Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Modeling And Analysis Of Multicommodity Network Flows Via Goal Programming, Matthew A. Scott

Theses and Dissertations

In this research we focused on the mobility system modeled by the AMC mobility planner's calculator (AMPCALC). We developed AMPCALC as a user-friendly tool and allow the user to easily carry out strategic airlift, air refueling and aeromedical evacuation calculations that are covered in Air Force Pamphlet 10-1403. In this study, Excel software and its macro language, Visual Basic for Application, are our two main tools. In the methodology of the thesis we examined fundamental aspects of the mobility system in AMPCALC. We discussed formulation logic of the mobility cycle. We presented ramp use optimization and tanker optimization processes. We …

An Integrated Architecture And Feature Selection Algorithm For Radial Basis Neural Networks, Timothy D. Flietstra

Theses and Dissertations

There are two basic ways to control an Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV) as it searches for targets: allow the UCAV to act autonomously or employ man-in-the-loop control. There are also two target sets of interest: fixed or mobile targets. This research focuses on UCAV-based targeting of mobile targets using man-in-the-loop control. In particular, the interest is in how levels of satellite signal latency or signal degradation affect the ability to accurately track, target, and attack mobile targets. This research establishes a weapon effectiveness model assessing targeting inaccuracies as a function of signal latency and/or signal degradation. The research involved …

Identifying Enlisted Stay And Leave Population Characteristics With Discriminant Analysis, Zabrina Y. Hoggard

Theses and Dissertations

The research contribution of this thesis is the first known integrated architecture and feature selection algorithm for Radial Basis Neural Networks (RBNNs). The objective is to apply the network iteratively to determine the final architecture and feature set used to evaluate a problem. Additionally, this thesis compares three different classification techniques, Discriminant Analysis (DA), Feed-Forward Neural Networks (FFN) and RBNNs against several hard to solve problems. These problems were used to evaluate general classifier performance as well as the performance of the feature selection techniques. This thesis describes the classification techniques as well as the measures used to evaluate them. …

A Process For Vectoring Offensive Information Warfare As A Primary Weapon Option Within The United States Air Force, Sheila G. Bennett

Theses and Dissertations

Consistently and comprehensively using Information Operations (IO) capabilities as primary weapon option within the Air Force is the next step to operationalizing IO within the Air Force. Doctrine and official guidance has set the variables of mission and concepts of operations, organizational structure, and IW players in place. The missing variable to operationalizing IO and probably the most difficult is the 'how' or process of the equation. This research will introduce a useable process that can be incorporated within the Air Force for integrating offensive IW activities into the current and given environment. The process is the basis for further …

Modeling Information Assurance, Joseph E. Beauregard

Theses and Dissertations

The ever-increasing speed of information systems allows decision-makers around the world to gather, process, and disseminate information almost instantaneously. However, with this benefit there comes a price. Information is valuable and therefore a target to those who do not have it or wish to destroy it. The Internet has allowed information to flow freely, but it has also made information vulnerable to many forms of corruption. The U. S. military controls much of the world's most sensitive information, and since it cannot sacrifice losing the speed at which this information is currently processed and disseminated, it must find a way …

Malicious Hackers: A Framework For Analysis And Case Study, Laura J. Kleen

Theses and Dissertations

Recent years have seen an increase in the number and severity of Information Operations (IO) attacks upon DoD resources. At a higher level, the US as a whole has come under cyber attack by individuals and groups seeking thrills, monetary gain, publicity for their causes, and myriad other goals. This effort develops a first cut model of individual hacker mentality that can be utilized to improve threat assessment, mitigate Information Assurance (IA) vulnerabilities, and improve risk assessment. Further, it is a first step toward automated characterization of Information Warfare (IW) attacks based upon hacker types. All hackers are not the …

Minimum Distance Estimation For Time Series Analysis With Little Data, Hakan Tekin

Theses and Dissertations

Minimum distance estimate is a statistical parameter estimate technique that selects model parameters that minimize a good-of-fit statistic. Minimum distance estimation has been demonstrated better standard approaches, including maximum likelihood estimators and least squares, in estimating statistical distribution parameters with very small data sets. This research applies minimum distance estimation to the task of making time series predictions with very few historical observations. In a Monte Carlo analysis, we test a variety of distance measures and report the results based on many different criteria. Our analysis tests the robustness of the approach by testing its ability to make predictions when …

Computer-Based Methods For Constructing Two-Level Fractional-Factorial Experimental Designs With A Requirement Set, Steven L. Forsythe

