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Journal Of Actuarial Practice - Volume 12 (2005) - Contents And Masthead

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Contents

Editorial Policy: Topics suitable for this journal include AIDS, annuity products, asset-liability matching, cash-flow testing, casualty rate making, credibility theory, credit insurance, disability insurance, expense analysis, experience studies, FASB issues, financial reporting, group insurance, health insurance, individual risk taking, insurance regulations, international issues, investments, liability insurance, loss reserves, marketing, pensions, pricing issues, product development, reinsurance, reserving issues, risk-based capital, risk theory, social insurance, solvency issues, taxation, valuation issues, and workers' compensation

Review Process

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska

Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of Omaha ○ Ruy Cardoso, Actuarial Frameworks ○ …

An Application Of Control Theory To The Individual Aggregate Cost Method, Alexandros A. Zimbidis, Steven Haberman

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The paper investigates the individual aggregate cost method (also known as the individual spread-gain method), which is normally applicable in small pension funds or fully contributory schemes, using a control theoretical framework. We construct the difference equations describing the mechanisms of the respective funding method and then calculate the optimal control path of the contribution rate assuming (first) a stochastic and (second) a deterministic pattern for the future investment rates of return. For the first case, the optimal solution is achieved through a linear approximation and using stochastic optimization techniques. It is proved that the contribution rate is (optimally) controlled …

Modeling Insurance Loss Data: The Log-Eig Distribution, Uditha Balasooriya, Chan Kee Low, Adrian Y.W. Wong

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The log-EIG distribution was recently introduced to the probability literature. It has positive support and a moderately long tail, and is closer to the lognormal than to the gamma or Weibull distributions. Our simulations show that data generated from a log-EIG distribution cannot be adequately described by lognormal, gamma, or Weibull distributions. The log-EIG distribution is a worthwhile candidate for modeling insurance claims (loss) data or lifetime data. Examples of fitting the log-EIG to published insurance claims data are given.

A Modern Approach To Modeling Insurances On Two Lives, Maria Bilikova, Graham Luffrum

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The analysis of life insurance contracts on two lives using the traditional deterministic approach has been an important part of actuarial education for the past fifty years or more. Recently there has been a shift from this deterministic approach to one using a more modern stochastic approach involving the future lifetime random variable. In this paper we will look at the problem using multiple-state models. In our view this approach allows a deeper analysis than either the traditional or the random future lifetime ones.

Ultimate Ruin Probability For A Time-Series Risk Model With Dependent Classes Of Insurance Business, Lai Mei Wan, Kam Chuen Yuen, Wai Keung Li

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We consider a discrete-time risk model with m (m ~ 2) dependent classes of insurance business. The claim processes of these m classes are assumed to follow a multivariate autoregressive time-series model of order 1. Given this claims model, we explore the probability of ultimate ruin assuming exponentially bounded claims. As an example, we use simulations to study the case where there are two business and the underlying losses are of two types: bivariate exponential and bivariate gamma claim distributions.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 12, 2005, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES

Risk-Based Regulatory Capital for Insurers: A Case Study • Christian Sutherland-Wong and Michael Sherris 5

A New Hybrid Defined Benefit Plan Design • Wayne E. Dydo . 47

A Primer on Duration, Convexity, and Immunization • Leslaw Gajek, Krzysztof Ostaszewski, and Hans-Joachim Zwiesler 59

Modeling Clusters of Extreme Losses • Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes and Juliana Sa Freire de Lima 83

Modeling Insurance Loss Data: The Log-EIG Distribution • Uditha Balasooriya, Chan Kee Low, and Adrian Y W Wong 101

A Modern Approach to Modeling Insurances on Two Lives • Maria Bilikova and Graham Luffrum 127

On the …

The Role Of Analysts’ Forecasts In Accounting-Based Valuation: A Critical Evaluation, Qiang Cheng

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

This paper critically evaluates the use of analysts forecasts in accounting-based valuation. Specifically, I assess the usefulness and the limitation of analysts forecasts in predicting future earnings and in explaining the market-to-book ratio, in light of a comprehensive set of 22 explicit information items, including: economic rent proxies, conservative accounting proxies, earnings quality signals, transitory earnings proxies, industry characteristics, and risk and growth proxies. While analysts forecasts capture 45–83% of the information from these sources depending on model specifications, they do not appear to fully incorporate certain information items. In particular, proxies for conservative accounting and transitory earnings are incrementally …

