Risk Analysis Commons^™

Ship Pollution Risk Assessment Of Taicang Port, Shuai Shuai

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Wartime Construction Project Outcomes As A Function Of Contract Type, Ryan M. Hoff, Gregory D. Hammond, Peter P. Feng, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

The United States has spent more than $23 billion on construction in Afghanistan since 2001. The dynamic security situation created substantial project uncertainty, and many construction projects used cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts (CPFF) instead of the firm-fixed-price (FFP) norm. Using a dataset of 25 wartime construction projects managed by the Air Force Civil Engineer Center, the authors sought to confirm that both contract types yield project outcomes consistent with the established literature. As expected, they found CPFF contracts had greater cost and schedule growth than FFP. However, they did not find differences regarding as-built quality. Additionally, the authors sought to determine whether …

Well I'Ll Be Damned - Insights Into Predictive Value Of Pedigree Information In Horse Racing, Timothy Baker Mr, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie Johnson Professor, Tiejun Ma

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Fundamental form characteristics like how fast a horse ran at its last start, are widely used to help predict the outcome of horse racing events. The exception being in races where horses haven’t previously competed, such as Maiden races, where there is little or no publicly available past performance information. In these types of events bettors need only consider a simplified suite of factors however this is offset by a higher level of uncertainty. This paper examines the inherent information content embedded within a horse’s ancestry and the extent to which this information is discounted in the United Kingdom bookmaker …

Prosense, Johnny Favazza Ii, Casey Glasgow, Matt Epperson

Computer Engineering

This project aims to gather advanced data sets from MEMS sensors and GPS and deliver it to the user, who can capitalize on the data. The once negligible half-degree difference of your board barreling down a wave can be recorded from a gyro and exploited for the perfect turn. The exact speed dreaded by longboarders where speed wobbles turn into a road rash can be analysed and consequently avoided. Ascertaining the summit of your flight using combined GPS sensors from the ski ramp allows for the correct timing of tricks. When it comes to pursuing excellence in professional sports, amateur …

Developing A Risk Analysis Model To Improve Study Abroad Awareness, Tyler Spain

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

As international education opportunities increase in popularity among U.S. college students (McMurtrie, 2007), it is becoming more and more necessary for study abroad organizations to be aware of the risks students face as they travel abroad. While some international cities are riskier than others, it can be difficult to distinguish between cities which truly carry a high degree of risk for visiting students, and which cities are only perceived to be risky based on various personal misconceptions. The University of Arkansas Office of Study Abroad & International Exchange currently lacks a way to quantifiably analyze the risk of study abroad …

Financial Performance In Upstream, Downstream, And Integrated Oil Companies In Response To Oil Price Volatility, Jonathan P. Garcia

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper investigates the relation between crude oil price volatility and stock returns among oil companies using a three-part methodology, by using the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as oil price benchmark. I asses the various indicators that set signals for oil price volatility and the interpretation of each (PMI, S&P500, DJIA, and World Crude Oil Output). This research also focuses on the relation between different types of companies in the oil industry (integrated, upstream, and downstream) and how each type of company will be assessed in a particular way to predict abnormal returns, based on market data and statistical analyses …

A Method Of Mapping Sinkhole Susceptibility Using A Geographic Information System: A Case Study For Interstates In The Karst Counties Of Virginia, Alexandra L. Todd, Lindsay Ivey-Burden

Sinkhole Conference 2015

Karst terrain is landscape underlain by limestone that has been chemically dissolved by acidic groundwater, producing subsurface voids that pose risks for sinkholes if the overlaying soils can no longer support their own weight and collapse. The western counties of Virginia are heavy in karst due to their natural, geographic boundary of the western Ridge Province and the eastern Blue Ridge Mountain Range. As a result, the Commonwealth of Virginia Hazard Mitigation Plan recommends that the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) develop a method to determine the roadways and regions most susceptible to experiencing sinkholes, in an effort to reduce …

A Machine Learning Approach To Post-Market Surveillance Of Medical Devices, Jonathan Bates, Shu-Xia Li, Craig Parzynski, Ronald Coifman, Harlan Krumholz, Joseph Ross

Yale Day of Data

Post-market surveillance is a collection of processes and activities used by product manufacturers and regulators, such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to monitor the safety and effectiveness of medical devices once they are available for use “on the market”. These activities are designed to generate information to identify poorly performing devices and other safety problems, accurately characterize real-world device performance and clinical outcomes, and facilitate the development of new devices, or new uses for existing devices. Typically, a device is monitored by comparing adverse events in the exposed population to a matched unexposed population. This research considers …

