Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

Assimilating Non-Probabilistic Assessments Of The Estimation Of Uncertainty Bias In Expert Judgment Elicitation Using An Evidence Based Approach In High Consequence Conceptual Designs, Colin K. S. Barrows

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

One of the major challenges in conceptual designs of complex systems is the identification of uncertainty embedded in the information due to lack of historic data. This becomes of increased concern especially in high-risk industries. This document reports a developed methodology that allows for the cognitive bias, estimation of uncertainty, to be elucidated to improve the quality of elicited data. It consists of a comprehensive literature review that begins by defining a 'High Consequence Conceptual Engineering Environment' and identifies the high-risk industries in which these environments are found. It proceeds with a discussion that differentiates risk and uncertainty in decision-making …

A Conceptual Framework For Analysis Of System Safety Interoperability Of United States Navy's Combat Systems, Showkat Shanaz Alborzi

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Today's political and military reality requires the optimal use of our legacy systems. The objective is to maximize the effectiveness of our operations by efficient allocation, placement and the use of our forces and war-fighting systems. The synergism drawn from the capabilities of the legacy complex systems enables today's war-fighting needs to be met without substantial increase in cost or resources. This synergism can be realized by the effective integration and interoperation of legacy systems into a larger, more complex system of systems.

However, the independently developed legacy systems in this new tactical environment often have different data types, languages, …

Quantifying Vulnerability To Critical Infrastructure, Barry Charles Ezell

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Military and civilian leaders have the responsibility to protect our Nation's critical infrastructure, communities, and symbols of American power from terrorists, home and abroad, as well as from natural disasters. To this end, assessments are conducted to reduce vulnerability. The literature offers multiple definitions of vulnerability and measurement has not been adequately addressed. Thus, the purpose of this research has been to develop and deploy a systems-based model that quantifies vulnerability to critical infrastructure. This research defines critical infrastructure vulnerability as a measure of the susceptibility of critical infrastructure to threat scenarios. Vulnerability is a function of (1) threat scenario, …

A Systems Methodology For Measuring Operational Organization Effectiveness: A Study Of The Original Equipment Computer Manufacturing Industry, 1948 To 2001, Teddy Steven Cotter

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Optimizing operational organizational effectiveness is the central, although often unstated, goal of engineering management and systems engineering research and applications. Two fundamental problems remain to be addressed in pursuit of this goal. First, despite over fifty years of research in various disciplines, there is still no universally accepted definition of organizational effectiveness. Second, no methodology exists to identify the domains, dimensions, and determinants of operational organizational effectiveness and dynamically model operational organizational effectiveness within a given population.

This research synthesizes a systems engineering methodology for identifying the domains, dimensions, and determinants of and dynamically modeling operational organizational effectiveness for an …

Complex System Contextual Framework (Cscf): A Grounded-Theory Construction For The Articulation Of System Context In Addressing Complex Systems Problems, W. B. Max Crownover

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The complexity of problems facing society continues to grow, and decision-makers and problem-solvers are finding many of today's emerging problems to be beyond their capability to adequately address. There is agreement in the literature that problems of this nature are complex system problems, inextricably linked to some highly complex system of systems. Establishing a clear understanding of the specific complex system context is fundamental to the process of understanding and analyzing complex systems and complex system problems across all of the different systems-based disciplines. While complex system context is widely referred to in systems literature, there is no clear characterization …

Multi-National Project Team Communications And Cultural Influences, Morgan E. Henrie

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This exploratory case study dissertation examined multinational project teams' communication satisfaction as influenced by the project team's cultural attribute of power distance. Utilizing a exploratory case study, semi-guided interview research approach, ordinal scale data and open-ended contextual based question responses was obtained. This data was gathered from United States---Russia and Canada---Angola multi-national, complex, high technology oil transportation project teams. Triangulation data gathering techniques were utilized to obtain empirical data from multiple sources of data and multiple data types. Subsequent data analyses combined descriptive statistical analysis, graphical analysis, cluster analysis, and content analysis techniques to derive a theoretical construct of multi-national …

Application Of Queuing Theory And Procedure Time Estimation In A Local Healthcare System, Galina Tsoy

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

People in the United States pay more for their basic healthcare needs than do people in any other nation in the world. When we consider that the United States is the wealthiest nation in the world, controlling the majority of the world's resources, it seems only reasonable to ask: Why should it be this way?

