Risk Analysis Commons^™

Self-Learning Algorithms For Intrusion Detection And Prevention Systems (Idps), Juan E. Nunez, Roger W. Tchegui Donfack, Rohit Rohit, Hayley Horn

SMU Data Science Review

Today, there is an increased risk to data privacy and information security due to cyberattacks that compromise data reliability and accessibility. New machine learning models are needed to detect and prevent these cyberattacks. One application of these models is cybersecurity threat detection and prevention systems that can create a baseline of a network's traffic patterns to detect anomalies without needing pre-labeled data; thus, enabling the identification of abnormal network events as threats. This research explored algorithms that can help automate anomaly detection on an enterprise network using Canadian Institute for Cybersecurity data. This study demonstrates that Neural Networks with Bayesian …

Application Of Big Data Technology, Text Classification, And Azure Machine Learning For Financial Risk Management Using Data Science Methodology, Oluwaseyi A. Ijogun

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

Data science plays a crucial role in enabling organizations to optimize data-driven opportunities within financial risk management. It involves identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks, ultimately safeguarding investments, reducing uncertainty, ensuring regulatory compliance, enhancing decision-making, and fostering long-term sustainability. This thesis explores three facets of Data Science projects: enhancing customer understanding, fraud prevention, and predictive analysis, with the goal of improving existing tools and enabling more informed decision-making. The first project examined leveraged big data technologies, such as Hadoop and Spark, to enhance financial risk management by accurately predicting loan defaulters and their repayment likelihood. In the second project, we investigated …

Component Maintenance Strategies And Risk Analysis For Random Shock Effects Considering Maintenance Costs, Chao Zhang, Yadong Zhang, Hongyan Dui, Shaoping Wang, Mileta Tomovic

Engineering Technology Faculty Publications

Maintenance can improve a system’s reliability in a long operation period or when a component has failed. The reliability modeling method that uses the stochastic process degradation model to describe the system degradation process has been widely used. However, the existing reliability models established using stochastic processes only consider the internal degradation process, and do not fully consider the impact of external random shocks on their reliability modeling. Furthermore, the existing theory of importance does not consider the actual factors of maintenance cost. In this paper, based on the reliability modeling of random processes, the degradation rate under the influence …

Corporate Governance And Risk-Taking: A Statistical Approach, Steven L. Schwarcz

Faculty Scholarship

Because prudent corporate governance often requires managers to take risks based on statistically expected outcomes, corporate failures that have a small but finite chance of occurring cannot always be prevented. This Article makes three related claims about risk-taking in corporate governance.

This Article’s first claim is that managers should not automatically be presumed to be at fault for corporate failures that result from risk-taking decisions based on statistical methodologies that reasonably justify the decisions ex ante. Conceptually, the business judgment rule should protect corporate managers for engaging in a reasonable decision-making process, including one that is statistically based. Jurisdictionally, however, …

Towards Structured Planning And Learning At The State Fisheries Agency Scale, Caleb A. Aldridge

Theses and Dissertations

Inland recreational fisheries has grown philosophically and scientifically to consider economic and sociopolitical aspects (non-biological) in addition to the biological. However, integrating biological and non-biological aspects of inland fisheries has been challenging. Thus, an opportunity exists to develop approaches and tools which operationalize planning and decision-making processes which include biological and non-biological aspects of a fishery. This dissertation expands the idea that a core set of goals and objectives is shared among and within inland fisheries agencies; that many routine operations of inland fisheries managers can be regimented or standardized; and the novel concept that current information and operations can …

Full Disclosure: Model Uncertainty In Adjusting For Confounders, Dieudonne Dusenge

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This study examines the role of knowledge about underlying causal relationships in classifying controls in order to mitigate omitted- and included-variable biases. Using simulations and accounting examples, the study shows that the researcher may not distinguish good and bad controls because the underlying causal relationships are unobservable, and remedying strategies (such as the relative timing of measurement) may not remove the uncertainty in the classification. Because of the uncertainty about which controls to use, two or more models will be credible as will the distinct estimates derived from them. Next, the study shows that the current standard practice of singling …

Comparing Actively Managed Mutual Fund Categories To Index Funds Using Linear Regression Forecasting And Portfolio Optimization, Luke Weiner

