Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

Project Minerva, Lena Wang, Gannon English, Ethan Yemm, Gabrielle Guirguis, Jose Murphy

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Project Minerva is a multidisciplinary engineering initiative at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU) dedicated to the design, integration, and deployment of high-altitude balloon (HAB) systems for stratospheric research and aerospace hardware validation. The project challenges student researchers to engineer flight-ready payloads capable of maintaining structural and electronic integrity in extreme temperatures and low-pressure environments in the stratosphere. Typically utilizing 600g latex balloons filled with helium, Project Minerva missions aim to achieve altitudes exceeding 22,000 meters to facilitate vertical atmospheric profiling of variables such as CO₂ concentration, humidity, temperature, and pressure. Beyond its technical objectives, the project serves as a professional training …

Clearing The Air: Tracking Spatial And Temporal Pm2.5 Variability Along A Biking Transect In Chicago, Beau R. Rass

DePaul Discoveries

Fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) poses significant risks to human health and disproportionately affects marginalized communities in urban environments (World Health Organization [WHO], 2021; Tessum et al., 2021). Using low-cost mobile sensors, this study explored spatiotemporal PM₂.₅ concentration patterns along a north–south transect of Halsted Street in Chicago. A 2B Technologies Portable Aerosol Monitor (PAM) mounted on a bicycle was used to continuously record PM₂.₅ concentrations with associated GPS coordinates at approximately two-second intervals during 16 sampling events between 08-12-2025 and 10-05-2025. PM₂.₅ concentrations did not differ significantly among the South Side, West Loop, and North Side regions, contrary to the …

The Impact Of Madden-Julian Oscillation On Rainfall Variability In South Sulawesi And Its Implications For Science Education, Misbahuddin Mansur, Pariabti Palloan, Agus Susanto

Jurnal Pendidikan Sains

This study examined the relationship between the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and rainfall variability in South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia, using daily rainfall observations from 24 stations during 1990–2020. A quantitative observational design based on long-term climatological time-series analysis was employed. MJO activity was identified using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, while rainfall variability was analyzed through rainfall anomalies, rainfall frequency, and spatial patterns across Seasonal Zones (ZOM). The results indicate that active MJO phases were generally associated with wetter conditions and higher rainfall frequency, whereas suppressed phases corresponded to drier conditions. Rainfall responses varied considerably among regions, with coastal areas …

Clear-Air Turbulence Climatology And Trends, Liam Rodgers, Mark Sinclair

Publications

Clear‑air turbulence (CAT) is a major aviation hazard that occurs near airline cruising altitudes in both cloud and cloud‑free environments. Its lack of a distinct visual signature makes detection and avoidance difficult. CAT is associated with wind shear near jet streams, gravity waves, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability and may be further enhanced by climate change. This study examines the climatology, spatial distribution, seasonal variability, and trends of CAT over the contiguous United States.

Pilot Reports (PIREPs) from 2001–2025 between 100 and 400 hPa are analyzed alongside jet stream, shear, and stability diagnostics derived from NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis data. Proxies such as inverse …

An Analysis Of The Rapid Intensification Of Hurricane Milton, Ayden Rodriguez, Mark Sinclair

Publications

Hurricane Milton (October 2024) provides a compelling case study of a multiscale pathway to rapid intensification (RI), highlighting the alignment of synoptic preconditioning, favorable environmental conditions, and rapid inner-core structural evolution. The storm originated from the interaction of multiple tropical waves embedded within a low-level trough associated with the Central American Gyre, which enhanced low-level vorticity and moisture convergence prior to development. Upon entering the Gulf of Mexico, Milton encountered an environment characterized by anomalously warm sea surface temperatures, high ocean heat content, and weak vertical wind shear, enabling steady intensification and the onset of explosive RI that exceeded conventional …

Atmospheric Remote Sensing Using X-Band Radar In The Marine Atmospheric Surface Layer, Daniel P. Greenway

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric remote sensors have always offered promising technological advancements for measuring atmospheric properties over large spatial areas at high spatiotemporal resolution – a feat not currently possible with present atmospheric measurement technologies. However, remote sensors do not measure these atmospheric properties directly; they rely on robust calibrations or conversions, complex mathematical inversion methods, and/or machine learning to retrieve these properties. These inverse methods rely on the selection of an objective function, a machine learning technique, and an accurate parameterization for atmospheric property estimation. By leveraging inverse methods to improve the characterization of properties measured by remote sensors, this work enables …

