Asymmetric Forecast Densities For U.S. Macroeconomic Variables From A Gaussian Copula Model Of Cross-Sectional And Serial Dependence, Michael S. Smith, Shaun Vahey
Dec 2015
Asymmetric Forecast Densities For U.S. Macroeconomic Variables From A Gaussian Copula Model Of Cross-Sectional And Serial Dependence, Michael S. Smith, Shaun Vahey
Michael Stanley Smith
Most existing reduced-form macroeconomic multivariate time series models employ elliptical disturbances, so that the forecast densities produced are symmetric. In this paper, we use a copula model with asymmetric margins to produce forecast densities with the scope for severe departures from symmetry. Empirical and skew t distributions are employed for the margins, and a high-dimensional Gaussian copula is used to jointly capture cross-sectional and (multivariate) serial dependence. The copula parameter matrix is given by the correlation matrix of a latent stationary and Markov vector autoregression (VAR). We show that the likelihood can be evaluated efficiently using the unique partial correlations, …
Upgrading Efficiency And Behavior: Electricity Savings From Residential Weatherization Programs, Joshua Graff Zivin, Kevin Novan
Dec 2015
Upgrading Efficiency And Behavior: Electricity Savings From Residential Weatherization Programs, Joshua Graff Zivin, Kevin Novan
Joshua Graff Zivin
No abstract provided.
The Effect Of Population Aging On Economic Growth, The Labor Force And Productivity, David Powell
Dec 2015
The Effect Of Population Aging On Economic Growth, The Labor Force And Productivity, David Powell
David Powell
Population aging is widely assumed to have detrimental effects on economic growth yet there is little empirical evidence about the magnitude of its effects. This paper starts from the observation that many U.S. states have already experienced substantial growth in the size of their older population and much of this growth was predetermined by historical trends in fertility. We use predicted variation in the rate of population aging across U.S. states over the period 1980-2010 to estimate the economic impact of aging on state output per capita. We find that a 10% increase in the fraction of the population ages 60+ decreases …
The Place Of Economics In Russian Identity Debates, Peter Rutland
Dec 2015
The Place Of Economics In Russian Identity Debates, Peter Rutland
Peter Rutland
How economics is used in arguments over national interests and national identity in contemporary Russia.
Does Price Affect The Demand For Information About New Health Technologies? Evidence From A Field Experiment In Nigeria, Edward Okeke, A. V. Chari, Akinfolarin Adepiti
Dec 2015
Does Price Affect The Demand For Information About New Health Technologies? Evidence From A Field Experiment In Nigeria, Edward Okeke, A. V. Chari, Akinfolarin Adepiti
Edward Okeke
We study how pricing subsidies influence the demand for information about a new preventative health technology. We conducted a field experiment in Nigeria where women were offered the opportunity to get screened for cervical cancer (at baseline 2/3 of women had no knowledge of cervical cancer screening). Field staff made house calls to give women information about the test, and also distributed vouchers that randomly varied the price of screening at the point of service. We study the demand for information in this context, and how it interacts with prices. We find an inverse U-shaped relationship between price and the …
Does A Ban On Informal Health Providers Save Lives? Evidence From Malawi, Edward Okeke, Susan Godlonton
Dec 2015
Does A Ban On Informal Health Providers Save Lives? Evidence From Malawi, Edward Okeke, Susan Godlonton
Edward Okeke
Informal health providers ranging from drug vendors to traditional healers account for a large fraction of health care provision in developing countries. They are, however, largely unlicensed and unregulated leading to concern that they provide ineffective and, in some cases, even harmful care. A new and controversial policy tool that has been proposed to alter household health seeking behavior is an outright ban on these informal providers. The theoretical effects of such a ban are ambiguous. In this paper, we study the effect of a ban on informal (traditional) birth attendants imposed by the Malawi government in 2007. To measure …
