Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

A Climatological And Multiscale Analysis Of Cold Air Outbreaks In The Northeast United States, Zachary Baker Murphy

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The results of a climatological and multiscale analysis of cold air outbreaks (CAOs) that impacted the Northeast U.S. during 1948–2015 are presented. This climatological and multiscale analysis was based on daily minimum temperature data extracted from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily dataset for 53 stations that were distributed throughout nine climate regions defined by the NCEI. A CAO is diagnosed whenever two or more stations within an NCEI climate region experience three or more consecutive days where the daily minimum temperatures at a station fall below the 31-day centered moving average of the fifth …

Ensemble Variability In Rainfall Forecasts Of Hurricane Irene (2011), Molly Becker Smith

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

As tropical cyclones (TCs) move into the midlatitudes, they are often associated with extensive heavy precipitation. This precipitation can lead to widespread flooding events, such as occurred with Hurricane Irene (2011) over the northeastern United States. Despite the high-impact nature of these events, there are relatively few studies that explore the sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to model initial conditions, beyond focusing on the variability in forecast TC track.

Turbulence In The Upper Levels Of Tropical Cyclones, Michaela Leigh Rosenmayer

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Turbulence in the cirrus canopy of tropical cyclones (TCs) can give an indication about the physical processes that occur in this expansive cloud deck. The low stability and/or large shear that likely coincides with turbulent layers can be produced by radiative forcing, convective forcing, and sublimation of frozen precipitation from the cirrus canopy. As a result, turbulence in the cirrus canopy can give an indication about the impact of various physical processes in tropical cyclones.

Determination And Analysis Of Dscovr-Eipc Satellite-Retrieved Radiance From Cloud Geometric And Optical Properties, Emily Christine Morgan

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Using simulations and numerical fitting, this work sought to describe the satellite-retrieved radiance of clouds as a function of their thermodynamic and optical properties. Subsequently, this understanding can then be used in a look-up-table to determine the properties of clouds imaged by the EPIC sensor in the NASA DSCOVR satellite. In this study, background oxygen absorption was modeled in a radiative transfer model and convolved with EPIC filter functions for two absorption-reference pairs for Oxygen A- and B-band. This absorption profile was established as the primary vertical coordinate in this study, leveraging the similarity principle to allow for intercomparison of …

Tropical Cyclone Intensification Under Moderate Vertical Wind Shear, Rosimar Rios-Berrios

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Deep-layer (200–850 hPa) vertical wind shear is generally an inhibiting factor for tropical cyclone intensification. Multiple studies—ranging from case studies to climatological analyses—have consistently shown that the chances of tropical cyclone intensification decrease with increasing vertical wind shear magnitude. However, tropical cyclones can intensify under moderate shear—the range of shear magnitudes that are neither too weak to have negligible influence on intensity nor too strong to completely halt intensification. Intensity, track, and precipitation forecasts of tropical cyclones under moderate shear can be highly uncertain; therefore, explaining how tropical cyclones evolve under seemingly unfavorable conditions is an important step towards improved …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2016, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Large Fires Impact Region

Heavy Rains Bring Flooding to Montana

Isolated Impacts to Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

On The Propagation Of Atmospheric Gravity Waves In A Non-Uniform Wind Field: Introducing A Modified Acoustic-Gravity Wave Equation, Ahmad Talaei

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Atmospheric gravity waves play fundamental roles in a broad-range of dynamical processes extending throughout the Earth’s neutral atmosphere and ionosphere. In this paper, we present a modified form for the acoustic-gravity wave equation and its dispersion relationships for a compressible and non-stationary atmosphere in hydrostatic balance. Importantly, the solutions have been achieved without the use of the well-known Boussinesq approximation which have been used extensively in previous studies.