Examining Extremes: A Comparison Between Machine Learning Based Southwestern Conus Seasonal Drought And High Fire Risk Event Synoptic Climatologies, Ethan M. Greenberg

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The Southwestern United States (SW CONUS), comprised of California, Arizona, Nevada, and Utah, is a vast region that tens of millions of people call home. Hosting ecosystems ranging from grasslands and shrublands to temperate forests and climate zones ranging from Mediterranean climates to arid deserts, the region is nearly unanimously prone to intense droughts and devastating wildfires. While fire weather conditions and drought are often studied separately or mentioned as background conditions for the other, there are relatively few studies that compare the typical meteorological conditions between the two. This study aims to more closely understand the meteorological relationship between …

Spatiotemporal Variability Of Differential Reflectivity (Zdr) Columns Due To Environment In Tornadic And Nontornadic Supercells, Adrianne J. Engel

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Polarimetric signatures have been of interest to researchers and operational forecasters since the completion of the WSR-88D network upgrade in 2013. Differential reflectivity (Z_DR) columns, which are collocated with supercell updrafts, are the focus of this study. Microphysical distributions within these signatures can be used to infer updraft strength and elucidate the processes responsible for updraft intensity and evolution. Z_DR column depth, areal extent, and variability of these metrics through space and time are assessed in a dataset of 114 nontornadic and tornadic supercells. Means of column metrics in nontornadic, non-tornado-producing, and tornado-producing analysis times are evaluated …

A Climatology Of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings And Their Tropospheric Response, Joe Lovelien, Mark Sinclair

Publications

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are major disruptions of the wintertime polar vortex that can significantly influence surface weather, including cold air outbreaks (CAOs) across the midlatitudes. This study presents a climatology of SSWs from 1948-2024 using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and examines their temporal distribution, relationships with large-scale climate variability, and impacts on surface temperatures in the United States. SSWs are identified using previously published definitions based on the reversal of zonal-mean winds at 60°N and 10 hPa. A total of 44 SSW events were identified, with a strong seasonal preference for January through March. Some decadal variability is observed, though …

Developing A Multi-Band Gnss Remote Sensing Station To Measure Precipitable Water Vapor For Flash Flood Nowcasting, Madison Gleydura

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Flash flood nowcasting in Central and Southern Appalachia is particularly challenging due to steep terrain, narrow valleys, highly localized rainfall patterns, and limited measurement coverage. Traditional remote sensing methods, such as Doppler radar and microwave radiometry, suffer from reduced resolution at long range and signal blockage by mountains. GNSS-meteorology offers an established alternative for measuring precipitable water vapor and is currently integrated into several numerical weather models. Recent research demonstrates that commercial-grade GNSS receivers can produce tropospheric products comparable to those from geodetic-grade equipment. The gaps in mountain coverage can be addressed by developing a low-cost, self-contained embedded system that …

Impact Of In Situ Observations From Three Torus Cases On Model Analyses And Forecasts Of Severe Convection, Robert M. Szot

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The quality of forecasts of severe deep convection in high-resolution numerical weather prediction is dependent on the representativeness of the model initial conditions. This representativeness may be negatively impacted by limited observation availability and by the presence of mesoscale heterogeneities that were not detected by conventional observations assimilated into convection-allowing models. By assimilating storm-scale observations from the Targeted Observation by Radars and Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (UAS) of Supercells (TORUS) campaign into an ensemble styled after the Warn-on-Forecast System, this study aims to investigate if data from field work platforms can improve the quality of initial conditions in the ensemble, potentially …

Projections Of The Characteristics Of Extreme Precipitation In East Africa Using Bias-Corrected Cmip6 Models, Exavery K. Makula

Tanzania Journal of Science

In the context of ongoing global climate change, the intensification of the hydrological cycle is expected to modify the frequency, magnitude, and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation events. Understanding how precipitation extremes will evolve under climate change is critical for East Africa (EA), a region highly vulnerable to hydroclimatic hazards and strongly dependent on rainfall-driven socioeconomic systems. The region experiences two main rainfall seasons, namely the long rains (March-May, MAM) and the short rains (October-December, OND). This study investigates future projections of the characteristics of extreme precipitation across the EA using an ensemble of biascorrected CMIP6 global climate models. Extreme …

