Xing

Publications

Tornado occurrence rates computed from the available reports are biased low relative to the unknown true rates. To correct for this low bias, the authors demonstrate a method to estimate the annual probability of being struck by a tornado that uses the average report density estimated as a function of distance from nearest city/town center. The method is demonstrated on Kansas and then applied to 15 other tornado-prone states from Nebraska to Tennessee. States are ranked according to their adjusted tornado rate and comparisons are made with raw rates published elsewhere. The adjusted rates, expressed as return periods, arestates, including …

Observed Versus Gcm-Generated Local Tropical Cyclone Frequency: Comparisons Using A Spatial Lattice, Sarah Strazzo, Daniel J. Halperin, James Elsner, Tim Larow, Ming Zhao

Publications

Of broad scientific and public interest is the reliability of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate future regional and local tropical cyclone (TC) occurrences. Atmospheric GCMs are now able to generate vortices resembling actual TCs, but questions remain about their fidelity to observed TCs. Here the authors demonstrate a spatial lattice approach for comparing actual with simulated TC occurrences regionally using observed TCs from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset and GCM-generated TCs from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) and Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) …

Synoptic-Scale Precursors, Characteristics And Typing Of Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective Complexes In The Great Plains, Shawn M. Milrad, Cailee M. Kelly

Publications

Mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) occur frequently during the warm season in the central U.S. and can produce flooding rains, hail and tornadoes. Previous work has found that the synoptic-scale environment can greatly affect, and be affected by, the development and maintenance of MCCs. Ninetytwo MCC cases from 2006–2011 are manually identified using infrared satellite imagery and partitioned into three types (upstream trough, zonal and ridge) using a unique manual synoptic typing based on 500- hPa height patterns. Upstream trough cases feature an amplified longwave 500-hPa trough upstream of the MCC genesis region (GR), while the 500-hPa flow is relatively flat …

Frequency, Intensity, And Sensitivity To Sea Surface Temperature Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones In Best-Track And Simulated Data, Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Jill C. Trepanier, Kerry A. Emanuel

Publications

Synthetic hurricane track data generated from a downscaling approach are compared to best-track (observed) data to analyze differences in regional frequency, intensity, and sensitivity of limiting intensity to sea surface temperature (SST). Overall, the spatial distributions of observed and simulated hurricane counts match well, although there are relatively fewer synthetic storms in the eastern quarter of the basin. Additionally, regions of intense synthetic hurricanes tend to coincide with regions of intense observed hurricanes. The sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST computed from synthetic data is slightly lower than sensitivity computed from observed data (5.561.31 m s21 (standard error, SE) …

Analysis And Modeling Of Ducted And Evanescent Gravity Waves Observed In The Hawaiian Airglow, D. B. Simkhada, J. B. Snively, M. J. Taylor, S. J. Franke

Publications

Short-period gravity waves of especially-small horizontal scale have been observed in the Maui, Hawaii airglow. Typical small-scale gravity wave events have been investigated, and intrinsic wave propagation characteristics have been calculated from simultaneous meteor radar wind measurements. Here we report specific cases where wave structure is significantly determined by the local wind structure, and where wave characteristics are consistent with ducted or evanescent waves throughout the mesopause region. Two of the documented events, exhibiting similar airglow signatures but dramatically different propagation conditions, are selected for simple numerical modeling case studies. First, a Doppler-ducted wave trapped within relatively weak wind flow …

Simulations Of The Effects Of Water Vapor, Cloud Liquid Water, And Ice On Amsu Moisture Channel Brightness Temperatures, Bradley M. Muller, Henry E. Fuelberg, Xuwu Xiang

Publications

Radiative transfer simulations are performed to determine how water vapor and nonprecipitating cloud liquid water and ice particles within typical midlatitude atmospheres affect brightness temperatures T-B's of moisture sounding channels used in the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and AMSU-like instruments. The purpose is to promote a general understanding of passive top-of-atmosphere T-B's for window frequencies at 23.8, 89.0, and 157.0 GHz, and water vapor frequencies at 176.31, 180.31, and 182.31 GHz by documenting specific examples. This is accomplished through detailed analyses of T-B's for idealized atmospheres, mostly representing temperate conditions over land. Cloud effects are considered in terms of …

An Alternative Representation Of The Ice Canopy For Calculating Microwave Brightness Temperatures Over A Thunderstorm, Bradley M. Muller, Henry E. Fuelberg, Eric A. Smith

Publications

Passive microwave brightness temperatures (T(B)'s) at 92 and 183 GHz from an aircraft thunderstorm overflight are compared with values calculated from radar-derived hydrometeor profiles and a modified proximity sounding. Two methods for modeling particles in the ice canopy are contrasted. The first is a ''traditional'' approach employing Marshall-Palmer ice spheres. The second, or ''alternative,'' method partitions 20% of the ice water content into a Marshall-Palmer component for graupel and hail, and 80% into a modified gamma spherical particle size distribution function representing ice crystals.

Results from the alternative approach are superior to those from the traditional method in the anvil …

A Simulation And Diagnostic Study Of Water Vapor Image Dry Bands, Bradley M. Muller, Henry E. Fuelberg

Publications

A Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System (LAMPS) model simulation and special 3-hour radiosonde dataset are used to investigate warm (dry) bands in 6,7 μm water vapor satellite imagery on 6–7 March 1982. The purpose is to reveal processes resulting in the formation and evolution of the dry features that appear as curving dark streaks in the imagery. Model soundings are input to a radiative transfer algorithm to generate synthetic 6.7 μm equivalent blackbody temperatures (TB) which are compared with those from the Visible infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. Simulated and radiosonde-derived vertical velocity …

Earth Observing System, Volume Iia: Data And Information System, Report Of The Eos Data Panel, Raymond Arvidson, Frederick Billingsley, Robert Chase, Pat Chavez Jr., Michael Devirian, Frederick Mosher, Et Al.

Publications

The purpose of this report is to provide NASA with a rationale and recommendations for planning, implementing, and operating an Earth Observing System data and information system that can evolve to meet the Earth Observing System's needs in the 1990s. The Earth Observing System (EOS), defined by the EOS Science and Mission Requirements Working Group, consists of a suite of instruments in low Earth orbit acquiring measurements of the Earth's atmosphere, surface, and interior; an information system to support scientific research; and a vigorous program of scientific research, stressing study of global-scale processes that shape and influence the Earth as …