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Articles 5071 - 5100 of 5698
Full-Text Articles in Engineering
Research And Development Project Selection Tools: Probing Wright Laboratory's Project Selection Methods And Decision Criteria Using The Lateral Airfoil Concept, James E. Barger
Theses and Dissertations
This research accomplished three major tasks. First it examined familiarity and usage rates for fifteen published R&D project selection methods in the context of a larger general issue, the Air Force's ability to develop and exploit technology. Wright Laboratory served as the focus for the research effort and displayed a greater tendency to use formal methods in 1993 than was shown in prior research. The laboratory's overall preference for simpler models like Checklist, Scoring, and Sorting led to a recommendation that authors familiar with the other techniques communicate them in engineering and management vernacular. Secondly, the study introduced a technological …
Pollution Prevention Incentives For Major Weapon System Programs, Donna C. Heinz, Dudley C. Wireman
Pollution Prevention Incentives For Major Weapon System Programs, Donna C. Heinz, Dudley C. Wireman
Theses and Dissertations
This research was undertaken to identify positive incentives that would motivate both government personnel and contractors to incorporate pollution prevention into the early design phases of weapon system acquisitions. The adoption and implementation of such incentives would allow the Air Force to reach pollution prevention objectives more efficiently. A literature search revealed little information on the pollution prevention program in the military. In contrast much information was found concerning military cleanup activities. As a result, in-depth personal interviewing was used to measure pollution prevention awareness in Aeronautical Systems Center program offices. Interviews, analysis, and comparisons were made between three groups …
Benchmarking Practices Of Air Cargo Carriers: A Case Study Approach, Mila D. Abalateo, Joni R. Lee
Benchmarking Practices Of Air Cargo Carriers: A Case Study Approach, Mila D. Abalateo, Joni R. Lee
Theses and Dissertations
This research effort used the benchmarking process and a case study methodology to determine what the Air Force can learn from commercial air cargo carriers. A literature search showed that the U.S. air cargo industry leaders are United Parcel Service, Federal Express, Emery Air Freight, Airborne Freight, DHL Airways, and Burlington Air Express. In addition, the 436th Aerial Port Squadron at Dover AFB, Delaware was chosen as the Air Force representative in the benchmarking study. Observations of air cargo operations and interviews with operational managers or applicable experts familiar with air cargo operations were conducted at each carrier's hub and …
Schedule Estimating Relationships For The Engineering And Manufacturing Development Of Bomber, Transport, Tanker And Surveillance Aircraft Systems, D. Scott Boyd, Brian D. Mundt
Schedule Estimating Relationships For The Engineering And Manufacturing Development Of Bomber, Transport, Tanker And Surveillance Aircraft Systems, D. Scott Boyd, Brian D. Mundt
Theses and Dissertations
This study developed parametric schedule estimating relationships (SERs) for the engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) phase for nontactical aircraft systems. The potential value of this nontraditional approach to estimating schedule duration has been established by previous applications to tactical aircraft, air-launched munitions, and office buildings. Prior research suggested acquisition strategy parameters to be significant schedule drivers. For this study, data on EMD milestone dates and potential schedule drivers were collected on 56 bomber, transport, tanker, and surveillance aircraft systems. Several SERs were developed for these systems using linear regression analysis. The EMD phase was divided into subphases based on significant …
Benchmark Production Scheduling Problems For Job Shops With Interactive Constraints, Stewart W. James, Bruno A. Mediate Jr.
Benchmark Production Scheduling Problems For Job Shops With Interactive Constraints, Stewart W. James, Bruno A. Mediate Jr.
