Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

Droughtscape, Summer 2019, Cory Matteson

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the Director

Quarterly drought summary

Quarterly drought impacts

NDMC welcomes African visitors

Ready for Drought game debuts

U.S. Virgin Islands added to USDM

Australian programmer visits NDMC

Upcoming events

Partnerships with NDMC extended

Application Of The Optimal Estimation Method (Oem) To Retrieve Relative Humidity From Raman Lidar Backscatter Measurements., Shayamila N. Mahagammulla Gamage, Robert Sica, Alexander Haefele

Western Research Forum

Accurate measurements of relative humidity (RH) vertical profiles in the atmosphere is important for understanding the earth's weather and the climate system. RH represent the current state of the water vapor in the atmosphere with respect to the ambient air related to saturation. Even minor changes of the RH in the lower atmosphere has a large impact of the global circulation and cloud formation. Due to its high variability RH measurements in the lower atmosphere is significantly challenging. Raman lidar is one of the potential tools that can provide vertical profiles of RH. Typically, temperature and water vapor mixing ratios …

Umphlett Qci June 2019, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Soil Moisture Conditions

Delayed/Prevented Planting

Impacts to Cattle

Damage to Infrastructure

Temperature

Precipitation

Intercomparison Of Small Unmanned Aircraft System (Suas) Measurements For Atmospheric Science During The Lapse-Rate Campaign, Lindsay Barbieri, Stephan T. Kral, Sean C. C. Bailey, Amy E. Frazier, Jamey D. Jacob, Joachim Reuder, David Brus, Phillip B. Chilson, Christopher Crick, Carrick Detweiler, Abhiram Doddi, Jack Elston, Hosein Foroutan, Javier González-Rocha, Brian R. Greene, Marcelo I. Guzman, Adam L. Houston, Ashraful Islam, Osku Kemppinen, Dale Lawrence, Elizabeth A. Pillar-Little, Shane D. Ross, Michael P. Sama, David G. Schmale Iii, Travis J. Schuyler, Ajay Shankar, Suzanne W. Smith, Sean Waugh, Cory Dixon, Steve Borenstein, Gijs De Boer

Chemistry Faculty Publications

Small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) are rapidly transforming atmospheric research. With the advancement of the development and application of these systems, improving knowledge of best practices for accurate measurement is critical for achieving scientific goals. We present results from an intercomparison of atmospheric measurement data from the Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation—a Remotely piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign. We evaluate a total of 38 individual sUAS with 23 unique sensor and platform configurations using a meteorological tower for reference measurements. We assess precision, bias, and time response of sUAS measurements of temperature, humidity, pressure, wind speed, and …

Using A Balloon-Launched Unmanned Glider To Validate Real-Time Wrf Modeling, Travis J. Schuyler, S. M. Iman Gohari, Gary Pundsack, Donald Berchoff, Marcelo I. Guzman

Chemistry Faculty Publications

The use of small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) for meteorological measurements has expanded significantly in recent years. SUAS are efficient platforms for collecting data with high resolution in both space and time, providing opportunities for enhanced atmospheric sampling. Furthermore, advances in mesoscale weather research and forecasting (WRF) modeling and graphical processing unit (GPU) computing have enabled high resolution weather modeling. In this manuscript, a balloon-launched unmanned glider, complete with a suite of sensors to measure atmospheric temperature, pressure, and relative humidity, is deployed for validation of real-time weather models. This work demonstrates the usefulness of sUAS for validating and improving …

Droughtscape, Spring 2019, Cory Matteson

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the Director

Wet and cool conditions bring drought relief to the West

Notable numbers from Q1

Drought impact summary, 1st quarter 2019

New research examines drought effects on state recreation areas

At Ethiopian space science workshop, NDMC climatologist sees promise in preparing for drought

U.S.- affiliated Pacific Islands now part of U.S. Drought Monitor

Water conservation tips for drought, flood and other disasters

Upcoming events

Coupled Atmospheric Surface Observations With Surface Aerosol Particle Counts For Daytime Sky Radiance Quantification, Scott S. Wolfmeyer

