Agricultural Economics Commons^™

From Insight To Impact: Segmenting Consumers By Their Regenerative Agriculture Priorities, Lourival Carmo Monaco Neto, Gustavo Stevanin De Souza, Owen Jerome Zakrzewski, Allan Wayne Gray

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

Regenerative agriculture is gaining traction in agrifood value chains, yet its definitional ambiguity and the heterogeneity of consumer priorities create strategic challenges for commercialization. Firms commonly assume a homogeneous ‘sustainable consumer’ motivated by environmental outcomes, but research on consumer food values suggests that economic attributes often outweigh environmental concerns when trade-offs are required. This study segments U.S. consumers based on how they prioritize seven core attributes of regenerative agriculture: soil health, biodiversity, greenhouse gas emissions, water use, food prices, crop yield, and farmer profitability. Using forced-ranking data from 1231 nationally representative U.S. consumers surveyed in August 2024, we apply a …

Food Systems Transformation Would Reshape Global Agriculture, Matthew Gibson, Marina Sundiang, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Thais Diniz Oliveira, Felicitas Beier, Lauren Benavidez-Brouk, Astrid Bos, Maksym Chepeliev, Jonathan Doelman, Shahnila Dunston, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlik, Jordan Hristov, Jonas Jägermeyr, Marta Kozicka, Marijke Kuiper, Page Kyle, Thijs De Lange, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Hermen Luchtenbelt, David Meng-Chuen Chen, Abhijeet Mishra, Christoph Müller, Gerald Nelson, Amanda Palazzo, Ignacio Perez Dominguez, Alexander Popp, Ronald Sands, Marco Springman, Elke Stehfest, Timothy B. Sulser, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Gianmaria Tassinari, Ferike Thom, Philip Thornton, Kazuaki Tsuchiya, Willem-Jan Van Zeist, Hans Van Meijl, Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe, Detlef Van Vuuren, Hannah H.E. Van Zanten, Isabelle Weindl, Keith Wiebe, Xin Zhao, Mario Herrero

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

Food systems are a major contributor to exceeding planetary boundaries1,2,3 and poor quality diets are a key mortality risk globally4. Projected population and income growth could exacerbate these challenges5. In response, there are calls for transformation towards healthy and sustainable food systems6,7,8. However, the scale and distribution of the impacts of this transformation on agriculture are underexplored. Here we show that, by 2050, the transformation of food systems towards healthy diets (adoption of the EAT–Lancet reference diet), improved productivity and halving of food waste results in a fundamental restructuring of global agriculture, aspects of which break with historical trends. Scenario …

The Unexpected Role Of Conditionality In Shaping Relational Values: Insights From An Incentive-Based Conservation Program In Bolivia, Brooke Mcwherter, Will Munger, Zhao Ma, Claudia Radel, Laura Zanotti, Jonathan Bauchet, Ricardo Godoy

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

As global change accelerates, Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs have become increasingly important tools for addressing the interconnected challenges of land degradation, biodiversity loss, water scarcity, and climate change. PES programs provide incentives to individuals or communities, conditional on people adopting sustainable natural resource management practices to support or increase ecosystem service provisioning. Although conditionality is considered a “PES-defining feature,” little is known about how conditionality is perceived by community members and how such perceptions influence their participation in and experience with PES programs. To address this gap, we conducted an extensive qualitative study of Watershared, an incentive-based conservation …

Long Panel Studies Of Small-Scale Rural Societies In The Global South: What Is Their Value, Why Are They Rare, And Suggestions To Make Them Happen, Jonathan Bauchet, Ricardo Godoy, William R. Leonard, Victoria Reyes-Garcia, Asher Y. Rosinger, Susan Tanner, Eduardo A. Undurraga