Theses and Dissertations
United States Air Force (USAF) depots have expressed interest in utilizing DISASTER production scheduling software to schedule their maintenance operations. DISASTER attempts to increase system throughput by building effective schedules for system, constraint resources. However, when a system contains multiple, interactive constraints, DISASTER builds the constraint schedules one at a time. Since each successive schedule must adhere to timing restrictions imposed by previous constraint schedules, the quality of the schedules produced by DISASTER is dependent upon the sequence in which the constraints are scheduled. This thesis first developed a set of benchmark problems which provide a diversity of scheduling scenarios. …
An Analysis Of The Performance-Risk Trade-Off In Source Selection Decision Making, Richard G. Pierce, Jeffrey E. Wainwright
An Analysis Of The Performance-Risk Trade-Off In Source Selection Decision Making, Richard G. Pierce, Jeffrey E. Wainwright
Theses and Dissertations
Each year the Air Force awards weapon system contracts worth billions of dollars using the source selection process. In the source selection, performance and risk assessments are evaluated to determine the best proposal; the proposal that gives the best overall value. The purpose of this research was to investigate the performance/risk trade-off in the source selection decision making process. The study also examined the effect individual risk propensities and the nature of item being evaluated have on the performance/risk trade-off decisions. Air Force acquisition personnel stationed at Aeronautical Systems Center, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, who had participated in a source selection …
An Investigation Of Alternative Metamodels For The Theater Simulation Of Airbase Resources Model, Alistair G. Dally
An Investigation Of Alternative Metamodels For The Theater Simulation Of Airbase Resources Model, Alistair G. Dally
Theses and Dissertations
This study is an exploratory investigation into the development of metamodels of a particular Theater Simulation of Airbase Resources (TSAR) simulation model. Techniques applicable to the development of metamodels from a simulation using an orthogonal two-level fractional factorial experimental design are discussed. The experimental design is found to limit the metamodel form to polynomial linear least squares regression models, and also to greatly simplify the process of building regression models. Using the simulation results from previous research, alternate metamodels are proposed for both the prediction of sorties generated by the airbase system, as modeled by the simulation; and to assist …
Scheduling A Medium-Sized Manufacturing Shop: A Simulation Study, Daniel J. Mcfeely
Scheduling A Medium-Sized Manufacturing Shop: A Simulation Study, Daniel J. Mcfeely
Theses and Dissertations
This study examined the application of simple-to-use, low cost scheduling methods to the operating environment of a medium-sized manufacturing shop. Computer simulation was used to evaluate eighteen different scheduling algorithms, each the result of the combination of a loading and a sequencing rule; due date setting was not considered since due dates are exogenously set. The loading rules investigated were Minimum Machine Required, Lowest Average WIP, and Lowest Average Aggregate Priority Level. The sequencing rules investigated were Priority, EDD, FIS, SPT, Slack, and Slack Ratio. The scheduling algorithms were evaluated against performance measures of mean tardiness, mean flowtime, mean percentage …
A Refinement Of Risk Analysis Procedures For Trichloroethylene Through The Use Of Monte Carlo Method In Conjunction With Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling, William J. Cronin Iv, Eric J. Oswald
A Refinement Of Risk Analysis Procedures For Trichloroethylene Through The Use Of Monte Carlo Method In Conjunction With Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling, William J. Cronin Iv, Eric J. Oswald
Theses and Dissertations
This study refines risk analysis procedures for trichloroethylene (TCE) using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model in conjunction with the Monte Carlo method. The Monte Carlo method is used to generate random sets of model parameters, based on the mean, variance, and distribution types. The procedure generates a range of exposure values for human excess lifetime cancer risk of lxl0 (exp-6), based on the upper and lower bounds and the mean of a 95% confidence interval. Risk ranges were produced for both ingestion and inhalation exposures. Results are presented in a graphical format to reduce reliance on qualitative discussions of …
Development Of An Effectiveness Model Or Metric For The Air Force Environmental Compliance Assessment And Management Program (Ecamp), Craig B. Dezell
Development Of An Effectiveness Model Or Metric For The Air Force Environmental Compliance Assessment And Management Program (Ecamp), Craig B. Dezell
Theses and Dissertations
