Risk Analysis Commons^™

A Simulation Model For Decision Support In Business Continuity Planning, Marissa Anne Mosunich

Master's Theses

Enterprises with a global supply network are at risk of lost revenue as a result of disruptive disasters at supplier locations. Various strategies exist for addressing this risk, and a variety of types of research has been done regarding the identification, assessment and response to the risk of disruption in a supply chain network.

This thesis establishes a decision model to support Business Continuity Planning at the first-tier supplier level. The decision model incorporates discrete-event simulation of supply chain networks (through Simio software), Monte Carlo simulation, and risk index optimization. After modeling disruption vulnerability in a supply chain network, costs …

Life-Cycle Analysis Of A Cement Manufacturing Plant Co-Firing Hazardous Waste In The Usa, Stephen P. Holt

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this work was to determine the overall environmental impacts associated with the co-firing hazardous waste by burning in a cement kiln to replace the use of coal in the cement manufacturing process. This environmental assessment was conducted using LCA methodology. Understanding the environmental impacts associated with burning hazardous waste in a cement factory could help shape national environmental policy, regulations and the need for site specific human health risk assessments in the environmental regulatory permitting processes. Accordingly, the primary objective of this study was to evaluate the environmental impacts from the hazardous waste burning for energy recovery …

Study On Risks And Measures For Shipping Companies In The Implementation Of Bwm Convention, Jing He

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Customer Complaint Management Systems (Ccms) In A Food Processing Industry, Maggie A. Macleish

Senior Honors Projects, 2010-2019

Abstract

The food processing industry must meet customers’ highest quality expectations at the lowest cost. I partnered with Nestlé’s pizza facility in Little Chute, WI, to improve the current customer complaint approach of the quality department, which aimed to improve product quality. To improve the total quality of the system, this project established a defensive method of addressing customer complaints. Some strategies used to improve the current Customer Complaint Management System (CCMS) include Quality Functional Deployment (QFD), fuzzy logic, Kano’s methods, Voice of the customer (VOC) and Go-See-Think-Do (GSTD). These strategies are all related, but have not previously been used …

A Simulation-Based Approach To Risk Assessment And Mitigation In Supply Chain Networks, Mamadou Seck, Ghaith Rabadi, Christian Koestler

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

We present in this paper a simulation-based approach to evaluate the risk associated with supply chain disruptions caused by failures in some supply chains nodes and measure the impact of such disruptions on supply chain key performance measures (KPIs) of interest. The proposed framework enables analysts and managers to repeatedly assess the risk to their supply chains based on various simulated scenarios and identify the most critical nodes whose disruption will have the highest impact on the KPIs of interest. As a result, companies can focus on the most critical supply chain assets and develop targeted mitigation plans that minimize …

Can Strategic Risk Management Contribute To Enterprise Risk Management? A Strategic Management Perspective, Phil Bromiley, Devaki Rau, Michael K. Mcshane

Finance Faculty Publications

Within the discipline of enterprise risk management (ERM), strategic risk management (SRM) has become a subject of increasing interest to practitioners and academics. To our knowledge, the term “strategic risk management” first appeared in the management literature in 1985 and 1986 (Jammine, 1985; Figenbaum & Thomas, 1986) and in the academic finance literature in 1990 (Rawls and Smithson, 1990), although early usage of the term did not clearly relate to later conceptions. The phrase has been in use even longer than ERM (Bromiley, McShane, Nair, and Rustambekov, 2014). Even with this longevity, the meaning of the term remains unclear, with …

Safety Culture Monitoring: A Management Approach For Assessing Nuclear Safety Culture Health Performance Utilizing Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis, James Harold Warren Jr.

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Nuclear power plants are among the most technologically complex of all energy facilities. This complexity reflects the precision needed in design, maintenance and operations to harness the energy of the atom safely, reliably and economically. Nuclear energy thus requires consistent, high levels of organizational performance by the highly skilled professionals who operate and maintain nuclear power plants (Nuclear Energy Institute [NEI], 2014, p. 1).