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigates the radiative transfer code, Laser Environmental Effects Definition and Reference (LEEDR), developed by the Center for Directed Energy at the Air Force Institute of Technology. Many multi- and hyperspectral applications are limited to the nighttime due in large part to daytime solar background noise and it is advantageous to be able to quantify this background noise using LEEDR. Real-time meteorological surface observations, numerical weather prediction, and aerosol particle concentrations were used to investigate the accuracy of LEEDR radiances simulations. Comparisons between simulations and measured values show that aerosol concentrations, weather predictions, and meteorological observations provide enough information …

Comparing Dual-Polarization Radar Lightning Forecast Methods Across Southwest Utah, Daniel O. Katuzienski

Theses and Dissertations

Lightning poses a significant hazard to space launch operations to include ground processing, launch window forecasts, and rocket-triggered lightning events. Two lightning initiation forecast methods using weather radar developed in Gremillion and Orville (1999) and Travis (2015) for Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida are tested in a new geographical region. This is accomplished by applying the highest-performing radar parameters from Gremillion and Orville (1999): reectivity (Z) ≥ 40 dBZ for two consecutive volume scans at the -10°C thermal height and Travis (2015): Z ≥ 36.5 dBZ with differential reflectivity (ZDR) ≥ 0.31 dB …

Umphlett Qci March 2019, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature Anomalies

Plains Snowpack

Agriculture

Energy

Transportation

Temperature

Precipitation

The Fire And Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment—A Plan For Integrated, Large Fire–Atmosphere Field Campaigns, Susan Prichard, N. Sim Larkin, Roger Ottmar, Nancy H.F. French, Kirk Baker, Tim Brown, Craig B. Clements, Matt Dickinson, Andrew Hudak, Adam Kochanski, Rod Linn, Yongqiang Liu, Brian Potter, William Mell, Danielle Tanzer, Shawn Urbanski, Adam Watts

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

The Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE) is designed to collect integrated observations from large wildland fires and provide evaluation datasets for new models and operational systems. Wildland fire, smoke dispersion, and atmospheric chemistry models have become more sophisticated, and next-generation operational models will require evaluation datasets that are coordinated and comprehensive for their evaluation and advancement. Integrated measurements are required, including ground-based observations of fuels and fire behavior, estimates of fire-emitted heat and emissions fluxes, and observations of near-source micrometeorology, plume properties, smoke dispersion, and atmospheric chemistry. To address these requirements the FASMEE campaign design includes a study …

Incorporating Uh Occurrence Time To Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities, Burkely T. Gallo, Adam J. Clark, Bryan T. Smith, Richard L. Thompson, Israel Jirak, Scott R. Dembek

United States Department of Commerce: Staff Publications

Probabilistic ensemble-derived tornado forecasts generated from convection-allowing models often use hourly maximum updraft helicity (UH) alone or in combination with environmental parameters as a proxy for right-moving (RM) supercells. However, when UH occurrence is a condition for tornado probability generation, false alarm areas can occur from UH swaths associated with nocturnal mesoscale convective systems, which climatologically produce fewer tornadoes than RM supercells. This study incorporates UH timing information with the forecast near-storm significant tornado parameter (STP) to calibrate the forecast tornado probability. To generate the probabilistic forecasts, three sets of observed climatological tornado frequencies given an RM supercell and STP …

Application Of A Hybrid Statistical–Dynamical System To Seasonal Prediction Of North American Temperature And Precipitation, Sarah Strazzo, Dan C. Collins, Andrew Schepen, Q. J. Wang, Emily Becker, Liweli Jia

Publications

Recent research demonstrates that dynamical models sometimes fail to represent observed teleconnection patterns associated with predictable modes of climate variability. As a result, model forecast skill may be reduced. We address this gap in skill through the application of a Bayesian postprocessing technique—the calibration, bridging, and merging (CBaM) method—which previously has been shown to improve probabilistic seasonal forecast skill over Australia. Calibration models developed from dynamical model reforecasts and observations are employed to statistically correct dynamical model forecasts. Bridging models use dynamical model forecasts of relevant climate modes (e.g., ENSO) as predictors of remote temperature and precipitation. Bridging and calibration …

