Risk Analysis Commons^™

Conceptual Development Of A Probabilistic Graphical Framework For Assessing Port Resilience, Katherine Smith, Rafael Diaz, Yuzhong Shen, Francesco Longo

VMASC Publications

Technological advances such as cyber physical systems and autonomous vehicles combined with increased disruptions including the Covid-19 pandemic and coastal natural disasters have heightened the importance of port risk analysis methodologies and frameworks that can accurately quantify and optimize resilience. This work presents the conceptual development of a novel combination of analysis methodologies linking a probabilistic graphic approach on a network of risk events with a functional dependency approach on a system network. Key advantages of these two methodologies are the ability to model and learn causal interactions rather than simply correlations and a high level of computational efficiency. This …

Using Interacting Multiple Model Filters To Indicate Program Risk, Amy Sunshine Smith-Carroll

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Technology development has increased exponentially. Program managers are pushed to accelerate development. There are many resources available to program managers that enable acceleration, such as: additional resources in the form of funding, people and technology. There are also negative impacts to acceleration, such as: inclusion, inexperience program managers, and communication. This research seeks to identify the limit to which a program or project can be accelerated before the program manager begins to accept an unacceptable amount of pre-determined risk.

This research will utilize estimation algorithms used by sensor systems to estimate the current and future state of objects in space. …

A Framework For Adaptive Capacity In Complex Systems, Abdulrahman Alfaqiri

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Complex systems are characterized by their high level of inter-connectivity, ambiguity, and emergence. Therefore, a failure in one element of a system (e.g. cyber layer) due to external or internal disturbances can lead to a cascade effect that may influence all elements of the system. Consequently, the complex system will not be able to perform its functional performance. Threats related to complex systems are very dynamic, fast, complex and damage can be severe. Thus, to respond to the dynamic and unpredictable nature of these threats, complex systems need to be highly adaptive to survive and thrive in the face of …

Human Supremacy As Posthuman Risk, Daniel Estrada

The Journal of Sociotechnical Critique

Human supremacy is the widely held view that human interests ought to be privileged over other interests as a matter of ethics and public policy. Posthumanism is the historical situation characterized by a critical reevaluation of anthropocentrist theory and practice. This paper draws on animal studies, critical posthumanism, and the critique of ideal theory in Charles Mills and Serene Khader to address the appeal to human supremacist rhetoric in AI ethics and policy discussions, particularly in the work of Joanna Bryson. This analysis identifies a specific risk posed by human supremacist policy in a posthuman context, namely the classification of …

Backing Up Into Advocacy: The Case Of Smartphone Driver Distraction, Robert Rosenberger

The Journal of Sociotechnical Critique

For the last decade, I’ve been studying the topic of the driving impairment of smartphones. While this began as an exclusively academic project, it has increasingly compelled public engagement. One example of this came in an opinion piece I wrote in 2018 in response to a new traffic law. I take the opportunity here to fill out the academic backstory of this particular op-ed, reflect on how this larger project has evolved to include an unanticipated public-facing edge, and abstract some lessons about public writing.

The Impact Of Human Assurance On Satellite Operations, Holly Handley, Dan Heimerdinger, Unal Tatar (Ed.), Adrian V. Gheorghe (Ed.), Omer F. Keskin (Ed.), Jean Muylaert (Ed.)

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Mission assurance is a method to guarantee mission success against a known set of risks; mission assurance is generally represented as a probability against a threshold of acceptable performance. Human assurance can be considered as the likelihood of acceptable operator performance given a set of conditions that include the operator, the system, and the environment. Standard mission assurance models tend to assume a qualified crew, but do not include other aspects of the internal or external environment that may impact the reliability of the human operator. A human assurance model can be created that allows the exploration of the variability …

Systemic Analysis Of The Use Of Artificial Intelligence (Ai) In Regulating Terrorist Content On Social Media Ecosystem Using Functional Dependency Network Analysis (Fdna), Alaina Roman, C. Ariel Pinto

OUR Journal: ODU Undergraduate Research Journal

This research is a systemic analysis of emerging risks to the use Artificial Intelligence (AI) in regulating terrorist content on social media ecosystems using Functional Dependency Network Analysis (FDNA), a proven system-design-and-analysis tool). The research has three phases: 1) framing the problem by identifying and describing AI ecosystem elements as intended, implied and explicit objectives, discernible attributes, and performance indictors; 2) describing the idealized problem-solved scenario, which includes detailing ‘success’ states of the ecosystem; and 3) systemic risk analysis including identifying failure scenarios for each element and establishing causalities among elemental attributes leading to failure scenarios. This research contributes toward …

Defects Analysis Of Seat Belt Tensioner Cast Body, Artur Soroczński, Piotr Czyżewski, Krzysztof Rechowicz

VMASC Publications

The article presents an analysis of the implementation of a selected element of the traveler safety system used in road transport. The results of metallographic tests were presented, and the state of stress introduced to the casting by means of forming the element by means of plastic forming was analyzed. An analysis of the manufacturing process was carried out indicating the risks that may lead to cracks in the material structure. Possible causes of founding defects were pointed out and possible technological solutions were pointed out in order to avoid them.