A key element for achieving consistent, high levels of performance in a nuclear organization is its safety culture. Nuclear safety culture is for an organization what character and personality is for an individual: a feature that …

Bridge And Ship Collision Risk Assessment And Safety Management Countermeasures In Shanghai Port Waters, Jianlei Yin

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Research On Diversification Strategies Of Shipping Company Groups, Sheng Pan

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

An Analysis Of Safety Culture & Safety Training: Comparing The Impact Of Union, Non-Union, And Right To Work Construction Venues, Harry Miller Csp, Tara Hill, Kris Mason, John S. Gaal Edd

Online Journal for Workforce Education and Development

The construction industry is one of the most dangerous sectors of the US economy. As such, the safety attitudes and climate within small (residential) contracting firms may play a role in providing a safe culture and working environment. The intent of this practitioner-based research study is to compare and determine if there is a difference in safety practices—based on documented field inspections and their related original number of violations observed by OSHA—between union residential carpentry contractors in the St. Louis area and:

1) non-union residential carpentry contractors in the St. Louis area;

2) non-union residential carpentry contractors across Missouri; and …

Issue Brief: Saving By Mitigating, University Of Louisville, New England Environmental Finance Center

Sustainable Communities Capacity Building

Natural disasters can cause loss of life, inflict damage to buildings and infrastructure, and have devastating consequences for a community’s economic, social, and environmental well-being. Hazard mitigation means reducing damages from disasters.

Local governments have the responsibility to protect the health, safety, and welfare of their citizens. Proactive mitigation policies and actions help reduce risk and create safer, more disaster-resilient communities. Mitigation is an investment in your community’s future safety, equity, and sustainability.

Capturing Creative Program Management Best Practices, Brandon Keller, Joseph R. Wirthlin

Faculty Publications

This research attempted to capture the creative aspects of government program management in three specific areas: efficiently navigating oversight, capturing the intent of regulations, and developing innovative risk management practices. Respected acquisition leaders with diverse backgrounds and experiences were interviewed with ranks ranging from 0-6 to 0-8 and GS-15 to SES. Several contractor interviews were conducted for specific purposes. The data were iteratively coded and analyzed using ATLAS.ti. The results were categorized into four themes, each with three sub-elements. Differences between respondents with program director experience and those with rapid acquisition experience are discussed. A survey was then distributed to …

Investigation Into Risk And Uncertainty: Identifying Coefficient Of Variation Benchmarks For Air Force Acat I Programs, Shaun T. Carney

Theses and Dissertations

Previous DoD cost growth studies found typical cost growth in defense acquisitions is around forty-six to sixty percent of the original estimate. The research in this study addresses the identification of risk and uncertainty benchmarks by providing decision makers with coefficient of variation ranges for cost estimates. The study recommends coefficient of variation (CV) ranges for Air Force Acquisition programs, determines if different CV ranges should be used based on platform type, and determines if CV decreases over the course of the program's acquisition lifecycle. The analysis found that the Air Force should enhance the CV review process to ensure …

Experiments To Measure The Effects Of Timber Harvesting Equipment On Surface Lithic Scatters, Douglas J. Baughman

All Master's Theses

The importance of cultural resource preservation cannot be overstated; however local economies are at least as important. Due to conservative archaeological site protection practices in Region 5 of the United States Forest Service, the economy of Northeastern California is being adversely affected. In an attempt to help the Forest Service make more informed management decisions and improve the Northeastern California economy, I undertook experiments on the effects of timber harvesting on lithic scatters on Modoc National Forest. The experiments involved placement of 225 glass tiles (proxy lithics) in each of three plots subject to vehicle traffic and log dragging by …

Risk Measurement Of Coal Freight Rates Based On Value-At-Risk, Zhenxing Pu

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Agent Based Modeling And Simulation Framework For Supply Chain Risk Management, Tiffany J. Harper

Theses and Dissertations

This research develops a flexible agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) framework for supply chain risk management with significant enhancements to standard ABMS methods and supply chain risk modeling. Our framework starts with the use of software agents to gather and process input data for use in our simulation model. For our simulation model, we extend an existing mathematical framework for discrete event simulation (DES) to ABMS and then implement the concepts of variable resolution modeling from the DES domain to ABMS and provide further guidelines for aggregation and disaggregation of supply chain models. Existing supply chain risk management research focuses …

