Corporate Finance Commons^™

Forecasting The Unpredictable: The Bullwhip Effect In The Toy Industry, Mannat Sethi

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the bullwhip effect, the amplification of demand variability as it moves upstream in a supply chain, with a focus on the toy industry, and comparative analysis with the technology and consumer goods sectors. Using annual data from 1993 to 2024, the study analyzes production and retail growth for Mattel, Hasbro, Intel, and Procter & Gamble to assess how variance between consumer demand and firm output has changed over time. Bullwhip ratios are calculated as the variance of production growth divided by the variance of retail growth across two periods: 1993–2008 and 2009–2024.

The findings show that toy …

Ceo Linguistic Stress And Abnormal Stock Returns Evidence From S&P 500 Earnings Conference Calls, Yiqi Sun

CMC Senior Theses

Stress is pervasive among corporate executives, yet its effect on firms' future abnormal return remains largely unexplored. This paper examines whether CEO's Linguistic stress exhibited during earnings conference calls predicts future abnormal stock returns. I provided a Large Language Model (Claude Sonnet 4.6) psychology-backed prompts to analyze CEO stress from linguistic patterns in 7491 earnings call transcripts from 470 companies in the S&P 500 during 2020-2024. I found three main results. First, the CEO linguistic stress is negatively and significantly associated with the immediate market reaction, with a one-unit increase in stress score associated with a 0.9% decrease in the …

Hidden Fragility: Leveraged Loan Risk And Tail Exposure In The Clo 2.0 Era, Francis P. Gehring Iv

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines whether post-crisis changes in leveraged loan characteristics have increased the underlying credit risk embedded in collateralized loan obligation (CLO) portfolios and whether that risk is fully reflected in market pricing. Since the Global Financial Crisis, the leveraged loan market has expanded significantly alongside the growth of CLOs, while underwriting standards have weakened through higher borrower leverage, covenant-lite lending, and greater private equity sponsorship. Although post-crisis CLOs are often viewed as more resilient because of stronger structural protections, the quality of the underlying collateral remains central to overall risk. Using loan-level data from the Refinitiv DealScan database from …

Short-Window Market Reactions To Real Estate M&A: A Comparative Event Study Of Reits And Real Estate Services Firms, Aryan Kaila

CMC Senior Theses

Existing research on real estate mergers has largely focused on REIT acquirers in isolation, typically finding near-zero bidder reactions in short event windows. There is little work that directly compares REITs with publicly listed real estate services (RES) firms that operate in the same market cycles and conditions but follow different business models. Using a transaction-level dataset of 137 U.S. mergers from 1994 to 2024, this study applies event-study methodology and cross-sectional regression analysis to investigate whether equity markets respond differently to acquisitions undertaken by REITs and real estate services firms. The estimates show that REIT acquirers experience notably more …

Impact Of Attention And Yield Curve On Term Structure Of Equity, Matthew C. Aved

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the term structure of equity and specifically focuses on the impact of term spread and market attention. The paper builds on prior work that developed the concept by adding behavioral explanations for differences between the short-term and long-term returns while also attempting to link the term structure of equity and the bond yield curve. The study examines these influences by running t-tests and regressions on dividend strip and S&P 500 return data (1996-2017) and attention data collected by Bloomberg (2010-2017). The results provide some insight into how these variables influence short-term and long-term returns; however, limited instances …

Navigating New Capital Sources: Financing Constraints And The Growth Of Private Credit, David George Mathias Jr.