Measuring Risks Of Interdependencies In Enterprise Systems: An Application To Ghana’S Salt Enterprise, Yaw Mensah

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the use of Functional Dependency Network Analysis (FDNA) for modeling risks resulting from dependencies among elements of enterprise systems with application to salt processing enterprise in Ghana. FDNA was developed to model dependencies among members of enterprise systems by highlighting two dimensions of dependency: strength and criticality. Nonetheless, the concepts and analytics for these two dimensions of dependencies needed further development and generalization in the context of project management and systems development in developing countries.

Managing risks within the interdependency in enterprise systems through integration will help improve global economic growth. Coherent theory for enterprise integration must …

A Study To Determine How To Measure The Laser Safety Climate At Academic Institutions, John Settlemyer

OTS Master's Level Projects & Papers

Statement of Problem

The purpose of this study was to determine if the laser safety climate can be measured at academic institutions and what factors would provide valid measures of the laser safety climate at academic institutions. Specifically, the study attempted to answer the following questions:

Research Questions

RQ1. Can laser safety climate be measured at academic institutions using a climate survey instrument?

RQ2. What factors should be measured by a laser safety climate instrument?

RQ3. What measures would provide actionable data for prescriptive intervention by laser safety professionals at academic institutions? (p. 4)

Responding To Some Challenges Posed By The Re-Identification Of Anonymized Personal Data, Herman T. Tavani, Frances S. Grodzinsky

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

In this paper, we examine a cluster of ethical controversies generated by the re-identification of anonymized personal data in the context of big data analytics, with particular attention to the implications for personal privacy. Our paper is organized into two main parts. Part One examines some ethical problems involving re-identification of personally identifiable information (PII) in large data sets. Part Two begins with a brief description of Moor and Weckert’s Dynamic Ethics (DE) and Nissenbaum’s Contextual Integrity (CI) Frameworks. We then investigate whether these frameworks, used together, can provide us with a more robust scheme for analyzing privacy concerns that …

Difference Between Algorithmic Processing And The Process Of Lifeworld (Lebenswelt), Domenico Schneider

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

The following article compares the temporality of the life-world with the digital processing. The temporality of the life-world is determined to be stretched and spontaneous. The temporality of the digital is given by discrete step-by-step points of time. Most ethical issues can be traced back to a mismatch of these two ways of processing. This creates a foundation for the ethics of the digital processing. Methodologically, phenomenological considerations are merged with media-philosophical considerations in the article.

A Ulysses Pact With Artificial Systems. How To Deliberately Change The Objective Spirit With Cultured Ai, Bruno Gransche

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

The article introduces a concept of cultured technology, i.e. intelligent systems capable of interacting with humans and showing (or simulating) manners, of following customs and of socio-sensitive considerations. Such technologies might, when deployed on a large scale, influence and change the realm of human customs, traditions, standards of acceptable behavior, etc. This realm is known as the "objective spirit" (Hegel), which usually is thought of as being historically changing but not subject to deliberate human design. The article investigates the question of whether the purposeful design of interactive technologies (as cultured technologies) could enable us to shape modes of …

A Metacognitive Approach To Trust And A Case Study: Artificial Agency, Ioan Muntean

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

Trust is defined as a belief of a human H (`the trustor') about the ability of an agent A (the `trustee') to perform future action(s). We adopt here dispositionalism and internalism about trust: H trusts A iff A has some internal dispositions as competences. The dispositional competences of A are high-level metacognitive requirements, in the line of a naturalized virtue epistemology. (Sosa, Carter) We advance a Bayesian model of two (i) confidence in the decision and (ii) model uncertainty. To trust A, H demands A to be self-assertive about confidence and able to self-correct its own models. In the Bayesian …

Keeping Anonymity At The Consumer Behavior On The Internet: Proof Of Sacrifice, Sachio Horie

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

The evolution of the Internet and AI technology has made it possible for the government and the businesses to keep track of their personal lives. GAFA continues to collect information unintended by the individuals. It is a threat that our privacy is violated in this way. In order to solute such problems, it is important to consider a mechanism that enables us to be peaceful lives while protecting privacy in the Internet society.

