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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Wage Shocks And The Technological Substitution Of Low-Wage Jobs, Daniel Aaronson, Brian Phelan
Wage Shocks And The Technological Substitution Of Low-Wage Jobs, Daniel Aaronson, Brian Phelan
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We extend the task-based empirical framework used in the job polarization literature to analyze the susceptibility of low-wage employment to technological substitution. We find that increases in the cost of low-wage labor, via minimum wage hikes, lead to relative employment declines at cognitively routine occupations but not manually-routine or non-routine low-wage occupations. This suggests that low-wage routine cognitive tasks are susceptible to technological substitution. While the short-run employment consequence of this reshuffling on individual workers is economically small, due to concurrent employment growth in other low-wage jobs, workers previously employed in cognitively routine jobs experience relative wage losses.
Who Wins In An Energy Boom? Evidence From Wage Rates And Housing, Grant D. Jacobsen
Who Wins In An Energy Boom? Evidence From Wage Rates And Housing, Grant D. Jacobsen
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper presents evidence on the distributional effects of energy extraction by examining the recent U.S. energy boom. The boom increased local wage rates in almost every major occupational category. The increase occurred regardless of whether the occupation experienced a corresponding change in employment, suggesting a more competitive labor market that benefited local workers. Local housing values and rental prices both increased, thereby benefiting landowners. For renters, the increase in prices was completely offset by a contemporaneous increase in income. The results indicate that bans on drilling have negative monetary consequences for a large share of local residents.
Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence From Vacancy Postings, Brad J. Hershbein, Lisa B. Kahn
Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence From Vacancy Postings, Brad J. Hershbein, Lisa B. Kahn
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We show that skill requirements in job vacancy postings differentially increased in MSAs that were hit hard by the Great Recession, relative to less hard-hit areas, and that these differences across MSAs persist through the end of 2015. The increases are prevalent within occupations, more pronounced in the non-traded sector, driven by both within-firm upskilling and substitution from older to newer firms, accompanied by increases in capital stock, and are evident in realized employment. We argue that this evidence reflects the restructuring of production toward more skilled workers and routine-labor saving technologies, and that the Great Recession accelerated this process.
New Research On The Price Pass-Through Effects Of The Minimum Wage, Daniel Macdonald
New Research On The Price Pass-Through Effects Of The Minimum Wage, Daniel Macdonald
Employment Research Newsletter
No abstract provided.
Differential Mortality And The Progressivity Of Social Security, Shantanu Bagchi
Differential Mortality And The Progressivity Of Social Security, Shantanu Bagchi
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
I examine if the positive correlation between wealth and survivorship has any implications for the progressivity of Social Security’s current benefit-earnings rule. Using a general-equilibrium macroeconomic model calibrated to the U.S. economy, I show that the optimal benefit-earnings link for Social Security is largely insensitive to wealth-dependent mortality risk. This is because while a more progressive benefit-earnings rule provides increased insurance for households with relatively unfavorable earnings histories, and therefore lower savings and survivorship, their relatively high mortality risk heavily discounts the utility from old-age consumption. I find that these two effects roughly offset each other, yielding nearly identical optimal …
Effects Of The Affordable Care Act On Part-Time Employment: Early Evidence, Marcus O. Dillender, Carolyn J. Heinrich, Susan N. Houseman (Corresponding Author)
Effects Of The Affordable Care Act On Part-Time Employment: Early Evidence, Marcus O. Dillender, Carolyn J. Heinrich, Susan N. Houseman (Corresponding Author)
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) requires employers with at least 50 full-time-equivalent employees to offer “affordable” health insurance to employees working 30 or more hours per week. If employers do not comply with the mandate, they may face substantial financial penalties. Employers can potentially circumvent the mandate by reducing weekly hours below the 30-hour threshold or by using other nonstandard employment arrangements (direct-hire temporaries, agency temporaries, small contractors, and independent contractors). We examine the effects of the ACA on short-hours, part-time employment. Using monthly CPS data, we estimate that the ACA resulted in an increase in low-hours, involuntary part-time employment …
The Labor Market Consequences Of Regulating Similar Occupations: The Licensing Of Occupational And Physical Therapists, Jing Cai, Morris M. Kleiner
The Labor Market Consequences Of Regulating Similar Occupations: The Licensing Of Occupational And Physical Therapists, Jing Cai, Morris M. Kleiner
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This study shows the influence of occupational licensing on two occupations that provide similar services: occupational therapists and physical therapists. Most of the tasks for these two occupations differ, but several jobs overlap, and individuals in both occupations could have legal jurisdiction over these tasks. We empirically examine how these two occupations interact with one another in the labor market on wage determination and employment. Unlike previous studies, our study examines two occupations that are female dominated both within the professions and among its leadership. Our results show that occupational licensing can raise the wages of members of both occupations, …
The Effects Of Increasing The Minimum Wage On Prices: Analyzing The Incidence Of Policy Design And Context, Daniel Macdonald, Eric Nilsson
The Effects Of Increasing The Minimum Wage On Prices: Analyzing The Incidence Of Policy Design And Context, Daniel Macdonald, Eric Nilsson
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We analyze the price pass-through effect of the minimum wage and use the results to provide insight into the competitive structure of low-wage labor markets. Using monthly price series, we find that the pass-through effect is entirely concentrated on the month that the minimum wage change goes into effect, and is much smaller than what the canonical literature has found. We then discuss why our results differ from that literature, noting the impact of series interpolation in generating most of the previous results. We then use the variation in the size of the minimum wage change to evaluate the competitive …
Are There Returns To Experience At Low-Skill Jobs? Evidence From Single Mothers In The United States Over The 1990s, Adam Looney, Dayanand S. Manoli
Are There Returns To Experience At Low-Skill Jobs? Evidence From Single Mothers In The United States Over The 1990s, Adam Looney, Dayanand S. Manoli
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Policy changes in the United States in the 1990s resulted in sizable increases in employment rates of single mothers. We show that this increase led to a large and abrupt increase in work experience for single mothers with young children. We then examine the economic return to this increase in experience for affected single mothers. Despite the increases in experience, single mothers’ real wages and employment have remained relatively unchanged. The empirical analysis suggests that an additional year of experience increases single mothers’ wage rates by less than 2 percent, a percentage lower than previous estimates in the literature.