Automated Machine Learning For High-Resolution Daily And Hourly Methane Emission Mapping For Rice Paddies Over South Korea: Integrating Modis, Era5-Land, And Soil Data, Jiah Jang, Seung Hee Kim, Menas Kafatos, Jaeil Cho, Gayoung Yoo, Sujong Jeong, Yangwon Lee

Institute for ECHO Articles and Research

Agriculture is a major global source of methane (CH4), and accurate emission estimates are essential for refining national greenhouse gas inventories and supporting climate-resilient policies. This study develops a high-resolution estimation framework for CH4 emissions from Korean rice paddies by integrating multi-source datasets, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5)-Land meteorological variables, and Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) soil properties. Using CH4 flux observations from four global rice ecosystems (Italy, Japan, South Korea, and USA), we constructed parallel daily and hourly machine learning models using an automated machine …

A Systematic Literature Review On The Influence Of The El Niño Southern Oscillation On Rainfall Variability In Central Java, Indonesia, Sri Endah Ardhi Ningrum Abdullah, Trinah Wati, Wahyu Hardyanto

Jurnal Pendidikan Geografi: Kajian, Teori, dan Praktek dalam Bidang Pendidikan dan Ilmu Geografi

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon greatly influences rainfall variability in tropical regions, including Central Java, Indonesia. This study employs a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) approach in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines. This study examines 50 articles from 2010 to 2025, as well as conducting a bibliometric analysis using VOSviewer, to identify trends and the evolution of themes. The results of the study indicate that El Niño generally reduces rainfall and increases the risk of drought, while La Niña tends to increase rainfall, potentially causing flooding. The impacts of ENSO extend to agriculture, food security, and water management, and are …

The Effects Of Downdraft And Radial Ventilation In Hurricanes Earl (2010) And Edouard (2014), Jacob Vile

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change in moderate vertical wind shear (VWS) is difficult to predict. Specifically, ventilation, the intrusion of dry and/or cool (i.e., low equivalent potential temperature (theta-e) air inside the TC, can have differing effects on TCs. Downdraft ventilation is the downward transport of below-mean  theta-e air by downdrafts, and radial ventilation is the inward transport of below-mean theta-e air by storm-relative radial winds. If this low theta-e air is able to get ingested by updrafts, it can result in a reduction of convection in the TC, thereby reducing intensity. Although most studies of ventilation have been conducted …

Key Processes Involved In The Vortex Alignment Of Sheared Tropical Cyclones, Luis O. Hernandez

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are challenging to forecast when under vertical wind shear (VWS). VWS tilts a TC’s vortex, creating asymmetries in its structure that impedes intensification. Although work has been done to conceptualize and understand how TCs evolve under shear and how they axisymmetrize and intensify, vortex alignment remains a complex and unresolved topic. The goal of this study is to assess what physical processes are important to tilt reduction and how these processes evolve in weak TCs. Using the Hurricane Analysis Forecast System Model-B (HAFS-B) 2.1, a case study on two storms, Hurricane Earl (2022) and Hurricane Lee (2023) …

The Impact Of Downdraft Ventilation On Tropical Cyclone Intensity And Structure Using Aerial Reconnaissance Observations, Nicholas E. Johnson

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity can be challenging to predict since it is modulated by many physical processes. One of these processes is ventilation: the injection of relatively cool, dry environmental air into the warm core of a TC that acts as “anti-fuel”, inhibiting intensification and increasing uncertainty with intensity forecasts. While ventilation has been examined in numerical modeling studies, there have been a limited number of observational studies investigating ventilation. The two primary objectives of this dissertation are to develop methods for measuring downdraft ventilation from aerial reconnaissance observations and to use those observations to better understand how ventilation affects …

Liutex - A Fluid Vortex, Oscar Alvarez

Mathematics Dissertations

Fluid vortices are found everywhere in our universe. A vortex can take the form of almost anything - from the classical spiral vortex to chaotic plumes. Defining a vortex physically and mathematically is absolutely necessary if we desire to study vortices and their interactions with each other as well as our physical world. Fluid vortices are incredibly important in the study of turbulent flows. From determining wear, optimizing design for better flow, efficiency, etc., to even predicting the weather on Earth or other planets, having the ability to measure vortices in fluid flow is invaluable. In this study, I investigate …

Linking Boundary Type, Storm Mode, And Tornado Intensity In Illinois, Jakob Barton

A with Honors Projects

A large dataset of tornadoes across Illinois from 2007-2024 were analyzed for different characteristics of thunderstorms and tornadoes, these characteristics were then compared with each other to find correlation and trends.