Role Of Sea Surface Temperatures In Forcing Circulation Anomalies Driving U.S. Great Plains Pluvial Years, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C. Furtado, Elinor R. Martin, Xiangming Xiao

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

In the U.S. Great Plains (GP), diagnosing precipitation variability is key in developing an understanding of the present and future availability of water in the region. Building on previous work investigating U.S. GP pluvial years, this study usesERAtwentieth century (ERA-20C) reanalysis data to investigate key circulation anomalies driving GP precipitation anomalies during a subset of GP pluvial years (called in this paper Pattern pluvial years). With previous research showing links between tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and GP climate variability, this study diagnoses the key circulation anomalies through an analysis of SSTs and their influence on the atmosphere. …

A New Model For Lifting Condensation Levels Estimation, Nihad E. Daidzic

Aviation Department Publications

Knowledge of and the ability to predict lifting condensation levels (LCL) is important ingredient in weather predictions, cloud formation, planetary albedo and Earth’s energy balance. It is also essential topic in aviation safety and flight operations. In this article, we derive a new model of LCL and compare it to some older commonly-used models. This includes also the recently published Romps’ (2017) model. The new model presented here includes dependence, however weak, of the surface atmospheric pressure and the specific humidity on the LCL height and temperature. Such is not the case with widely used models and expressions by Espy …

Influence Of Land Cover And Soil Moisture Based Brown Ocean Effect On An Extreme Rainfall Event From A Louisiana Gulf Coast Tropical System, Udaysankar S. Nair, Eric Rappin, Emily Foshee, Warren Smith, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Rezaul Mahmood, Jonathan L. Case, Clay B. Blankenship, Marshall Shepherd, Joseph A. Santanello, Dev Niyogi

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Extreme flooding over southern Louisiana in mid-August of 2016 resulted from an unusual tropical low that formed and intensified over land. We used numerical experiments to highlight the role of the ‘Brown Ocean’ effect (where saturated soils function similar to a warm ocean surface) on intensification and it’s modulation by land cover change. A numerical modeling experiment that successfully captured the flood event (control) was modified to alter moisture availability by converting wetlands to open water, wet croplands, and dry croplands. Storm evolution in the control experiment with wet antecedent soils most resembles tropical lows that form and intensify over …

The Total Solar Eclipse Of 2017: Meteorological Observations From A Statewide Mesonet And Atmospheric Profiling Systems, Rezaul Mahmood, Megan Schargorodski, Eric Rappin, Melissa Griffin, Patrick Collins, Kevin Knupp, Andrew Quilligan, Ryan Wade, Kevin Cary, Stuart Foster

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

A total solar eclipse traversed 37 the continental United States on August 21, 2017. It 38 was the first such event in 99 years and provided a rare opportunity to observe the atmospheric response from a variety of instrumented observational platforms. This paper discusses the high quality observations collected by the Kentucky Mesonet (www.kymesonet.org), a research-grade meteorological and climatological observation network consisting of 72 stations and measuring air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, and wind direction. The network samples the atmosphere, for most variables, every three seconds and then calculates and records observations every five minutes. During …

Irrigation Impacts On Minimum And Maximum Surface Moist Enthalpy In The Central Great Plains Of The Usa, Tianyi Zhang, Rezaul Mahmood, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr.

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Agricultural activities notably alter weather and climate including near-surface heat content. However, past research primarily focused on dry bulb temperature without considering the role of water vapor (dew point temperature) on surface air heat content. When using dry bulb temperature trends to assess these changes, for example, not including concurrent trends in absolute humidity can lead to errors in the actual rate of warming or cooling. Here we examined minimum and maximum surface moist enthalpy, which can be expressed as “equivalent temperature.” Using hourly climate data in the Central Great Plains (Nebraska and Kansas) from 1990 to 2014, the averages …

Enhancing Acis Maps: Increasing Usability Through A Gis Portal, Natalie Umphlett, Warren Pettee, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC) is one of six NOAA Regional Climate Centers (RCCs) in the United States that aims to provide timely climate data and information to the public for cost-effective decision-making. As part of a three-tiered approach to climate services, the RCCs address needs on the national, regional, state, and local scales for a variety of sectors including agriculture, energy, natural resource management, research, transportation, and water resources. Working together, the RCCs develop and disseminate a wide range of valueadded climate products and services.

