Assessing The United States Foreign Assistance Activities Impact On Violent Conflicts,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
Assessing The United States Foreign Assistance Activities Impact On Violent Conflicts, Daniel F. Feze
Theses and Dissertations
The Global Fragility Act, H.R.2116 116th Cong. (2019), “directs the Department of State to establish the interagency Global Fragility Initiative to stabilize conflict-affected areas and prevent violence globally, and establishes funds to support such efforts”. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has identified deteriorating economies, weak or illegitimate political institutions, and competition over natural resources as causes of violence, extremism and instability (USAID, 2021). The agency gives priority to mitigating the causes and consequences of violent conflicts, instability and extremism and funds programs and activities to accomplish that (USAID, 2021). With this study, we aim to quantitatively assess …
Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network With Prediction Smoothing And Adversarial Class Thresholds,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network With Prediction Smoothing And Adversarial Class Thresholds, Noah M. Miller
Theses and Dissertations
Using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for image classification for each frame in a video is a very common technique. Unfortunately, CNNs are very brittle and have a tendency to be over confident in their predictions. This can lead to what we will refer to as “flickering,” which is when the predictions between frames jump back and forth between classes. In this paper, new methods are proposed to combat these shortcomings. This paper utilizes a Bayesian CNN which allows for a distribution of outputs on each data point instead of just a point estimate. These distributions are then smoothed over multiple …
Team Air Combat Using Model-Based Reinforcement Learning,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
Team Air Combat Using Model-Based Reinforcement Learning, David A. Mottice
Theses and Dissertations
We formulate the first generalized air combat maneuvering problem (ACMP), called the MvN ACMP, wherein M friendly AUCAVs engage against N enemy AUCAVs, developing a Markov decision process (MDP) model to control the team of M Blue AUCAVs. The MDP model leverages a 5-degree-of-freedom aircraft state transition model and formulates a directed energy weapon capability. Instead, a model-based reinforcement learning approach is adopted wherein an approximate policy iteration algorithmic strategy is implemented to attain high-quality approximate policies relative to a high performing benchmark policy. The ADP algorithm utilizes a multi-layer neural network for the value function approximation regression mechanism. One-versus-one …
A Decision Analysis Framework To Consider Space Congestion In Orbit Selection,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
A Decision Analysis Framework To Consider Space Congestion In Orbit Selection, Anthony J. Correale
Theses and Dissertations
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is becoming more congested, which increases the risk to space missions. Decision makers will need to consider this increase in congestion as an increased risk within their mission engineering process. This thesis proposes a methodology to create and implement a value structure that quantitatively scores a range of orbits based on congestion factors of each orbit and how well each orbit meets mission requirements. This thesis demonstrates this methodology on a set of circular LEO orbits defined by altitude and inclination, and scores this illustrative scenario based on notional mission measures and expected number of encounters …
Applying Models Of Circadian Stimulus To Explore Ideal Lighting Configurations,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
Applying Models Of Circadian Stimulus To Explore Ideal Lighting Configurations, Alexander J. Price
Theses and Dissertations
Increased levels of time are spent indoors, decreasing human interaction with nature and degrading photoentrainment, the synchronization of circadian rhythms with daylight variation. Military imagery analysts, among other professionals, are required to work in low light level environments to limit power consumption or increase contrast on display screens to improve detail detection. Insufficient exposure to light in these environments results in inadequate photoentrainment which is associated with degraded alertness and negative health effects. Recent research has shown that both the illuminance (i.e., perceived intensity) and wavelength of light affect photoentrainment. Simultaneously, modern lighting technologies have improved our ability to construct …
The Impact Of Visual Feedback And Control Configuration On Pilot-Aircraft Interface Using Head Tracking Technology,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
The Impact Of Visual Feedback And Control Configuration On Pilot-Aircraft Interface Using Head Tracking Technology, Christopher M. Arnold
Theses and Dissertations
Traditional control mechanisms restrict human input on the displays in 5th generation aircraft. This research explored methods for enhancing pilot interaction with large, information dense cockpit displays; specifically, the effects of visual feedback and control button configuration when augmenting cursor control with head tracking technology. Previous studies demonstrated that head tracking can be combined with traditional cursor control to decrease selection times but can increase pilot mental and physical workload. A human subject experiment was performed to evaluate two control button configurations and three visual feedback conditions. A Fitts Law analysis was performed to create predictive models of selection time …
Predicting Tf33-Pw-100a Engine Failures Due To Oil Issues Using Survival Analyses,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
Predicting Tf33-Pw-100a Engine Failures Due To Oil Issues Using Survival Analyses, Anna M. Davis
Theses and Dissertations
In 2007, the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Sustainment pushed for the need to transition to a Condition Based Maintenance Plus (CBM ) initiative for weapon systems in the U.S. Department of Defense. The CBM initiative can help increase aircraft availability (AA) for the United States Air Force. There are many reasons where AA can be affected but one such issue is engine availability primarily due to oil issues. Within the CBM perspective, this study examines the risk of a jet engine failure due to an oil issue and attempts to predict an engines time until next …
A Proposed Mission Assurance Framework For University Cubesat Programs,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
A Proposed Mission Assurance Framework For University Cubesat Programs, Mitchell R. Thomas
Theses and Dissertations
The low cost, small form factor, and use of Commercial-Off-The-Shelf components make CubeSats an ideal platform for university use given their unique constraints. Since 2000, roughly 55% of CubeSats developed by universities fail to meet mission goals. Mission assurance, which is used to increase confidence in mission success, is based around traditional government programs, and does not provide an adequate road map for universities. Leaving them without specific guidance in tailoring mission assurance activities to operate within their constraints. This paper adapts these traditional practices to develop a baseline mission assurance framework for university CubeSat programs.