Applications Of Machine Learning For Evaluating Downward-Coupled Stratosphere-Troposphere Interactions And Subseasonal Forecasts Of Opportunity, Elena M. Fernandez

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Wintertime stratospheric dynamics provide key information for understanding atmospheric teleconnections and improving subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions on timescales of two weeks to two months. Periods of enhanced predictability, often referred to as forecasts of opportunity, arise from large-scale teleconnected variability, within which the stratosphere serves as an important precursor for tropospheric states, such as near-surface temperatures. While traditional diagnostics of downward coupled stratosphere-troposphere interactions typically rely on zonal-mean representations of wind and geopotential height, this dissertation presents an alternative vortex-centric framework through metrics that capture the daily geometric and dynamical evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex. The proposed stratospheric …

Drivers Of Extreme Streamflow During A Snowmelt-Enhanced Heavy Rainfall And Atmospheric River Event In The Catskill Mountains Of New York, Christopher A. Gilberti

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

This study uses atmospheric reanalysis, precipitation and snow water equivalent (SWE) analyses, mesonet observations, and streamflow records to examine the impact of an atmospheric river storm that produced heavy rainfall and snowpack ablation across the Catskill Mountains of New York on 24–25 December 2020. Earlier in December, an antecedent storm produced SWE values in the Catskills above the 90^th percentile for that point in the season. The atmospheric river event followed with strong southerly warm-air advection ahead of an anomalously deep trough, temperatures and dewpoints that exceeded 10°C, and heavy orographically enhanced rainfall and rapid snowmelt. Sensible heat fluxes …

An Objective Method To Locate Shear Lines During The Northeast Monsoon Season In The Philippines, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, John A. Manalo, Jun Matsumoto, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Jose Ramon T. Villarin

SOSE Affiliate: Manila Observatory

The shear line is a narrow zone of maximum horizontal wind shear, typically identified as a confluence zone of low-level wind streams. Previous studies showed that this system can trigger heavy to extreme rainfall events in the Philippines during the northeast monsoon season. However, a research gap remains in objectively identifying and locating this system. Thus, this study develops a detection method that may be used for monitoring and forecasting the location of shear lines. Results show that the gradient of meridional winds in the y-direction (∂V925hPa/∂y), the boundary layer moisture flux convergence, and the 925 hPa relative vorticity may …

Stream Temperature Responses To Summer Urban Rain Events Along The Savannah River, Joseph E. Wermter, Vivian L. Turner, Max K. Appelbaum, James M. Shepherd, Jacob Z. Lott

Journal of South Carolina Water Resources

The hydrological urban heat island (HUHI) is a recent facet of the urban heat island (UHI), describing thermal enhancement of bodies of water in response to urbanization. Although the forefront of this work has been studied for large Metropolitan areas, this effect on developing cities is currently unknown. To locally measure and quantify HUHI effects in a developing city, we utilized Multi-Radar Multi Sensor (MRMS) radar-derived rainfall data to estimate rainfall in the Augusta Metropolitan Area (AMA) and the Savannah Metropolitan Area (SMA), two developing communities adjacent to the Savannah River. We analyzed mean temperature trends of two stream gauges …

Multimodel And Multidiagnostic Ensemble-Based Deep Convective Area Forecast For Aviation Operations Using The Global Unified Model And Korean Integrated Model, Yi-June Park, Jung-Hoon Kim, Dan-Bi Lee, Hyun-Joo Choi, Soo-Hyun Kim, Matthias Steiner, Seung Hee Kim

Institute for ECHO Articles and Research

To provide safe and efficient guidance for aircraft operation to avoid deep convective areas (DCAs) in Korea and broader East Asia, we developed a multimodel and multidiagnostic ensemble (MMDE)-based forecast system. This system utilizes two global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models based on the Unified Model (UM) and the Korean Integrated Model (KIM) operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration. To predict hazardous weather conditions, we defined DCAs using ground-based radar mosaic data where the 15-dBZ echo-top height exceeds flight level (FL) 250 (about z = 6.5 km) and FL350 (about z = 9 km). For predictors, we employed a …

Low-Level Polarimetric Signatures Of Supercells During Ef3+ Tornado Production, Anthony Noah Began

