Integration Of Models For Low Carbon Economy,
2014
University of Twente
Integration Of Models For Low Carbon Economy, Getachew F. Belete, Alexey Voinov
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Designing the transition to low carbon economy is a very complex task that touches upon a wide variety of climate-energy-economic systems. We need to explore the various possible climate mitigation scenarios at different temporal and spatial scales. However, due to the diversity of the involved disciplines it is difficult to find one complete and unified modeling approach that works equally well in all those different domains. As a result we have to select 'appropriate' models, which represent only specific aspects of the scenarios and assemble them 'coherently'. In this research we have identified some challenges in integrating multidisciplinary models; and …
Enhancing The Policy Relevance Of Scenarios Through A Dynamic Analytical Approach,
2014
Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, Cired
Enhancing The Policy Relevance Of Scenarios Through A Dynamic Analytical Approach, Céline Guivarch, Vanessa Schweizer, Julia Rozenberg
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
We present a new dynamic analytical approach for studying scenarios produced by an integrated assessment {IA) model. Our approach involves the analysis of a large number of scenarios, which can better address three principal shortcomings of how uncertainty is traditionally handled in IA scenario studies. The shortcomings are all a result of the prevailing practice of investigating a small number of scenarios and include (1) the ad hoc nature of exploring vast socioeconomic uncertainties with only a small number of scenarios; (2) the conventional representation of alternative scenario typologies as "parallel universes• or "diverging universes•, which provide little insight on …
Global Sensitivity Analysis Of Key Parameters In A Process-Based Sugarcane Growth Model - A Bayesian Approach,
2014
James Cook University
Global Sensitivity Analysis Of Key Parameters In A Process-Based Sugarcane Growth Model - A Bayesian Approach, Justin Sexton, Yvette Everingham
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
While several statistical methods are available to analyse model sensitivity, their application to complex process-based models is often impractical due to the large number of simulation runs required. A Bayesian approach to global sensitivity analysis can greatly reduce the number of simulation runs required by building an emulator of the model which is less computationally demanding. A Gaussian Emulation Machine (GEM) was used to efficiently assess the sensitivity of key agronomic outputs from the APSIM-Sugar crop model to influential input parameters. The sensitivity of simulated biomass and sucrose at harvest was assessed on 14 parameters representing varietal differences and growth …
Hypothesis Testing For Management: Evolving And Answering Closed Questions Using Multiobjective Visualization,
2014
University of Colorado Boulder
Hypothesis Testing For Management: Evolving And Answering Closed Questions Using Multiobjective Visualization, Joseph Kasprzyk, Joseph Guillaume, Joshua Kollat, Chris Danilo
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In order to use models to understand deeply uncertain future conditions, managers must be able to pose and test hypotheses about their management problems. In Iterative Closed Question Methodology (ICQM), a series of closed questions are used to structure thinking about hypotheses while looking beyond a problem's existing modeling representation. Our research is exploring how ICQM can contribute to a framework called Many Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM), which uses multiobjective optimization and ensembles of uncertain future states of the world to create and evaluate robust solutions for environmental management. A visualization software tool; AeroVis, has greatly aided implementation of …
Ontology Mapping In Semantic Time Series Processing In Climate Change Prediction,
2014
Austrian Institute of Technology
Ontology Mapping In Semantic Time Series Processing In Climate Change Prediction, Bojan Božić, Jan Peters-Anders, Gerald Schimak
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In today's time series processing there is more and more a need for addressing diverse user groups interested in a specific domain with appropriate user tailored time series data. The complexity of time series (e.g. involved data from different data sources and/or domains, visualization and representation, etc.) is growing rapidly. As a consequence, it means that users need to find a path through the jungle of time series data. After we have presented our concepts for semantic time series filtering and enrichment of time series with meta-information and annotations (Božić et al., 2012), we are now going to present a …
Metadata Extraction Using Semantic And Natural Language Processing Techniques,
2014
Wageningen University and Research Centre
Metadata Extraction Using Semantic And Natural Language Processing Techniques, Rob Knapen, Thomas Hüsing, Klaus Jacob, Yke Van Randen, Stefan Reis, Onno Roosenschoon, Sander Janssen