CMC Senior Theses

The rapid growth of private credit—non-bank lending where firms receive funds directly from private lenders like asset managers, private equity firms, and institutional investors—has reshaped corporate financing dynamics. This paper examines how private credit influences firm financing constraints and macroeconomic risk through the use of a dataset consisting of private credit deals, firm-level financial metrics, and macroeconomic indicators from 1995 to 2023. Regression analysis reveals that private credit has an insignificant effect on financing constraints as it generally acts as a substitute for traditional financing and a counterforce to tightening bank policies. However, a significant relationship emerges between private credit …

Taking Stock: Investigating The Relationship Between Stock-Based Compensation And Share Price Performance In Public Software Companies, Ethan Choi

CMC Senior Theses

There has been considerable debate around the practice of compensating employees and executives using stock-based compensation (“SBC”). Studies point to a myriad of both benefits and drawbacks of SBC; while in practice, firms with high SBC intensity have harmed shareholders through share count dilution. One industry in particular has drawn sharp investor criticism for its SBC intensity: software. Despite the software sector’s growing importance to the economy and influence in the public markets, no academic literature has analyzed the impacts of SBC on software companies specifically. Filling the gap, investor literature has sought to examine this topic in the context …

Startup Equity To Stock Exchange: Key Drivers In Venture-Backed Ipo Journeys, Aryaman Shiv Khosla

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates the components that shape the probability of a venture capital (VC) backed company’s ability to transition from private to public markets through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). The study employs logistic regression models to analyze firm-specific and funding-related determinants of IPO likelihood. Key predictors in this study include total VC funding, number of VC rounds, average deal size growth, size of first round, average days between rounds, company age, number of employees, and primary industry sector. The findings reveal that higher total funding increases IPO likelihood, highlighting the critical role of robust capital access in fueling growth …

Sustainability Gaps: The Role Of Esg Disparities In M&A Performance During The Covid-19 Era, Anastasia Nikolaeva

CMC Senior Theses

My thesis investigates the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) score disparities between acquirer and target companies on cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) from 2018 to 2022, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using Bloomberg and Refinitiv Eikon datasets, I explore whether the ESG delta between merging firms influences financial outcomes, hypothesizing that higher ESG alignment enhances CAR (cumulative abnormal return). My preliminary findings indicate that larger ESG disparities positively affect acquirer CAR but may reduce target CAR, suggesting that ESG alignment benefits vary by stakeholder and merger dynamics. These results highlight the evolving …

Better Than Blume: An Approach To Forecasting Future Stock Betas With Linear Bayesian Models And Sample-Wide Priors, Kian Shah

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the predictive accuracy of stock beta forecasts by comparing the widely used Blume adjusted beta to four Bayesian regression models I developed. Stock beta, an essential measure of systematic risk, plays a crucial role in portfolio management and valuation; however, raw betas lack forecasting capabilities. While various attempts have been made to develop alternative beta forecasting models, the Blume adjustment remains the most commonly used. To evaluate this, I created four Bayesian models utilizing a single, sample-wide set of priors, simplifying the computational requirements compared to stock-specific priors. The analysis is based on daily return data for …

Unlocking Value Or Signaling Trouble? Exploring The Determinants Of Immediate Market Reactions To Underwater Employee Option Exchanges, Riley Lai

CMC Senior Theses

Whether employee option exchanges are an effective process to ensure a firm’s future outlook is vital for companies to consider. Evaluating the impact of these exchanges on firm value and shareholder wealth can provide insights for companies to align employee incentives with shareholder interests. This paper seeks to determine a definitive correlation between employee option exchange announcements and positive or negative abnormal returns over the announcement window. The focus is on the regulatory environment post-Section 409A, a provision in the Internal Revenue Code that prohibits the issuance of in-the-money employee stock options. This paper fills a significant gap in the …

Forecasting Equity Betas Using Option-Implied Moments, Ivan Kolesnikov

CMC Senior Theses

Traditional beta estimates are constructed from historical stock‑and‑market returns and therefore adjust only as fast as realized data accrue. This thesis investigates whether the forward‑looking information embedded in equity‑option prices can enhance beta forecasts. Using near‑end‑of‑day quotes for 236 S&P 500 firms between 2007 and 2024, I extract risk‑neutral variance and skewness, construct five alternative beta estimators (historical, option‑implied, and three hybrids), and evaluate them against realized betas over six‑, twelve‑, and twenty‑four‑month windows. Rolling‑OLS beta remains the most accurate benchmark at short horizons, yet option‑implied moments add economically and statistically significant value when systematic exposure is expected to change …