The Department of Defense (DoD) and the Air Force (AF) are committed to being national leaders in protecting and enhancing the environment and achieving environmental compliance. This commitment is exemplified by the Air Force Chief of Staff's goal of no notices of violation (NOVs). However, the number of AF NOVs from 1990-1992 rose from 103 to 178 an increase of 73 percent. A July 1992 AF Inspector General Report also concluded that Environmental Compliance Assessment and Management Program (ECAMP) findings were not being effectively utilized by the Major Commands (MAJCOM). To aid AF leaders in solving these problems, and protecting …
A Predictive Model For The Determination Of The Economic Feasibility Of Construction And Demolition Waste Recycling In The Air Force, Byron L. Dixon
A Predictive Model For The Determination Of The Economic Feasibility Of Construction And Demolition Waste Recycling In The Air Force, Byron L. Dixon
Theses and Dissertations
This study created a model to be used at a CONUS Air Force base to determine the economic feasibility of Construction and Demolition (C&D) waste recycling. Three areas investigated to develop this model: the methods to determine amounts and types of C&D waste generated at a specific location, the markets for recycled C&D wastes, and the recycling methods currently available. From this data, gathered through records searches and interviews, a procedure was developed to perform cost/benefit analyses on the available recycling options. A model was then created based on these calculations which can arm a manager with information to either …
A Decision Support Model Using Life Cycle Cost (Lcc) Analysis To Select Cost-Effective Alternatives For Hazardous Materials, Blaine F. Burley, Kirk A. Phillips
A Decision Support Model Using Life Cycle Cost (Lcc) Analysis To Select Cost-Effective Alternatives For Hazardous Materials, Blaine F. Burley, Kirk A. Phillips
Theses and Dissertations
This research focuses on the development of a decision support model to select cost-effective alternatives for hazardous materials using life cycle cost (LCC) analysis. The model provides an effective decision-making tool to evaluate the economic feasibility of using alternatives for hazardous materials. Given a specific operation, the users of this model can enter site-specific cost data to determine the total LCCs of using baseline hazardous materials (i.e., hazardous materials currently being used in an operation), as well as the total LCCs of using various alternatives. This thesis postulates that the material having the lowest total LCC is considered to be …
A Strategy For Combining The Pollution Prevention Opportunity Assessment With The Environmental Compliance Assessment And Management Program, Stacy E. Gent
Theses and Dissertations
This research develops a method to allow an installation environmental function to satisfy the assessment requirements of both the Air Force Pollution Prevention and the Environmental Compliance Assessment and Management Program with the implementation of one assessment process. The model developed is designed to achieve the goals of both programs while increasing the efficiency of implementation. The resulting assessment model formulated within this research is applied on a theoretical level to yield preliminary results. These results indicate that the combination of the Pollution Prevention Opportunity Assessment and the environmental compliance assessment required by the Environmental Compliance Assessment and Management Program …
Investigation Of The Sensitivity, Selectivity, And Reversibility Of The Chemically-Sensitive Field-Effect Transistor (Chemfet) To Detect Nitrogen Dioxide, Dimethyl Methylphosphonate, And Boron Trifluoride, Neal T. Hauschild
Theses and Dissertations
This study investigated the sensitivity, selectivity, and reversibility of a chemically-sensitive field-effect transistor (CHEMFET) gas microsensor. Various physical operating parameters were tested to determine which produced the most significant sensitivity, selectivity, and reversibility which were computed from response changes generated from electrical conductivity modulations when exposed to challenge gases. The variable operating parameters included: thinfilm material, film thickness, challenge gas specie, challenge gas concentration, and operating temperature. Copper phthalocyanine and lead phthalocyanine were used as thin films to detect the following challenge gases: nitrogen dioxide, dimethyl methylphosphonate, boron trifluoride, methanol, carbon monoxide, vinyl chloride, and trichloroethylene. Tests revealed that copper …
Analytical Modeling Of Aquifer Decontamination By Pulsed Pumping When Contaminant Transport Is Affected By Rate-Limited Sorption And Desorption, Thomas A. Adams, Robert C. Viramontes
Analytical Modeling Of Aquifer Decontamination By Pulsed Pumping When Contaminant Transport Is Affected By Rate-Limited Sorption And Desorption, Thomas A. Adams, Robert C. Viramontes
Theses and Dissertations
This research explores radially convergent contaminated transport in an aquifer towards an extraction well. This thesis presents the equations governing the transport of a contaminant during aquifer remediation by pulsed pumping. Contaminant transport is assumed to be affected by radial advection, dispersion, and sorption/desorption. Sorption is assumed to be either equilibrium or rate-limited, with the rate-limitation described by either a first-order law, or by Fickian diffusion of contaminant through layered, cylindrical, or spherical immobile water regions. The equations are derived using an arbitrary initial distribution of contaminant in both the mobile and immobile regions, and they are analytically solved in …