Research On Prevention Of Ship-Induced Pollution To Drinking Water Source In The Yangtze Estuary Of Shanghai Sector, Detong Zhu

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

The Simulation & Evaluation Of Surge Hazard Using A Response Surface Method In The New York Bight, Michael H. Bredesen

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric features, such as tropical cyclones, act as a driving mechanism for many of the major hazards affecting coastal areas around the world. Accurate and efficient quantification of tropical cyclone surge hazard is essential to the development of resilient coastal communities, particularly given continued sea level trend concerns. Recent major tropical cyclones that have impacted the northeastern portion of the United States have resulted in devastating flooding in New York City, the most densely populated city in the US. As a part of national effort to re-evaluate coastal inundation hazards, the Federal Emergency Management Agency used the Joint Probability Method …

Application Of Trip Generation Models For Urban Transport Planning In A Data Scarce Developing Country City: The Case Of Dar Es Salaam, Hannibal Bwire

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

With the increase in travel demand and traffic management problems in many developing countries cities, travel demand forecasting models are being employed increasingly to make informed decisions about the operational improvements to the existing transportation system and the design and performance of future transportation systems. The main advantage of using travel demand forecasting models for such purposes is that they are capable of capturing the interactive effects of different components of the system under study. However, for some time now there have been concerns about the application of transport planning models in developing countries. The concerns have been mainly in …

Security Analysis On Network Systems Based On Some Stochastic Models, Xiaohu Li

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

Due to great effort from mathematicians, physicists and computer scientists, network science has attained rapid development during the past decades. However, because of the complexity, most researches in this area are conducted only based upon experiments and simulations, it is critical to do research based on theoretical results so as to gain more insight on how the structure of a network affects the security. This dissertation introduces some stochastic and statistical models on certain networks and uses a k-out-of-n tolerant structure to characterize both logically and physically the behavior of nodes. Based upon these models, we draw several illuminating results …

The Selecting And Risk Analysis Of Temporary Anchor Positions In The Port Area Of Qinhuangdao, Shangying Zhang

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Ship Oil Spilling Risk Analysis Of Petrochemical Terminal In Weihai Port, Hao Deng

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Risk Assessment Of Navigation Safety In The Water Area Of Bohai, Bingcong Dai

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Study On Environmental Risk Assessment Of Oil Spill Accidents In Shanghai Port, Jingzhou Chang

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Application Of Remotely Sensed Rainfall Data In Rainfall-Runoff Modelling. A Case Of Pangani River Basin, Tanzania, Joel Nobert

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Rainfall runoff modelling in a river basin is vital for number of hydrologic application including water resources assessment. However, rainfall data from sparse gauging stations are usually inadequate for modelling which is a major concern in Tanzania. This study presents the results of comparison of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite rainfall products at daily and monthly time-steps with ground stations rainfall data; and explores the possibility of using satellite rainfall data for rainfall runoff modelling in Pangani River Basin, Tanzania. Statistical analysis was carried out to find the correlation between the ground stations data and TRMM estimates. It was …

Accuracy Of Dem-Based Topographic Data In Flood Inundation Modelling: A Case Of Wami River, Tanzania, Preksedis Ndomba

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Ihe objective of this Biper is to evaluate and further convnent on the accuracy of the DEW- based topographic data us input in flood mchdelling. Recent studies have indicated that hydraulic of the modified sections based on high resolution are geometrically and hydraulically similar to the measured ones, In the study hydraulic modelling intended to guide a developnent project whereby a protection embankment is contemplated. Therefore, accuracy in terns of positioning/alignment of natural features such as river banks and heights/elevarions was imperative m arrain. In order m achieve these, accuracy of various topographic data sources were qualitatively and/or quantitatively before …

Data Preparation For Validation Study Of Hazus Canada Flood Model, Heather Mcgrath, Emmanual Stefanakis, M Mccarthy, Miroslav Nastev

International Institute for Infrastructure Resilience and Reconstruction (I3R2) Conference

As our climate changes, the occurrence of extreme weather events and heavier rainfall becomes more common. This change in weather patterns and precipitation results in a greater number of recorded flood events and a larger magnitude of flood events. Canadian municipalities are therefore facing a pressing demand to perform hazard assessments to identify communities at risk and measure potential economic and societal losses due to flood events. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a standardized tool, Hazus-MH, for loss estimation from natural disasters for use in the US. Recently, Hazus has been adapted for use in Canada. This paper introduces …