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The World Wide Web and related technologies are playing an increasing role in the field of Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM). Model integration software frameworks are more and more becoming web-enabled. The technologies and standards of the Web are used to access and run simulation models remotely (known as the Web of models) and are considered for enabling interoperability across model integration frameworks. Furthermore there is a growing number of local and global initiatives to provide open access to environmental data (Web of data) that can potentially be used as input for the scientific models. The availability of descriptive information of …
Improved Implicit Stochastic Optimization Technique For Multireservoir Water Systems Under Drought Conditions,
2014
University of Cagliari
Improved Implicit Stochastic Optimization Technique For Multireservoir Water Systems Under Drought Conditions, Andrea Sulis
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Drought is a creeping phenomenon, making its onset and end difficult to determine. Damages from droughts can exceed those resulting from any other natural hazard, although it is difficult to assign a monetary value to them. In the Mediterranean area a severe drought period occurred over the years 2000-2002 and economic losses from that drought exceeded 250 million euros in Sardinia (Italy) (source: ENAS Regional Water Authority). Currently, technological developments and environmental modelling tools are improving our ability to more effectively manage water supply systems. Models can provide decision makers with better and more timely data and information. In this …
Modelling Biofilm Based Technologies With Activated Sludge Unit Processes: A Short Cut To Performance Simulation?,
2014
NUI Galway
Modelling Biofilm Based Technologies With Activated Sludge Unit Processes: A Short Cut To Performance Simulation?, Noella Jones, Maebh Grace, Eoghan Clifford
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Biofilm-based passive aeration systems (PAS) have attracted recent attention as alternative, energy efficient and low maintenance technologies in the wastewater sector. However the modelling of biofilm-based PAS offers unique challenges for modellers, particularly where new technologies are not easily simulated using existing commercial modelling software. However, if the modeller is concerned only with simulating "macro" plant performance (e.g. key effluent concentrations and cycle analysis) it may be possible to efficiently model these technologies using "surrogate" unit process systems (e.g. using an activated sludge process to model a biofilm process). The pumped flow biofilm reactor (PFBR); a batch biofilm technology, is …
Development Of A Decision Support Tool To Allocate Irrigation Water On Competitive Basis: Application To Kathiraveli Village, Sri Lanka,
2014
Engineers Without Borders
Development Of A Decision Support Tool To Allocate Irrigation Water On Competitive Basis: Application To Kathiraveli Village, Sri Lanka, Tom Le Cerf, Muhammed A. Bhuiyan
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
This paper focuses specifically on the irrigation field and water supply tanks for ways to improve efficiency of water use and increase the resilience to climatic variability. The purpose of this paper is to develop an excel-based water balance model that will allow the maximum cropping area be planted in the upcoming agricultural season. The model consists of three modules: a crop water requirement calculator that allows the water requirements of specific crops to be compared, a water tank balance model, and a model which simulates the storage in the permanent wetland attached to the irrigation tank. The hydrological computation …
Linking A Modified Epic-Based Plant Growth Model (Upgm) With A Component-Based Watershed Model (Ages-W),
2014
USDA-ARS-NPA, Agricultural Systems Research Unit
Linking A Modified Epic-Based Plant Growth Model (Upgm) With A Component-Based Watershed Model (Ages-W), Gregory S. Mcmaster, James C. Ascough Ii, Debora A. Edmunds, Olaf David, Larry E. Wagner, Fred A. Fox, Robert H. Erskine, Holm Kipka, Timothy R. Green
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Agricultural models and decision support systems (DSS) for assessing water use and management are increasingly being applied to diverse geographic regions at different scales. This requires models that can simulate different crops, however, very few plant growth models are available that "easily" can simulate the growth of many common and alternative crops. One option available is a suite of plant growth models based on the original plant growth model used in EPIC (Erosion Productivity Index Calculator). Various versions of the original EPIC plant growth model have been used in other agroecosystem models such as the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS), …
Agroecosystem-Watershed (Ages-W) Model Delineation And Scaling,
2014
U.S. Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Service
Agroecosystem-Watershed (Ages-W) Model Delineation And Scaling, Timothy R. Green, Robert H. Erskine, James C. Ascough Ii, Bruce Vandenberg, Björn Pfennig, Holm Kipka, Olaf David, Micheal L. Coleman