This paper focuses on the consumption behavior on the Internet and addresses anonymity. We consider some network protocols that enable sustainable consensus by combining anonymity methods such …

Legal And Technical Issues For Text And Data Mining In Greece, Maria Kanellopoulou - Botti, Marinos Papadopoulos, Christos Zampakolas, Paraskevi Ganatsiou

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

Web harvesting and archiving pertains to the processes of collecting from the web and archiving of works that reside on the Web. Web harvesting and archiving is one of the most attractive applications for libraries which plan ahead for their future operation. When works retrieved from the Web are turned into archived and documented material to be found in a library, the amount of works that can be found in said library can be far greater than the number of works harvested from the Web. The proposed participation in the 2019 CEPE Conference aims at presenting certain issues related to …

On The Responsibility For Uses Of Downstream Software, Marty J. Wolf, Keith W. Miller, Frances S. Grodzinsky

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

In this paper we explore an issue that is different from whether developers are responsible for the direct impact of the software they write. We examine, instead, in what ways, and to what degree, developers are responsible for the way their software is used “downstream.” We review some key scholarship analyzing responsibility in computing ethics, including some recent work by Floridi. We use an adaptation of a mechanism developed by Floridi to argue that there are features of software that can be used as guides to better distinguish situations where a software developer might share in responsibility for the software’s …

Quantifying Impact Of Cyber Actions On Missions Or Business Processes: A Multilayer Propagative Approach, Unal Tatar

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Ensuring the security of cyberspace is one of the most significant challenges of the modern world because of its complexity. As the cyber environment is getting more integrated with the real world, the direct impact of cybersecurity problems on actual business frequently occur. Therefore, operational and strategic decision makers in particular need to understand the cyber environment and its potential impact on business. Cyber risk has become a top agenda item for businesses all over the world and is listed as one of the most serious global risks with significant financial implications for businesses.

Risk analysis is one of the …

An Investigation Of General Criteria For Assessing Space Flight Systems Of Diverse Mission Concept Designs, Cindy L. Daniels

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this research is to investigate the general criteria for assessing the technical implementation risk factors of proposed space science missions at the mission concept stage. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Flight Program and Project Management Handbook (NASA, 2012), the mission concept review objectives are “To evaluate the feasibility of the proposed mission concept(s) and its fulfillment of the program's needs and objectives. To determine whether the maturity of the concept and associated planning are sufficient to begin Phase A” (p.33). Experts previously defined two technical risk factors, to assess aspects of the …

Management Strategy Evaluation: Transdisciplinary And Transparent Natural Resource Management, Eileen Hofmann, Lisa Maddison, Ingrid Van Putten

CCPO Publications

Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) is a modelling tool used to evaluate sufficiently realistic simulations of potential policy choices in complex systems. As a contribution to the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) project IMBIZO V, which occurred in October 2017, a workshop was convened with the goal of developing a coherent understanding of best-practice approaches for MSEs. MSEs are becoming standard approaches to characterizing risk across fisheries management organizations globally. MSEs are important tools that aid in delineating objectives, costs, and constraints that define risk and provide a possible mechanism to meet assessment challenges. The MSE workshop considered case studies drawn …

Introduction - Syllabus, C. Ariel Pinto

Module 1: Fundamentals of Cybersecurity Risk Management

Cybersecurity risk management is a necessary tool for decision making for all management levels from tactical to strategic and creating a common understanding between people from diverse domains or having different priorities. This course adopts a multidisciplinary perspective. It creates a common understanding of risk for a diverse set of students which are coming from different disciplines such as technical, social, economics, law, and politics to remove communication barriers between strategic, operational, and tactical level decision makers.

The course covers related government and industry regulations and standards along with best practices frequently used to assess, analyze and manage cyber risks, …

Pathology-Informed Approach In Vulnerability Assessment Methods, Polinpapilinho F. Katina, Adrian V. Gheorghe, Charles B. Keating

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

A system pathology is a circumstance, condition, or pattern that acts to limit system performance, or lessen system viability, such that the likelihood of a system achieving performance expectation is reduced. The idea of pathology has been described in multiple fields, including computer science, organizational studies, policy analysis, system-of-systems engineering, and systems engineering. However, there is scarcity of literature describing relationship between system pathology and vulnerability assessment. The aim of this study lies at the intersection of system pathology and vulnerability assessment in engineered systems. First, authors provide the state of the art review of literature on system pathology. Second, …

Transforming Yekaterinburg Into A Safe, Resilient-Smart And Sustainable City, S. A. Timashev, V. N. Alekhin, L. V. Poluyan, I. Fontanals, A. Gheorghe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The initiative (since 2014) project described in this paper is a product of a joint innovative research and implementation effort of the Civil Engineering and Architecture Institute, Ural Federal University, the Science and Engineering Centre "Reliability and Safety of Large Systems and Machines", Ural Branch Russian Academy of Sciences (both Yekaterinburg), Start-up OptiCits, Barcelona, Spain and the Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA. The project is based on using the MAICS convergent technology [1] to create a versatile multi-purpose tool for optimizing the science and art of risk based governance of resilience-smart and sustainable city infrastructure and communities operating in …