Financing Strategies Of The R & D Firm, Lawrence Fogelberg, John M, Griffith

Finance Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the financing strategies of the R&D firm. Our hypotheses are based on Cho's (1992) game theory model where the firm develops a product but needs additional financing to bring it to market. The model generates a particularly rich set of hypotheses: 1) to fund the completion of its project and bring its product to market, the firm initiates negotiations with an established firm; 2) the majority of the acquisitions will be partial cash acquisitions through private secondary offerings. Confirming the model's hypotheses, we find that the majority of the acquisitions are partial cash acquisitions by significantly larger …

Domestic And Foreign Earnings, Stock Return Variability, And The Impact Of Investor Sophistication, Dan Segal, Jeffrey L. Callen, Ole-Kristian Hope

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We examine the importance of foreign earnings relative to domestic earnings for a sample of U.S. multinationals using variance decomposition. Our methodology represents an alternative and complementary approach over the prior literature, which is based on traditional regressions and earnings response coefficients. We document that domestic earnings are more important in explaining the variance of unexpected returns than are foreign earnings and that the relative importance of domestic earnings is a decreasing function of investor sophistication. Last, we classify institutional investors as either short- or long-term oriented following Bushee [1998]. We find that the variance contribution of foreign earnings increases …

Ownership Structure, Investment Behaviour And Firm Performance In Japanese Manufacturing Industries, Eric Gedajlovic, Toru Yoshikawa, Motomi Hashimoto

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using data spanning the 1996-98 fiscal years of 247 of Japan's largest manufacturers, we empirically evaluate the extent to which a firm's investment behaviour and financial performance are influenced by its ownership structure. To do so, we examine six distinct categories of Japanese shareholders: foreign investors, investment funds, pension funds, banks and insurance companies, affiliated companies and insiders. Our findings strongly indicate that the relationship between the equity stakes of a particular category of investor and a firm' s financial performance and investment behaviour is considerably more complex than is depicted in simple principal-agent representations. Such a result emphasizes the …

Voluntary Decisions On Audit Committee Composition And Expertise And The Influence Of Board Of Director Characteristics: Further Evidence From Singapore, Jean-Luc Wolfgang Mitchell Van Der Zahn, Inderpal Singh

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

No abstract provided.

What Determines Residual Income?, Qiang Cheng

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

This paper investigates the determinants of residual income scaled by book value of equity, i.e., abnormal return on equity (ROE), by analyzing the impact of value-creation (economic rents) and value-recording (conservative accounting) processes on abnormal ROE. I rely on economic theories to characterize economic rents and develop an empirical measure—the conservative accounting factor—to capture the effect of conservative accounting. As expected, industry abnormal ROE increases with industry concentration, industry-level barriers to entry, and industry conservative accounting factors. Also as expected, the difference between firm and industry abnormal ROE increases with market share, firm size, firm-level barriers to entry, and firm …

Equity Incentives And Earnings Management, Qiang Cheng, Terry Warfield

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

This paper examines the link between managers' equity incentives—arising from stock-based compensation and stock ownership—and earnings management. We hypothesize that managers with high equity incentives are more likely to sell shares in the future and this motivates these managers to engage in earnings management to increase the value of the shares to be sold. Using stock-based compensation and stock ownership data over the 1993–2000 time period, we document that managers with high equity incentives sell more shares in subsequent periods. As expected, we find that managers with high equity incentives are more likely to report earnings that meet or just …

Boeing-Airbus Subsidy Dispute: A Sequel, Robert J. Carbaugh, John Olienyk

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of Business

After intensifying in the 1980s and 1990s, the longstanding dispute between Europe and the United States over government subsidies for the commercial jetliner industry again heated up in 2004. This time, however, the stakes were higher because both nations sued each other at the World Trade Organization over government subsidies paid to their respective commercial jetliner companies. The dispute over subsidies has heightened trade tensions between the United States and Europe, as both companies spar for dominance in the highly competitive industry of commercial aircraft.

This paper provides a sequel to "Boeing-Airbus Subsidy Dispute: An Economic and Trade Perspective," a …

The Importance Of Integrated Goal Setting: The Application Of Cost-Of-Capital Concepts To Private Firms, A. Frank Adams Iii, George E. Manners Jr, Joseph H. Astrachan, Pietro Mazzola

Faculty Articles

In this article, we examine financial return, answer the question of how one knows when the return is adequate, and explore the relationship of short- and long-term returns as they relate to business health.

