Risk Analysis Commons^™

Exploring The Spillover Effects Between The Cargo Market And Shipping Market : The Case Of The Dry Bulk Market, Yifeng Li

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

A Framework For Adaptive Capacity In Complex Systems, Abdulrahman Alfaqiri

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Complex systems are characterized by their high level of inter-connectivity, ambiguity, and emergence. Therefore, a failure in one element of a system (e.g. cyber layer) due to external or internal disturbances can lead to a cascade effect that may influence all elements of the system. Consequently, the complex system will not be able to perform its functional performance. Threats related to complex systems are very dynamic, fast, complex and damage can be severe. Thus, to respond to the dynamic and unpredictable nature of these threats, complex systems need to be highly adaptive to survive and thrive in the face of …

Backing Up Into Advocacy: The Case Of Smartphone Driver Distraction, Robert Rosenberger

The Journal of Sociotechnical Critique

For the last decade, I’ve been studying the topic of the driving impairment of smartphones. While this began as an exclusively academic project, it has increasingly compelled public engagement. One example of this came in an opinion piece I wrote in 2018 in response to a new traffic law. I take the opportunity here to fill out the academic backstory of this particular op-ed, reflect on how this larger project has evolved to include an unanticipated public-facing edge, and abstract some lessons about public writing.

Qlime-A Quadratic Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanation Approach, Steven Bramhall, Hayley Horn, Michael Tieu, Nibhrat Lohia

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we introduce a proof of concept that addresses the assumption and limitation of linear local boundaries by Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), a popular technique used to add interpretability and explainability to black box models. LIME is a versatile explainer capable of handling different types of data and models. At the local level, LIME creates a linear relationship for a given prediction through generated sample points to present feature importance. We redefine the linear relationships presented by LIME as quadratic relationships and expand its flexibility in non-linear cases and improve the accuracy of feature interpretations. We coin …

Data-Driven Investment Decisions In P2p Lending: Strategies Of Integrating Credit Scoring And Profit Scoring, Yan Wang

Doctor of Data Science and Analytics Dissertations

In this dissertation, we develop and discuss several loan evaluation methods to guide the investment decisions for peer-to-peer (P2P) lending. In evaluating loans, credit scoring and profit scoring are the two widely utilized approaches. Credit scoring aims at minimizing the risk while profit scoring aims at maximizing the profit. This dissertation addresses the strengths and weaknesses of each scoring method by integrating them in various ways in order to provide the optimal investment suggestions for different investors. Before developing the methods for loan evaluation at the individual level, we applied the state-of-the-art method called the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) …

An Investigation Into Subject Matter Expert Elicitation In Cost Risk Analysis, Christopher W. Miller

Theses and Dissertations

This research compares the efficacy of subject matter expert (SME) elicitation methods to other cost estimation methods using a development and production dataset provided by AFLCMC/FZC. First, by using descriptive statistics to evaluate low versus high amount of the respective cost estimation methods by analyzing the means of percent cost growth for both groups. Next, this research involved using a statistics-based approach to investigate whether SME based cost estimating methods have an associated relationship to percent change of Program Acquisition Unit Costs (PAUC), which will be our proxy variable to cost growth. Using a pooled cross-sectional OLS regression analysis model …

Exploration Of Implementation And Reporting Of Hours Of Work And Hours Of Rest Onboard Ships, Bikram Singh Bhatia

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Computer Vision Machine Learning And Future-Oriented Ethics, Abagayle Lee Blank

Honors Projects

Computer Vision Machine Learning (CVML) in the application of facial recognition is currently being researched, developed, and deployed across the world. It is of interest to governments, technology companies, and consumers. However, fundamental issues remain related to human rights, error rates, and bias. These issues have the potential to create societal backlash towards the technology which could limit its benefits as well as harm people in the process. To develop facial recognition technology that will be beneficial to society in and beyond the next decade, society must put ethics at the forefront. Drawing on AI4People’s adaption of bioethics for AI, …

A Ulysses Pact With Artificial Systems. How To Deliberately Change The Objective Spirit With Cultured Ai, Bruno Gransche

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

The article introduces a concept of cultured technology, i.e. intelligent systems capable of interacting with humans and showing (or simulating) manners, of following customs and of socio-sensitive considerations. Such technologies might, when deployed on a large scale, influence and change the realm of human customs, traditions, standards of acceptable behavior, etc. This realm is known as the "objective spirit" (Hegel), which usually is thought of as being historically changing but not subject to deliberate human design. The article investigates the question of whether the purposeful design of interactive technologies (as cultured technologies) could enable us to shape modes of …

Standardisation In Construction Cost Control, Charles Mitchell

Other Resources

Poster presentation submitted as to the School of Surveying and Construction Management Research and Innovation Industry Evening, March 2019.