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Most EF3+ tornadoes are produced by supercells. Understanding of microscale features surrounding intense tornado production remains limited. This research aims to determine commonalities in low-level microphysical processes during intense tornado production via polarimetric radar signature assessment with a Python-based algorithm. Polarimetric variables hypothesized to reflect low-level wind profiles such as the differential reflectivity (Z_DR) arc and the Z_DR–K_DP (specific differential phase) separation vector will be investigated. Supercells which produced EF3+ tornadoes will be examined since these tornadoes pose the highest threat. From 2010 to 2024, the United States recorded approximately 19,100 tornadoes which resulted in …

Environmental Controls Of Hail In Quasi-Linear Convective Systems, Cameron A. Barker

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

A study of hail occurrence in quasi-linear convective systems (QLCS), as well as severe weather parameters contributing to the likelihood and intensity of hail, is presented. Rapid Refresh (RAP) proximity soundings for 218 QLCS events from 2012 to 2022 are selected to sample QLCS environments near peak intensity. Study objectives are to assess common environmental parameter spaces that favor hail in QLCSs while connecting these findings to results for supercells. Hail occurrence is also examined in terms of synoptic regime.

Six synoptic regimes were identified to support QLCSs with hail, from high shear, low cape (HSLC) to low shear, high …

A Uas-Centered Investigation Of Vorticity Characteristics And Cold Pool Structure Across Forward And Left-Flank Boundaries In Supercells, Mark R. De Bruin

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Supercell internal boundaries are the locus of tornadogenesis; thus, understanding the characteristics of these boundaries, particularly in terms of vorticity, is important for identifying the role they play in tornado formation. Insight into the overall characteristics of internal boundaries and their possible role in tornadogenesis have been driven by studies reliant on numerical modeling-based experiments. Observational studies often neglect above-surface conditions or, when these observations are made, lack the spatial resolution to resolve boundary characteristics. During TORUS (Targeted Observation by Radars and UAS of Supercells) 2019 and TORUS-LItE (TORUS Left-flank Intensive Experiment) 2023, uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) and mobile mesonets …

Influence Of Tropical Cyclones, Southwest Monsoon, And Tropical Cyclone-Enhanced Southwest Monsoon On Rainfall Variability Over The Western Coast Of The Philippines, Alwin Bathan, Lyndon Mark Olaguera, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Jose Ramon T. Villarin, Joel T. Maquiling, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, John A. Manalo, Jun Matsumoto

SOSE Affiliate: Manila Observatory

This study investigates the processes driving interannual variability of rainfall over the western coast of the Philippines during the peak southwest monsoon (SWM) months (July–September) from 1961 to 2022. Specifically, it describes how tropical cyclones (TC), SWM, and TC-enhanced SWM influence SWM rainfall variability. Rainfall measurements from 11 stations along the western coast of the Philippines were classified into three types: direct TC rainfall (PD), indirect TC rainfall (PI), and SWM rainfall (PSM). The yearly contributions of PD, PI, and PSM to SWM rainfall were estimated to be 15.4 %, 33.1 %, and 51.5 %, respectively. Furthermore, four rainfall variability …

Investigating The Role Of Aerosols In Extreme Precipitation Events Along The Gulf Coast Of The U.S.A., Wenjia Cao

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Atmospheric aerosols have been found to influence tropical cyclone (TC) and flood event development. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model is applied to investigate specific microphysical impacts and aerosol sensitivity to heavy precipitation and TC events in the U.S. Gulf Coastal area. The Thompson aerosol-aware scheme with regular and adjusted aerosol concentration scenarios is used to quantify precipitation, wind field, horizontal/vertical structures, and track variations, by aerosol mixing ratio. In general, results for the three storms analyzed (the 2016 Baton Rouge, Louisiana, flood event (Chapter 2); Hurricane Harvey in 2017 (Chapter 3); and an idealized storm event …

Estimating The Future Frequency Of Bonnet Carré Spillway Openings, Kayla Thomas

LSU Master's Theses

In the 2010s, the Bonnet Carré Spillway (BCS) in southeastern Louisiana, U.S.A., experienced an unprecedented uptick in openings to mitigate the possibility of flooding, including a record double-opening in 2019. Both the environmental consequences of BCS openings associated with nutrients that run from the Mississippi River into Lake Pontchartrain and the synoptic-scale meteorological conditions that necessitate these openings are poorly understood. With the unexpectedly frequent openings in recent years and the ever-present threat of climate change, it is vital to consider the future shift of synoptic-scale climate patterns and how it can relate to BCS openings. Understanding the potential for …