Optimizing Bitcoin Allocation: Predictability Of Bitcoin Portfolio Weights Through Macroeconomic Variables, Kirby Baynes

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines whether Bitcoin is a beneficial asset in a diversified, mean-variance optimized portfolio and whether its portfolio weights can be reliably predicted using macroeconomic variables. Using data from December 2013 to February 2025, the analysis applies rolling-window portfolio optimization and OLS regressions with Newey-West standard errors to test the relationship between Bitcoin allocations and a set of macroeconomic indicators. Results show that Bitcoin receives non-zero weights across portfolios and that its optimal allocation is sensitive to variables such as changes in the Credit Spread and Yield Curve. These variables were statistically significant in several models and produced meaningful …

Owning Green: Evaluating The Effects Of Actively Managed Sustainability Fund Ownership On Esg Scores, Caleb Young

CMC Senior Theses

The growing trend of acknowledging ESG performance as a material concern when conducting due diligence on investment opportunities has exacerbated the number of assets being managed by investors with sustainability-oriented goals. At the same time, as social and climate-related issues have become more intense, investors want to use their agency as shareholders to influence companies to act in ways that align with their values. Frequently, this can be most effectively achieved through proxy voting and corporate engagement, particularly if the fund is an active manager. This thesis explores the interaction between ESG-focused ETFs and mutual funds and their management style …

Unions’ Impact On Firms’ Financial Decision Making: A Look At Right-To-Work Laws And Their Impact On Firms’ Leverage Decisions, Rachana Muvvala

CMC Senior Theses

I study the impact of unions on firms’ financial decision making by exploring their capital structure, specifically leverage. I test two opposing hypotheses to understand the relationship between unions and firms’ leverage: (1) the bargaining hypothesis which suggests that firms use higher leverage as a bargaining device with unions, and (2) the crowding-out hypothesis which suggests that firms have lower leverage because unions crowd out their debt capacity due to their perceived riskiness. Focusing on the 2007 to 2022 period, I examine right-to-work (RTW) laws, since they are exogenous shocks that decrease union power in five different states. Then, I …

Market Reaction Test On Banks & Brokers Based On Bitcoin Price History. A Look At National Commercial Banks And Security Broker, Exchanges, And Service Stocks Following The Most Volatile Swings In Bitcoin’S Price., Payton Earl

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines if there is an inverse correlation between Bitcoin’s most volatile price swings and national commercial banks and security brokers, exchanges and service companies performance. Company performance in the dataset is measured by Cumulative Abnormal Returns during 2021 within a two-day period where Bitcoin has had the most significant uptick and downtick events. Using a market-adjusted model for my regression, it is concluded that Bitcoin’s largest uptick event did indeed have an inversely negative effect on traditional banks and trading securities companies, as the Cumulative Abnormal Returns were negative for my 107 observations and the event was statistically …

Listed Private Equity Returns: The Forecasting Power Of Premiums And Discounts, Daniel Krasemann

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I assess the ability of premiums and discounts to predict future listed private equity returns. I hypothesize that the premiums and discounts of the net asset value of the listed private equity funds with monthly lags hold forecasting power. I use four distinct listed private equity indices and their respective NAV P/D values for my research. To ensure my analysis is realistic in scope, I incorporate a variety of macroeconomic variables that have been proven to influence listed private equity returns. I structure my time-period analysis around the 2008-09 financial crisis. I generally find that a two-month …

Doing Well While Doing Good? The Cost Of Responsible Investing, Elizabeth Iwicki

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I estimate the monthly alpha of highly rated ESG stocks, with the motivation to assess the effects of ESG investors on public equity markets. I hypothesize, consistent with the motivating theory of Heinkel et al. (2001), that the shift in investor preferences toward ESG-friendly investments leads to the underperformance of a broad ESG portfolio relative to a portfolio of comparable stocks. I test my hypothesis using the methodology of Hong and Kacperczyk (2009) and Wallace (2022), where I apply the methods to an ESG portfolio rather than a “sin” portfolio. Consistent with my hypothesis, I find that …