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

Many topics in the behavioral sciences and epidemiology require researchers to directly observe entities (e.g., individuals, households) over a long time to identify lasting effects. Long-term panel data collection is more common in high-income countries than in small-scale rural societies (SSRS) of low-income countries. SSRS are mobile, nature-dependent, linguistic minorities, and highly autarkic. Analyzing such data using a life-course perspective can help uncover patterns that align or upend what we know from high-income countries. This study a) reviews long (>∼10 year) panels in SSRS (n = 9), b) extends the analysis to cover somewhat comparable societies of smallholders (n …

Capturing System Complexity In Maritime Decarbonization: A Multilayer Modeling Perspective, Maksym Chepeliev, Rene Banares-Alcantara, Lorenza Campagnolo, Ronald Apriliyanto Halim, Jim Hall, Gianandrea Mannarini, Hesam Naghash, Carlo Palazzi, Ramiro Parrado, Paola Rocchi, Alessandro Taberna, Soheil Shayegh

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

A Hedonic Analysis Of Farm Tractor Auction Prices, Madison Pearson, Chad Fiechter, Andy Campbell

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

Used farm machinery values play a critical role in farm management and in assessing the financial health of the agricultural sector. However, the heterogeneity of machines, particularly regarding embedded technology and usage, complicates efforts to isolate the factors that influence prices. This study leverages a detailed dataset from Tractor Zoom to estimate the effects of machine characteristics and market conditions on auction prices of used 300 to 450 horsepower tractors. We find a nonlinear relationship between machine usage and price: tractors with fewer than 500 hours of use lose approximately 118⁢𝑝⁢𝑒⁢𝑟⁢𝑎⁢𝑑⁢𝑑⁢𝑖⁢𝑡⁢𝑖⁢𝑜⁢𝑛⁢𝑎⁢𝑙⁢ℎ⁡𝑜⁢𝑢⁢𝑟,𝑤⁢ℎ⁡𝑖⁢𝑙⁢𝑒⁢𝑡⁢𝑟⁢𝑎⁢𝑐⁢𝑡⁢𝑜⁢𝑟⁢𝑠⁢𝑤⁢𝑖⁢𝑡⁢ℎ⁡𝑚⁢𝑜⁢𝑟⁢𝑒⁢𝑡⁢ℎ⁡𝑎⁢𝑛⁢10,000⁢ℎ⁡𝑜⁢𝑢⁢𝑟⁢𝑠⁢𝑠⁢ℎ⁡𝑜⁢𝑤⁢𝑜⁢𝑛⁢𝑙⁢𝑦⁢𝑎⁢𝑤⁢𝑒⁢𝑎⁢𝑘⁢𝑙⁢𝑦⁢𝑠⁢𝑖⁢𝑔⁡𝑛⁢𝑖⁢𝑓⁡𝑖⁢𝑐⁢𝑎⁢𝑛⁢𝑡⁢𝑑⁢𝑒⁢𝑐⁢𝑙⁢𝑖⁢𝑛⁢𝑒⁢𝑜⁢𝑓⁡𝑎⁢𝑏⁢𝑜⁢𝑢⁢𝑡2 per hour. We also document pronounced seasonal patterns, with …

Buying Intention Of True Price Labelled Food Products For Different Motive-Based Consumer Segments, Machiel J. Reinders, Houkje Adema, Liam Dwyer, Ellen J. Van Loo

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

A Jobs-To-Be-Done Framework For Mapping Digital Innovation Opportunities In Climate-Smart Agrifood Systems, Lourival Carmo Monaco Neto, Allan Gray

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

The agrifood sector faces well-documented barriers to climate-smart agriculture (CSA) adoption, reflecting systematic difficulty identifying where digital tools address specific stakeholder needs rather than a technology shortage. This paper presents a prescriptive framework for mapping digital innovation opportunities in complex, multi-stakeholder agrifood systems. Grounded in Jobs-to-be-Done (JTBD) theory and structured as a two-dimensional matrix of meta-jobs and value chain segments, the framework was developed through a design science research (DSR) paradigm evaluated on utility, coherence, and actionability. Construction involved a purposive synthesis of three literature streams and iterative refinement through 136 stakeholder engagements within a six-month university-affiliated startup studio cycle. …