We utilize the complete set of governing equations for a compressible atmosphere with non-uniform airflows to determine an equation for vertical velocity of possible atmospheric waves. This intricate wave equation is simplified …

Version 1.3 Aim Sofie Measured Methane (Ch4): Validation And Seasonal Climatology, P. P. Rong, J. M. Russell Iii, B. T. Marshall, D. E. Siskind, M. E. Hervig, L. L. Gordley, P. F. Bernath, K. A. Walker

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

The V1.3 methane (CH₄) measured by the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) instrument is validated in the vertical range of ~25–70 km. The random error for SOFIE CH₄ is ~0.1–1% up to ~50 km and degrades to ~9% at ∼ 70 km. The systematic error remains at ~4% throughout the stratosphere and lower mesosphere. Comparisons with CH₄ data taken by the SCISAT Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and the Envisat Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) show an agreement within ~15% in the altitude range ~30–60 …

Impact Of Upper-Tropospheric Temperature Anomalies And Vertical Wind Shear On Tropical Cyclone Evolution Using An Idealized Version Of The Operational Gfdl Hurricane Model, Robert E. Tuleya, Morris Bender, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph R. Sirutis, Biju Thomas, Isaac Ginis

CCPO Publications

The GFDL hurricane modeling system, initiated in the 1970s, has progressed from a research tool to an operational system over four decades. This system is still in use today in research and operations, and its evolution will be briefly described. This study used an idealized version of the 2014 GFDL model to test its sensitivity across a wide range of three environmental factors that are often identified as key factors in tropical cyclone (TC) evolution: SST, atmospheric stability (upper-air thermal anomalies), and vertical wind shear (westerly through easterly). A wide range of minimum central pressure intensities resulted (905-980 hPa). The …

Droughtscape, Fall 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC welcome two to team

Third quarter drought summary: Drought still spreading

Third quarter drought impacts: It was a hot, dry summer

Drought management framework for Africa approved

MENA region update

US Virgin Islands one step closer to its own drought monitor

Montana looks to improve watershed resilience

Tournament tackles hazards

Web tool will help officials make drought-related decisions

Dry Horizons launches

Measuring Landfill Methane Emissions Using Satellite And Ground Data, Madjid Delkash, Bowen Zhou, Ramesh P. Singh

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Landfill methane emissions (LME) vary in short periods depending upon the meteorological and atmospheric conditions. In this paper, coupling the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) with the tracer dilution method (TDM) is proposed during unmeasured emission days to have a better annual estimation of the LME. Some assumptions were made to develop this proposed model. The atmospheric model Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) was employed to evaluate assumptions made during emission estimation using the proposed technique. Methane emissions of a landfill for 13 days during 2011–2013 were measured by the TDM and filtered to remove unreliable data. Then, the filtered data …

Umphlett Qci Sept 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Streamflow Conditions

Challenging Season for Bird Breeding

Mixed Impacts to Agriculture this Summer

Unprecedented Fish Kill on Yellowstone River

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Development Of A "Multi-Cut" Payload For Use In Stratospheric Ballooning Missions, James Flaten, Joey Habeck, Noah Biniek, Steven Smeaton, Austin Langford, Jordan Diers, Isaac Krieger

2017 Academic High Altitude Conference

The ability to cut strings (AKA lines) during stratospheric ballooning missions has a wide variety of uses including, but not limited to, (a) flight termination (i.e. cutting payloads away from the main balloon), (b) cutting away excess lift balloon(s) to slow ascent rate (and possibly achieve float), (c) cutting away ballast weights to slow descent rate or increase ascent rate, (d) cutting away burst balloon(s) on descent to avoid parachute entanglement, and (e) cutting away payloads which are intended to return to the ground independently, for experimental purposes. We report on the development of a “multi-cut” payload box that uses …

Analyzing Accuracy Of The Lufft Ws600 In Remotely Measuring Precipitation Events, Justin Gay

STAR Program Research Presentations

The goal of this project was to analyze the accuracy of the Lufft WS600 Weather Sensor in measuring the rate of both liquid and solid precipitation. Measurement accuracy, especially in remote locations, can be difficult to obtain and quantify. Wind, blowing debris, and atmospheric particles can all have the capacity to interfere with instruments that are not being continuously compared to manual observations. Access to quality precipitation data sets are important for both hydrologic and weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and understanding the role of water cycling through ecosystems. Commercially, weather sensors are heavily relied upon by the Federal Aviation Administration …