In an effort to address this problem, this thesis examines two possible methods of improving health care efficiency in hospitals. The thesis is thus in two parts: the first part examines resource allocation in medical units using Queuing Theory, and the second part examines a …

The Relationship Of Project Team Attributes To Project Interim Performance, Vickie S. Parsons

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The factors associated with project success, or failure, have not been conclusively resolved in the project management literature. The purpose of this research was to investigate the relationship of project team attributes and interim project performance using a statistical research design. An abundance of research has focused solely on the importance of technical project components as they relate to cost, schedule, or technical performance. However, research into internal team attributes has been sporadic and, generally, associated with subjective measures of project performance or less than optimal statistical techniques. Prior assessment of project performance has also been concentrated at project completion. …

Development Of A Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support System With Application To The Economic Optimization Of Aircraft Based Weather Data Collection, Ganzague Erol Osman Ozan

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This research is motivated by the economic optimization of the Troposherical Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR), an aircraft-based meteorological data collection system. In the envisioned TAMDAR system, meteorological data collected by the onboard sensors of selected aircraft are transmitted to the ground as aircraft fly their missions. The data is processed by a national center, which disseminates the data to diverse users such as weather forecasters and aviation control centers. Substantial government funding is required for the implementation and operation of this new data acquisition system and data transmission expenditures constitute the largest portion of the costs. To achieve economic …

A Statistical Evaluation Of Risk Priority Numbers In Failure Modes And Effects Analysis Applied To The Prediction Of Complex Systems, Anthony W. Dean

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Complex systems such as military aircraft and naval ships are difficult to cost effectively maintain. Frequently, large-scale maintenance of complex systems (i.e., a naval vessel) is based on the reduction of the system to its base subcomponents and the use of manufacturer-suggested, time-directed, preventative maintenance, which is augmented during the systems lifecycle with predictive maintenance which assesses the system's ability to perform its mission objectives. While preventative maintenance under certain conditions can increase reliability, preventative maintenance systems are often costly, increase down time, and allow for maintenance-induced failures, which may decrease the reliability of the system (Ebeling, 1997). This maintenance …

Calibrating Expert Assessments Of Advanced Aerospace Technology Adoption Impact, Bruce A. Conway

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the development of expert judgment calibration methodology as part of elicitation of the expert judgments to assist in the task of quantifying parameter uncertainty for proposed new aerospace vehicles. From previous work, it has been shown that experts in the field of aerospace systems design and development can provide valuable input into the sizing and conceptual design of future space launch vehicles employing advanced technology. In particular (and of specific interest in this case), assessment of operations and support cost implications of adopting proposed new technology is frequently asked of the experts. Often the input consisting of …

Information System Product Development By Integration Of Kano's Customer Satisfaction Model With Quality Function Deployment, Afife Yesim Sireli

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Product development of complex, innovative information technology related systems presents difficult challenges for technology managers, and new product failures are a significant problem. The main reason for this is insufficient decision-making due to the lack of a customer-oriented product development process in the information system (IS) companies, which is often related to deficiencies in cooperation between R&D and marketing departments. Integrating consumer requirements into the product design phase is an important factor for improving market success. Therefore, a product development decision model is needed for the managers of information system companies to make more accurate decisions about the characteristics of …

Developing A Methodology To Detect Partial Failures For Dynamic Systems, Anwar A. Al-Jowder

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this research is to develop a decision support system that can assist in detecting partial failures in dynamic systems such as Fire Control System Tracking Radar (TR) onboard Naval Ships. Partial failures do not necessarily shut down the system immediately but cause degradation of operational performance. Previous work has shown that experts in the field of failure detection, test point insertion and Built-In-Test Equipment (BITE) can provide useful input in detecting partial failures. Partial failures affect operational system performance and support costs, which can be significant. Often, however, partial failure detection consists of the estimations and opinions …

Aligning Hierarchical Goals In An Organization: The Path From Training To Performance, Jeanette Denise Selby-Lucas

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Training is a multi-billion-dollar industry, and with the advent of the training technology revolution and the possibilities it provides to business and government, as well as to the academic community, it is important to determine if the money invested in training by these communities is providing the expected performance on the part of those who are trained. This can be done by quantitatively evaluating the relationship between training and performance.

