Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

Droughtscape, Spring 2008, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

San Angelo, April 24

Winter Sees Little Change in U.S. Drought

News Stories Reveal Array of Mitigation Strategies

NIDIS Wants You!

Sea Surface Temperatures Can Help Predict Drought

About DroughtScape

Recent Travels

From Debate To Design: Issues In Clean Energy And Climate Change Law And Policy, Leslie Parker, Jennifer Ronk, Rachel Maxwell, Bradford Gentry, Marijn Wilder, James Cameron

Yale School of the Environment Publications Series

A report on the work of the REIL Network 2007-2008

Sustainability In A Time Of Climate Change: Developing An Intensive Research Framework For The Platte River Basin And The High Plains Proceedings From The 2008 Climate Change Workshop, Monica Norby, Ashley Washburn

Office of Research and Economic Development: Publications

Proceedings from the 2008 Climate change Workshop, Nebraska Sandhills, May 19-22, 2008. Hosted by the University of Nebraska–Lincoln and the U.S. Geological Survey

First Observations Of Turbulence Generated By Grass Fires, Craig Clements, Shiyuan Zhong, Xindi Bian, Warren Heilman, Daewon Byun

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Wildland fires radically modify the atmospheric boundary layer by inducing strong fire-atmosphere interactions. These interactions lead to intense turbulence production in and around the fire front. Two field experiments were conducted in tall-grass fuels to quantify turbulence generation during the passage of wind-driven fire fronts. Observations showed that the measured turbulence generated by the fires was five times greater than the turbulence in the ambient environment. The production of the turbulence at the surface near the fire front was caused by increased variance of the ambient wind, while the buoyancy was strongest at higher levels within the fire plume. Immediately …

Metcrax 2006 - Meteorological Experiments In Arizona's Meteor Crater, C. David Whiteman, Sebastian Hoch, Maura Hahnenberger, Andreas Muschinski, Vincent Hohreiter, Mario Behn, Yonghum Cheon, Sharon Zhong, Wenqing Yao, David Fritts, Craig Clements, Thomas Horst, William Brown, Steven Oncley

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

The Meteor Crater Experiment (METCRAX 2006) was conducted in October 2006 at Arizona's Meteor Crater to investigate stable boundary layer evolution in a topographically uncomplicated basin surrounded by the nearly homogeneous plain of the Colorado Plateau. The two goals of the experiment were 1) to investigate the microscale and mesoscale structure and evolution of the stable boundary layer in the crater and its surroundings and 2) to determine whether atmospheric seiches or standing waves are produced inside the crater. This article provides an overview of the scientific goals of the experiment; summarizes the research measurements, the crater topography, and the …

Sampling Of Malodorous Compounds In Air Using Stir Bar Sorbtive Extraction, John H. Loughrin, Nanh Lovanh, Arturo I. Quintanar, Rezaul Mahmood

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Twisters, (poly)‐dimethylsiloxane‐coated magnetic stir bars, were used to measure compounds typical of swine manure malodor in air. In initial experiments, a time to achieve equilibrium was determined by preloading the stir bars with ten compounds with a range of volatilities and polarities and then monitoring their loss. The rate of loss was dependent on compound volatility, and the time for equilibrium to be attained varied widely, from 22 min for phenol to 210 min for skatole. To test whether the Twisters would respond linearly over a range of concentrations, the stir bars were placed in vented jars with solutions of …

Droughtscape, Winter 2008, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Now Up & On-Line:

Winter 2008 Outlook and Oct.-Dec. ’07 Summary

NDMC Experts Serve as Resource for Media

Drought Hits Ag and Urban Interests in 2007

Climatological Summary of Drought in 2007

NDMC Welcomes Data Miner Bo Zhang

New Grant Awards

Forcing Mechanisms For Washoe Zephyr - A Daytime Downslope Wind Phenomenon In The Great Basin East Of The Sierra Nevada, Shiyuan Zhong, Ju Li, Craig Clements, Stephan Dewekker, Xindi Bian

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

This paper investigates the formation mechanisms for a local wind phenomenon known as Washoe Zephyr that occurs frequently in the lee of the Sierra Nevada. Unlike the typical thermally driven slope flows with upslope wind during daytime and downslope at night, the Washoe Zephyr winds blow down the lee slopes of the Sierra Nevada in the afternoon against the local pressure gradient. Long-term hourly surface wind data from several stations on the eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada and rawinsonde sounding data in the region are analyzed and numerical simulations are performed to test the suggested hypotheses on the formation …