Wind Climatology: A Study Of Trends On Rodgers' Dry Lakebed, Dana Coppernoll-Houston

STAR Program Research Presentations

A number of smaller projects at the Armstrong Flight Research Center fly on or close to the ground and are subject to ground-level winds. Many of these are new prototype models, such as PRANDTL-D (Preliminary Research Aerodynamic Design to Lower Drag). Waiting for the right conditions on a day of variable winds can sometimes mean that teams fail to complete testing. A strategic analysis of wind behavior at a locations where winds can vary greatly due to terrain could lend insight into the best times to test for near-ground aircraft. The purpose of this project was to data mine historical …

Total Water Level And Wave Run Up Forecast, Eric Seymour

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

Drougthscape, Summer 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC adds two employees

Second quarter drought summary: Drought slowly spreading

Second quarter drought impacts: Drought intensifies across US

First comprehensive drought

indices guidebook released

Drought Impact Reporter updates increase usability

Create a custom DIR view

Drought center co-leads MENA region project

McCook, Nebraska, tackles drought resilience

Arizona groups improve public lands drought planning

NDMC founder Don Wilhite retires

Variations In Satellite Derived Sea Ice And Snow Coverage In The Arctic, Haylie N. Mikulak

UCARE: Research Products

The work is an investigation on the variations of satellite derived sea ice and snow cover extents in the Arctic region from 1979-2012. The NASA Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) Hemisphere Snow and Ice Earth System Data Record is examined in order to find variations of Northern Hemispheric sea ice and snow cover extents and impacts each extent may have not only on one another as well as the changing atmospheric conditions over the study period. Extent patterns and extreme circumstances defined by this study are identified in order for future studies to examine …

Applying Newton’S Law Of Cooling When The Target Keeps Changing Temperature, Such As In Stratospheric Ballooning Missions, James Flaten, Kaye Smith, Erick Agrimson

2017 Academic High Altitude Conference

Newton’s Law of Cooling describes how a “small” system, such as a thermometer, comes to thermal equilibrium with a “large” system, such as its environment, as a function of time. It is typically applied when the environment is in thermal equilibrium and the conditions are such that the thermal decay time for the thermometer is a constant. Neither of these conditions are met when measuring environmental (i.e. atmospheric) temperature using a thermometer mounted in a payload lofted into the stratosphere under weather balloons. In this situation the thermometer is in motion so it encounters layer after layer of atmosphere which …

Modeling And Satellite Remote Sensing Of The Meteorological Impacts Of Irrigation During The 2012 Central Plains Drought, Clint Aegerter

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

As irrigation is increasingly needed for agricultural production, it is becoming progressively more important to understand not only how irrigation impacts water availability, but how the introduction of this water into the soil impacts weather and climate through land-atmosphere interactions. In the summer of 2012, the Central Plains of the United States experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. This study examines the meteorological impacts of irrigation during this drought through observations and model simulations using the Community Land Model (CLM) coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A simple parameterization of irrigation processes is added …

Umphlett Qci June 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Snowpack and Streamflow

Limited Frost Damage to Crops this Spring

Wet Conditions Cause Mixed Impacts

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Droughtscape, Spring 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

First quarter drought summary

First quarter drought impacts

Drought Risk Management Research Center

Kenyan official visits

DrIVER eyes forecasting

Drought scenario exercise

Student projects

Drought tournament

Response and recovery guide

Drought Portal

Network of drought observers

Caribbean “writeshops”

Communications staff grows

Polarimetric Radar Signatures Of Supercell Thunderstorms In Tropical Cyclones, Emily Paltz, Matthew Van Den Broeke