One of the HPRCC’s most popular products is the Applied Climate Information …

Conducting A Drought-Specific Thira (Threat And Hazard Identification And Risk Assessment): A Powerful Tool For Integrating All-Hazard Mitigation And Drought Planning Efforts To Increase Drought Mitigation Quality, Elliot Wickham, Deborah J. Bathke, Tarik Abdel-Monem, Tonya K. Bernadt, Denise Bulling, Lisa M. Pytlikzillig, Crystal J. Stiles, Nicole Wall

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

In the United States, drought is the second costliest natural disaster, which leads to the need for increased drought mitigation efforts over time. However, drought planning has lagged behind other hazard mitigation efforts, which is likely due to the lack of a national drought planning policy. Although the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requires all jurisdictions have a hazard mitigation plan (HMP) to receive pre-disaster mitigation funds, drought has only recently been a requirement in HMPs. In 2012, Nebraska witnessed its worse drought in recent history, which exposed the gaps in drought planning effectiveness at all jurisdictional levels. To address …

Wake Vortex Pair Formation As An Analog For Dust Devil And Tornado Genesis, Robert L. Ash

Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Faculty Publications

In 1966, meteorologist R.S. Scorer attempted to explain how large-scale oceanic tropical depressions become hurricanes or typhoons. His model was based on the idea that when these large-scale tropical depression structures begin to rotate, mostly due to Coriolis effects, an annular outer portion of that structure changes suddenly to a potential vortex segment, with the same outer radial limit as the low-pressure structure, but with an inner radius that conserves the overall system angular momentum and kinetic energy. By analogy with the "jump" instability describing sudden buckling of a vertical column, this paper shows that his conjecture merits additional consideration. …

A New York State Mesonet Based Analysis Of Squall Line Cold Pool Strength And Uses For Short Term Forecasting, Daniel William Reese

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The recently finished New York State Mesonet (NYSM) has a network of 126 standard surface sites and 17 vertical profiler sites across the state. This high density network allows for a wide range of potential uses in research and operational forecasting. One such use is in the area of severe thunderstorm forecasting, where mesoscale and storm scale features can become highly important. This thesis examines three case studies, events from 2017-2018 that produced long-lived, high impact squall lines which moved across the state. As the squall line’s cold pool has long been recognized to play a critical role in squall …

A Revised Technique For Measuring Vertical Velocity Using Dropsondes, Timothy Connor Nelson

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The earliest iterations of dropsondes in the 1960's obtained vertical velocity by measuring the geometric fall speed of the dropsonde and the true airspeed (TAS) of the dropsonde from a pitot-static. The vertical velocity errors from this methodology were claimed to be ±1 m s-1. Subsequent dropsonde iterations used various forms of the drag force equation to obtain vertical velocity. The accuracy of these drag force-based measurements, however, are also quite large at ±1–2 m s-1. In this dissertation, an attempt is made to improve vertical velocity errors by revisiting and revising the pitot-static-derived TAS methodology on the eXpendable Digital …

Influence Of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs On Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change And Structure : Observational, Reanalysis, And Idealized Numerical Modeling Perspectives, Casey Peirano

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The interaction between tropical cyclones (TCs) and upper-tropospheric troughs is a

Droughtscape, Winter 2019, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the Director

Drought intensified in California and Nevada, eased elsewhere

Year in Review: Drought spread and intensified in the West; record precipitation in the East