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Water movement and storage within an agricultural watershed can be simulated at different spatial resolutions of land areas or hydrological response units (HRUs). Interactions between HRUs in space and time vary with the HRU sizes, such that natural scaling relationships are confounded with the simulation scales. Scaling concepts can be tested using the AgroEcoSystem Watershed (AgES-W) model with different resolutions of HRUs. Here, we delineated a 56-ha agricultural watershed in northern Colorado, USA farmed primarily under a wheat-fallow rotation. Factors used to distinguish HRUs included topography (surface flow paths), land use (crop strips and native grass), and mapped soil units …
Dynamic Feedback Between Land Use And Hydrology For Ecosystem Services Assessment,
2014
UNESCO-IHE Institute of Water Education
Dynamic Feedback Between Land Use And Hydrology For Ecosystem Services Assessment, Seleshi Getahun Yalew, Tobias Pilz, Christian Schweitzer, Stefan Liersch, Johannes Van Der Kwast, Marloes L. Mul, Ann Van Griensven, Pieter Van Der Zaag
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Ecosystem services assessment requires an integrated approach, as it is influenced by elements such as climate, hydrology and socio-economics, which in turn influence each other. However, there are few studies that integrate these elements in order to assess ecosystem services. Absence of integrated approach to modelling hydrological and land-use changes, for instance, often oversights the dynamic feedback between the two processes. Dynamic changes in land-use should be fed into hydrological models and vice-versa at each time-step for a more realistic representation. In this study, this approach is demonstrated with a case study of the uThukela catchment, South Africa. There is …
Challenges/Advances In Distributed Watershed Modeling: A Review And Application Of The Agroecosystem-Watershed (Ages-W) Model,
2014
USDA-ARS-NPA, Agricultural Systems Research Unit
Challenges/Advances In Distributed Watershed Modeling: A Review And Application Of The Agroecosystem-Watershed (Ages-W) Model, James C. Ascough Ii, Timothy R. Green, Olaf David, Holm Kipka, Gregory S. Mcmaster, Manfred Fink, Peter Krause, Sven Kralisch
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Progress in the understanding of physical, chemical, and biological processes influencing water quality, coupled with advances in the collection and analysis of hydrologic data, provide opportunities for significant innovations in the manner and level with which watershed-scale processes may be quantified and modeled. This paper first provides a brief review of current challenges and advances in distributed watershed modeling including quantifying and coping with the uncertainty, data availability, influence of data resolution and scaling issues, and the use of environmental modeling frameworks that help maintain model modularity, reusability, and interoperability (or compatibility). Important findings and observed trends from this work …
A Decision Support System Approach For Identifying Poliutant Source For Optimization Of Beneficial Management Practices Scenario Modelling In Lake Winnipeg Watersheds,
2014
Environment Canada
A Decision Support System Approach For Identifying Poliutant Source For Optimization Of Beneficial Management Practices Scenario Modelling In Lake Winnipeg Watersheds, Isaac Wong, Luis Leon, Jason Vanrobaeys, Craig Mccrimmon, Phil Fong
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) results can be used to source trace loading "hotspots• for optimally locating beneficial management practices (BMP). It is possible to trace upstream and compute the relative contribution of each sub-basin to a point of interest, accounting for in-stream processes, reservoirs and point sources. A decision support system (DSS) framework was developed to run SWAT, perform the otherwise tedious process of source tracing "hotspots" and to optimize BMP locations. The "Crop to Hay- land use change BMP scenario was applied in an attempt to reduce annual loadings of total phosphorus (TP) for three Lake …
Assessment Of Policies For Low-Carbon Agriculture By Means Of Multi-Agent Simulation,
2014
Universität Hohenheim
Assessment Of Policies For Low-Carbon Agriculture By Means Of Multi-Agent Simulation, Eygeny Latynskiy, Thomas Berger, Christian Troost
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Agriculture and agriculture-inflicted land use change is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing excessive deforestation and intensification of agricultural land use and consequently reducing associated GHG emissions is an important pathway of transition to a global low-carbon economy. Adoption of low-carbon agricultural systems and practices requires setting appropriate economic incentives for land users through smart policy instruments. For effective implementation of such instruments integrated ex-ante policy assessments are crucial. In this article we discuss and illustrate the benefits and potentials of applying multi-agent system models for the assessment of low-carbon policies and technologies. As an empirical example …