This study extends the scholarly literature by developing the concept of organizational alignment through a combination of Human Performance Technology literature and traditional engineering methodologies. Organizational training and performance is …

The Effect Of Model Formulation On The Comparative Performance Of Artificial Neural Networks And Regression, Michael F. Cochrane

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Multiple linear regression techniques have been traditionally used to construct predictive statistical models, relating one or more independent variables (inputs) to a dependent variable (output). Artificial neural networks can also be constructed and trained to learn these complex relationships, and have been shown to perform at least as well as linear regression on the same data sets. Research on the use of neural network models as alternatives to multivariate linear regression has focused predominantly on the effects of sample size, noise, and input vector size on the comparative performance of these two modeling techniques. However, research has also shown that …

Determination Of The Impact Of A Human Capital Decision Cost Model On The Economic Performance Measures Of A Technical Services Company, Jeffery A. Temple

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Human Capital has a major impact on cash flow management decisions in a Technical Services company. Decisions to hire or terminate employees to meet contract requirements affect the company's economic value. The objective of this research is to develop a model that assists management in establishing a starting point in making, as efficiently as possible, those decisions that impact employees' lives. To understand that impact, the operations and economic parameters of a Technical Services company are compared with those of a manufacturing company. This analysis establishes two · essential points for Technical Services organizations; first, that the capital investment decision …

A Systems-Based Methodology For The Construction And Representation Of Organizational Knowledge Systems, Willie James Mcfadden

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to develop and apply a systems-based, analysis methodology which constructs and represents an organization's knowledge system. The research inquiry was guided by four questions: (1) “what is an organizational knowledge system?” (2) “how can it be made explicit?” (3) “does the representation accurately depict the organization's perspective of their unique knowledge system?” and (4) “what results from the deployment of the organizational knowledge system methodology?” The resultant answers to these research questions advanced and established the theoretical conception of an organization's knowledge system through the development of a methodology that fosters the construction and …

Developing A Parametric Cost Model For Operating Costs Of Army Ground Combat Weapon Systems, James O. Winbush Jr.

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to develop a parametric cost model for predicting operating costs of Army ground combat weapon systems. The model is intended to be used during the first two phases of the Army's acquisition process. The research necessary to develop the model was guided by two questions: what weapon system characteristics (such as weight, horsepower, fuel consumption, primary mission, NBC protection, fire control and night fighting capability) impact directly on operating ground combat systems; and what is the form of the parametric model for operating costs for ground combat systems? The study extends the bounds of …

Exploring Participation Processes For Technology Development: Case Studies Of Biotechnology Research And Development Projects In Thailand, Omjai Yuktavetya

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

There is increased awareness in the organizational and management literature that participation can make contributions in technology development. One of the problems in developing biotechnology in Thailand is that only a small portion of publicly funded research and development projects directly result in commercial success. Among the reasons cited (TDRI 1992a) is a lack of collaboration between various stakeholders; therefore, an effective technology policy to support their participation is needed. This research explores current participation processes in biotechnology research and development projects in Thailand in which there were different perspectives among various stakeholders. The quantitative and qualitative methodologies developed here …

Meta-Ethnographic Development Of A Dialogue Methodology Applied To Organization Discourse, Shelley P. Gallup

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

A gap exists between theoretical stances that acknowledge the importance of dialogue as a dynamic within socially constructed structures, and "steersmanship" of those constructs--e.g., directing, intervening or transforming organizations. A "mechanism" which links theory with practice is missing, leaving practitioners with an acknowledgment of dialogue's central position, but without tools to enact this centrality in practice or research. This research constructs a conceptual model of dialogue, derived from the literature. Using this model as a base, the research seeks to generate a dialogue methodology bridging theory and practice with respect to organizational dialogue. The model, methodology, and research results are …

Consortia As Technology Innovation Management Vehicles: Toward A Framework For Success In Venture Based Public-Private Partnerships, Ralph B. Saunders Ii

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to explore the approach by federal/state agencies, university, and private sector consortia to develop and manage commercialization of innovation technologies. The evaluation, support, and management of technologically based consortia has traditionally been held in the private sector. There is a somewhat mature literature guiding innovation management (Utterback 1996; Rosenberg et al. 1994; Quinn 1997, 1992) in the private sector. However, there is an increasing emergence of consortia consisting of universities, industrial/private sector entities, and government agencies joining in collaborative efforts to launch technology based initiatives. These consortia are non-traditional and the applicability of traditional …

Study Of Human Factors Variables In Battle Outcome Prediction Models, David Andrew Glovier

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Over time there have been many improvements in models that are used to predict the outcome of battles. Currently there is much supposition and speculation surrounding the use of human performance related factors as additional inputs to battle simulation models to improve their accuracy. However there is no conclusive scientific evidence which shows that these factors do make a significant difference. This study investigates the use of factors that may impact on the human performance directly or indirectly in battle prediction models. These factors consist of traditional human factors and external factors that may influence the human performance. The research …

Evaluation Of Airport Operating Efficiencies Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Scott Andrew Cummings