Disentangling Moral Hazard And Adverse Selection In Private Health Insurance, David Powell, Dana Goldman
Dec 2015
Disentangling Moral Hazard And Adverse Selection In Private Health Insurance, David Powell, Dana Goldman
David Powell
Moral hazard and adverse selection create inefficiencies in private health insurance markets and understanding the relative importance of each factor is critical for policy. We use claims data from a large firm which changed health insurance plan options to isolate moral hazard from plan selection. Using an instrumental variables quantile regression approach, we estimate the differential causal impact of each health insurance plan on the entire distribution of medical expenditures. We account for systematic sample attrition during the sample period by conditioning on a nonseparable sample selection adjustment. Our estimates imply that 54% of the additional medical spending …
Estimating Intensive And Extensive Tax Responsiveness: Do Older Workers Respond To Income Taxes?, Abby Alpert, David Powell
Dec 2015
Estimating Intensive And Extensive Tax Responsiveness: Do Older Workers Respond To Income Taxes?, Abby Alpert, David Powell
David Powell
This paper studies the impact of income taxes on the labor supply decisions of older individuals. We jointly estimate intensive and extensive margin tax elasticities while addressing selection issues that have previously hindered consistent estimation of labor supply effects. We find large and statistically significant labor force participation tax elasticities for the population ages 62-74. We also estimate statistically significant effects on the intensive margin. Modeling two proposed age-targeted tax reforms, our estimates imply substantial scope for increasing labor force participation rates of older individuals through the tax code.
Deny, Deny, Deny, Michael Lewyn
Dec 2015
Deny, Deny, Deny, Michael Lewyn
Michael E Lewyn
Some commentators argue that new housing supply and less restrictive zoning will not reduce housing prices in high-cost cities. This article discusses and critiques their arguments.
A Conceptual Framework For Measuring The Effectiveness Of Green Fiscal Reforms, Gilbert E. Metcalf
Dec 2015
A Conceptual Framework For Measuring The Effectiveness Of Green Fiscal Reforms, Gilbert E. Metcalf
Gilbert E. Metcalf
This paper provides a conceptual framework for assessing the effectiveness (strengths and weaknesses) of a green fiscal reform. Economic theory is clear on the process for designing efficient environmental policies: eliminate energy production and consumption subsidies and use a Pigouvian fee to send appropriate signals through the market on the optimal use of different energy sources. Beyond that policy prescription, a number of choices remain: use of revenues, costs of administration, monitoring and oversight and other practical issues.
Policies can be assessed along a number of non‐environmental dimensions including potential for raising revenue, efficiency and distributional implications, broader economic impacts …
Forecasting In The Presence Of Expectations, Roy Allen, Joshua Graff Zivin, Jeffrey Shrader
Dec 2015
Forecasting In The Presence Of Expectations, Roy Allen, Joshua Graff Zivin, Jeffrey Shrader
Joshua Graff Zivin
No abstract provided.
Life In The Law-Thick World: The Legal Resource Landscape For Ordinary Americans, Gillian K. Hadfield, Jamie Heine
Dec 2015
Life In The Law-Thick World: The Legal Resource Landscape For Ordinary Americans, Gillian K. Hadfield, Jamie Heine
Gillian K Hadfield
Most advanced democracies are thick with law and regulation, rules that structure almost all social and economic relationships. Yet ordinary Americans, unlike their peers in other advanced systems, face this law-thick landscape with relatively few legal resources at their disposal. In this chapter, an updated version of Hadfield Higher Demand Lower Supply? A Comparative Assessment of the Legal Resource Landscape for Ordinary Americans (2009), we document what little data exists on the performance of legal markets for non-corporate clients in the U.S. Our results suggest that while the U.S. has nearly twice as many lawyers as comparable countries on a …