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

The global investment industry offers a wide variety of investment products especially for individual investors. One such product, index funds, which are younger than actively managed mutual funds, have typically outperformed managed funds. Despite this phenomenon, investors have displayed a tendency to continue investing in actively managed funds. Although only a small percentage of actively managed funds outperform index funds, the costs of actively managed funds are significantly higher. Also, managed fund performances are most often determined by their fund category such as growth or real estate. I wanted to answer the following question for individual investors: can we …

Understanding Logistics Airmen’S Risk Information Seeking And Processing During The Covid-19 Pandemic: The Role Of Organizational Meetings In An Extended Prism Framework, Christopher T. Price

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this survey-based research was to understand how organizational workplace meetings surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic impacted logistics Airmen across the United States Air Force and subsequently played a role into their risk seeking behavior on social media. Specifically, this research tested an expanded Planned Information Risk Seeking Model with organizational meetings as an antecedent to determine if current meetings influenced an Airman's perceived behavioral control, attitude toward seeking, subjective norms, knowledge sufficiency an intentions to seek information regarding COVID-19.

The Effects Of Antecedents And Mediating Factors On Cybersecurity Protection Behavior, Ling Li, Li Xu, Wu He

Information Technology & Decision Sciences Faculty Publications

This paper identifies opportunities for potential theoretical and practical improvements in employees' awareness of cybersecurity and their motivational behavior to protect themselves and their organizations from cyberattacks using the protection motivation theory. In addition, it contributes to the literature by examining additional variables and mediators besides the core constructs of the Protection Motivation Model (PMT). This article uses empirical data and structural equation modeling to test the antecedents and mediators of employees' cybersecurity motivational behavior. The study offers theoretical and pragmatic guidance for cybersecurity programs. First, the model developed in this study can partially explain how people may change their …

Development Of A Framework To Support Informed Shipbuilding Based On Supply Chain Disruptions, Katherine Smith, Rafael Diaz, Yuzhong Shen

VMASC Publications

In addition to stresses induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chains worldwide have been growing more complex while facing a continuous onslaught of disruptions. This paper presents an analysis and extension of a graph based model for modeling and simulating the effects of such disruptions. The graph based model combines a Bayesian network approach for simulating risks with a network dependency analysis approach for simulating the propagation of disruptions through the network over time. The initial analysis provides evidence supporting extension to for using a multi-layered approach allowing for the inclusion of cyclic features in supply chain models. Initial results …

A Human Factors Study Of Risk Management Of Complex Agile Scrum Projects In Large Enterprises, Ravi Kalluri

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Agile Project Management methods have gained phenomenal success in the IT software world in managing projects of high complexity and uncertainty. However, Agile projects come with their unique set of risks. This paper seeks to explore the risks posed by human factors to complex Agile Scrum projects in large enterprises. Project Risk Management is crucial in determining the future performance of a complex project. Increasing project complexity makes it more and more difficult to anticipate potential events that could affect the project and to make effective decisions to reduce project risk exposure. This is even more true for Agile projects …

Transdisciplinarity In Experience Design: A Global Survey Of Higher Ed Programs In Exd/Xd, Yvonne Houy

Creative Collaborations

In our age of ubiquitous devices and digital media it is the perceived value of the end-to-end experience that brings people to a place. Designing inspiring and emotionally engaging end-to-end experiences requires experts in a wide range of disciplines committed to an interdisciplinary collaboration that can arrive at transdisciplinary design - the sum becomes greater than its parts.

Civil engineering, hospitality, business, psychology, digital User Experience (UX) design, and experience data analysis need to be seamless integrated with the fine and performing arts and design fields:

• Architecture, interior, landscape and sound design actively engage the senses.

• Graphic and fine arts …

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Integration Of Blockchain Technology Into Automobiles To Prevent And Study The Causes Of Accidents, John Kim

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Automobile collisions occur daily. We now live in an information-driven world, one where technology is quickly evolving. Blockchain technology can change the automotive industry, the safety of the motoring public and its surrounding environment by incorporating this vast array of information. It can place safety and efficiency at the forefront to pedestrians, public establishments, and provide public agencies with pertinent information securely and efficiently. Other industries where Blockchain technology has been effective in are as follows: supply chain management, logistics, and banking. This paper reviews some statistical information regarding automobile collisions, Blockchain technology, Smart Contracts, Smart Cities; assesses the feasibility …

The Air Littoral: Another Look, Maximilian K. Bremer, Kelly A. Grieco

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Assessing threats to the air littoral, the airspace between ground forces and high-end fighters and bombers, requires a paradigm change in American military thinking about verticality. This article explores the consequences of domain convergence, specifically for the Army and Air Force’s different concepts of control. It will assist US military and policy practitioners in conceptualizing the air littoral and in thinking more vertically about the air and land domains and the challenges of domain convergence.

Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (Cmmc) Compliance For Dod Contractors, Sierra Burnett

Cybersecurity Undergraduate Research Showcase

The DoD is currently taking a supply-chain risk management strategy to foster cybersecurity. This unique strategy is often referred to as CMMC which stands for “Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification”. The approach requires that all the 300,000 DoD contractors acquire third-party authentication that may attain the requirements for the CMMC maturity level suitable to the work they desire to do for the DoD. CMMC typically examines the organization's capability to safeguard Federal Contract Information as well as CUI. It integrates various cybersecurity standards already in place and plots the best practices alongside processes to five maturity levels that range from the …

The Battalion Commander Effect, Everett Spain, Gautam Mukunda, Archie Bates

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Statistical evidence suggests Army battalion commanders are significant determinants of the retention of their lieutenants—especially high-potential lieutenants. Further, this so-called Battalion Commander Effect should be included in brigadier general promotion board assessments and used to inform officer professional military education curricula.

Hope Versus Reality: The Efficacy Of Using Us Military Aid To Improve Human Rights In Egypt, Gregory L. Aftandilian

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Using US military aid as a lever to achieve human rights reforms has proven only marginally effective. This article examines the approaches employed by the Obama and Trump administrations to US military aid to Egypt and proposes practical steps that can be taken by policymakers and the military personnel on the ground to advance US human rights values.

The Evolution Of Hybrid Warfare: Implications For Strategy And The Military Profession, Ilmari Käihkö

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The concept of hybrid war has evolved from operational-level use of military means and methods in war toward strategic-level use of nonmilitary means in a gray zone below the threshold of war. This article considers this evolution and its implications for strategy and the military profession by contrasting past and current use of the hybrid war concept and raising critical questions for policy and military practitioners.

Book Reviews, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

Great (Soft) Power Competition: Us And Chinese Efforts In Global Health Engagement, Michael W. Wissemann

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Global health engagement, an underutilized strategy rooted in the strengths of soft power persuasion, can lead to more military-to-military cooperation training, help establish relationships that can be relied on when crises develop, stabilize fragile states, and deny violent extremist organizations space for recruiting and operations. Examining Chinese efforts worldwide to curry favor and influence and the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, this article shows health as a medium is a very compelling and advantageous whole-of-government approach to national security policy concerns.

Samuel Huntington, Professionalism, And Self-Policing In The Us Army Officer Corps, Brian Mcallister Linn

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Drawing on Samuel P. Huntington’s three phases of self-regulation used to determine if an occupation qualifies as a profession, this article focuses on the third phase of policing and removing those who fail to uphold the standards set forth in the first two phases. It reviews how the US Army implemented this phase following the Civil War through the post–Vietnam War years and the implications for the officer corps.

Modeling And Solving The Outsourcing Risk Management Problem In Multi-Echelon Supply Chains, Arian A. Nahangi

Master's Theses

Worldwide globalization has made supply chains more vulnerable to risk factors, increasing the associated costs of outsourcing goods. Outsourcing is highly beneficial for any company that values building upon its core competencies, but the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises have exposed significant vulnerabilities within supply chains. These disruptions forced a shift in the production of goods from outsourcing to domestic methods.

This paper considers a multi-echelon supply chain model with global and domestic raw material suppliers, manufacturing plants, warehouses, and markets. All levels within the supply chain network are evaluated from a holistic perspective, calculating a total …

Prioritizing Facilities Linked To Corporate Strategic Objectives Using A Fuzzy Model, Devin Depalmer, Steven J. Schuldt, Justin D. Delorit

Faculty Publications

Excerpt: Limited facilities operating and modernization budgets require organizations to carefully identify, prioritize and authorize projects to ensure allocated resources align with strategic objectives. Traditional facility prioritization methods using risk matrices can be improved to increase granularity in categorization and avoid mathematical error or human cognitive biases. These limitations restrict the utility of prioritizations and if erroneously used to select projects for funding, they can lead to wasted resources. This paper aims to propose a novel facility prioritization methodology that corrects these assessment design and implementation issues.

