Risk Analysis Commons^™

Quantifying Risks Of Climate Change And Sea Level Rise To Naval Station Norfolk (Serdp Rc-1701), Kelly Burks-Copes

October 2, 2013: Quantifying Risks and Moving Forward

No abstract provided.

Towards Managing And Understanding The Risk Of Underwater Terrorism, Richard J. Gay

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation proposes a methodology to manage and understand the risk of underwater terrorism to critical infrastructures utilizing the parameters of the risk equation. Current methods frequently rely on statistical methods, which suffer from a lack of appropriate historical data to produce distributions and do not integrate epistemic uncertainty. Other methods rely on locating subject matter experts who can provide judgment and then undertaking an associated validation of these judgments.

Using experimentation, data from unclassified successful, or near successful, underwater attacks are analyzed and instantiated as a network graph with the key characteristics of the risk of terrorism represented as …

Risk Quadruplet: Integrating Assessments Of Threat, Vulnerability, Consequence, And Perception For Homeland Security And Homeland Defense, Kara Norman Hill

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Risk for homeland security and homeland defense is often considered to be a function of threat, vulnerability, and consequence. But what is that function? And are we defining and measuring these terms consistently? Threat, vulnerability, and consequence assessments are conducted, often separately, and data from one assessment could be drastically different from that of another due to inconsistent definitions of terms and measurements, differing data collection methods, or varying data sources. It has also long been a challenge to integrate these three disparate assessments to establish an overall picture of risk to a given asset. Further, many agencies conduct these …

Identification And Implementation Of Patterns Towards A Model Of Environmental Sustainability, S. Jimmy Gandhi, Santiago Perez, Danial Rushton, Robert Cloutier, Ipek Bozkurt, C. Ariel Pinto

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Much like the Quality Revolution did in the 1980's, corporate sustainability has the potential to drive significant changes in the processes and structure of various organizations in the coming decade. With a rapidly growing global population and an ever increasing global demand for resources (Population-Resource-Center, 2012). Sustainability has emerged as one of the primary challenges that organizations will have to deal with in the 21st century. An increasing realization among business executives that profitability by itself is not enough as a measure of success is also driving the increased adoption of sustainable practices in the corporate world (Lowitt and Grimsley, …

Development Of Risk Uncertainty Factors From Historical Nasa Projects, Tahani R. Amer

EMSE Doctoral Projects

NASA is a good investment of federal funds and strives to provide the best value to the nation. NASA has consistently budgeted to unrealistic cost estimates, which are evident in the cost growth in many of its programs. In this investigation, NASA has been using available uncertainty factors from the Aerospace Corporation, Air Force, and Booz Allen Hamilton to develop projects' risk posture. NASA has no insight into the developmental of these factors and, as demonstrated here, this can lead to unrealistic risks in many NASA Programs and projects (P/p). The primary contribution of this project is the development of …

Emerging M&S Application In Risk Management, C. Ariel Pinto, Andreas Tolk, Michael Mcshane

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

There has been compelling signs of the great potential of building further synergy with academics, researchers, and industry practitioners from the areas of Modeling and Simulation (M&S) managing risk events. This paper provides an introduction to risk management and how M&S has permeated the risk management process. The trend has been to harness the advantages of M&S tools and techniques in terms of efficiency and effectiveness in managing risks. However, the more important contribution of M&S may be in how it provides a way for specialists in various disciplines or industries interact to manage risks that require multi-disciplinary approach. This …

Delayed-Bang Approach Towards More Sustainable Critical Infrastructure Risk Management, C. Ariel Pinto, Michael K. Mcshane, Abhishek S. Pathak

Finance Faculty Publications

This article describes the Delayed Bang Approach for determining the value of risk management alternatives in critical infrastructure security. The discussion includes (1) the need for sustainable risk management (2) the importance of time valuation in evaluating competing loss prevention and loss reduction alternatives, (3) the convergence of deterministic engineering economics, survivability analysis, and probabilistic analysis, and (4) hypothetical examples of the Delayed-Bang Approach and significance towards more sustainable risk management.