Scaffolding: Using Formal Contracts To Build Informal Relations To Support Innovation, Gillian K. Hadfield, Iva Bozovic
Dec 2015
Scaffolding: Using Formal Contracts To Build Informal Relations To Support Innovation, Gillian K. Hadfield, Iva Bozovic
Gillian K Hadfield
In a study that follows in Macaulay's (1963) footsteps, we asked businesses what role formal contract law plays in managing their external relationships. We heard similar answers to the ones Macaulay obtained fifty years ago from smaller companies that described important but non-innovation-oriented external relationships. But we also uncovered an important phenomenon: companies, large and small, that described innovation-oriented external relationships reported making extensive use of formal contracts to plan and manage these relationships. They do not, however, generate these formal contracts in order to secure the benefits of a credible threat of formal contract enforcement. Instead, like Macaulay's original …
The Typology Of The American Metropolis: Monocentricity, Polycentricity, Or Generalized Dispersion?, Amir Hajrasouliha, Shima Hamidi
Dec 2015
The Typology Of The American Metropolis: Monocentricity, Polycentricity, Or Generalized Dispersion?, Amir Hajrasouliha, Shima Hamidi
Amir Hajrasouliha
Although the spatial structure of employment in large US metropolitan regions is a well-researched topic, few studies focus on medium-sized and small US metropolitan regions. Consequently, there is no overall typology relating small-to-medium urban form to employment distribution. We address this gap by investigating the spatial structure of employment in 356 metropolitan regions. We conceptualize six typologies based on three categories that have overlapping properties: “monocentricity,” “polycentricity,” and “generalized dispersion.” The study has three main findings. First, the three types of urban form that we identify as “hybrid” outnumber the three “pure” types by almost four to one. Second, job …
"Immigrants And Mortgage Delinquency", Zhenguo Lin, Yingchun Liu, Jia Xie
Dec 2015
"Immigrants And Mortgage Delinquency", Zhenguo Lin, Yingchun Liu, Jia Xie
Jia Xie
No abstract provided.
Particulate Pollution And The Productivity Of Pear Packers, Tom Chang, Joshua Graff Zivin, Tal Gross, Matthew Neidell
Dec 2015
Particulate Pollution And The Productivity Of Pear Packers, Tom Chang, Joshua Graff Zivin, Tal Gross, Matthew Neidell
Joshua Graff Zivin
No abstract provided.
Learning And Coordination In The Presidential Primary System, Mattias K. Polborn, Helios H. Herrera, George Deltas
Dec 2015
Learning And Coordination In The Presidential Primary System, Mattias K. Polborn, Helios H. Herrera, George Deltas
Mattias K Polborn
To analyze the performance of the U.S. presidential primary system, we develop a model with horizontally and vertically differentiated candidates. Voters are uncertain about candidates' valences, and use results in earlier elections to update their beliefs. The temporal organization of primaries affects both voter learning and vote splitting, i.e., several candidates in the same policy position competing for the same voter pool. Sequential voting minimizes vote-splitting in late districts, but voters may coordinate on the wrong candidate. We structurally estimate the model using the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries. Using the parameter estimates, we conduct policy experiments such as replacing the …
Islands As `Bad' Geography. Insularity, Connectedness, Trade Costs And Trade, Luca De Benedictis, Anna Maria Pinna
Dec 2015
Islands As `Bad' Geography. Insularity, Connectedness, Trade Costs And Trade, Luca De Benedictis, Anna Maria Pinna
Luca De Benedictis
In this paper we explore the geographical dimension of insularity, measuring its effect on a comprehensive measure of trade costs (Novy 2012). Controlling for other geographical characteristics, connectedness (spatial proximity) and the role of historical events in shaping modern attitudes towards openness (measured through a quantification of routes descriptions in logbooks between 1750 and 1850), we give evidence that to be an island is not bad per se. Bad geography can be reversed by connectedness and open institutions.