Diagnosis Of The July 6, 2002 Ogallala, Nebraska Flash Flood, David B. Radell, Mark R. Anderson, John W. Stoppkotte, James R. Mccormick

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

During the early morning hours of 6 July 2002, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) traversed southwestern Nebraska and produced more than 40 cm of precipitation, resulting in a flash flood that closed Interstate 80 and caused one fatality near Ogallala, Nebraska. Regional climatology yields that this flash flood ranked first in precipitation amount for a 24 hour period over the past one hundred years. Synoptic and mesoscale features similar to other flash flooding events and conducive to extremely heavy precipitation were in place over the Central Plains, including a weak upper level ridge, high precipitable water values (180% of normal), …

Droughtscape, Fall 2007, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Fall 2007 Outlook

Diverse Impacts Reported in Summer of 2007

Decadal Climate Cycles Hold Predictive Potential

Drought Experts Take Roadmap to Congress

NDMC Research Updates

Multimodel Projections Of Stratospheric Ozone In The 21st Century, V. Eyring, D. W. Waugh, G. E. Bodeker, Eugene C. Cordero, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, S. R. Beagley, B. A. Boville, P. Braesicke, C. Brühl, N. Butchart, M. P. Chipperfield, M. Dameris, R. Deckert, M. Deushi, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, D. E. Kinnison, E. Mancini, E. Manzini, D. R. Marsh, S. Matthes, T. Nagashima, P. A. Newman, J. E. Nielsen, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, J. F. Scinocca, K. Semeniuk, T. G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, B. Steil, R. S. Stolarski, W. Tian, M. Yoshiki

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

[1] Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of …

Droughtscape, Summer 2007, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Summer 07 Outlook

Hayes Named Director of NDMC

NDMC & UN Plan for Drought

Book Review: The Worst Hard Time

Drought Tools Workshops Underway

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum October 10-11, 2007 Portland, Oregon

Climate. Stern Review: The Economics Of Climate Change, Nicholas Stern

New England Journal of Public Policy

This chapter examines the increasingly serious impacts on people as the world warms. Climate change is a serious and urgent issue. The Earth has already warmed by 0.7°C since around 1900 and is committed to further warming over coming decades simply due to past emissions. On current trends, average global temperatures could rise by 2–3°C within the next fifty years or so, with several degrees more in the pipeline by the end of the century if emissions continue to grow. This chapter examines how the physical changes in climate . . . affect the essential components of lives and livelihoods …

Droughtscape, Spring 2007, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

2007 Spring Drought Outlook & Winter Summary

VegDRI Expands to 15 States, Refines Views

DroughtScape

State Spotlight: Utah

International Panel Foresees Drought as Part of Climate Change

NIDIS Portal Advancing

An Ozone-Modified Refractive Index For Vertically Propagating Planetary Waves, Terrence R. Nathan, Eugene C. Cordero

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

[1] An ozone-modified refractive index (OMRI) is derived for vertically propagating planetary waves using a mechanistic model that couples quasigeostrophic potential vorticity and ozone volume mixing ratio. The OMRI clarifies how wave-induced heating due to ozone photochemistry, ozone transport, and Newtonian cooling (NC) combine to affect wave propagation, attenuation, and drag on the zonal mean flow. In the photochemically controlled upper stratosphere, the wave-induced ozone heating (OH) always augments the NC, whereas in the dynamically controlled lower stratosphere, the wave-induced OH may augment or reduce the NC depending on the detailed nature of the wave vertical structure and zonal mean …

Agricultural Climatology, Kenneth G. Hubbard

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

With the diversification of the U.S. economy over the past century, agriculture has changed. We can say the farm sizes have increased over time, the number of farmers and those employed in farming have decreased over time, and as the economy has grown the relative contribution of agriculture to the total economy has decreased due to growth in other sectors. The farm prices have not changed significantly over many years while costs for energy, machinery, and land have generally increased. The combination of these factors has generally narrowed the profit margin and the highest productivity will no longer ensure the …

Droughtscape, Winter 2007, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

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Policy Update: NIDIS is Law. What’s Next?

What Would You Like to See?

TX, OK, Plains, Southwest Hardest Hit in 2006

Climatologically Speaking, How Bad Was It?