Using The Wacc To Value Real Options, Tom Arnold, Timothy Falcon Crack

Finance Faculty Publications

We present a real option valuation using the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). This is an alternative to risk-neutral real option valuation. Using the WACC involves a marginal increase in mathematical complexity, but it is easy to implement in a spreadsheet, and it is easy to present to management. Our analysis reveals, however, that because the real option valuation is immune to choices of admissible discount rates (as per Arnold and Crack 2003a), the critical issue is correct estimation of volatility, not choice of discount rate. We also point out that the natural and conservative tendency to overestimate risk …

Prospect Theory, Analyst Forecast, And Stock Returns, David K. Ding, Charlie Charoenwong, Raymond Seetoh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper documents how prospect theory can be used to explain stock returns and analysts' forecast behavior. Positive earnings surprises are associated with increases in abnormal returns but negative earnings surprises have only a limited negative impact on returns. We find that analysts display asymmetric behavior towards positive and negative earnings growth. Analysts' forecasts are found to be accurate during periods of positive earnings growth, but overly optimistic during periods of negative earnings growth. Our findings have implications for the structuring of investment products, as well as the role of market timing in their introduction.

Investing In Hedge Funds: Risks, Returns And Performance Measurement, Francis Koh, Winston T. H. Koh, David K. C. Lee, Kok Fai Phoon

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Hedge funds are collective investment vehicles that are often established with a special legal status that allows their investment managers a free hand to use derivatives, short sell, and exploit leverage to raise returns and cushion risk. We review various issues relating to the investment in hedge funds, which have become popular with high net-worth individuals and institutional investors, as well as discuss their empirical risk and return profiles. The concerns regarding the empirical measurements are highlighted, and meaningful analytical methods are proposed to provide greater risk transparency in performance reporting. We also discuss the development of the hedge fund …

Membership On Editorial Boards And Rankings Of Schools With International Business Orientation, Kam C. Chan, Hung-Gay Fung Dr., Pikki Lai

GFCB Working Paper Series

Using four-year data (1990, 1994, 1998, and 2002), we have provided a ranking of schools with international business (IB) orientation based on the membership on editorial boards of 30 leading international business journals. Participation on editorial boards of quality journals is highly selective, and should provide a quality indication of the schools. Both quality unadjusted and adjusted board membership based ranking are calculated in this study. Several interesting findings are worth noting. First, U.S. schools play a significant leadership role among the leading IB programs. Second, the findings of this study also show the major contribution of non-U.S. schools, which …

Employment Generation And Opportunities In The Manufacturing Sub-Sector. The Case For The Manufacturing Of Farm Implements., Ihinodu I. I

Bullion

The modernization of agriculture has the potential to achieve the various objectives of creating employment, increasing productivity and output in both the sector and the entire economy, thus contributing to the food security goal of the government. This paper aims primarily at examining the prospects as well as the processes of manufacturing agricultural implements with a view to encouraging small/medium entrepreneurs to engage in the ventures. It examines the manufacturing activities of farm implements. It analyses the role which governments should play as well as highlighting the potential benefits of the enterprises. The paper conclude that given the stage of …

Employment Creation And Opportunities In The Manufacturing Sub-Sector: The Case For The Manufacturing Of Cotton, Textile In Nigeria., Onuoha G. Nkem

Bullion

Nigeria is the third largest producer of cotton in Africa after Egypt and Sudan. Cotton growing zones are mainly in the Northern parts of the country, though the planting of cotton started in Western Nigeria. This paper focusses on the manufacture of cotton, textile in Nigeria, sources of material available, the equipment required, manpower, the land space required, the capital outlay and Profitability of the business. The paper concludes that from the financial result of the above analysis, the project is economically viable and technically feasible. Neem Seeds as Raw Materials is in abundance and can be sourced at lower …

How Do Institutional Investors Trade, Paul G. J. O'Connell, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using a novel and detailed custody trades dataset, this paper analyzes the trading behavior of institutions. Extant studies have examined the effects of past performance on trading by retail investors, day traders, and futures floor traders. Yet very little work has been done on institutions. We find that unlike other investors, institutions take on more risk following an increase in net profit and loss. However, the responses to a gain and loss are highly asymmetric. Institutions aggressively reduce risk in the wake of losses, but only mildly increase risk in the wake of gains. This asymmetry is more pronounced for …

How Corporate Culture Impacts Unethical Distortion Of Financial Numbers, Joseph F. Castellano, Kenneth Y. Rosenzweig, Harper A. Roehm