Evaluation Of The Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Standard For Cleanup Of Petroleum Contaminated Sites, Rick A. Blaisdell, Mark E. Smallwood
Evaluation Of The Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Standard For Cleanup Of Petroleum Contaminated Sites, Rick A. Blaisdell, Mark E. Smallwood
Theses and Dissertations
This study evaluated the TPH (total petroleum hydrocarbon) cleanup standard for petroleum contaminated soils (PCS). A survey of 13 state regulators was performed to characterize current standards and regulatory viewpoints on the use of a TPH versus a BTEX cleanup standard. The regulatory community considers the BTEX constituents the greatest threat to groundwater, yet expressed concern that the use of a compound specific standard, without an accompanying analysis for TPH, might result in residual soil contamination that may present risk. This study also evaluated the ratio of BTEX TPH in soil over time. Based on JP-4 contaminated site soil data, …
Development Of A Multicriteria Decision Model For Prioritizing Air Force Environmental Restoration Program Projects, Thomas E. Ellingson, T. G. Gallogly
Development Of A Multicriteria Decision Model For Prioritizing Air Force Environmental Restoration Program Projects, Thomas E. Ellingson, T. G. Gallogly
Theses and Dissertations
Cleaning up hazardous and toxic wastes left from past activities has become one of the major goals of the Department of Defense. Within the Air Force, individual major commands (MAJCOMs) annually review numerous projects submitted under the Defense Environmental Restoration Program (DERP) and forward these projects to HQ USAF/CEVR for funding. Until recently, adequate resources have been available to fully fund all projects. However, within the last two years, funding shortfalls have been experienced, and projects have received only partial funding. The Air Force needs a decision support system that will assist in determining funding priorities for these projects. This …
Capabilities Of Air Force Wastewater Treatment Plants In Complying With Projected Regulatory Requirements, Steven R. Ford
Capabilities Of Air Force Wastewater Treatment Plants In Complying With Projected Regulatory Requirements, Steven R. Ford
Theses and Dissertations
One of the major environmental regulations that directly affects the Air Force is the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA). The 1972 FWPCA amendments set forth a series of national goals regarding water quality. The main mechanism for achieving these goals was the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES). NPDES is a program requiring dischargers to limit the quantity of pollutants discharged into the receiving waters. This research effort predicts changes in future NPDES permit requirements, and evaluated the capabilities of Air Force wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in meeting those future requirements. It was found that future permit requirements will …
A Risk Assessment Of The Health Liabilities From Exposure To Toxic Metals Found In The Composted Material Of Air Force Municipal Solid Waste, Timothy L. Merrymon
A Risk Assessment Of The Health Liabilities From Exposure To Toxic Metals Found In The Composted Material Of Air Force Municipal Solid Waste, Timothy L. Merrymon
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis assesses the risk of the health liabilities from exposure to toxic metals found in the composted material of Air Force municipal solid waste (MSW). The goal is to determine the probability that the composted MSW could be a health hazard if it were used as a soil amendment. The research limited the assessment of the exposure risk to heavy metals found in raw MSW and its resulting compost. The thesis uses reviews of present literature to examine the food and soil ingestion exposure pathways. These pathways are assessed using the heavy metal concentrations found in MSW compost and …
Development Of A Cost-Effectiveness Methodology To Prioritize Environmental Mitigation Projects, Robert E. Thompson
Development Of A Cost-Effectiveness Methodology To Prioritize Environmental Mitigation Projects, Robert E. Thompson
Theses and Dissertations
A cost-effectiveness prioritization methodology was developed using concepts from the cost-effectiveness technique. The new methodology called the Cost-Effectiveness methodology (CEM) allows the prioritization of mitigation projects across broad categories of hazardous sites as would be ranked among the offices of the Environmental Protection Agency. Two performance criteria were incorporated into the process--rank projects that save the most lives per dollar and enhance general applicability across different categories of risk. A metric was developed that represents the ratio of lives saved per dollar spent on mitigation alternatives of contaminated environmental sites. This metric was incorporated into the CEM to distinguish mitigation …