Does Firm Payout Behavior Serve As A Signal For Future Profitability?, Michael Colangelo

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper I explore the potential signaling capability that payout behavior, in the forms of dividends and share repurchases, has on the profitability of a firm. To do so, I analyze the relationship that dividends paid, share repurchases, and total payout have with asset turnover, return on assets, and EBITDA margin across different time structures. Next, I aim to understand if there is a significant differential impact of negative payout growth compared to positive payout growth, on the growth of the same performance measures above. I found that an increase in share repurchases and total payout both lead to …

Blockchain Games: What On And Off-Chain Factors Affect The Volatility, Returns, And Liquidity Of Gaming Crypto Tokens, Sumer Sareen

CMC Senior Theses

Blockchain games took the internet by storm as they offered a new way for users to play video games, own the assets in those games, and benefit monetarily from their efforts. Through Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) and cryptocurrencies, new, Web3 games ushered in a unique asset class for retail and institutional investors to diversify into and benefit from. This paper uses cross-sectional data from 30 blockchain gaming companies to identify on and off-chain factors that affect the company’s token volatility, returns, and liquidity. A multiple linear regression found the percentage of tokens dedicated to a company’s private sale and rewarding users, …

Securing The Overnight Rates: A Study Of Alternative Reference Rates In Illiquid Overnight Tri-Party Repo Markets, Michael Murphy

CMC Senior Theses

Since 2011, the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) has been on the way out for practitioners and researchers alike due to its manipulation in key bank quotes during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper intends to examine key rates being introduced as LIBOR substitutes, such as SOFR, BSBY, and Ameribor. Specific to its concern, the paper will back test these rates during times of illiquidity in both their respective markets and the broader financial markets to determine which rates will be able to sustain an abnormal drop in transaction volumes. Furthermore, this paper will try to determine whether a …

Evaluating The Impact Of Streaming Service Subscriber Acquisition Strategies In India On Firm Value: An Event Study Analysis, Ajitha Anand

CMC Senior Theses

For streaming service providers who are reaching a plateau in subscriber growth in the western market, India presents a rich opportunity for subscriber acquisition. However, the three major streaming service providers, Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, and Disney+Hotstar, have faced challenges growing and sustaining a strong subscriber base in India. This thesis offers three contributions. First, I explain and categorize the approaches of these providers from 2016 to 2022. Second, using event study methodology and the Fama-French Five factor model, I estimate the effect of India-related SVOD press releases on firm returns. Third, I estimate the impact that each firm’s announcements …

Balance Sheet Strength: A Retrospective Analysis Of Corporate Liquidity And Solvency And Firm Stock Returns, Andrew Wraith

CMC Senior Theses

The onset COVID-19 Pandemic caused rippling effects throughout the global economy. Social distancing and stay at home orders shifted consumer demand, as the firmwide impact of these same policies led to supply chain shortages. The COVID-19 Pandemic induced a recession in 2020 that was unique from all others in US history. Throughout the beginning months of the Pandemic, firms rushed to raise debt, equity, and lines of credit, as public financing markets experienced increased volatility. How did the markets adapt to this sudden change? I examine the effect on stock returns of firmwide Balance Sheet strength as it changed throughout …

Media Merger Madness: An Event Study Analyzing Acquiror Returns In Media & Entertainment, Samuel Johnson

CMC Senior Theses

Utilizing an event study methodology, this paper studies the effect that mergers and acquisitions (M&A) announcements have on media acquirors’ stock returns. This study also examines the effect that various characteristics of the target and acquiror have on acquirors’ returns. These characteristics include: location of the acquired company, year of the acquisition, industry of the acquired company, price of the acquired company, size of the acquiror, and serial acquiror status of the acquiror. My findings are consistent with previous literature that find that, in a short-term event window surrounding the announcement of a merger or acquisition, acquirors experience returns that …