An Examination Of Community Practice Social Workers As Social Intrapreneurs Or Social Entrepreneurs, Monica Nandan, Gokul Mandayam, Carol S. Collard, Rebekah Tchouta
Dec 2015
An Examination Of Community Practice Social Workers As Social Intrapreneurs Or Social Entrepreneurs, Monica Nandan, Gokul Mandayam, Carol S. Collard, Rebekah Tchouta
Monica Nandan
Social entrepreneurs and social intrapreneurs are characterized as being socially innovative, proactive and willing to take calculated risks. Evidenced by their practices and behaviors, community practice social workers engage in social change in ways similar to those of social entrepreneurs and social intrapreneurs. This article describes the findings of an explorative study that used survey design methodology to understand the level of social entrepreneurship or social intrapreneurship behaviors of twenty-seven community practice social workers in a Midwestern state. These findings have implications for training and educating community practice social workers, and social entrepreneurs and social intrapreneurs, as they attempt to …
The Role Of Coordination Bias In Platform Competition, Hanna Halaburda, Yaron Yehezkel
Dec 2015
The Role Of Coordination Bias In Platform Competition, Hanna Halaburda, Yaron Yehezkel
Hanna Halaburda
This paper considers platform competition in a two-sided market that includes buyers and sellers. One of the platforms benefits from a favorable coordination bias in the market, in that for this platform it is less costly than for the other platform to convince customers that the two sides will coordinate on joining it. We find that the degree of the coordination bias affects the platform's decision regarding the business model (i.e., whether to subsidize buyers or sellers), the access fees and the size of the platform. A slight increase in the coordination bias may induce the advantaged platform to switch …
The Effects Of Providing Fixed Compensation And Lottery-Based Rewards On Uptake Of Medical Male Circumcision In Kenya: A Randomized Trial, Harsha Thirumurthy, Samuel H. Masters, Samwel Rao, Kate Murray, Ram Prasad, Joshua Graff Zivin, Eunice Omanga, Kawango Agot
Dec 2015
The Effects Of Providing Fixed Compensation And Lottery-Based Rewards On Uptake Of Medical Male Circumcision In Kenya: A Randomized Trial, Harsha Thirumurthy, Samuel H. Masters, Samwel Rao, Kate Murray, Ram Prasad, Joshua Graff Zivin, Eunice Omanga, Kawango Agot
Joshua Graff Zivin
No abstract provided.
Designing Monetary Policy Committees, Volker Hahn
Dec 2015
Designing Monetary Policy Committees, Volker Hahn
Volker Hahn
We integrate monetary policy-making by committee into a New Keynesian model to assess the consequences of the committee's institutional characteristics for inflation, output, and welfare. Our analysis delivers the following results. First, we demonstrate that transparency about the committee's future composition is typically harmful. Second, we show that short terms for central bankers lead to effective inflation stabilization at the expense of comparably high output variability. Third, larger committees generally allow for more efficient stabilization of inflation but possibly for less efficient output stabilization. Fourth, large committees and short terms are therefore socially desirable if the weight on output stabilization …
Incumbent Landscapes, Disruptive Uses: Perspectives On Marijuana-Related Land Use Control, Donald J. Kochan
Dec 2015
Incumbent Landscapes, Disruptive Uses: Perspectives On Marijuana-Related Land Use Control, Donald J. Kochan
Donald J. Kochan
The story behind the move toward marijuana’s legality is a story of disruptive forces to the incumbent legal and physical landscape. It affects incumbent markets, incumbent places, the incumbent regulatory structure, and the legal system in general which must mediate the battles involving the push for relaxation of illegality and adaptation to accepting new marijuana-related land uses, against efforts toward entrenchment, resilience, and resistance to that disruption.
This Article is entirely agnostic on the issue of whether we should or should not decriminalize, legalize, or otherwise increase legal tolerance for marijuana or any other drugs. Nonetheless, we must grapple with …
Currency Wars And The Erosion Of Dollar Hegemony, Lan Cao
Dec 2015
Currency Wars And The Erosion Of Dollar Hegemony, Lan Cao
Lan Cao
A currency war is being waged against the dollar-based international economic system established in Bretton Woods after World War II. Much attention has been paid to the use of force and threats to the peace in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. But there is little law scholarship that examines threats to the dollar and the dollar-based system. And yet, challenging a country’s currency means challenging it on multiple fundamental fronts. Stocks, bonds, commodities, derivatives and other investments are all priced in a nation’s currency. If the dollar is undermined, the American economy itself and the existing international economic system are also …