Analysis Of Container Shipments For Ustranscom,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
Analysis Of Container Shipments For Ustranscom, John N. Campos Y Campos
Theses and Dissertations
USTRANSCOM (United States Transportation Command) sends containers to various overseas destinations, mainly commercial container shipping companies. Delivering the containers to the destinations on time is important to support the United States (US) Forces deployed in foreign countries. This study analyzes container shipment records for two years from 2019 to 2021 and prepares insights for USTRANSCOM. This study utilizes descriptive statistics, data visualization, and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). According to the records, almost half of the containers (41.25%) were delivered late for one day or longer. The container with the longest delay took 408 days. Major reasons for delays included …
Screening Heuristics For The Evaluation Of Covert Network Node Insertion Scenarios,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
Screening Heuristics For The Evaluation Of Covert Network Node Insertion Scenarios, Andrew E. Pekarek
Theses and Dissertations
The majority of research on covert networks uses social network analysis (SNA) to determine critical members of the network to either kill or capture for the purpose of network destabilization. This thesis takes the opposite approach and evaluates potential scenarios for inserting an agent into a covert network for information gathering purposes or future disruption operations. Due to the substantial number of potential insertion scenarios in a large network, this research proposes three screening heuristics that leverage SNA measures to reduce the solution space before applying a simple search heuristic.
Simulating Autonomous Cruise Missile Swarm Behaviors In An Anti-Access Area Denial (A2ad) Environment,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
Simulating Autonomous Cruise Missile Swarm Behaviors In An Anti-Access Area Denial (A2ad) Environment, Kyle W. Goggins
Theses and Dissertations
The increasingly sophisticated anti-access area denial (A2AD) threat imposed by the modern integrated air defense system (IADS), coupled with the decreasingly potent advantage provided by high-end stealth platforms, has prompted Air Force senior leaders to invest in radically changing the nature of air power for the year 2030 and beyond. A prominent element of this new vision is weapon swarming, which aims to address this challenge by overwhelming the IADS with huge numbers of low-cost, attritable aerial assets emboldened by autonomous capabilities. This research proposes a framework for classifying the different levels of autonomous capability along three independent dimensions—namely ability …
Analysis Of The Perspective On Syrian Refugees By Neighboring Countries,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
Analysis Of The Perspective On Syrian Refugees By Neighboring Countries, Norma Ghanem
Theses and Dissertations
Mass migration destabilizes neighboring states, opening the way for fragile state exploitation by enemies, including those that could undermine U.S. national interests. This study investigates an area of the Levant region, specifically countries neighboring Syria, and analyzes their perspective on Syrian refugees for the time frame of 1 June 2019 - 30 June 2020. This analysis may assist in forming policy and creating strategies to address refugee related issues, both domestic and international. There are three main questions addressed. The first inspects dominant refugee framing, the second explores sentiment (dis)similarity within each country and across countries, and the third investigates …
Analysis Of Generalized Artificial Intelligence Potential Through Reinforcement And Deep Reinforcement Learning Approaches,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
Analysis Of Generalized Artificial Intelligence Potential Through Reinforcement And Deep Reinforcement Learning Approaches, Jonathan Turner
Theses and Dissertations
Artificial Intelligence is the next competitive domain; the first nation to develop human level artificial intelligence will have an impact similar to the development of the atomic bomb. To maintain the security of the United States and her people, the Department of Defense has funded research into the development of artificial intelligence and its applications. This research uses reinforcement learning and deep reinforcement learning methods as proxies for current and future artificial intelligence agents and to assess potential issues in development. Agent performance were compared across two games and one excursion: Cargo Loading, Tower of Hanoi, and Knapsack Problem, respectively. …
Identifying Characteristics For Success Of Robotic Process Automations,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
Identifying Characteristics For Success Of Robotic Process Automations, Charles M. Unkrich
Theses and Dissertations
In the pursuit of digital transformation, the Air Force creates digital airmen. Digital airmen are robotic process automations designed to eliminate the repetitive high-volume low-cognitive tasks that absorb so much of our Airmen's time. The automation product results in more time to focus on tasks that machines cannot sufficiently perform data analytics and improving the Air Force's informed decision-making. This research investigates the assessment of potential automation cases to ensure that we choose viable tasks for automation and applies multivariate analysis to determine which factors indicate successful projects. The data is insufficient to provide significant insights.