Post-Project Risk Perception And Systems Management Reaction, Baqer Alali

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The objective of this research is to identify whether risk management in projects has any role in risk management in systems. Projects, systems, and risk management are three integral concepts in the management of various enterprises and agencies. Risk management is a common concept in systems and project processes. To avoid failures or crisis during their life cycles, projects and systems managers practice risk management. Projects and systems have well defined life cycles during which the risk is defined, controlled, and managed. Risk management is conducted in each phase of projects and systems. Projects are initiated to close certain operational …

Utilizing Knowledge Transfer To Promote Management Of Countervailing Risks In Value Stream Analysis, Jeffery A. Temple

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Organizations are frequently faced with the challenges of modifying and streamlining their processes by utilizing the latest process improvement techniques such as Lean Thinking. They use these techniques to allow them to better perform their organizational purposes through the elimination of waste and non-value added steps. Personnel performing these modifications need to account for potential outcomes and risks when streamlining processes. An association of knowledge transfer and experience to the identification and handling of these countervailing or alternative risks when performing Lean Thinking value stream analysis is investigated. The elements of risk management, Lean Thinking and knowledge transfer are described. …

Risk And System-Of-Systems: Toward A Unified Concept, C. Ariel Pinto, Michael K. Mcshane, Rani Kady

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The scope of this paper is the survey of both fundamental and most recent publications in system-of-systems, business and insurance, as well as risk analysis, modeling, and management for the purpose of better describing the concept of risk in recognition of emergence and complexity which characterizes many systems within the concern of engineering and business managers. The ultimate goal is to provide engineering and business managers the necessary perspective on the concept of risk and in its management for the next generation of sustainable systems - including various descriptions of risk and discussion of the relevance of properties of system-of-systems …

Goal Approach To Risk Scenario Identification In Systems Development, Cesar Ariel Pinto, Andreas Tolk, Rafael Landaeta

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The scope of this paper is the exploration of fundamental issues in identifying risk scenarios during systems development. Systems development refers to a series of processes which span conceptualization, designing the architecture, obtaining the elements, and eventually integrating all these elements into the fully developed final system. For truly sustainable and green systems, identifying risk scenarios early and continuously over the system development processes is vital. This paper contains various descriptions of risk from the project (i.e. programmatic) and technical perspectives, an exploration of the generally accepted risk management process, and how these relate to systems development through system goals. …

An Evaluation Of Risk Management Courses Offered In Engineering Management Programs, S. Jimmy Gandhi, C. Ariel Pinto

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

For this paper, the authors have surveyed a total of 22 engineering management (EM) programs in the United States (both accredited and non-accredited). The purpose of this study was to analyze the offering of risk management courses as part of the engineering management curriculum. The findings showed that the majority of the programs did not offer a single dedicated course on risk management and merely covered the topic as part of other courses such as project management. The authors have made recommendations that risk management should be included as a required part of the EM curriculum due to the higher …

Development Of A Framework To Evaluate Human Risk Towards Sustainable Risk Management, Ra'ed M. Jaradat, Rani A. Kady, C. Ariel Pinto

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Risk managers are constantly faced with the challenge of making decisions at various levels of their organizations. One of the challenges, which often times is unavoidable, lies in assigning a monetary value to human risks. Such challenge necessitates engineering managers to make educated decisions on the level of risk that the organizations and businesses should accept when it comes to human. The purpose of this study is to suggest a suitable framework that captures this aspect of engineering Risk Management in order to make rational and sustainable decisions about such assessed risk. This will be accomplished by exploring the tools, …

Project And Risk Management: A Systematic Approach, Baqer Alali, C. Ariel Pinto, Andreas Tolk, Rafael Landaeta

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The main purpose of this paper is to discuss three related topics of project management, systems management, and risk management. The issue that would be addressed in this paper is how risks are addressed in project and systems management, and how risks are propagated between projects and systems. A framework is proposed to overcome the problem of risk propagation from project to the systems. It was shown that the proposed framework can be deployed to existing risk management process with reasonable interventions (e.g. process prescribed by PMI). Finally a proof-of-concept application shows potential of the framework for various types of …

Time Valuation Of Risk: A Delayed-Bang Approach, Abhishek Pathak

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The subject of this thesis is the combined use of engineering economics and survival analysis in estimating time-value of risk-related resources. The discussion includes (1) the need for sustainable risk management, (2) the importance of time-valuation of risk related resources in the allocation or selection among competing risk mitigation alternatives, (3) the convergence of deterministic engineering economics, survivability analysis, and probabilistic analysis, and (4) results and examples of application in the context of prevention of risk event or mitigation of its consequences.