Accounting Faculty Publications

The recent accounting scandals have highlighted the critical role that investor confidence in the accuracy and lack of distortion of accounting data plays in the health of capital markets and, indeed, the whole economy. The legal and moral culpability of top-level company managers (as well as auditors) is an issue that will be addressed by the nation in the coming months. Whether or not legal sanctions are imposed on managers, it would be well to examine some of the reasons managers may feel compelled to distort accounting numbers as well as engage in other actions that damage the interests of …

Review And Appraisal Of 2003 Budget And Economic Performance., Ige S. Cyril

Bullion

The first set of problems in realizing the benefits of a national budget in Nigeria, the 2003 Federal Government Budget in particular, is the delay in formulation and presentation to the National Assembly. This paper examines various definitions of the national budget as understood by some of the important stakeholder. It discusses budget implementation and management, budget 2003 and the people, strengthening programming as a basis of budgeting for development, and co-ordination of economic management in 2003. Finally, the study concludes that NEEDS is a welcome idea but its goals will prove difficult to achieve because of the flaw in …

Fiscal Policy Thrust Of The 2004 Budget., Odoko F. O

Bullion

The budget is an important tool of economic management. Usually, it presents estimates of Government revenue and expenditure for a fiscal year. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the fiscal policy measures in the 2004 Budget. This paper contains the background to the budget, the policy thrust and the key parameters. It highlights the revenue and expenditure estimates and identifies the policy priorities and prospects. Finally, a good monetary policy is expected to achieve macro economic stability and a sound financial sector if effectively implemented and barring fiscal shocks. Overall, socio-political stability and fiscal discipline …

Monetary And Other Financial Sector Policy Measures In 2004., Nnanna O. J

Bullion

The objective of this paper is to review the monetary and other financial sector policy measures in 2004, with a view to identifying how they assist in achieving the macroeconomic objectives of the government in fiscal 2004. This paper evaluates the financial sector and the macroeconomic developments during fiscal 2003. It examines the monetary and other financial sector policies in 2004. A good monetary policy is expected to achieve macro economic stability and a sound financial sector if effectively implemented and barring fiscal shocks. Overall, socio-political stability and fiscal discipline are critical factors for the effectiveness of monetary policy. The …

External Sector Policies In The 2004 Budget, Obadan I. Mike

Bullion

External sector problems have continued to pose serious challenges to economic management in Nigeria. There is the challenge of conducting trade policy within the framework of the World Trade Organisation's [WTO] rules and regulations without compromising the country's short and Iong-term interests. This paper discusses the policy thrusts with respect to three issues in 2004, viz: Trade policy, Exchange rate policy, and External debt management. In the last few years, the government appears to have recognized the need to conduct trade policy, specifically, trade liberalization in a sensible and orderly manner. Hence, the growing effective protection being accorded local industries. …

Post-Jgtrra Dividend Planning, Danny A. Pannese, Paul N. Iannone

WCBT Faculty Publications

The JGTRRA reduced the tax rate on dividends for individuals and lowered the accumulated earnings and personal holding company taxes for corporations until 2008. This article reviews some of the planning techniques corporations and shareholders can use to take advantage of the temporarily lower rates.

One of the key provisions of the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (JGTRRA), if not the prime emphasis of the legislation, is Section 302's reduction in the individual tax rate on corporate dividends received to 15% (5% for individuals in the 15% and 10% brackets). In an emerging trend, the lower …

Obesity, Educational Attainment, And State Economic Welfare, Martin W. Sivula Ph.D.

MBA Faculty Conference Papers & Journal Articles

For the first time in history, estimates of the overweight people in the world rival estimates of those malnourished. The World Health Organization (WHO, 2002) ranked obesity among the top 10 risks to human health worldwide. In the early 1960s, nearly half of the Americans were overweight and 13% were obese. Today some 64% of U.S. adults are overweight and 30.5% are obese. Even more alarming, twice as many U.S. children are overweight than were twenty years ago, a 66% increase. Non-communicable diseases impose a heavy economic burden on already strained health systems. Health is a key determinant of development …

International Cross-Listing And The Bonding Hypothesis, Dan Segal, Michael King

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

The authors describe a new view of cross-listing that links the impact on firm valuation to the firm's ability to develop an active secondary market for its shares in the U.S. markets. Contrary to previous research, cross-listing may not provide benefits for all firms, even when those firms meet the highest regulatory requirements for disclosure and supervision. When cross-listed firms are divided into two groups on the basis of their share turnover in the home market relative to the U.S. market, the firms that develop active trading in the U.S. market experience an increase in valuation. Cross-listed firms that remain …