Engineers' Motivation To Influence Public Decision Making: A Grounded Theory Approach, Sarah Bouazzaoui, Charles B. Daniels

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

In the United States of America, public policies and public decision making associated with the engineering field are set by individuals who does not possess expertise and knowledge to carry out these tasks [1]. Most of decision makers are lawyers and social scientists, not engineers [2]. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the various factors which either encourage or inhibit engineers from influencing and participating in public policy. In this study, a grounded theory approach will be followed, data will be collected using semi-structured interviews and analyzed to develop a theory of research direct toward increasing the motivation …

A Systems-Based Framework For Design And Analysis Of An R And D Structure, Polinpapilinho F. Katina, Charles B. Keating, Luna M. Magpili

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

A critical challenge for managerial effectiveness and competitive advantage in research and development (R and D) organizations is developing an appropriate structural configuration. However, in finding an appropriate structural configuration, R and D managers are faced with unprecedented levels of uncertainty, ambiguity, and accelerating complexity, coupled with demands for increased productivity. This paper develops a systems-based framework to support rigorous design, analysis, and transformation of the structure for R and D organizations. The framework development includes: (1) a review of the literature for the nature and role of the structure in R and D management; (2) setting of the R …

The Impact Of Requirements Management Documentation On Software Project Outcomes In Health Care, Sujatha Alla, Pilar Pazos, Rolando Delaguila

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Despite considerable time and resources spent on the initiation phase of software projects, discrepancies often exist between formal project documentation, customer requirements, and final project specifications. Such discrepancies in the requirements management process can have a very negative impact on final project outcomes. The Business Requirements Document (BRD) constitutes the formal software requirements documentation, which typically includes stakeholders’ needs and expectations and project scope while providing a clear project roadmap and project plan. According to IEEE standards, a BRD should be a structured document that includes specific elements such as functional and technical requirements while incorporating certain traits such as …

A Simulation-Based Approach To Risk Assessment And Mitigation In Supply Chain Networks, Mamadou Seck, Ghaith Rabadi, Christian Koestler

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

We present in this paper a simulation-based approach to evaluate the risk associated with supply chain disruptions caused by failures in some supply chains nodes and measure the impact of such disruptions on supply chain key performance measures (KPIs) of interest. The proposed framework enables analysts and managers to repeatedly assess the risk to their supply chains based on various simulated scenarios and identify the most critical nodes whose disruption will have the highest impact on the KPIs of interest. As a result, companies can focus on the most critical supply chain assets and develop targeted mitigation plans that minimize …

Can Strategic Risk Management Contribute To Enterprise Risk Management? A Strategic Management Perspective, Phil Bromiley, Devaki Rau, Michael K. Mcshane

Finance Faculty Publications

Within the discipline of enterprise risk management (ERM), strategic risk management (SRM) has become a subject of increasing interest to practitioners and academics. To our knowledge, the term “strategic risk management” first appeared in the management literature in 1985 and 1986 (Jammine, 1985; Figenbaum & Thomas, 1986) and in the academic finance literature in 1990 (Rawls and Smithson, 1990), although early usage of the term did not clearly relate to later conceptions. The phrase has been in use even longer than ERM (Bromiley, McShane, Nair, and Rustambekov, 2014). Even with this longevity, the meaning of the term remains unclear, with …

Safety Culture Monitoring: A Management Approach For Assessing Nuclear Safety Culture Health Performance Utilizing Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis, James Harold Warren Jr.

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Nuclear power plants are among the most technologically complex of all energy facilities. This complexity reflects the precision needed in design, maintenance and operations to harness the energy of the atom safely, reliably and economically. Nuclear energy thus requires consistent, high levels of organizational performance by the highly skilled professionals who operate and maintain nuclear power plants (Nuclear Energy Institute [NEI], 2014, p. 1).

A key element for achieving consistent, high levels of performance in a nuclear organization is its safety culture. Nuclear safety culture is for an organization what character and personality is for an individual: a feature that …

Naval Aviation Squadron Risk Analysis Predictive Bayesian Network Modeling Using Maintenance Climate Assessment Survey Results, Harry Michael Robinson

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Associated risks in flying have resulted in injury or death to aircrew and passengers, and damage or destruction of the aircraft and its surroundings. Although the Naval Aviation's flight mishap rate declined over the past 60 years, the proportion of human error causal factors has stayed relatively constant at about 80%. Efforts to reduce human errors have focused attention on understanding the aircrew and maintenance actions occurring in complex systems.

One such tool has been the Naval Aviation squadrons' regular participation in survey questionnaires deigned to measure respondent ratings related to personal judgments or perceptions of organizational climate for meeting …