The significance of this thesis is in how three topics: engineering economics, survivability analysis, and probability theory can …

Sensitivity Analysis Framework For Large And Complex Simulation Models, Ghaith Rabadi, Shannon Bowling, Charles Keating, Resit Unal

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

In this paper, a framework for conducting Sensitivity Analysis (SA) on large and complex simulation models is introduced. The framework consists of components that are designed to make the SA a systematic process that is easy to manage and follow by simulation analysts and practitioners. Unlike local SA (one-variable-at-a-time SA), the method presented here is variance-based and it is rooted in the field of Design of Experiments (DoE) where Input Variables are varied and Output Variables are measured. Based on the DoE results, a risk scoring system is developed to identify the sensitivity of the Input Variables, and as a …

Uncertainty Assessment In High-Risk Environments Using Probability, Evidence Theory And Expert Judgment Elicitation, Stella Barberis Bondi

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The level of uncertainty in advanced system design is assessed by comparing the results of expert judgment elicitation to probability and evidence theory. This research shows how one type of monotone measure, namely Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence can expand the framework of uncertainty to provide decision makers a more robust solution space. The issues imbedded in this research are focused on how the relevant predictive uncertainty produced by similar action is measured.

This methodology uses the established approach from traditional probability theory and Dempster-Shafer evidence theory to combine two classes of uncertainty, aleatory and epistemic. Probability theory provides the mathematical …

Software Development Project Risk Management: A Literature Review, Kevin Macg. Adams, C. Ariel Pinto

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The rapid and unprecedented growth in software has brought with it some of the most spectacular and costly project failures in modern history. How risk management is presented in the scholarly journals may give insight into the risk management methods and techniques in use on software development projects. This paper provides a glimpse into the risk management methods, methodologies and techniques available to those who are responsible for software development projects by conducting a non-experimental content analysis. The findings reveal that risk management has not received sufficient attention and does not appear to be widely accepted within the software engineering …

The Effects Of A Modified Gantt Chart Depicting Schedule Risk, Joseph Allen Hope

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The tools and methodologies used to manage projects continue to evolve. A popular project management tool for monitoring a project's schedule is the Gantt chart. The Gantt chart provides information about projected start and end times for each task of a project. A critical limitation of the Gantt chart, however, is its inability to depict uncertainty surrounding the project schedule, or project schedule risk. The present study investigated the effectiveness of three alternative formats for depicting schedule risk. The three presentation formats used were a table, a table with a traditional Gantt chart, and a table and a modified Gantt …

Development Of An Aggregation Methodology For Risk Analysis In Aerospace Conceptual Vehicle Design, Trina Marsh Chytka

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The growing complexity of technical systems has emphasized a need to gather as much information as possible regarding specific systems of interest in order to make robust, sound decisions about their design and deployment. Acquiring as much data as possible requires the use of empirical statistics, historical information and expert opinion. In much of the aerospace conceptual design environment, the lack of historical information and infeasibility of gathering empirical data relegates the data collection to expert opinion.