Is Precision Agriculture Technology Adoption Persistently Overestimated?, Trey Malone, Chad Fiechter, Zanliang Meng, James Lowenberg‐Deboer, Bruce Erickson, Jay Akridge

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

Precision agriculture is sometimes assumed to diffuse steadily over time, and industry planning frequently extrapolates early adoption trends forward. This study evaluates the accuracy of such expectations by comparing agricultural input dealers' forecasts of future service offerings with the actual levels of offerings that dealerships eventually provided. Using 21 waves of the CropLife-Purdue Precision Agriculture Dealership Survey from 2000 to 2025, we examine expected and realized precision agriculture offerings across 26 technologies. We document systematic and persistent overestimation of adoption: for most technologies, expected diffusion exceeds realized outcomes, with forecast errors becoming especially pronounced as adoption flattened or declined in …

Ozone Pollution Reduction Partially Offsets The Negative Impact Of Climate Change Mitigation Efforts On Global Hunger, Shujuan Xia, Tomoko Hasegawa, Thanapat Jansakoo, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Kazuaki Tsuchiya, Shinichiro Fujimori, Maksym Chepeliev, Marta Kozicka, Abhijeet Mishra, Willem-Jan Van Zeist, Xin Zhao, Thijs De Lange, Thais Diniz Oliveira, Jonathan C. Doelman, Matthew Gibson, Petr Havlík, Mario Herrero, Ipsita Kumar, Yuki Ochi, Timothy B. Sulser, Marina Sundiang, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Jun’Ya Takakura, Keith Wiebe

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

Studies warning of the potential negative effects of climate mitigation on food security through the competing use of land for bioenergy and afforestation have overlooked the impact of reduced ozone and its potential enhancement of crop yields. Here we use six global agro-economic models to compare the impacts of climate change with climate mitigation policy and ozone reduction on agriculture. We find that ozone reduction could reduce the negative impact of a 1.5 °C-consistent climate change mitigation policy on global hunger by 15% in 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa and India, where hunger is most severe, account for 56% of this global …

From Niche To Norm: Plant-Based Labelling Strategies To Shift Social Norms To Support Plant-Based Food Choices, Houkje Adema, Marleen C. Onwezen, Ellen J. Van Loo, Liam Dwyer, Ellen Van Kleef

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

Plant-based labels aim to promote plant-based choices by highlighting which products are plant-based. However, these labels are often applied selectively, leaving many more plant-based products unlabelled. We argue that this may unintentionally communicate that plant-based options are more ‘niche’ rather than the ‘norm’, and thereby hinder normalisation of plant-based consumption. Across two incentive-compatible experiments with representative Dutch samples in a simulated online supermarket, we examined how labelling interventions influence perceived availability of plant-based options, descriptive and injunctive social norms for choosing plant-based, and plant-based choices. In Study 1 (N = 1474), we manipulated the number of plant-based products labelled as …

Stocks And Shocks: Assessing The Relative Roles Of Public And Private Inventories In Buffering Rice Price Volatility In The Philippines, Bernhard Dalheimer, Kenneth Foster, Gerald E. Shively, Valerien O. Pede, Dela-Dem Doe Fiankor, Jacob Ricker-Gilbert, Pratibha Bist

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

Public stockholding of food is politically contentious and economically challenging. Although private stocks are generally understood to be more efficient than public stocks at providing a reliable buffer against production shortfalls, private stocks often fail to stabilize prices during extreme food market shocks. Moreover, maintaining large public stock programs in which the government acts as the buyer or seller of last resort, can be very costly. This paper analyzes the recent historical success of public and private rice stocks in stabilizing domestic rice prices in the Philippines, the world’s largest net importer of rice. Relying on competitive storage theory and …

The Loss Function Of Usda Forecasters: Evidence From Wasde Animal Product Price Forecasts, Chad Fiechter, Siddhartha S. Bora, Todd H. Kuethe