Drought impact summary for 4th quarter 2018

Drought impact summary 2018

Five states began drought plan updates in 2018

New web-based form makes submitting drought observations easier

FEMA risk assessment process tailored for drought

Upcoming events

An Overview And Evaluation Of Synthetc: A Statistical Model For Extra-Tropical Cyclones, Rafael Uryayev

Dissertations and Theses

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the most common weather phenomena affecting the United States, Canada, and Europe. They can pose serious hazards over large swaths of area. In this thesis, a statistical model of ETCs, called SynthETC, is discussed. The model accounts for the for genesis, track path, termination, and intensity of statistically generated ETCs. Genesis is modeled as a Poisson process, whose mean is determined by climate and historical information. Tracks are modeled as a regression-mean determined by climate and historical information plus a stochastic component. Lysis is modeled using logistic regression, with climate states as covariates. Intensity is modeled …

A New Model For Lifting Condensation Levels Estimation, Nihad E. Daidzic Ph.D., Sc.D.

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Knowledge of and the ability to predict lifting condensation levels (LCL) is important ingredient in weather predictions, cloud formation, planetary albedo and Earth’s energy balance. It is also essential topic in aviation safety and flight operations. In this article, we derive a new model of LCL and compare it to some older commonly-used models. This includes also the recently published Romps’ (2017) model. The new model presented here includes dependence, however weak, of the surface atmospheric pressure and the specific humidity on the LCL height and temperature. Such is not the case with widely used models and expressions by Espy …

Adding Value To Numerical Weather Predictions For The Aviation Industry In South Africa., Quinton Jacobs Mr., Willem A. Landman Prof.

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

The main objective of this study is to determine whether human forecasters at the main airports of South Africa add value to the raw numerical weather prediction model output when they provide forecast services to the aviation industry. Dataset pairs of weather observations made at these airports and terminal aerodrome forecasts are constructed for three forecast systems: the human forecasters, persistence forecast and the raw output from the 12 km resolution Unified Model administered by the South African Weather Service. These three dataset pairs are independently evaluated by a forecast verification system developed at the South African Weather Service. A …

On Atmospheric Lapse Rates, Nihad E. Daidzic

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

We have derived and summarized and most important atmospheric temperature lapse rates. ALRs essentially govern vertical atmospheric air stability and creation of some cloud types. The sensitivity analysis of various atmospheric lapse rates and their dependence on actual ideal-gas air properties and gravitational attraction was conducted for the first time to the best of our knowledge. SALR, which has DALR as the upper asymptote, showed steepest decrease at around 9 degrees Celsius then flattening out and apparently approaching another asymptotic solution which has not been investigated as it falls outside of the terrestrial temperature range. ISA lapse rates are adopted …

Spatial And Temporal Analysis Of The 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak In Central Alabama, Whitney Flynn, Tanveer Islam

Research, Publications & Creative Work

This study investigates the spatial and temporal patterns of the 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak in Central Alabama. Disasters, and vulnerabilities to such events, vary across space and time. The 2011 Super Outbreak was the largest, most costly, and one of the most deadly tornado outbreaks ever recorded in U.S. history. In this study, the results of 29 documented tornado tracks (889 data points total) in Central Alabama reveal findings related to complex topography and its effects on tornado intensity. The temporal pattern s of this particular outbreak are - consistent with other studies’ evidence that suggests a small peak …

Coupling Between Land–Ocean–Atmosphere And Pronounced Changes In Atmospheric/Meteorological Parameters Associated With The Hudhud Cyclone Of October 2014, Akshansa Chauhan, Rajesh Kumar, Ramesh P. Singh

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

India is vulnerable to all kinds of natural hazards associated with land, ocean, biosphere, atmosphere, and snow/glaciers. These natural hazards impact large areas and the population living in the affected regions. India is surrounded by ocean on three sides and is vulnerable to cyclonic activities. Every year cyclones hit the east and west coasts of India, affecting the population living along the coasts and infrastructure and inland areas. The extent of the affected inland areas depends on the intensity of the cyclone. On 12 October 2014, a strong cyclone “Hudhud” hit the east coast of India that caused a high …