Software Cost Estimating Models: A Comparative Study Of What The Models Estimate, George A. Coggins, Roy C. Russell
Software Cost Estimating Models: A Comparative Study Of What The Models Estimate, George A. Coggins, Roy C. Russell
Theses and Dissertations
This effort developed a consolidated document which highlights and examines differences in definitions, assumptions, and methodologies used by the REVIC, SASET, PRICES, and SEER-SEM cost models. The following research questions were investigated: (1) What differences exist between the cost models? (2) How do these differences impact the resulting estimates? (3) To what degree can we explain and adjust for known differences between the cost models? Seven specific areas were addressed: (1) software development phases, (2) development activities and cost elements, (3) source lines of code and language differences, (4) key model attributes and key cost drivers, (5) implications of Project …
An Evaluation Of Aircraft Maintenance Performance Factors In The Objective Wing, Mark A. Gray, Margaret M. Ranalli
An Evaluation Of Aircraft Maintenance Performance Factors In The Objective Wing, Mark A. Gray, Margaret M. Ranalli
Theses and Dissertations
Prior to 1992, organizational maintenance was aligned under a - separate maintenance organization. In 1992, the Air Force restructured into Objective Wings with organizational maintenance aligned under the flying squadrons. This study looks at the impact of this reorganization on maintenance performance factors. The researchers developed maintenance performance models using regression and principal component analysis. Mission Capable Rate and Total Not Mission Capable Maintenance Rate are used as dependent variables. A comparison of key maintenance performance indicators and model predictions before and after the reorganization is accomplished. Based on the results of this analysis, the researchers conclude that there is …
Repair Process Improvement At The Ogden Air Logistics Center, Landing Gear Division: A Case Study In The Application Of The Theory Of Constraints, David A. Maddox, Susan L. Martz
Repair Process Improvement At The Ogden Air Logistics Center, Landing Gear Division: A Case Study In The Application Of The Theory Of Constraints, David A. Maddox, Susan L. Martz
Theses and Dissertations
This study explored the nature and extent of success that resulted from the implementation of the Theory of Constraints (TOC) in a depot repair environment. The actions taken to implement TOC were determined. Performance measures which defined success were identified and data were collected and summarized to demonstrate performance before and after implementation of TOC concepts. Improvements in flowdays and work-in-process (WIP) were determined to be attributable to the TOC effort. In addition, the unique characteristics of probabalistic repair and supply system variability were noted as those characteristics that posed the greatest challenges to implementing TOC in a remanufacturing environment. …
A Comparison Of The Disaster™ Scheduling Software With A Simultaneous Scheduling Algorithm For Minimizing Maximum Tardiness In Job Shops, Barak J. Carlson, Christopher A. Lettiere
A Comparison Of The Disaster™ Scheduling Software With A Simultaneous Scheduling Algorithm For Minimizing Maximum Tardiness In Job Shops, Barak J. Carlson, Christopher A. Lettiere
Theses and Dissertations
The Theory of Constraints (TOC) is the foundation for a computerized scheduling system called DISASTER. Although this system has proven successful in many manufacturing settings, it has potential limitations due to the sequential heuristic process by which it schedules constraints. The objective of this thesis was to determine the extent to which these limitations impact the due date performance of schedules created by DISASTER. This objective was addressed by developing an algorithm to simultaneously schedule multiple constraints in a job shop environment and provide the optimal schedule for minimized maximum tardiness. This algorithm was used to obtain solutions for a …
An Exploratory Survey Of Methods Used To Develop Measures Of Performance, Kenneth L. Hamner, Charles A. Lafleur
An Exploratory Survey Of Methods Used To Develop Measures Of Performance, Kenneth L. Hamner, Charles A. Lafleur
Theses and Dissertations
Nonmanufacturing organizations are being challenged to provide high- quality products and services to their customers, with an emphasis on continuous process improvement. Measures of performance, referred to as metrics, can be used to foster process improvement. The application of performance measurement to nonmanufacturing processes can be very difficult. This research explored methods used to develop metrics in nonmanufacturing Organizations. Several methods were formally defined in the literature, and the researchers used a two- step screening process to determine the OMB Generic Method was most likely to produce high-quality metrics. The OMB Generic Method was then used to develop metrics. A …
An Investigation Of Integrated Product Development Implementation Issues: A Case Study Of Bosma Machine And Tool Corp, F. Paul Khuri, Howard M. Plevyak Jr.
