Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

A Synthesized Methodology For Eliciting Expert Judgment For Addressing Uncertainty In Decision Analysis, Richard W. Monroe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the development, refinement, and demonstration of an expert judgment elicitation methodology. The methodology has been developed by synthesizing the literature across several social science and scientific fields. The foremost consideration in the methodology development has been to incorporate elements that are based on reasonable expectations for the human capabilities of the user, the expert in this case.

Many methodologies exist for eliciting assessments for uncertain events. These are frequently elicited in probability form. This methodology differs by incorporating a qualitative element as a beginning step for the elicitation process. The qualitative assessment is a more reasonable way …

A Comparison Of Circular Error Probable Estimators For Small Samples, Charles E. Williams

Theses and Dissertations

Several previous studies investigated the performance of competing circular error probable (CEP) estimators for small samples. This estimation is important in ICBM analysis because, due to expense, there are a limited number of ICBM test launches. In the most recent previous study (1993), Tongue considered five CEP estimators in a simulation test, attempting to determine the behavior of these estimators for populations of various bias, ellipticity, correlation, and sample size. In this paper, we build on Tongue's findings in three ways: (1) The number of estimators compared is expanded to eight. (2) Different factors and factor levels are used. (3) …

Experiments In Aggregating Air Ordnance Effectiveness Data For The Tacwar Model, James E. Parker

Theses and Dissertations

An interactive MS Access&trademark; based application that aggregates the output of the SABSEL model for input into the TACWAR model is developed. The application was developed following efforts to create a functional approximation of the SABSEL data using neural networks, statistical networks, and traditional statistical techniques. These approximations were compared to a look-up table methodology on the basis of accuracy, (RMSE