Project Insight: A Granular Approach To Enterprise Cybersecurity, Sunna Quazi, Adam Baca, Sam Darsche

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we disambiguate risky activity corporate users are propagating with their software in real time by creating an enterprise security visualization solution for system administrators. The current problem in this domain is the lag in cyber intelligence that inhibits preventative security measure execution. This is partially due to the overemphasis of network activity, which is a nonfinite dataset and is difficult to comprehensively ingest with analytics. We address these concerns by elaborating on the beta of a software called "Insight" created by Felix Security. The overall solution leverages endpoint data along with preexisting whitelist/blacklist designations to unambiguously communicate …

Community Resilience Management : Reflections And Strategies From Corporate Sustainability, Jennifer Schneider, John Hummel, Joseph M. Rosenbeck 4756469, Sarah Dobie

Journal of Environmental Sustainability

Creating community resilience is a daunting task, both in scope and application, therefore it is useful to examine related efforts to inform our strategy. Sustainability, specifically corporate sustainability, has developed through similar challenges and provides insight into the possible trajectory of community resilience management. We find that both concepts reflect similar origins, developmental paths and merging goals at a scale that can be systematically managed. Therefore, we describe four strategies from corporate sustainability management that can be applied to community resilience 1) consider the community context while implementing an increasingly broad view of responsibility; 2) integrate and engage across constructs; …

Next Generation Protocol: Innovating A Resilient Future, Andrew Steven Rudnick, Jamie Cannady, Joe Decesaro, Juan A. Ortiz Salazar

Materials Engineering

Conventional practices do not account for product life beyond end-of-sale – these practices are not sustainable. We have developed an end-of-life protocol that includes a metric that we call the Recovery Rating. The objectives of this Next Generation Protocol, beyond supporting the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, are to encourage the production of goods designed for recovery and to promote the collaboration between consumers, the public, and the private sector to recover goods at their end-of-life. The Recovery Rating that we propose evaluates and quantifies recovery potential of products. The Recovery Rating, which is normed against embodied energy from the …

Developing A Cyberterrorism Policy: Incorporating Individual Values, Osama Bassam J. Rabie

Theses and Dissertations

Preventing cyberterrorism is becoming a necessity for individuals, organizations, and governments. However, current policies focus on technical and managerial aspects without asking for experts and non-experts values and preferences for preventing cyberterrorism. This study employs value focused thinking and public value forum to bare strategic measures and alternatives for complex policy decisions for preventing cyberterrorism. The strategic measures and alternatives are per socio-technical process.

Environmental Risk, Resource And Production, Nancye Gannaway

Farm Systems and Economics published reports

Plan Prepare Prosper - workshop

Aims

• To identify and plan for projected changes in weather patterns and in the physical resources that underpin the productivity of the farm enterprise.
• To develop initiatives to manage observed and likely threats from the environment to farm enterprises.
• To support the achievement of long-term economic viability of land under production

Today's content will help develop risk management strategies for agricultural production systems.

Unmasking Cost Growth Behavior: A Longitudinal Study, Cory N. D'Amico, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Scott R. Kozlak

Faculty Publications

This article examines how cost growth factors (CGF) change over a program’s acquisition life cycle for 36 Department of Defense aircraft programs. Starting from Milestone B, the authors examine CGFs at five gateways: Critical Design Review, First Flight (FF), the end of Developmental Test and Evaluation (DT&E), Initial Operational Capability, and Full Operational Capability. Each CGF is assigned a color rating based upon the program’s cost growth: Green (low), Amber (moderate), or Red (high). Significant findings include dependencies among similar CGF color ratings and cost growth occurring primarily between FF and the end of DT&E during a program’s life cycle.