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation developed four methodologies for computer-aided experimental design of two-level fractional factorial designs with requirement sets (DOE/RS). The requirement sets identify all the experimental factors and the appropriate interaction terms to be evaluated in the experiment. Taguchi graphs and similar manual methods provide techniques for solving the DOE/RS problem. Unfortunately, these methods are limited because they become difficult to use as the number of factors or interaction terms exceeds ten. This research showed that the DOE/RS problem belongs to a class of difficult-to-solve problems known as NP-Complete. It is the combinatorial nature of NP-Complete problems that causes them to …

A Java Universal Vehicle Router In Support Of Routing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Robert W. Harder

Theses and Dissertations

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) help the military gather information in times of peace and war. During a mission, typically 100 sites or more, a UAV will frequently be re-tasked to visit a pop-up threat, leaving the operator to determine the best way to finish the day's list of sites after the re-tasking. I develop a prototype application to serve the needs of a specific customer, the 11th Reconnaissance Squadron, by helping them preplan missions and dynamically re-task UAVs. This prototype application is built on a reusable airframe router called the core AFIT Router, which can later be added to more …

A New Sequential Goodness Of Fit Test For The Three-Parameter Gamma Distribution With Known Shape Based On Skewness And Kurtosis, Chil Ho Park

Theses and Dissertations

This research presents a new sequential goodness of fit test for the three-parameter gamma distribution with a known shape. The test is accomplished by employing two new tests, sample skewness and sample kurtosis, sequentially as test statistics. Unlike the typical goodness of fit test, using parameter estimation methods such as maximum likelihood estimation and minimum distance estimation, this test using the two test statistics above does not involve a substantial degree of computational complexity. Large Monte Carlo simulation has been used to determine critical values and overall significance levels for all combinations of the two tests, and to conduct extensive …

Development Of An Operations Research Software Package For Army Divisions., Blane C. Wilson

Theses and Dissertations

There exists great potential for applying operations research techniques to solve specific problems in the areas of operations, installation support, and training at the Army division level. Because of the operational tempo of today's active-duty and reserve component units, command must focus on accomplishing the daily missions. Also, due their limited knowledge of the field, planners may not be aware of how operations research can be used to enhance planning and operations. Time, training funds, resources, safety, personnel, and equipment are all critical factors in this process. Operations research techniques could be used to improve division-level operations by saving time, …

Study Of Human Factors Variables In Battle Outcome Prediction Models, David Andrew Glovier

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Over time there have been many improvements in models that are used to predict the outcome of battles. Currently there is much supposition and speculation surrounding the use of human performance related factors as additional inputs to battle simulation models to improve their accuracy. However there is no conclusive scientific evidence which shows that these factors do make a significant difference. This study investigates the use of factors that may impact on the human performance directly or indirectly in battle prediction models. These factors consist of traditional human factors and external factors that may influence the human performance. The research …

A New Sequential Goodness Of Fit Test For The Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution With Known Shape Based On Skewness And Kurtosis, Jonathan C. Clough

Theses and Dissertations

The Weibull distribution finds wide applicability across a broad spectrum of disciplines and is very prevalent in reliability theory. Consequently, numerous statistical tests have been developed to determine whether sample data can be adequately modeled with this distribution. Unfortunately, the majority of these goodness-of-fit tests involve a substantial degree of computational complexity. The study presented here develops and evaluates a new sequential goodness-of-fit test for the three-parameter Weibull distribution with a known shape that delivers power comparable to popular procedures while dramatically reducing computational requirements. The new procedure consists of two distinct tests, using only the sample skewness and sample …

An Advanced Visualization Method For An Operations Research Analysis, Steven C. Oimoen

Theses and Dissertations

Visualizing multidimensional data using only two dimensions and conventional visualization techniques limits the understanding of the data set. Underlying structures or patterns within the data can easily go unnoticed. In order to gain additional insight into an analysis, incorporation of visualization and multidimensional graphics into the analysis results should be accomplished. The results must ensure that the information portrayed is not misleading or misunderstood. The integrity of the data must be preserved throughout the transformation. The primary objective of this research effort is to identify techniques to visualize multidimensional data and then develop a software tool to display the multidimensional …

Solving Geometric Knapsack Problems Using Tabu Search Heuristics, Christopher A. Chocolaad

Theses and Dissertations

An instance of the geometric knapsack problem occurs in air lift loading where a set of cargo must be chosen to pack in a given fleet of aircraft. This paper demonstrates a new heuristic to solve this problem in a reasonable amount of time with a higher quality solution then previously reported in literature. We also report a new tabu search heuristic to solve geometric knapsack problems.

