Hydraulic Engineering Commons^™

Practical Identifiability Analysis Of Environmental Models, Stefano Marsili-Libelli, Michael B. Beck, Philip Brunner, Barry Croke, Joseph Guillaume, Anthony Jakeman, John Jakeman, Karel Keesman, Hans Stigter

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Identifiability of a system model can be considered as the extent to which one can capture its parameter values from observational data and other prior knowledge of the system. Identifiability must be considered in context so that the objectives of the modelling must also be taken into account in its interpretation. A model may be identifiable for certain objective functions but not others; its identifiability may depend not just on the model structure but also on the level and type of noise, and may even not be identifiable when there is no noise on the observational data. Context also means …

Predicting Citation Counts Of Environmental Modelling Papers, Barbara J. Robson, Aurélie Mousquès

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We assessed all papers published in two key environmental modelling journals in 2008 to determine the degree to which the citation counts of the papers could be predicted without considering the paper's quality. We applied both random forests and general additive models to predict citation counts using a range of easily quantified or categorised characteristics of the papers as covariates. The more highly cited papers were, on average, longer, had longer reference lists, had more authors, were more likely to have been published in Environmental Modelling and Software and less likely to include differential or integral equations than papers with …

A Modeling Framework For Oceanic Basins Under Double Exposure, Christian Mullon, Gorka Merino, Jose Fernandez, William Cheung, Manuel Barange

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Oceans stand under double exposure to global warming and of economic globalization. This generates anxieties and contributes to the need for specific governance. A first expression lies in the needs for integrated representations allowing a collaborative development of scenarios. Main challenge here lies in finding, in these representations, a balance between realism and abstraction admissible by all participants.

In this talk, we present modeling framework that has been designed to build scenarios about the possible futures of an oceanic basin. The principle lies in using a network model in which nodes correspond to fish stocks, specialized fleets, farming systems, trade …

Alces Online: Web-Delivered Scenario Analysis To Inform Sustainable Land-Use Decisions, Matthew Carlson, Brad Stelfox, Noah Purves-Smith, Justin Straker, Shanti Berryman, Tim Barker, Barry Wilson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Simulation models are yet to reach their potential to inform environmental sustainability, in part due to inaccessibility. ALCES Online (www.online.alces.ca) addresses this deficiency through web-delivery of high quality scenario analysis to individuals lacking a modeling background. The simulator is available for the province of Alberta, Canada, and efforts are underway to create versions for additional jurisdictions. The underlying scenario analysis is holistic through incorporation of a diverse set of drivers and indicators. Simulated land uses include energy, agriculture, mining, forestry, and human settlements; natural drivers such as fire are also included. Environmental and socioeconomic consequences are conveyed by tracking indicators …

Lidar And Hyperspectral Data For Landscape And Vegetation Classification And Monitoring, Ake Sivertun, Katharina Zöphel, Simon Ahlberg

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Mapping of forest areas and other landscapes as to combine information about ground structures, topography as well as other natural and man-made features can be made with help of Li- DAR (Elmqvist, M. 2001). The result can be used for planning military and civil missions and analysis of the possibility to drive though areas with bad or no roads (Sivertun & Gumos 2006) as well as for management of natural recourses and for example in physical planning. By combining LiDAR and other remotely sensed data it is possible to make use of the different advantages the different sensors provides. In …

The Value Of Seasonal Productivity Forecasting In Biodiesel Plans, Giulia Fiorese, Giorgio Guariso

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Crop productivity is commonly assumed as a deterministic function when developing agricultural plans. Actual data prove however that, even for the same soil at the same location, crop productivity can be better interpreted as a random variable due to the meteorological conditions of the specific year. For the production of biodiesel, crops are easily substitutable and the farmer can chose every year between various alternatives. Without information on the seasonal meteorology, the farmers select the crop to cultivate mainly on the basis of the expected productivity. However, changes in the meteorological situation may result in a reduction in crop profitability. …

W(H)Ither The Oracle? Cognitive Biases And Other Human Challenges Of Integrated Environmental Modeling, Pierre D. Glynn

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) can organize and increase our knowledge of the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control the quality of our environments. Human behavior, however, must be taken into account. Human biases/heuristics reflect adaptation over our evolutionary past to frequently experienced situations that affected our survival and that provided sharply distinguished feedbacks at the level of the individual. Unfortunately, human behavior is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced, less frequently encountered, problems and issues that IEM typically seeks to address in the simulation of natural resources and environments. While seeking inspiration from the prophetic …