The conceptual design of a space vehicle requires input from several disciplines (weights and sizing, operations, trajectory, etc.). In this multidisciplinary environment, the …

Lunar Lava Tube Radiation Safety Analysis, Giovanni De Angelis, J. W. Wilson, M. S. Clowdsley, J. E. Nealy, D. H. Humes, J. M. Clem

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

For many years it has been suggested that lava tubes on the Moon could provide an ideal location for a manned lunar base, by providing shelter from various natural hazards, such as cosmic radiation, meteorites, micrometeoroids, and impact crater ejecta, and also providing a natural environmental control, with a nearly constant temperature, unlike that of the lunar surface showing extreme variation in its diurnal cycle. An analysis of radiation safety issues on lunar lava tubes has been performed by considering radiation from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and Solar Particle Events (SPE) interacting with the lunar surface, modeled as a regolith …

Incorporating Heterogeneity In Command Center Interactions, Holly A. H. Handley, Alexander H. Levis

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

One of the many complexities of multinational coalition operations stems from differences in culture, military procedures, and command and control processes between the cooperating command centers. These differences can influence the interactions between decision makers of different command centers and can affect the outcome of the coalition operation. A coalition model, composed of individual models of the five-stage interacting decision maker model, was used in a virtual experiment. The subjective parameters included in the decision maker model can be any attribute that characterizes the heterogeneity of the decision makers. In this case, the parameters of power distance and uncertainty avoidance …

An Integrated Risk Analysis Methodology In A Multidisciplinary Design Environment, Katrina R. Hampton

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Design of complex, one-of-a-kind systems, such as space transportation systems, is characterized by high uncertainty and, consequently, high risk. It is necessary to account for these uncertainties in the design process to produce systems that are more reliable. Systems designed by including uncertainties and managing them, as well, are more robust and less prone to poor operations as a result of parameter variability.

The quantification, analysis and mitigation of uncertainties are challenging tasks as many systems lack historical data. In such an environment, risk or uncertainty quantification becomes subjective because input data is based on professional judgment. Additionally, there are …

A Synthesized Methodology For Eliciting Expert Judgment For Addressing Uncertainty In Decision Analysis, Richard W. Monroe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the development, refinement, and demonstration of an expert judgment elicitation methodology. The methodology has been developed by synthesizing the literature across several social science and scientific fields. The foremost consideration in the methodology development has been to incorporate elements that are based on reasonable expectations for the human capabilities of the user, the expert in this case.

Many methodologies exist for eliciting assessments for uncertain events. These are frequently elicited in probability form. This methodology differs by incorporating a qualitative element as a beginning step for the elicitation process. The qualitative assessment is a more reasonable way …

The Effects Of Risk Management Program Implementation On Worker Safety Knowledge, John C. Donnelly

Community & Environmental Health Theses & Dissertations

This study examined the effect of the implementation of a risk management program tool on worker safety knowledge in a composite building material fabrication facility whose workers suffered from an increasingly high injury (incidence) rate in recent years. Risk assessment codes (RACs) and job safety analyses (JSAs) were the primary tools used to introduce workers to the concept of risk. Because employee involvement is a crucial element in JSA development. employee input was frequently solicited throughout JSA development.

The study instrument consisted of a pre-test and post-test survey, to which an experimental and control group were subjected. The instrument was …

Development Of A Knowledge Based System For Wastewater Pipeline Failure Risk Assessment, Adam Mayanzani Ngaliga

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this thesis was to study and analyze the wastewater pipeline failure risk assessment process, and then design and develop an effective and efficient wastewater pipeline risk assessment tool for the Hampton Roads Sanitation District, in Virginia, U.S.A. A knowledge based system was developed using an expert system building shell (Xi-Plus).

The system design is based on the knowledge elicited from the experts and literature in sanitary pipeline failure risk evaluation. The knowledge base contains both heuristics and procedural rules. The system interprets the information provided by the user and reasons from that information to reach conclusions on …

Large Capacity Missile Carrier (Cmx), C. N. Calvano, J. M. Berner, J. M. Bradley, K. A. Tosiello, D. T. Hooker, C. F. Merrill

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

A systems engineering approach to the development of a radically different kind of surface combatant ship is presented, followed by a preliminary design of the ship shown by the analysis to be most effective. The requirement for the project was the development of a ship which would provide a major increase in the missile firepower of a battlegroup. The study conducts an analysis of four warfare scenarios and evaluates the effectiveness of replacing some Aegis ships with the missile carrier (CMX) and examines the relative utility of varying missile loads for the CMX. An alternative is chosen for further development …