Implementing The Heston Option Pricing Model In Object-Oriented Cython, Brandon Hardin

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The 1973 Black-Scholes model, a revolutionary option pricing formula whose price is 'relatively close to observed prices, makes an assumption that the volatility is constant and thus, deterministic. This causes some inefficiencies and patterns in the pricing of options due to the model providing evidence of the volatility smile' of the volatility. Many scholars have suggested that the volatility should be modelled by a stochastic process and the (1993) Heston Model is one of many proposed solutions to remedy this problem. The Heston Model allows for the 'smile' by defining the volatility as a stochastic process. This thesis considers a …

High Consequence Scenarios For North Korean Atmospheric Nuclear Tests With Policy Recommendations For The U.S. Government, Thomas S. Popik, Jordan T. Kearns, George H. Baker Iii, Henry F. Cooper, William R. Harris

School of Integrated Sciences - Faculty Scholarship

The government of North Korea has declared high-altitude EMP-capability to be a “strategic goal” and has also threatened an atmospheric test of a hydrogen bomb. Atmospheric nuclear tests have the potential to cripple satellites and the undersea cable networks critical to communication, and navigation necessary for trans-Pacific trade among the U.S., China, and other nations. When a nuclear warhead is detonated at high altitude, a series of electromagnetic pulses radiate downward within the line of sight of the blast. These pulses can disable equipment with miniature electronics and long conductors. Electric grid controls and transmission systems are especially vulnerable. Intense …

Identification Of Reverse Engineering Candidates Utilizing Machine Learning And Aircraft Cannibalization Data, Marc Banghart

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

As military aircraft continue to remain in service and age, cannibalization of parts is increasing. Proactive identification of parts that are at high risk for cannibalization will inform engineering processes such as reverse engineering, thus allowing potentially reducing lead time to develop new parts. The research objective was to develop a causal structure that can be used for prediction of when cannibalization actions may occur. Bayesian networks allow encoding of causality between various descriptive features given a data set. The method utilized a tabu search algorithm, identified the underlying causal structure and the associated node probabilities. The method is then …

A Systems-Based Framework For Design And Analysis Of An R And D Structure, Polinpapilinho F. Katina, Charles B. Keating, Luna M. Magpili

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

A critical challenge for managerial effectiveness and competitive advantage in research and development (R and D) organizations is developing an appropriate structural configuration. However, in finding an appropriate structural configuration, R and D managers are faced with unprecedented levels of uncertainty, ambiguity, and accelerating complexity, coupled with demands for increased productivity. This paper develops a systems-based framework to support rigorous design, analysis, and transformation of the structure for R and D organizations. The framework development includes: (1) a review of the literature for the nature and role of the structure in R and D management; (2) setting of the R …

An Application Of Box-Jenkins Approach In Forecasting Nigerian Crude Oil Prices., Bashir Umar Faruk

Bullion

Nigerian government has been adopting Moving Average (MA) method in pegging crude oil price benchmark. However, large discrepancy between the projected oil price benchmark and the actual international crude oil prices is observed over time. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to investigate whether Box-Jenkins approach could provide a lasting solution to the problem of inefficient oil price forecast in the Nigerian budgeting process. In our quest for an appropriate oil benchmark, monthly bonny light crude oil prices for the period of April 1986 to December 2015 are used.

Transforming The Insurance Sector In Nigeriain Using The Fss 2020 Platform, Chris O. Muo

Bullion

The National lnsurance Commission (NAICOM) is the statutory Regulatory body of insurance business created to ensure the effective administration, supervision and regulation of insurance business and regulate transactions between insurers and reinsurers within and outside Nigeria. FSS 2020 Insurance Sector, in collaboration with NAICOM aims to deepen the insurance market; ensure lnsurance credibility and protect policy holders; Embed governance and risk management framework for the lnsurance Companies; Enhance access to finance (financial inclusion) with business development support and new products; and risk-based capitalization of lnsurance Companies.