Modelling Water And Land Resource Management In Dry Rainfed Areas Of India: Connecting The Environment And Technology To Institutions And Stakeholders, Vasant P. Gandhi

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The dry rainfed areas pose a serious challenge in India due to the environment of scarcity, fragility and adversity of natural resources in these areas, and the high incidence of poverty. The government has undertaken huge programs called watershed development programs in such areas to promote scientific and judicious use of the resources to improve sustainability, incomes, livelihoods. National and international contributions commit about $500 million annually for such programs. However, effective institutional arrangements are lacking and are required to combine scientific approaches with community participation and ownership, especially given the small farm sizes and high populations. This research supported …

Identification Of Spatial And Temporal Patterns Of Australian Daily Rainfall Under A Changing Climate, Tingbao Xu, Barry Croke, Michael F. Hutchinson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Rainfall is a highly variable component of the climate system. There are substantial spatial and temporal variations in the frequency and spatial distribution of rainfall events. Little attention has been paid to the slow but ongoing variations of the spatial patterns of daily rainfall, especially over broad spatial scales. A better understanding of these variations and their long term trends would reduce uncertainty in environmental and natural resource models and improve assessment of ongoing climate change. This study examined the spatial cross-correlations of daily rainfall at 2322 high quality long run rainfall stations across Australia from 1910 to 2011, and …

Complexity Regularized Hydrological Model Selection, Saket Pande, Liselot Arkesteijn, Luis A. Bastidas

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper uses a recently proposed measure of hydrological model complexity in a model selection exercise. It demonstrates that a robust hydrological model is selected by penalizing model complexity while maximizing a model performance measure. This especially holds when limited data is available. here by a robust model, we mean a model that predicts a variable of interest conditioned on future input forcing better than a model that is fitted on limited data. We demonstrate this on a rainfall-runoff model structure, SAC-SMA, using MOPEX data set of Guadalupe river basin.

Geospatial Workflow Process For Modelling Complex Land Use Cover Change, Isaac Kwadwo Nti, Philip Sallis

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The challenge of modelling the ever changing land use cover (LUC) of the earth has resulted in the creation of diverse models to depict these variations. Most of the land use cover change (LUCC) models were developed for either specific projects or locations; therefore, they are not generic. Also, most of the current LUCC models have been applied to only one LUC class which is less complex, e.g. urban growth or at most two LUC classes.

This work investigated existing LUCC models with the aim of finding a generic geospatial workflow process approach for modelling complex LUCC so that the …

Simulating The Sensitivity Of Residential Wildfire Risk To Land Use Policy, Tony Prato, Travis Paveglio, Micheal Hardy

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

An integrated model is used to simulate the sensitivity of expected residential losses from wildfire [E(RLW)]) and growth of the wildland urban interface (WUI) to three land use policies in Flathead County, Montana, during the period 2010–2059. The model accounts for the complex socio-ecological interactions among climate change, economic growth and associated residential development, land use policy, homeowners’ wildfire loss mitigation actions, and forest treatments by various land management agencies. E(RLW) depends on the number of developed residential properties, the total value of residential properties, the probability that parcels containing residential properties burn, the conditional probability of residential wildfire losses, …

Sea Level Rise Effects On Acidic Pollution In A Coastal Acid Sulphate Soil Area, Ngo Dang Phong, Chu Thai Hoanh, To Phuc Tuong, Reiner Wassmann

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Bac Lieu is a coastal province in the Mekong River Delta (MRD), Vietnam. Aside from salinity intrusion from the sea, the province is strongly affected by acidic pollution as 58% of the area (250,000 ha) is overlaid with acid sulphate soil (ASS). Previous studies showed that the eminent sea level rise (SLR) would influence the hydrology and salinity of the canal networks in the province. This study, using the previously validated hydraulic and water quality model CRSAP-ACIDITY (Vietnam River Systems And Plains, coupled with ACIDITY Module), aimed at quantifying impacts of different SLR scenarios (SLR=17, 30, 50, or 75 cm) …

Open Source Map Based Software For Photovoltaic System Layout Design, Daniel P. Ames, Kasem Pinthong, Michael Scott, Rohit Khattar, David Solan, Randy Lee