Identification And Implementation Of Patterns Towards A Model Of Environmental Sustainability, S. Jimmy Gandhi, Santiago Perez, Danial Rushton, Robert Cloutier, Ipek Bozkurt, C. Ariel Pinto

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Much like the Quality Revolution did in the 1980's, corporate sustainability has the potential to drive significant changes in the processes and structure of various organizations in the coming decade. With a rapidly growing global population and an ever increasing global demand for resources (Population-Resource-Center, 2012). Sustainability has emerged as one of the primary challenges that organizations will have to deal with in the 21st century. An increasing realization among business executives that profitability by itself is not enough as a measure of success is also driving the increased adoption of sustainable practices in the corporate world (Lowitt and Grimsley, …

Optimal Investment Under Operational Flexibility, Risk Aversion, And Uncertainty, Michail Chronopoulos, Bert De Reyck, Afzal Siddiqui

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Traditional real options analysis addresses the problem of investment under uncertainty assuming a risk-neutral decision maker and complete markets. In reality, however, decision makers are often risk averse and markets are incomplete. We confirm that risk aversion lowers the probability of investment and demonstrate how this effect can be mitigated by incorporating operational flexibility in the form of embedded suspension and resumption options. Although such options facilitate investment, we find that the likelihood of investing is still lower compared to the risk-neutral case. Risk aversion also increases the likelihood that the project will be abandoned, although this effect is less …

Managing Risk In A Failing It Project: A Social Constructionist View, Wee-Kiat Lim, Siew Kien Sia, Adrian Yeow

CCX Research

Why do IT projects continue to stumble, despite the proliferation of risk management methodologies and a growing body of knowledge on project risk assessment and mitigation? In this paper, we propose an alternative theoretical perspective that views project risk as a social construction process shaped by the risk accounts of social groups and actors within an implementation context. Risk management is embedded in the social processes where risks are negotiated and contested, with some risk accounts amplified and some attenuated. Through the analysis of a large IT implementation in an Asian logistics firm and its trajectory of successive crises, we …

A Financial Impact Assessment Of Ld 1725: Stream Crossings Presentation, New England Environmental Finance Center

Economics and Finance

This report looks at the potential financial impact of LD 1725 on the estimated 30,000 stream crossings in the State of Maine that would be affected by the law. Our research for this report included the analysis of nearly 2000 stream crossings and the data collection necessary for the development of extensive stream crossing replacement cost models. We found that the 1.2 bankfull requirements in LD 1725 would result in a 75% ‐ 250% increase in structure widths for stream crossing projects across the state. An upsize of this magnitude would increase the cost of replacing stream crossings statewide by …

Delayed-Bang Approach Towards More Sustainable Critical Infrastructure Risk Management, C. Ariel Pinto, Michael K. Mcshane, Abhishek S. Pathak

Finance Faculty Publications

This article describes the Delayed Bang Approach for determining the value of risk management alternatives in critical infrastructure security. The discussion includes (1) the need for sustainable risk management (2) the importance of time valuation in evaluating competing loss prevention and loss reduction alternatives, (3) the convergence of deterministic engineering economics, survivability analysis, and probabilistic analysis, and (4) hypothetical examples of the Delayed-Bang Approach and significance towards more sustainable risk management.

Construction Cost Models, Barry Dikeman

Economics and Finance

The following are a series of cost estimate models similar in format to a typical engineer’s estimate that were developed in support of our financial impact assessment report for LD 1725. The models us current material costs, labor costs, and equipment costs for the region to provide a comparative cost analysis of seven culvert replacement scenarios. The models provide information about what the cost impact of LD 1725 would be for typical culvert replacements in Maine. However, due to the inherent restrictions of the cost modeling framework we were not able to include the abundance of variables that would be …

Utilizing Knowledge Transfer To Promote Management Of Countervailing Risks In Value Stream Analysis, Jeffery A. Temple

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Organizations are frequently faced with the challenges of modifying and streamlining their processes by utilizing the latest process improvement techniques such as Lean Thinking. They use these techniques to allow them to better perform their organizational purposes through the elimination of waste and non-value added steps. Personnel performing these modifications need to account for potential outcomes and risks when streamlining processes. An association of knowledge transfer and experience to the identification and handling of these countervailing or alternative risks when performing Lean Thinking value stream analysis is investigated. The elements of risk management, Lean Thinking and knowledge transfer are described. …