Evaluating The Military Medical Evacuation Dispatching And Delivery Problem Via Simulation And Self-Exciting Hawkes Process,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
Evaluating The Military Medical Evacuation Dispatching And Delivery Problem Via Simulation And Self-Exciting Hawkes Process, Virbon B. Frial
Theses and Dissertations
The location, allocation, and utilization of military medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) resources significantly impact the quality and timeliness of medical care to injured troops. In 2009, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates introduced the Golden Hour mandate that entails the evacuation of critically-injured troops to military treatment facilities (MTFs) within an hour to prevent further complications. To develop high-quality policies that improve MEDEVAC system performance, several papers in the current literature assume that MTFs have both the capacity and capability of treating any patient, regardless of the type of injury. However, these assumptions are unrealistic when conducting high-intensity operations. While acknowledging MTF …
A Thematic And Reference Analysis Of Touchless Technologies,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
A Thematic And Reference Analysis Of Touchless Technologies, Eric R. Curia
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research is to explore the utility and current state of touchless technologies. Five categories of technologies are identified as a result of collecting and reviewing literature: facial/biometric recognition, gesture recognition, touchless sensing, personal devices, and voice recognition. A thematic analysis was conducted to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the five categories. A reference analysis was also conducted to determine the similarities between articles in each category. Touchless sensing showed to have the most advantages and least similar references. Gesture recognition was the opposite. Comparing analyses shows more reliable technology types are more beneficial and diverse.
Game Theory Framework To Evaluate Nuclear Deterrence,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
Game Theory Framework To Evaluate Nuclear Deterrence, Michael A. Cevallos
Theses and Dissertations
This research game theory framework evaluates the resilience of nuclear deterrence options between two players. We use lexicographic prioritization to value four priorities of political, military, economic, and civilian casualties. The value order may be varied. We demonstrate our approach with six player choices of no nuclear strike, demonstration, counterforce, tactical military, economic, or countervalue strike. We use game theory to construct and analyze the resulting damage matrix. We conclude that credible deterrence requires having at least equivalent offensive damage capabilities.
The Cyber Wargame Commodity Course Of Action Automated Analysis Method,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
The Cyber Wargame Commodity Course Of Action Automated Analysis Method, Alex Hoffendahl
Theses and Dissertations
In the modern operational landscape, strategic decisions are made and executed, under uncertain conditions, with many potential constraints and limited information. The end goal of these decisions is to minimize and mitigate the effect of adversarial threats, which may or may not act in line with previous assumptions. Wargaming is a powerful tool that allows for the practical implementation of theoretical knowledge into real-world scenarios, enhancing decision-makers critical thinking and problem solving skills. Furthermore, including cyber-effects in a wargame leads to a broader decision scope for an entire operation. This research aims to enhance the analytical capabilities and overall usability …
Airworthiness Decision Factors In The Us Air Force,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
Airworthiness Decision Factors In The Us Air Force, Derek N. Dennis
Theses and Dissertations
There are multiple airworthiness (AW) certification paths for aircraft platforms and their modifications. Specifically, military commercial derivative aircraft (MCDA) have a unique opportunity to pursue either FAA certification, military certification or a combination of both. Policy tells MCDA programs to pursue FAA certification to the maximum extent possible, however, the policy lacks clarity regarding where that extent ends. This concept of extent encompasses multiple factors and the choice of an AW basis is a complex decision. Under ideal conditions the decision maker, the program manager, has the experience and insight to support their decision, however, this is not always the …
Accelerating Transition To Production By Manufacturing Readiness Focus During Development,
2022
Air Force Institute of Technology
Accelerating Transition To Production By Manufacturing Readiness Focus During Development, William K. Duncan
Theses and Dissertations
The Department of Defense has adopted management tools, such as Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs), which seek to address issues that have delayed the transition to production and delivery of deployment-ready systems. The MRL scale and assessment process institutes periodic reviews of products during the acquisition process. Specifically, MRLs provide a scale to measure, and importantly communicate, progress by evaluating and summarizing multiple aspects of product maturity. Unfortunately, issues are often identified during the periodic assessments which, if addressed earlier, would have further streamlined product delivery. The current research applies Model Based System Engineering tools to analyze and refine organizational structures …