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

The loss function is a mathematical representation of the costs experienced by a forecaster when observed outcomes differ from what was predicted. Prior studies suggest that USDA forecasts are not optimal based on an assumed mean-zero quadratic loss function. This study proposes an alternative view of forecast evaluation, which assumes all USDA forecasts are produced to minimize the forecasters’ costs, and searches for the dimensions of the loss function under which optimality holds. We illustrate the degree to which USDA loss functions vary across a series of WASDE price forecasts. A better understanding of USDA forecasters’ costs will benefit forecasters …

The Economics Of Us Row Crop Production With Large-Scale Autonomous Machines, Joshua Strine, Chad Fiechter, James Lowenberg-Deboer

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

Labor challenges are underpinning large multinational farm machine manufacturers' development of autonomy solutions for their large-scale machine offerings. This study simulates a linear optimization model to examine the economics of large-scale autonomous machines for a rotational maize and soybean farm in the Midwest US. Results support the hypothesis that autonomous machines can be economically viable for farms facing severe labor shortages. However, under current technology and pricing structures, conventional mechanization remains the most profitable option for farms with reliable labor. Critical factors shaping the competitiveness of autonomy include subscription fees, field efficiency, and human supervision requirements. As these factors evolve, …

Farm Efficiency And Precision Agriculture Technology, Chad Fiechter, Brady Brewer, Jennifer Ifft, Michael Boehlje

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

Precision agriculture technology (PAT) is often viewed as a potential driver of future efficiency gains in farming. Using within-farm variation from an unbalanced panel of Kansas farms, this study examines the impact of PAT bundles on efficiency in generating gross revenue. On average, we find little evidence that these technologies improve efficiency. However, among less efficient farms, several bundles are linked to notable efficiency gains, underscoring the importance of accounting for farm heterogeneity.

Economic Convergence, Intragenerational Economic Mobility, And Inequality In A Native Amazonian Small-Scale Society Of Indigenous People In Bolivia, Ricardo Godoy, Jonathan Bauchet, Victoria Reyes-Garcia, Eduardo A. Undurraga

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

Adult intragenerational mobility reflects society’s ability to reward effort and tame society-wide inequality. In developed economies, mobility is modest and correlates negatively with economic inequality. Little is known quantitatively from direct observations about long-term intragenerational mobility in small-scale societies of the Global South. To assess the external validity of findings about patterns of intragenerational mobility from developed economies, we use a yearly survey panel dataset (2002–2010) of adults from a society of native Amazonians (Tsimane’) in Bolivia practicing farming, fishing, hunting, and plant gathering. We estimate (a) convergence rates (or the speed of catch up) of adults in the bottom …

Evaluating Policy And Industry-Based Interventions For Healthier Online Food-Away-From-Home Choices: A Scoping Review, Vincenzina Caputo, Jiayu Sun, Ellen J. Van Loo

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

The rapid digital transformation of the food-away-from-home (FAFH) sector has redefined how consumers access and select meals. Digital delivery platforms such as Uber Eats, Deliveroo, and Meituan have become influential market intermediaries, shaping the nutritional landscape of food environments and raising concerns about their healthfulness. This study reviews empirical evidence on policy-based and industry-led interventions aimed at improving dietary outcomes in digital FAFH environments. Following PRISMA guidelines and using machine-learning–assisted screening (ASReview), 37 peer-reviewed studies were identified across four domains: nutritional labeling, fiscal measures, food-assistance programs, and digital nudges or decision-support tools. Findings indicate that although traditional food-policy instruments designed …

Quantifying Interest In And Sentiment Of Online Media About Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Cattle Production In The United States, Michael L. Smith, Jinho Jung, Nicole Olynk Widmar, Danielle J. Ufer, Maria Berikou, Jayson Lusk