Stock Markets Performance During A Pandemic: How Contagious Is Covid-19?, Yara Abushahba

Theses and Dissertations

Background and Motivation: The coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic, the subsequent policies and lockdowns have unarguably led to an unprecedented fluid circumstance worldwide. The panic and fluctuations in the stock markets were unparalleled. It is inarguable that real-time availability of news and social media platforms like Twitter played a vital role in driving the investors’ sentiment during such global shock.

Purpose:The purpose of this thesis is to study how the investor sentiment in relation to COVID-19 pandemic influenced stock markets globally and how stock markets globally are integrated and contagious. We analyze COVID-19 sentiment through the Twitter posts and investigate its …

Diversifying Nuclear Technology: A Technical Analysis On Small Modular Reactors And Its Impact On Nuclear Energy Policy, Carolina Lugo Mejia, Marcos Lugo

Helm's School of Government Conference - 2021-2024

The energy policy debate in the United States has revolved around the diversification of energy sources while promoting advantageous economic profits. One drive for this has been the discussion of anthropogenic, environmental endangerment concerns (Vlassopoulous 2011, 104). However, despite the environmental concerns, the U.S. has for some time only relied on one type of energy source—fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are categorized as natural gas, coal, petroleum, and other gases responsible (U.S. Energy Administration 2019). Natural gas is responsible for 38.4%, coal for 23.4%, petroleum for 0.4%, and other gases for 0.3% of the U.S.’s electrical generation (U.S. Energy Administration 2019). …

Cybersecurity Risk Assessment Using Graph Theoretical Anomaly Detection And Machine Learning, Goksel Kucukkaya

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The cyber domain is a great business enabler providing many types of enterprises new opportunities such as scaling up services, obtaining customer insights, identifying end-user profiles, sharing data, and expanding to new communities. However, the cyber domain also comes with its own set of risks. Cybersecurity risk assessment helps enterprises explore these new opportunities and, at the same time, proportionately manage the risks by establishing cyber situational awareness and identifying potential consequences. Anomaly detection is a mechanism to enable situational awareness in the cyber domain. However, anomaly detection also requires one of the most extensive sets of data and features …

Risk Management Decision Making For Security And Trust In Hardware Supply Chains, Zachary A. Collier, Thomas L. Polmateer, James H. Lambert

CESUN Conference

Modern cyber-physical systems are enabled by electronic hardware and embedded systems. The security of these sub-components is a concern during the design and operational phases of cyber-physical system life cycles. Compromised electronics can result in mission-critical failures, unauthorized access, and other severe consequences. As systems become more complex and feature greater connectivity, system owners must make decisions regarding how to mitigate risks and ensure resilience and trust. This paper provides an overview of research efforts related to assessing and managing risks, resilience, and trust with an emphasis on electronic hardware and embedded systems. The research takes a decision-oriented perspective, drawing …

The Effects Of Customer Segmentation, Borrowers' Behaviours And Analytical Methods On The Performance Of Credit Scoring Models In The Agribusiness Sector, Daniela Lazo, Raffaella Calabrese, Cristian Bravo Roman

Statistical and Actuarial Sciences Publications

The main aim of this study is to analyse the joint effects of customer segmentation, borrowers' characteristics and modelling techniques on the classification accuracy of a scoring model for agribusinesses. To this end, we used data provided by a Chilean company on 161,163 loans from January 2007 to December 2013. We considered random forest, neural network and logistic regression models as analytical methods. Regarding the borrowers' profiles, we examined the effects of socio-demographic, repayment-behaviour, agribusiness-specific and credit-related variables. We also segmented the customers as individuals, SMEs and large holdings. As the segments show different risk behaviours, we obtained a better …

Developing An Artificial Intelligence Framework To Assess Shipbuilding And Repair Sub-Tier Supply Chains Risk, Rafael Diaz, Katherine Smith, Beatriz Acero, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano

VMASC Publications

The defense shipbuilding and repair industry is a labor-intensive sector that can be characterized by low-product volumes and high investments in which a large number of shared resources, technology, suppliers, and processes asynchronously converge into large construction projects. It is mainly organized by the execution of a complex combination of sequential and overlapping stages. While entities engaged in this large-scale endeavor are often knowledgeable about their first-tier suppliers, they usually do not have insight into the lower tiers suppliers. A sizable part of any supply chain disruption is attributable to instabilities in sub-tier suppliers. This research note conceptually delineates a …

Risk Perception Affacting The Performance Of Shipping Company, Yubing Wang

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.