Risk And System-Of-Systems: Toward A Unified Concept, C. Ariel Pinto, Michael K. Mcshane, Rani Kady

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The scope of this paper is the survey of both fundamental and most recent publications in system-of-systems, business and insurance, as well as risk analysis, modeling, and management for the purpose of better describing the concept of risk in recognition of emergence and complexity which characterizes many systems within the concern of engineering and business managers. The ultimate goal is to provide engineering and business managers the necessary perspective on the concept of risk and in its management for the next generation of sustainable systems - including various descriptions of risk and discussion of the relevance of properties of system-of-systems …

An Evaluation Of Risk Management Courses Offered In Engineering Management Programs, S. Jimmy Gandhi, C. Ariel Pinto

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

For this paper, the authors have surveyed a total of 22 engineering management (EM) programs in the United States (both accredited and non-accredited). The purpose of this study was to analyze the offering of risk management courses as part of the engineering management curriculum. The findings showed that the majority of the programs did not offer a single dedicated course on risk management and merely covered the topic as part of other courses such as project management. The authors have made recommendations that risk management should be included as a required part of the EM curriculum due to the higher …

Development Of A Framework To Evaluate Human Risk Towards Sustainable Risk Management, Ra'ed M. Jaradat, Rani A. Kady, C. Ariel Pinto

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Risk managers are constantly faced with the challenge of making decisions at various levels of their organizations. One of the challenges, which often times is unavoidable, lies in assigning a monetary value to human risks. Such challenge necessitates engineering managers to make educated decisions on the level of risk that the organizations and businesses should accept when it comes to human. The purpose of this study is to suggest a suitable framework that captures this aspect of engineering Risk Management in order to make rational and sustainable decisions about such assessed risk. This will be accomplished by exploring the tools, …

Project And Risk Management: A Systematic Approach, Baqer Alali, C. Ariel Pinto, Andreas Tolk, Rafael Landaeta

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The main purpose of this paper is to discuss three related topics of project management, systems management, and risk management. The issue that would be addressed in this paper is how risks are addressed in project and systems management, and how risks are propagated between projects and systems. A framework is proposed to overcome the problem of risk propagation from project to the systems. It was shown that the proposed framework can be deployed to existing risk management process with reasonable interventions (e.g. process prescribed by PMI). Finally a proof-of-concept application shows potential of the framework for various types of …

Time Valuation Of Risk: A Delayed-Bang Approach, Abhishek Pathak

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The subject of this thesis is the combined use of engineering economics and survival analysis in estimating time-value of risk-related resources. The discussion includes (1) the need for sustainable risk management, (2) the importance of time-valuation of risk related resources in the allocation or selection among competing risk mitigation alternatives, (3) the convergence of deterministic engineering economics, survivability analysis, and probabilistic analysis, and (4) results and examples of application in the context of prevention of risk event or mitigation of its consequences.

The significance of this thesis is in how three topics: engineering economics, survivability analysis, and probability theory can …

Using The World Wide Web To Educate And Inform The Public About Risk And Agricultural Biotechnology, Douglas A. Golick, Robert D. Peterson, Leon G. Higley

Department of Entomology: Faculty Publications

The University of Nebraska and AgBios, Inc. launched the AgBiosafety website (http://agbiosaftzy.unl.edu) with the purpose of educating the public about agricultural biotechnology risk and safezy issues through science-based content. This article discusses the creation ofthe website, its components, and data gathered from usage statistics and a web-delivered survey. Also included is a discussion of the results ofdata gathered and recommendations for future web-based educational efforts in biotechnology safety and risk assessment.

"G" And "H" Control Charts And Risk Analysis In The Banking Industry, James L. Bossert

All-Inclusive List of Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This research investigates the utilization of a new control chart in the Banking industry to minimize financial risk. There are processes in the banking industry that do not lend themselves to traditional control chart applications. These processes tend to be high volume. High volume meaning over a million transactions a day and a requirement for high levels of accuracy characterize these processes. The research has looked at these processes and applied the "g" control charts to determine if they provide timely feedback to the banking industry. The value of this research will give the banking industry an opportunity to react …