Empirical Agent-Based Modelling Of Everyday ProEnvironmental Behaviours At Work,
2014
The James Hutton Institute
Empirical Agent-Based Modelling Of Everyday ProEnvironmental Behaviours At Work, Gary Polhill, Tony Craig, Amparo Alonso-Betanzos, Noelia Sanchez-Maroño, Óscar Fontenla-Romero, Adina Dumitru, Mirilia Bonnes, Marini Bonaiuto, Giuseppe Carrus, Ferdinando Fornara, Fridanna Maricchiolo, Linda Steg, Angela Ruepert, Kees Kaizer, Ricardo García-Mira
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
We report on agent-based modelling work in the LOCAW project (Low Carbon at Work: Modelling Agents and Organisations to Achieve Transition to a Low Carbon Europe). The project explored the effectiveness of various backcasting scenarios conducted with case study organisations in bringing about pro-environmental change in the workforce in the domains of transport, energy use and waste. The model used qualitative representations of workspaces in formalising each scenario, and decision trees learned from questionnaire responses to represent decision-making. We describe the process by which the decision trees were constructed, noting that the use of decision trees in agent-based models requires …
Understanding Regime Shift In Land Systems With System Dynamics,
2014
Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies
Understanding Regime Shift In Land Systems With System Dynamics, Zhanli Sun, Daniel Müller
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Land system change has major consequences for climate change, biodiversity and ecosystem services, and is central to the debate of sustainable development. Land policies aimed at guiding land system towards sustainable pathways need to be informed by better understanding of land system change, and often rely on the forecasting of future land system change. For example, initiatives of Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) provide financial incentives to developing countries in tropical regions in exchange for a reduction of carbon emission from land system compared to business-as-usual. REDD+ schemes therefore rely on predictions of future land use without …
Linking Governance Storylines With The D-Expanse Model To Explore The Power System Transition Pathways,
2014
University College London, UCL Energy Institute
Linking Governance Storylines With The D-Expanse Model To Explore The Power System Transition Pathways, Evelina Trutnevyte
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In 2008 United Kingdom adopted an ambitious target to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, compared to the levels of 1990. This is an unprecedented challenge to the power sector and multiple energy-environment-economic modeling activities have been undertaken to inform the energy policy to deliver this low-carbon transition. The role of governance, choices and strategies of the key actors is increasingly acknowledged as an influential determinant of such transition, but traditional energy-environment-economic models can hardly analyze these aspects. This paper proposes a methodological approach to integrating the governance aspects into energy-environment-economic modeling. In the Realizing Transition Pathways …
Innovative Techniques For Quantitative Scenarios In Energy And Environmental Research: A Review,
2014
University College London, UCL Energy Institute
Innovative Techniques For Quantitative Scenarios In Energy And Environmental Research: A Review, Evelina Trutnevyte, Célene Guivarch
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Quantitative scenarios form the core of the future analysis in the energy, climate and other environment-related fields. A growing number of researchers worldwide start using innovative techniques for developing, analysing and choosing quantitative scenarios. Some of these techniques involve a large number of scenarios. Different rationales motivate these strands of research: better system understanding, uncertainty analysis, development of robust strategies, selection of a small set of scenarios, ability to link storylines with quantitative scenarios and other. These techniques are argued to provide both novel research insights and policy-relevant scenario exercises. A workshop, organised by UCL Energy Institute and Cired, on …
Qualitative Reasoning Models To Summarize And Compare Metapopulation Theories,
2014
University of Brasilia
Qualitative Reasoning Models To Summarize And Compare Metapopulation Theories, Isabella Gontijo Sá-Leão, Adriano Souza, Fernando Goulart, Paulo Salles
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
A better understanding of population dynamics is needed in the face of accelerating changes and modifications of natural landscapes. Qualitative Reasoning based models have been considered as a tool for integration and exploration of conceptual knowledge in ecological systems and population dynamics. The objective of the present work is to develop a set of qualitative models in order to capture, formalize, summarize, and compare knowledge about different approaches to metapopulation theory. Three types of approaches were modelled: 1) the classical concepts developed by Levins; 2) Pulliam's view on source and sink populations; and 3) an integrated model of conservation, based …