State Spotlight: Arizona

Drought Decision-Support Tools Evolving

Stratospheric Variability And Trends In Models Used For The Ipcc Ar4, P. M. De F. Forster, Eugene Cordero

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are analyzed to better understand model variability and assess the importance of various forcing mechanisms on stratospheric trends during the 20th century. While models represent the climatology of the stratosphere reasonably well in comparison with NCEP reanalysis, there are biases and large variability among models. In general, AOGCMs are cooler than NCEP throughout the stratosphere, with the largest differences in the tropics. Around half the AOGCMs have a top level beneath ~2 hPa and show a significant cold bias in their …

Assessment Of Temperature, Trace Species, And Ozone In Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations Of The Recent Past, V. Eyring, N. Butchart, D. W. Waugh, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, S. Bekki, G. E. Bodeker, B. A. Boville, C. Brühl, M. P. Chipperfield, E. Cordero, M. Dameris, M. Deushi, V. E. Fioletov, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, V. Grewe, L. Jourdain, D. E. Kinnison, E. Mancini, E. Manzini, M. Marchand, D. R. Marsh, T. Nagashima, P. A. Newman, J. E. Nielsen, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, T. G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, R. S. Stolarski, H. Struthers, W. Tian, M. Yoshiki

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

[1] Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960–2004). Comparisons of polar high-latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but …

A New Pathway For Communicating The 11-Year Solar Cycle Signal To The Qbo, Eugene C. Cordero, Terrence R. Nathan

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

[1] The response of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to zonal-mean ozone perturbations consistent with the 11-year solar cycle is examined using a 2 1/2 dimensional model of the tropical stratosphere. Unique to this model are wave-ozone feedbacks, which provide a new, nonlinear pathway for communicating solar variability effects to the QBO. Model simulations show that for zonal-mean ozone perturbations representative of solar maximum (minimum), the diabatic heating due to the wave-ozone feedbacks is primarily responsible for driving a slightly stronger (weaker) QBO circulation and producing a slightly shorter (longer) QBO period. These results, which are explained via an analytical …

Monsoon-Driven Biogeochemical Processes In The Arabian Sea, Jerry D. Wiggert, Raleigh Hood, Karl Banse, John Kindle

Faculty Publications

Although it is nominally a tropical locale, the semiannual wind reversals associated with the Monsoon system of the Arabian Sea result annually in two distinct periods of elevated biological activity. While in both cases monsoonal forcing drives surface layer nutrient enrichment that supports increased rates of primary productivity, fundamentally different entrainment mechanisms are operating in summer (Southwest) and winter (Northeast) Monsoons. Moreover, the intervening intermonsoon periods, during which the region relaxes toward oligotrophic conditions more typical of tropical environments, provide a stark contrast to the dynamic biogeochemical activity of the monsoons. The resulting spatial and temporal variability is great and …

Evaluating Spatial Variability Of Precipitation In Kentucky With Exploratory Data Analysis, Daniel Taylor

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Spatial variability of precipitation is examined over the state of Kentucky and surrounding areas. The study focuses on the analysis of monthly precipitation totals from the period of 1961-2000. The purpose of the study is to develop a set of indices to represent the spatial variability of the study area for a given month. Various exploratory data analysis methods such as variography, kriging, and cluster analysis were used. The study attempts to quantify the second order (local) effects of the spatial variation of precipitation as a means to provide insight into the prediction of precipitation randomness. This task can be …

A Nonparametric Method For Separating Photosynthesis And Respiration Components In Co2 Flux Measurements, Chuixiang Yi, Runze Li, Peter S. Backwin, Ankur Desai, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Sean P. Burns, Andrew A. Turnipseed, Steven C. Wofsy, J. William Munger, Kell Wilson, Russell K. Monson

Publications and Research

Future climate change is expected to affect ecosystem-atmosphere CO₂ exchange, particularly through the influence of temperature. To date, however, few studies have shown that differences in the response of net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) to temperature among ecosystems can be explained by differences in the photosynthetic and respiratory processes that compose NEE. Using a new nonparametric statistical model, we analyzed data from four forest ecosystems. We observed that differences among forests in their ability to assimilate CO₂ as a function of temperature were attributable to consistent differences in the temperature dependence of photosynthesis and respiration. This observation …

A 700 Year Record Of Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Climate Variability, Paul A. Mayewski, Kirk A. Maasch, James W.C. White, Eric J. Steig, E A. Meyerson, Ian D. Goodwin, Vin Morgan, Tas D. Van Ommen, Mark Aj Curran, Joseph M. Souney Jr, K Kreutz