The Threat Of Activist Intervention: A Determinant Of 8-K Disclosure For Industrial Companies, Audrey Guilloteau

CMC Senior Theses

In the face of an activist threat, management may be inclined to provide additional disclosure to discourage potential intervention. This paper constructs an empirical model to measure the threat of activism and voluntary disclosure using a data set of 92 industrials focused activist events from 2008 to 2019. Propensity score matching is used to identify close peer firms that experience a threat of activism at the time a campaign is announced. Results from a difference in differences analysis indicate that firms targeted by hedge fund activists provide additional disclosure in the two-year period following the campaign announcement, as seen through …

The Supplier Shield: Covid-19 Effects On Suppliers Of Highly Affected Industries, Maisy Mills

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effect Covid-19 has on hard-hit industries and their suppliers. By looking at the widening of credit spreads on corporate bonds, a shield can be observed through the disproportionate way Covid affects hard-hit companies compared to their suppliers. The dataset looks specifically at three highly affected industries which are accommodation, air transportation, and full-service restaurants. This paper runs a linear regression that looks at the effect that being one of the main 3 frontline industries has on credit spreads of corporate bonds versus that from being a supplier of these industries. The regression highlights the effects that …

An Analysis Of Impacts Of Covid-19 On Salary Cap Allocation And Performance In The National Football League, Abai Houser

CMC Senior Theses

Professional sports are one of the most successful industries in the world. The live spectacle and in-person nature make sporting events a unique and individual experience. COVID-19 shifted how athletic events were operated, financed, and viewed, thereby changing leagues as well. The National Football League was one of the last sports to start its season during 2019 and 2020, setting the stage as the only league to not isolate its players in a safe operating space. This paper studies the effects of COVID-19 on the salary cap management of teams after the pandemic. The findings suggest that financial metrics analyzed …

Don’T Get Screwed: What Factors Determine The Inclusion Of J. Crew Blockers?, Michael Sill

CMC Senior Theses

A “J. Crew Maneuver” is a type of collateral-stripping event that transfers the value of a nearly insolvent company from the lender to the borrower. This concept matters to lenders because it exposes them to significant downside risk through the loss of hundreds of millions of pledged collateral. While credit analysts and debt lawyers have commented on the importance of preserving creditor value ex ante through lender-protective clauses embedded within debt documents, this paper breaks ground on empirically studying the determinants of these protective clauses known as “J. Crew Blockers”. I hypothesize that private equity backing, a contractionary credit environment, …

Zoom In, Class Out: An Event Study On Publicly Traded Ed Tech Firm Valuations During Covid-19, Matiss Ozols

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines how publicly traded Ed Tech firms reacted to negative announcements regarding COVID-19. Using an event study method, I document how an international portfolio of Ed Tech firms react across multiple event windows. The results show that Ed Tech firms reacted positively to the announcement of the first US death and negatively to the World Health Organization’s declaration that COVID-19 was a pandemic. Additionally, differences in geographical location did not impact cumulative abnormal returns across event windows. Finally, firm-specific characteristics such as volatility and financial leverage had little or no significance on stock returns.

Financing Method And Abnormal Returns In Corporate Mergers And Acquisitions, Patrick Thomas

CMC Senior Theses

This study analyzes the impact of merger and acquisition financing method on buyer cumulative abnormal returns. The model builds on findings in previous literature by including deal structure variables, company variables, industry variables, time variables, and post-acquisition announcement return data from 2000 to 2018. The analysis does not find a statistically significant relationship between cash plus debt/stock financing and cumulative abnormal returns. However, significant coefficients for buyer and target industry suggest that deal structure varies and ultimately effects cumulative abnormal returns within specific industries. Additionally, significant results for buyer profitability and time variables provide insight on how the financial market …