UCARE: Research Products

Background It is necessary for operational meteorologists to forecast quickly and accurately when storms have the potential of producing severe weather such as tornadoes or hail. Presently, radar represents the most effective way to monitor storms in real time. The National Weather Service recently upgraded the national radar network to polarimetric capability. Much time and resources have been devoted to understanding the development of Great Plains supercells such that polarimetric radar schematics have been developed for them. Little, however, has been done for tropical cyclone supercells. In this study we wish to determine typical polarimetric radar structure for supercells in …

Umphlett Qci March 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Vegetation Conditions

Early Signs of Spring

Winter Wheat Breaks Dormancy

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Percent of Average Precipitation: Strong El Niños

Analysis Of The Precipitation Detection Algorithm For The Geonor T-200b Precipitation Gauge To Improve Accuracy, Megan Lerman, Robert K. Goodrich

STAR Program Research Presentations

In an effort to improve the precipitation detection algorithm for the Geonor All Weather Precipitation Gauge, an automated truth algorithm has been created to detect errors in the original algorithm. The original algorithm detects precipitation in real time and uses the rate of precipitation to indicate an event. The automated truth does not detect in real time, and focuses on precipitation accumulation to indicate an event. Since the automated truth is delayed, it is able to consider the data collected before and after the point it is analyzing. The automated truth is already more accurate than the original algorithm but …

Climate-Relevant Land Use And Land Cover Change Policies, Rezaul Mahmood, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Clive Mcalpine

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Both observational and modeling studies clearly demonstrate that land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) play an important biogeophysical and biogeochemical role in the climate system from the landscape to regional and even continental scales. Without comprehensively considering these impacts, an adequate response to the threats posed by human intervention into the climate system will not be adequate. Public policy plays an important role in shaping local- to national-scale land-use practices. An array of national policies has been developed to influence the nature and spatial extent of LULCC. Observational evidence suggests that these policies, in addition to international trade treaties and protocols, …

Support For Drought Response And Community Preparedness: Filling The Gaps Between Plans And Action, Kelly Helm Smith, Crystal J. Stiles, Michael Hayes, Christopher Carparelli

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

This chapter examines which levels of government handle various aspects of drought, as well as interactions between levels of government, providing examples from states across the western United States. It also takes a look at aspects of drought that fall outside traditional lines of authority and disciplinary boundaries. As part of a discussion on how states support local drought response, the chapter details and contrasts how California and Colorado track public water supply restrictions, and describes Colorado’s process for incorporating input from river basins across the state into its water plan. Case studies focus on drought planning in the Klamath …

Droughtscape, Winter 2016, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column

California drought FAQ

October-December 2015 drought

October-December 2015 impacts

2015 drought impacts in review

NDMC hiring geospatial analyst

CA drought exposes social vulnerability

UA helps Arizona ranchers, Forest Service work together

NDMC and partners help southern Plains ranchers manage drought

Chickasaw ranching workshop

Sensitivity Of Maize Yield Potential To Regional Climate In The Southwestern U.S., Seung Hee Kim, Boksoon Myoung, David Stack, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The sensitivity of maize yields to the regional climate in the Southwestern U.S. (SWUS) has been investigated by using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model in conjunction with meteorological forcings [daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin), precipitation, and radiation] from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Sensitivity experiments showed that potential crop production responded nonlinearly to variations in Tmax, Tmin, and downwelling solar radiation at the surface. Mean annual yield potential (Yp) was changed by -3.0 and 1.79 Mg ha-1 for the +1 and -1 standard deviations (σ) of Tmax variation for entire the SWUS. The …

Regional Variations Of Optimal Sowing Dates Of Maize For The Southwestern U.S., Boksoon Myoung, Seung Hee Kim, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Sowing date (SD) is sensitive to regional climate characteristics; thus, it is critical to systematically examine the effects of SD on crop yields for various temperature regimes. We performed a sensitivity study of SD for maize in the southwestern U.S. using the regionally extended version of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model. The model was run utilizing North American Regional Reanalysis at a 32 km resolution from 1991 to 2011, with an irrigation threshold at 95% of the soil water-holding capacity. Two types of SD optimizations maximizing yield potential (Yp), varying spatially or interannually, revealed that the optimal SD …