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

The public is paying increased attention to the environmental impacts associated with cattle production systems in the US. Thus, cattle producers are increasingly exploring ways to communicate their efforts to reduce those environmental and climate impacts. This study uses online and social media data from 2018 to 2022 to examine public interest in and sentiment about beef and dairy cattle production when discussed within the context of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Variation in mentions and net sentiment over the reporting period is quantified and analyzed. Over the period of data collection, which was interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, we find …

Integrating Food Loss And Waste Reduction Policies With Global Dietary Shifts: An Economic Modelling Study, Alessandro Gatto, Maksym Chepeliev

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

Background

Methods

Public Perceptions Of Universities As Public Entities During The Covid-19 Pandemic Era, Jinho Jung, Laura Barrett, Nicole Olynk Widmar, Mario Ortez

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

Higher education institutions are facing challenges in navigating social, cultural, and political issues. The online presence of higher education presents a new set of opportunities and challenges; knowledge, news, and continuing education are increasingly disseminated online. Additionally, the public, student bodies and stakeholders are increasingly looking at reviews or seeking opinions via online and social media to form opinions on institutions. This analysis uses online and social media to analyze and compare perceptions of two public universities in Indiana, namely Purdue University and Indiana University. These two Indiana institutions are located in the same state, allowing for comparisons of public …

A Time Series Analysis Of Herd Investor Behavior Using Online And Social Media Data, Michael L. Smith, Valerie Kilders, Todd Kuethe, Nicole Olynk Widmar

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

We examine the relationship between market performance of leading cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin and Ethereum), meme-stocks (AMC, GameStop), and subjects of corporate boycotts (Bud Light) using weekly market price and volume data along with social media data of weekly mentions (which total 337 million in this dataset) and net sentiment. Using vector autoregression (VAR) time series analysis along with Granger causality testing and structural breaks, we successfully predict trade volume of these various assets using social media data and price data. We also find that closing price data and trade volume are reliable predictors of net sentiment about crypto in online and …

Social Networks And The Demand For Credence Agricultural Technologies, Yurani Arias-Granada, Jonathan Bauchet, Jacob Ricker-Gilbert, Kajal Gulati

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

Little is known about the adoption of agricultural technologies that enhance unobservable attributes, such as food quality and food safety. Social networks can potentially be a key tool to disseminate information about such technologies, because informal discussions among network members could counter the lack of observability and awareness of the benefits of such technologies. To inform this issue, we conducted a field experiment that included experimental auctions and a lottery to estimate how social networks influence the demand for Aflasafe, a new food safety-enhancing technology, among smallholder farmers in Senegal. Aflasafe is an agricultural input that controls aflatoxins, which are …

Disentangling The Channels Of Impact Of The Ukraine War On Global Food Markets: An Integrated Scenario Approach, Maksym Chepeliev, Maryla Maliszewska, Maria Filipa Seara E Pereira

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

The war in Ukraine has major implications for the world's agricultural and food markets, as the Black Sea region is a large supplier of crops and fertilizers. Impacts of the war are further exacerbated by the sanctions against Russia, spillover effects from disruptions of other commodity markets, adverse weather events and domestic policies that countries around the world have implemented in pursuit of food security. In this paper, using a comprehensive modeling framework, we decompose the impacts across various channels and show that the cumulative effect of the considered indirect spillovers is even more substantial than the direct agricultural supply …

Traceable And Scalable Food Balance Sheets From Agricultural Commodity Supply And Utilization Accounts (2010–2022), Xin Zhao, Maksym Chepeliev, Neus Escobar, Matthew T. Binsted, Pralit Patel, Page Kyle, Marshall A. Wise

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

The Food Balance Sheets (FBS), compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), serve as a cornerstone dataset for studies on agricultural development, food security, and dietary health, providing a broad overview of global and regional food systems. However, its limited transparency and scalability hinder its application in empirical analysis and multisector dynamic modeling. Here, we present a traceable Food Balance Sheets (T-FBS) dataset, developed from detailed Supply Utilization Accounts (SUA) using a novel Primary Commodity equivalent (PCe) aggregation approach. This framework enables the aggregation of commodity flows along supply chains while ensuring consistency and balance across multiple dimensions. The …