A Synthesized Methodology For Eliciting Expert Judgment For Addressing Uncertainty In Decision Analysis, Richard W. Monroe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the development, refinement, and demonstration of an expert judgment elicitation methodology. The methodology has been developed by synthesizing the literature across several social science and scientific fields. The foremost consideration in the methodology development has been to incorporate elements that are based on reasonable expectations for the human capabilities of the user, the expert in this case.

Many methodologies exist for eliciting assessments for uncertain events. These are frequently elicited in probability form. This methodology differs by incorporating a qualitative element as a beginning step for the elicitation process. The qualitative assessment is a more reasonable way …

A Comparison Of Circular Error Probable Estimators For Small Samples, Charles E. Williams

Theses and Dissertations

Several previous studies investigated the performance of competing circular error probable (CEP) estimators for small samples. This estimation is important in ICBM analysis because, due to expense, there are a limited number of ICBM test launches. In the most recent previous study (1993), Tongue considered five CEP estimators in a simulation test, attempting to determine the behavior of these estimators for populations of various bias, ellipticity, correlation, and sample size. In this paper, we build on Tongue's findings in three ways: (1) The number of estimators compared is expanded to eight. (2) Different factors and factor levels are used. (3) …

Experiments In Aggregating Air Ordnance Effectiveness Data For The Tacwar Model, James E. Parker

Theses and Dissertations

An interactive MS Access&trademark; based application that aggregates the output of the SABSEL model for input into the TACWAR model is developed. The application was developed following efforts to create a functional approximation of the SABSEL data using neural networks, statistical networks, and traditional statistical techniques. These approximations were compared to a look-up table methodology on the basis of accuracy, (RMSE

A Robust Method Of Solving Nonlinear Boundary Value Problems Via Modified Compromise Programming, John L. Zornick

Theses and Dissertations

This study is an extension of Ng's previous work in which goal programming was used to determine an approximate solution to a boundary value problem. This approach follows the same basic approach developed by Ng in which the method of collocation was recast as a compromise programming model. Hence, instead of solving a system of simultaneous nonlinear equations, one seeks a compromise solution which minimizes (in a weighted residual sense) a vector norm of the differential equation residuals. A difference in this approach is that it makes use of a genetic algorithm as the optimizing engine as opposed to the …

The Effect Of Repeatedly Sampling An Embedded Metamodel On The Simulation Response, John Kent Patterson

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigated the effect on simulation output of repeatedly sampling an embedded metamodel. A metamodel is said to be embedded within a simulation if it is used to replace a submodule of that simulation. Replacing a deterministic module with an embedded deterministic metamodel poses no apparent mathematical problems. However, using a deterministic metamodel to replace a stochastic simulation component could require additional corrective actions. This research was performed in two phases. The first phase dealt with a set of tandem queues. It was shown that as each queue was sequentially replaced with a metamodel, the total system variance was …

Estimation Of The Captive-Carry Survival Function For The Advanced Medium Range Air-To-Air Missile (Amraam), David R. Denhard

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis considers the problem of estimating the survival function of an item (probability that the item functions for a time greater than a given time t) from sampling data subject to partial right censoring (a portion of the items in the sampling data have not yet been observed to fail). Specifically the thesis describes several parametric and non-parametric statistical models that can be used when the sampling data is subject to partial right censoring. These models are applied to the case of estimating the captive-carry survival function of the AIM-120A Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM).

A New Goodness-Of-Fit Test For The Gamma Distribution Based On Sample Spacings From Complete And Censored Samples, Huseyin Duman

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis studies a new goodness-of-fit test for the gamma distribution with known shape parameter. This test statistic, Z*, is based on spacings from complete or censored samples. The size of samples varied between 5 and 35. The critical value tables were generated for the Z* test statistic for complete and censored samples. The critical values were obtained for five different significance levels: 0.20 0.15, 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01. An extensive power study, containing 50,000 Monte Carlo runs was conducted using nine alternative distributions, H_a. It was observed that the Z* test statistic was more powerful against certain …

Assessing The Vulnerability Of Multi-Commodity Networks With Failing Components, Alan R. Robinson