The Impact Of Requirements Management Documentation On Software Project Outcomes In Health Care, Sujatha Alla, Pilar Pazos, Rolando Delaguila

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Despite considerable time and resources spent on the initiation phase of software projects, discrepancies often exist between formal project documentation, customer requirements, and final project specifications. Such discrepancies in the requirements management process can have a very negative impact on final project outcomes. The Business Requirements Document (BRD) constitutes the formal software requirements documentation, which typically includes stakeholders’ needs and expectations and project scope while providing a clear project roadmap and project plan. According to IEEE standards, a BRD should be a structured document that includes specific elements such as functional and technical requirements while incorporating certain traits such as …

Nuclear Power: Black Sky Liability Or Black Sky Asset?, Sherrell R. Greene

International Journal of Nuclear Security

Ready access to abundant electricity is a key enabler of modern life. During the past decade the vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure sectors in the U.S. to a variety of natural hazards and man-made threats has become increasingly apparent. The electrical infrastructure (the “Grid”) is the foundation for all other critical civil infrastructures upon which our society depends. Therefore, protection of the Grid is an energy security, homeland security, and national security issue of highest importance. Geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) induced by solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs), electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attacks, and cyber attacks are three events having the potential to plunge …

A Traders Guide To The Predictive Universe- A Model For Predicting Oil Price Targets And Trading On Them, Jimmie Harold Lenz

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

At heart every trader loves volatility; this is where return on investment comes from, this is what drives the proverbial “positive alpha.” As a trader, understanding the probabilities related to the volatility of prices is key, however if you could also predict future prices with reliability the world would be your oyster. To this end, I have achieved three goals with this dissertation, to develop a model to predict future short term prices (direction and magnitude), to effectively test this by generating consistent profits utilizing a trading model developed for this purpose, and to write a paper that anyone with …

Qualitative Collective Case Study Of Targeted Violence Preparedness At Institutions Of Higher Education, Tim Gunter

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

An increase in targeted violence incidents (TVIs), primarily active shooter events, at institutions of higher education (IHEs) has exposed gaps in campus security plan preparation and exercises. The purpose of this qualitative collective case study was to discover barriers to and best practices of universities and colleges conducting security preparedness activities for TVIs. The theory that guided this study was vested interest theory which predicts how attitudes will influence behavior in a commitment to preparedness fundamentals. The setting for this study was two institutions of higher education along the East Coast of the United States. Data collection techniques included site …

Towards A Development Of A Mobile Application Security Invasiveness Index, Sam Espana

KSU Proceedings on Cybersecurity Education, Research and Practice

The economic impact of Mobile IP, the standard that allows IP sessions to be maintained even when switching between different cellular towers or networks, has been staggering in terms of both scale and acceleration (Doherty, 2016). As voice communications transition to all-digital, all-IP networks such as 4G, there will be an increase in risk due to vulnerabilities, malware, and hacks that exist for PC-based systems and applications (Harwood, 2011). According to Gostev (2006), in June, 2004, a well-known Spanish virus collector known as VirusBuster, emailed the first known mobile phone virus to Kaspersky Lab, Moscow. Targeting the Symbian OS, the …

Financial Performance In Upstream, Downstream, And Integrated Oil Companies In Response To Oil Price Volatility, Jonathan P. Garcia

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper investigates the relation between crude oil price volatility and stock returns among oil companies using a three-part methodology, by using the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as oil price benchmark. I asses the various indicators that set signals for oil price volatility and the interpretation of each (PMI, S&P500, DJIA, and World Crude Oil Output). This research also focuses on the relation between different types of companies in the oil industry (integrated, upstream, and downstream) and how each type of company will be assessed in a particular way to predict abnormal returns, based on market data and statistical analyses …

Modeling Supply Chain Resiliency, Jeff A. Hazel

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) is a Department of Defense (DoD) program focusing on the effective and efficient design and development of complex engineered systems throughout their life cycle. There is a growing literature with qualitative definitions of resilience and quantitative models for systems with one performance measure. This paper uses a quantitative resilience framework (the Framework for ERS) that includes system design options, reliability, threats, vulnerabilities, responses, and consequences assessed in multiple system performance measures. The framework assists in establishing a model for any system to evaluate resiliency. This paper applies this framework using Multiple Objective Decision Analysis (MODA) to …

Risk Management In A Vuca Environment: Some Key Considerations, Foo S.L., Nam Sang Cheng, Nam Sang Cheng

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Whatis VUCA? Why is it relevant to accountants, the C-suites and Board ofDirectors? Companies are in the business of taking risks for rewards. Situatedbetween the companies are in the business of taking risks for rewards. Situatedbetween the companies and the rewards are risks. Critical concepts in thisprocess are volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA), a trendymanagerial acronym that conflates the reality of the business environment and the challenges ofrisk management.