Additionality Of Solar Tax Incentives Under Community Choice Aggregation In Ohio, Michael L. Smith, Carson Reeling, Michael D. Wilcox

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

In the State of Ohio, the electric regulatory landscape permits local governments to become energy suppliers to residents and small businesses through community choice aggregation (CCA). Some CCAs provide enrollees 100% renewable electricity. Concurrently, the federal government offers an income tax credit (ITC) for the purchase of a solar array. With policy incentives, it is important to ensure they encourage behavior beyond the baseline scenario without the ITC. This is known as “additionality.” Renewable aggregation programs may crowd out the benefits of the ITC, violating additionality. This paper assesses additionality of the ITC in the context of Ohio’s CCA programs. …

Online Media Sentiment Analysis Of Shrimp And Salmon In The United States, Jingjing Tao, Kwamena K. Quagrainie

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

There is a growing interest in the U.S. seafood and aquaculture market; however, studies utilizing online information to understand this market are limited. This study employs online media analytics to obtain insights into consumer perceptions and potential demand signals for shrimp and salmon in the U.S. Our results show that platform X is the preferred medium for shrimp and salmon discussions, with shrimp's physical quality and salmon's environmental impact being the two major perception drivers. Additionally, autoregressive modeling is conducted to explore the dynamics of net sentiments. Farmed shrimp and salmon consistently exhibit lower net sentiments compared to their wild …

Failure Of The Farm Bill Process In 2023—A Perspective From Social Media Activity, Roman Keeney, Nicole Olynk Widmar, Austin Berenda

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

In September 2023, the current farm bill was allowed to expire. This marked the fourth consecutive farm bill to see its authorization lapse before replacement legislation was signed into law. The failure in 2023 is notable as significant trade and covid shocks revealed needed reforms in farm and food safety nets. We develop a unique online and social media dataset and metrics to examine 2023 online activity to understand drivers of online farm bill discussion and implications for the future of the traditional farm bill political coalition. These findings echo the increasing concern about future farm bills amid a broadening …

Leveraging Social Ties To Financial Gains: Exploring The Impact Of Social Capital In Rural Development, Mallory L. Rahe, Andrew J. Van Leuven, Trey Malone

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

Social capital, defined as networks of individuals linked through bonding or bridging relationships, plays a crucial but poorly conceptualized role in place-based development. The word “capital” implies an underlying value of the social connections throughout a community, and this study explores how these social relationships are used to initiate, plan, access financial capital, and implement economic development projects in rural areas. We avoid county-level aggregation bias and use a divergent pathway case study of projects across eight communities to examine how social ties are used during rural development in places with both high and low financial capital. Both types of …

The Recreational Value Of Birding And Crane Abundance, Richard T. Melstrom, Alex Nielsen, Carson Reeling

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

We estimate the economic value of birding, which is an important ecosystem service produced by bird populations in recreation areas. Our research identifies the link between values and species richness as well as the abundance of the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis), which migrates each year through our study area. Sandhill crane stopovers at state and federal wildlife areas can attract many birders. We estimate this nonmarket value using the zonal travel cost method and data from the eBird project on wildlife areas in Indiana. We compare crane counts based on eBird with those from the Indiana Department of Natural Resources …

#Porkandpigs: An Online Media Listening Analysis Of Public Perception Of The U.S. Swine Industry, Alexandra E. Fisk, Michael L. Smith, Brian T. Richert, Nicole Olynk Widmar

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

With the majority of the U.S. swine industry being generally bounded by social licensing, there is a growing need to understand social perspectives to better adapt to consumer demands. Online and social media data are rich datasets that researchers are leveraging to tackle economic and societal challenges. The information that can be gleaned from online media regarding public perceptions makes it an important tool for producers to understand driving topics of interest to the public. This study utilized a prominent online and social media listening and data analytics platform to identify and quantify online and social media mentions related to …