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes an analytical approach for assessing flow disturbance, or compromise, based on limited sampling of arc flow information in multi-commodity, or multiple origin-destination O-D, networks with failing arcs. There were three objectives established for this research. The first objective was to bound the expected flow, given the arcs fail with certain probabilities, which was accomplished by reviewing current approaches for single-commodity networks and extending the results to the multi-commodity case. The second objective was to determine the best placement of flow monitors to obtain the most accurate estimates of O-D pair volumes. This was accomplished using a multi-criteria …

Application Of Sequential Quadratic Programming To Large-Scale Structural Design Problems, Mark A. Abramson

Theses and Dissertations

Large-scale structural optimization problems are often difficult to solve with reasonable efficiency and accuracy. Such problems are often characterized by constraint functions which are not explicitly defined. Constraint and gradient functions are usually expensive to evaluate. An optimization approach which uses the NLPQL sequential quadratic programming algorithm of Schittkowski, integrated with the Automated Structural Optimization System ASTROS is tested. The traditional solution approach involves the formulation and solution of an explicitly defined approximate problem during each iteration. This approach is replaced by a simpler approach in which the approximate problem is eliminated. In the simpler approach, each finite element analysis …

A Simulation Approach To Granite Sentry System Analysis, Marilyn J. Bauer

Theses and Dissertations

This study demonstrated the use of simulation modelling to analyze Granite Sentry system performance. The availability simulation model constructed provides a number of system performance measures as a function of component MTBFs and MTTRs. Analysis of failure data prior to model construction supported the generally accepted use of exponentially distributed failure rates and lognormally distributed repair times.

A Fortran Based Learning System Using Multilayer Back-Propagation Neural Network Techniques, Gregory L. Reinhart

Theses and Dissertations

An interactive computer system which allows the researcher to build an optimal neural network structure quickly, is developed and validated. This system assumes a single hidden layer perceptron structure and uses the back- propagation training technique. The software enables the researcher to quickly define a neural network structure, train the neural network, interrupt training at any point to analyze the status of the current network, re-start training at the interrupted point if desired, and analyze the final network using two- dimensional graphs, three-dimensional graphs, confusion matrices and saliency metrics. A technique for training, testing, and validating various network structures and …

The Effective Use Of Animation In Simulation Model Validation, Christopher L. Swider

Theses and Dissertations

This study examined two animation displays moving icons, bar graphs at two presentation speeds to determine how each of these factors affected the animations ability to communicate violations of model assumptions. Subjects viewed animation displays individually and in combination at each presentation speed. Eight problem scenarios were presented to evaluate each animations ability to communicate violations of different assumptions. Each animations communication ability was measured subjectively and objectively. Subjective measures in the form of pairwise comparisons were used to calculate normalized preference ratings for each animation. objective measures included problem identification accuracy and problem time. Subjective results indicated that moving …

Proactive Monitoring Of Performance In Stochastic Communication Networks, John C. C. Van Hove

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes several models for placing bounds on the expected values of some dynamic performance measures for computer communication networks with failing components. These models provide an understanding of expected network performance that is useful in the process of proactive performance monitoring and also in defining level of service agreements with network users. There were three objectives for this research. The first objective was to extend some existing models of steady-state stochastic network performance to a dynamic network flow representation in order to capture the dynamic nature of proactive monitoring. The second objective was to convert the extended absolute …

An Air Mission Planning Algorithm For A Theater Level Combat Model, Brian J. Griggs

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis describes the development of an air mission planning algorithm for the Joint Staffs Future Theater Level Model FTLM. The overall problem scope was to develop an algorithm to handle major factors bearing on the combat mission planning problem while providing hook-ups for the FTLM architecture. Other aspects of the problem included finding the appropriate level of detail, developing a fast solving technique, and attempting to use existing data. The problem was handled by using some ideas from existing aircraft allocation algorithms and by adding some new techniques. The proposed air mission planning algorithm supplies the optimum degree of …

An Investigation Of Simulated Annealing Applied To Structural Optimization Problems, Richard C. Mceachin

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates the feasibility of using Simulated Annealing SA in structural optimization problems. The investigation involves solving benchmark structural optimization problems with an SA algorithm, and comparing its solutions to those found by four other optimizers. Overall, the analysis shows that SA has limited applicability in structural optimization. Two primary factors were found to adversely impact the performance of the SA algorithm in these problems. These factors are high dimensionality, and high levels of constraint. The difficulty involved in solving these problems with a random search increases exponentially with the number of dimensions. The number, and non-linearity, of the …