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper presents a new free and open source GIS-based software package, PVDesktop, for designing large or small photovoltaic (PV) energy production systems with the goal of increasing use of alternative energy. PVDesktop considers numerous factors to better reflect the characteristics of landscape specific to the area including site location, time zone, sun path, nearby weather station data, tilt and azimuth angle of the solar panels, and nearby objects such as trees and buildings that may obstruct or shadow solar radiation over the panels. PVDesktop enables the design of a solar panel layout, assesses the solar shade that could reduce …

Residential Mobility And Model Complexity - An Agent-Based Modelling Experiment On A Small Shrinking Town In Eastern Germany, Carsten M. Buchmann, Nina Schwarz

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Residential mobility is one of the major drivers of urban land use change. For urban planning it is therefore essential to understand patterns of population distribution and residential mobility in cities. Agent-based modelling has been found to be the most suitable method to investigate the complex interplay of processes, including individual location decisions. While numerous of such models have been developed in recent years, the challenge of adequate model complexity is still a hot topic. In this talk we present an agent-based model on residential mobility in the shrinking town Delitzsch in eastern Germany. The model is parameterized by a …

Ocean Acidification And Fisheries - A Bayesian Network Approach To Assessing A Wicked Problem, Russell Richards, Jan-Olaf Meynecke, Oz Sahin, Rachel Tiller, Yaije Liu

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Increased carbon dioxide emissions are driving changes in the chemistry of seawater in a process termed 'ocean acidification' (OA). Globally, this is predicted to impact on coastal fisheries, especially those consisting of calcifying organisms (e.g. mollusks and crustaceans). The impact might also depend on synergistic co-stressors such as a concomitant increase in seawater temperature and the resilience of other biota. However, the framing of OA as a future problem coupled with the complexity of coastal systems means that assessing fisheries vulnerability to OA is characterised by strong variability and uncertainty. It is further characterised by strong socio-economic dimensions given the …

Uncovering Urban System Interrelations Using Land-Use Scenario Modelling, Steffen Lauf, Birgit Kleinschmit, Dagmar Haase

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

For the conservation as well as the improvement in life quality of human beings, today’s political decision makers are challenged to tackle the complex interactions between human activities and the natural environment. In order to better understanding these interactions, we applied a well- validated land-use change model that integrates demographic and residential dynamics, including a preference-driven choice algorithm to enable the simulation of simultaneously occurring growth and shrinkage processes. We introduce 13 scenarios that combine different assumptions based on demographic and economic development, residential preferences, short-range transit accessibility preferences and planning restrictions. They are applied to test the respective effects …

Physically Based Landslide Susceptibility Models With Different Degree Of Complexity: Calibration And Verification, Giuseppe Formetta, Giovanna Capparelli, Riccardo Rigon, Pasquale Versace

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Rainfall induced shallow landslides cause significant damages involving loss of life and properties. Predicting shallow landslide susceptible locations is a complex task that involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geomorphology, statistics. Usually to accomplish this task two main approaches are used: a statistical model or a physically based model.

In this paper, three physically based models for landslide susceptibility analysis were integrated in the Object Modelling System (OMS) and tested in real world applications. Models presented have an increasing degree of complexity. Effects of three different hydrological components connected to the stability model and of model parameters optimization were investigated. …

Modeling Of Urban Planning Actions By Complex Transactions On Semantic 3d City Models, Maximilian Sindram, Thomas H. Kolbe

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Decision support for environmental planning requires the impact analysis of envisaged actions. These actions often are adapted from measures specified in regulations or other legal doc­uments given in natural language. Their realization involves (possibly complex) changes to specific parts of the environment. For example, the energetic retrofitting of a building typically comprises the insulation of the faҫade and replacement of the windows. In general, different actions or combinations of actions can be chosen for the optimization of certain key performance indicators (KPI) like the over­ all energy demand or C0₂ emission of a city district. This requires the assessment …

Using Genetic Algorithms To Fit Species And Habitat Parameters For Modelling The Effect Of Climate Change On Species Distributions With Stochastic Patch Occupancy Models, Gary Polhill, Alessandro Gimona

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Standard approaches to modelling the effect of climate change on species distributions model a direct link between climatic and other biophysical variables and species occupancy. Though these provide a reasonable estimate for the effects of climate change on species distributions in the future, there are a number of issues with these approaches that fail to account for dynamic landscape interactions. For example, the mass occupancy effect means that species may be observed in unsuitable habitat patches surrounding a well-populated area of highly suitable patches. Conversely, a highly suitable area may be too disconnected from other suitable patches to allow long-term …