All Materials

Annually dated ice cores from West and East Antarctica provide proxies for past changes in atmospheric circulation over Antarctica and portions of the Southern Ocean, temperature in coastal West and East Antarctica, and the frequency of South Polar penetration of El Niño events. During the period AD 1700–1850, atmospheric circulation over the Antarctic and at least portions of the Southern Hemisphere underwent a mode switch departing from the out-of-phase alternation of multi-decadal long phases of EOF1 and EOF2 modes of the 850 hPa field over the Southern Hemisphere (as defined in the recent record by Thompson and Wallace, 2000; Thompson …

An Analysis Of Simulated Long-Term Soil Moisture Data For Three Land Uses Under Contrasting Hydroclimatic Conditions In The Northern Great Plains, Rezaul Mamood, Kenneth G. Hubbard

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Soil moisture (SM) plays an important role in land surface and atmosphere interactions. It modifies energy balance near the surface and the rate of water cycling between land and atmosphere. The lack of observed SM data prohibits understanding of SM variations at climate scales under varying land uses. However, with simulation models it is possible to develop a long-term SM dataset and study these issues. In this paper a water balance model is used to provide a quantitative assessment of SM climatologies for three land uses, namely, irrigated corn, rain-fed corn, and grass, grown under three hydroclimatic regimes in Nebraska. …

A 700-Year Record Of Atmospheric Circulation Developed From The Law Dome Ice Core, East Antarctica, Joseph M. Souney Jr, Paul A. Mayewski, Ian D. Goodwin, David Meeker, Vin Morgan, Mark Aj Curran, Tas D. Van Ommen, Anne S. Palmer

All Materials

A 700-year, high-resolution, multivariate ice core record from Dome Summit South (DSS) (66°46′S, 112°48′E; 1370 m), Law Dome, is used to investigate sea level pressure (SLP) variability in the region of East Antarctica. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the first EOF (LDEOF1) of the combined glaciochemical, oxygen isotope ratio, and accumulation rate record from DSS represents most of the variability in sea salt seen in the record. LDEOF1 is positively correlated (at least 95% confidence level) to instrumental June mean SLP across most of East Antarctica. Over the last 700 years, LDEOF1 levels at Law Dome were the …

Transport Out Of The Antarctic Polar Vortex From A Three-Dimensional Transport Model, Shuhua Li, Eugene Cordero, David J. Karoly

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

[1] A three-dimensional chemical transport model is utilized to study the transport out of the Antarctic polar vortex during the southern hemisphere spring. On average, over five consecutive years between 1993 and 1997, horizontal transport out of the vortex into the midlatitude stratosphere is smaller than vertical transport into the troposphere. However, there is significant interannual variability in the magnitude of mass exchange, which is related to year-to-year fluctuations in planetary wave activity. In 1994 the net loss of the vortex tracer mass in September is similar to that in October. However, the relative mass flux entering the midlatitude stratosphere …

An Examination Of Anomalously Low Column Ozone In The Southern Hemisphere Midlatitudes During 1997, Eugene C. Cordero, Terrence R. Nathan

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

[1] Observations from both ground-based and satellite instruments show record low column ozone abundance between 20°S and 40°S during 1997. The 1997 monthly averaged column ozone from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) is up to 25 Dobson units (DU) lower than the TOMS climatological mean (1979–1996) and up to 20 DU below the previous record low values. Observations from the Halogen Occultation Experiment show that below average ozone concentrations during 1997 were confined primarily to the lower stratosphere. Residual circulation statistics calculated from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office temperature analyses indicate that circulation anomalies during 1997 can account for …

Is The Ozone Hole Over Your Classroom?, Eugene Cordero

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

First year university science students are surveyed about their understanding of the ozone layer, ozone depletion and the effect of ozone depletion on Australia. Although students seem to understand the basic function of the ozone layer, over 65% of students incorrectly believe that the ozone hole is over Australia, and over 90% of students incorrectly believe that the ozone hole is present during the summer. Together these ideas seem to explain why nearly 75% of students blame the ozone hole for Australia’s high rate of skin cancer. Survey results also indicate that students seem confused about global warming, and the …

Land Use Change And Modification Of Near-Surface Thermal Records In The Northern Great Plains, Rezaul Mahmood, Ken Hubbard, Christy Carlson

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The North American Great Plains have experienced a rapid overturning of natural grasslands to agricultural land use over the last century. Moreover, in some areas more than 80% of the land use has changed from dry land to irrigated agriculture during the second half of the twentieth century. It is speculated that these changes have modified near-surface atmospheric condition and our modeling study seems to support this. To identify changes in land surface- atmospheric modifications we have applied a soil moistureenergy balance model at three locations in Nebraska: Mead, York, and McCook. The model was applied for three land uses …