Optimising The Performance Of Roundabouts In Dar Es Salaam City, David Mfinanga

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Intersections are one of the major bottlenecks that aggravate congestion in road networks; effective control of which is an important strategy in improving traffic flow. While developing countries have found it hard to adopt sophisticated means of intersection control, they have also not optimised the performance of roundabouts. This paper reviews the performance of roundabouts, which have become increasingly popular in recent years, as simple and low cost forms of intersection control. The performance of three major roundabouts in Dar es Salaam has been analysed and results show that roundabouts can accommodate high traffic volumes without causing excessive delays. The …

Quantifying Risks Of Climate Change And Sea Level Rise To Naval Station Norfolk (Serdp Rc-1701), Kelly Burks-Copes

October 2, 2013: Quantifying Risks and Moving Forward

No abstract provided.

Issue Brief: Saving By Mitigating, University Of Louisville, New England Environmental Finance Center

Sustainable Communities Capacity Building

Natural disasters can cause loss of life, inflict damage to buildings and infrastructure, and have devastating consequences for a community’s economic, social, and environmental well-being. Hazard mitigation means reducing damages from disasters.

Local governments have the responsibility to protect the health, safety, and welfare of their citizens. Proactive mitigation policies and actions help reduce risk and create safer, more disaster-resilient communities. Mitigation is an investment in your community’s future safety, equity, and sustainability.

Safety Evaluation On Navigation Environment Of Xiazhimen Channel Based On Cloud Mode, Pengpeng Ye

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Safety Assessment Of Navigational Environment In Dalian Beiliang Port, Miao Wang

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Safety Analysis Of Ice Navigation In Huanghua Waters, Hongtu Qiu

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

A Prototype Decision Support Tool For Ballast Water Risk Management Using A Combination Of Hydrodynamic Models And Agent-Based Modelling, Fleming T. Hansen, Jesper H. Andersen, Michael Potthof, Thomas Uhrenholdt, Hong D. Vo, Olof Lindén

NSBWO

We report the development of a prototype Decision Support Tool (DST) for modelling the risks of spreading of non-indegenous invasive species via ballast water. The DST constitutes of two types of models: A 3D hydrodynamical model calculates the currents in the North Sea and Danish Straits, and an agent-based model estimates the dispersal of selected model organisms with the prevailing currents calculated by the 3D hydrodynamical model. The analysis is concluded by a post processing activity, where scenarios of dispersal are combined into an interim estimate of connectivity within the study area. The latter can be used as a tool …

Problems And Prospects Of Hydraulic Modelling For Environmental Flows Assessment Studies In East Africa, Preksedis Ndomba

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The objective of this paper is to document the problems and prospects of hydraulic modelling for Environmental Flows Assessment (EFA) studies based on selected case studies. Most of studies in East Africa use Holistic methodologies. An ideal data set for defining river hydraulics for most of these methods would be six data points of stage measurements over a good distribution of discharges, the stage of zero discharge and some flood-related data. Besides, in East African region EFA studies suffer from data scarcity (i.e., poorly gauged sites) and limited expertise and funding. The hydraulics studies conducted by the authors entailed desktop …

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model And Stpa Tool, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

The goal of this article is dual: first, introducing a new model of accident named STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes); then applying the model to an innovative process for the treatment of contaminated substances and the re-use of treated substances. This article is a demonstration for a need of a new tool to take into account hazards and safety within socio-technical systems.

Experiments To Measure The Effects Of Timber Harvesting Equipment On Surface Lithic Scatters, Douglas J. Baughman

All Master's Theses

The importance of cultural resource preservation cannot be overstated; however local economies are at least as important. Due to conservative archaeological site protection practices in Region 5 of the United States Forest Service, the economy of Northeastern California is being adversely affected. In an attempt to help the Forest Service make more informed management decisions and improve the Northeastern California economy, I undertook experiments on the effects of timber harvesting on lithic scatters on Modoc National Forest. The experiments involved placement of 225 glass tiles (proxy lithics) in each of three plots subject to vehicle traffic and log dragging by …

Using A Systemic Model Of Accident For Improving Innovative Technologies: Application And Limitations Of The Stamp Model To A Process For Treatment Of Contaminated Substances, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

This paper presents the STAMP accident model, based on systems theory, and describes its application in the context of risk prevention related to the remediation of contaminated materials. The implementation of the model is described, and results are presented both in methodological and technical terms.