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Airport congestion represents a serious obstacle to the future growth of the air transportation industry in the United States. Future development of new airports, and expansion of existing ones is required to meet the growing demands in domestic and commercial air travel. Globalization of economies and international travel has placed additional burdens on airports nationwide. This growth is requiring airports to operate at peak efficiencies. Economic growth of surrounding industries is dependent on the airport that services that geographical region. The variations in functions that airports offer, and therefore the differences in operations, do not lend themselves to traditional efficiency …

An Alternative Method For Determining Adjusted Function Points As The Basis For Software Cost Estimating, William Alexander Eldred

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

As software costs become an increasingly higher percentage of total computer system costs, it becomes increasingly more important for software development managers to have the ability to predict development costs with reasonable accuracy early in the software development cycle. Software development cost estimates are based in large measure on software size. Function points are considered by many to be a de facto industry standard as a size metric. The function points technique, unlike lines-of-code, can be applied early in the software development cycle and is language independent. Critics claim that the function point “value adjustment factor,” which purports to capture …

A Proposed Approach To Iso Compliance And Validation For Metrology Laboratories, J. Lyle Bagley

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

International competition among metrology laboratories, as well as their customers, has intensified the incentive to seek either accreditation to ISO Guide 25 or ISO 9000 quality system registration for the laboratory. The debate continues as to which is more beneficial to the laboratory and its customers once the decision is made to pursue one or the other. This study addresses the advantages and limitations of each, and how best to prepare for complying with ISO standards. The literature was reviewed and ISO certification experts were questioned about these issues. The results were combined with new applications of existing operations research …

Minimizing Post-Production Weight Growth In Tanks Using A Decision Analysis Model, Michael F. Cochrane

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Post-production weight growth of tanks is an historic problem for the military. Tanks are difficult to transport because of their weight, and post-production modifications tend to cause this weight to increase over the lifecycle of the tank. In this thesis, a computer model is constructed which uses influence diagrams to model tank weight growth as a probabilistic process. Historical weight data for the MI Abrams tank program is used to derive probabilities for the model. The model is used to predict tank weight growth over both the short and long term with the goal of understanding more about how and …

A Synthesized Methodology For Eliciting Expert Judgment For Addressing Uncertainty In Decision Analysis, Richard W. Monroe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the development, refinement, and demonstration of an expert judgment elicitation methodology. The methodology has been developed by synthesizing the literature across several social science and scientific fields. The foremost consideration in the methodology development has been to incorporate elements that are based on reasonable expectations for the human capabilities of the user, the expert in this case.

Many methodologies exist for eliciting assessments for uncertain events. These are frequently elicited in probability form. This methodology differs by incorporating a qualitative element as a beginning step for the elicitation process. The qualitative assessment is a more reasonable way …

A Sociotechnical Systems Analysis Of The Approval Process For A Complex Public Works Proposal, James C. Pyne

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This research applied sociotechnical systems theory to explore the process used by two elected bodies to decide upon adoption of a complex technical engineering proposal. The research used a modified sociotechnical systems conceptual framework that was developed by Pava (1983) for application to non-traditional work settings. Pava applied the conceptual framework to what he termed non-routine office work which is characterized by non-linear conversion flow, multiple, concurrent conversion processes and vocational separatism (Pava, 1983).

The research was designed as a multiple case study of two town councils each undertaking a decision process to approve or reject a public works proposal …

Development Of A Method For Determining The Relative Manufacturing Complexity Of Advanced Engineering Materials, Shardul Y. Pandya

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The immediate adaptation of newly developed materials--with unique and highly desirable properties--is hampered by several factors, including: (1) high material cost and limited availability, (2) lack of information on them, including prior experience in their design and manufacture, immature manufacturing processes and general uncertainty in their behavior patterns, (3) unique handling issues, such as excessive manual labor, high process temperatures, toxicity, disposal problems, limited working lives, and low damage tolerance

Therefore, in spite of their significant benefits, potential users tend to shy away from the widespread use of new materials, instead preferring conventional and tested materials forms.

This dissertation is …

An Artificial Life Model Of Engineering Attrition Contemplation: Why Do Federally Employed Civilian Engineers Think Of Quitting?, John William Herweg

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The research objective is, using engineer turnover, to develop an Artificial Life (A-Life) model and simulation methodology useful for studying behavioral variables of individuals in an organization.

One consequence of work stress is burnout, and its extreme expression is quitting or turnover. Various models have been used to explain and predict this behavior. Behavior models are useful tools to explore the ability of organizational policies to reduce stress levels and turnover. Advancing the usefulness of models is a goal which assists all research on human behavior. A-Life offers a new and different methodology for this purpose. It provides an ability …