An Investigation Of Integrated Product Development Implementation Issues: A Case Study Of Bosma Machine And Tool Corp, F. Paul Khuri, Howard M. Plevyak Jr.
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis investigated Integrated Product Development (IPD) implementation issues. Research emphasis focused on teams used in IPD, particularly self-directed work teams (SDWTs). The areas addressed in the study were: Work Environment, Team Organization, Training and Education, Group Dynamics and Communication, Motivation, Rewards and Incentives, Measurements, and Contracts. Data was collected using interviews and presented as a case study. The most significant findings on work environment were that the organization's leadership should commit to the teaming idea and sell it to the organization's members. Teams should be organized by choosing members carefully and defining all roles. Personnel should be trained in …
An Analysis Of The Effectiveness Of The Air Force Drug Testing Program And Four Potential Modifications, Thomas R. Doster, Hubert A. Ross
An Analysis Of The Effectiveness Of The Air Force Drug Testing Program And Four Potential Modifications, Thomas R. Doster, Hubert A. Ross
Theses and Dissertations
This study evaluated the 1992 USAF Drug Testing Program and potential improvements, based on the number of drug users detected, cost, and legal issues. Four potential improvements were examined: (1) increasing the annual amount of random urinalysis; (2) increasing the proportion of commander-directed testing; (3) using a weighted selection technique, and (4) replacing urinalysis with hair testing. For each improvement, the researchers used test and survey results to estimate the number of drug users detected, a cost formula to estimate any changes in cost, and interviews with legal experts to identify any legal issues associated with implementing the modification. Researchers …
An Independent Evaluation Of Information Systems Support Of The Joint Forces Air Component Commander Concept Of Operations, Gregory R. Kincaid, Richard A. Poligala
An Independent Evaluation Of Information Systems Support Of The Joint Forces Air Component Commander Concept Of Operations, Gregory R. Kincaid, Richard A. Poligala
Theses and Dissertations
This study examines automated Air Tasking Order (ATO) generation and dissemination under the Joint Forces Air Component Commander (JFACC) concept, focusing on an evaluation of information systems support given the differing service philosophies concerning control of tactical air assets. Current Department of Defense doctrine identifies the Contingency Tactical Air Control System Automated System (CTAPS) as the standard automated system for Theater Battle Management planning for the JFACC. To achieve service interoperability, the doctrine requires the use of CTAPS for ATO generation and dissemination when joint operations are conducted under the JFACC concept. A problem arises in that CTAPS is developed …
An Investigation Of Integrated Product Development Teams Of The F-22 Program, Gary F. Wagner, Randall L. White
An Investigation Of Integrated Product Development Teams Of The F-22 Program, Gary F. Wagner, Randall L. White
Theses and Dissertations
This study investigated Integrated Product Development (IPD) at the F-22 System Program Office (SPO). A literature review revealed the key IPD characteristics of organizational structure, communication, intense up-front planning, training, integrated management tools, and lessons learned. The research method was twenty-two personal interviews of SPO subjects selected from four IPD teams, the front office, and functional support divisions. Key findings included an emphasis on up-front planning to establish an organizational and contractual structure which empowered workers to develop their products. Also, constant communication with all other functions and teams was stressed while training was primarily done while transitioning to IPD. …
Economic Analysis Of Costs Incurred From Chemical Exposures In The Workplace Resulting In Non-Carcinogenic Responses As Additional Justification For Pollution Prevention Projects, Michael L. Forcht, Timothy D. Neu
Economic Analysis Of Costs Incurred From Chemical Exposures In The Workplace Resulting In Non-Carcinogenic Responses As Additional Justification For Pollution Prevention Projects, Michael L. Forcht, Timothy D. Neu
Theses and Dissertations
This research determines the applicability of using costs associated with chemical exposures in the workplace for financial justification of pollution prevention projects. Specifically, this thesis looks at costs incurred due to noncarcinogenic effects caused by chemical exposures. Average costs are determined through researching applicable statistical cost data. Acute effects are analyzed using an analysis of available statistical accident data from multiple sources. Expected values are then calculated based upon the projected cost of an accident and the probability of having an accident. Chronic effects are analyzed using an empirical analysis. A risk assessment is used to determine the likelihood of …