Domestic Outsourcing In The United States: A Research Agenda To Assess Trends And Effects On Job Quality, Annette Bernhardt, Rosemary L. Batt, Susan N. Houseman, Eileen Appelbaum
Domestic Outsourcing In The United States: A Research Agenda To Assess Trends And Effects On Job Quality, Annette Bernhardt, Rosemary L. Batt, Susan N. Houseman, Eileen Appelbaum
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The goal of this paper is to develop a comprehensive research agenda to analyze trends in domestic outsourcing in the United States—firms’ use of contractors and independent contractors—and its effects on job quality and inequality. In the process, we review definitions of outsourcing, the available scant empirical research, and limitations of existing data sources. We also summarize theories that attempt to explain why firms contract out for certain functions and assess their predictions about likely impacts on job quality. We then lay out in detail a major research initiative on domestic outsourcing, discussing the questions it should answer and providing …
Wage Insurance As A Policy Option In The United States, Stephen A. Wandner
Wage Insurance As A Policy Option In The United States, Stephen A. Wandner
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Wage insurance is a program that attempts to help permanently displaced workers transition to employment rapidly, effectively, and equitably. Because displaced workers have been found to suffer substantial earnings losses when they become reemployed, a wage insurance program provides a temporary wage supplement that partially reduces the wage loss experienced by targeted, newly reemployed workers. While participating workers receive a “wage supplement,” the program is called “wage insurance” because of its design as a social insurance program rather than an income transfer program. This paper provides a discussion of the development of wage insurance as a policy option in the …
Surviving Job Loss: Paper Makers In Maine And Minnesota, Kenneth A. Root, Rosemarie J. Park
Surviving Job Loss: Paper Makers In Maine And Minnesota, Kenneth A. Root, Rosemarie J. Park
Upjohn Press
Root and Park examine the plight of long-tenured workers displaced from two paper mills—their paths to reemployment, retirement decisions, and the personal struggles they confront.
The Nature And Role Of Temporary Help Work In The U.S. Economy, Susan N. Houseman, Carolyn J. Heinrich
The Nature And Role Of Temporary Help Work In The U.S. Economy, Susan N. Houseman, Carolyn J. Heinrich
Employment Research Newsletter
No abstract provided.
Evolving Approaches To The Economics Of Public Policy: Views Of Award-Winning Economists, Jean Kimmel Editor
Evolving Approaches To The Economics Of Public Policy: Views Of Award-Winning Economists, Jean Kimmel Editor
Upjohn Press
For policymakers, economics is a useful tool in the development and evaluation of public policy. And like many sciences, economics is evolving to become more interdisciplinary in its approach. Today, economic theory is often used in conjunction with insights gleaned from psychology and sociology to create a more inclusive, real-world approach to implementing public policy. In this book, five award-winning economists tackle a diverse range of topics and show how applied economics has evolved to give policymakers a more nuanced approach to policy development. The award-winning economists included in this volume are Erica Field, Nancy Folbre, Avner Grief, David M. …
Sustaining Social Security In An Era Of Population Aging, John A. Turner
Sustaining Social Security In An Era Of Population Aging, John A. Turner
Upjohn Press
John A. Turner offers a set of reforms for restoring solvency to Social Security that are deemed to have merit in the current political climate. These reforms relate to several vexing issues including increased life expectancy, the growing relationship between income and life expectancy, the declines in the physical demands of jobs, growing income inequality, and the pattern of poverty increasing at older ages.
The Impact Of Nurse Turnover On Quality Of Care And Mortality In Nursing Homes: Evidence From The Great Recession, Yaa Akosa Antwi, John R. Bowblis
The Impact Of Nurse Turnover On Quality Of Care And Mortality In Nursing Homes: Evidence From The Great Recession, Yaa Akosa Antwi, John R. Bowblis
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We estimate the causal effect of nurse turnover on mortality and the quality of nursing home care with a fixed effect instrumental variable estimation that uses the unemployment rate as an instrument for nursing turnover. We find that ignoring endogeneity leads to a systematic underestimation of the effect of nursing turnover on mortality and quality of care in a sample of California nursing homes. Specifically, 10 percentage point increase in nurse turnover results in a facility receiving 2.2 additional deficiencies per annual regulatory survey, reflecting a 19.3 percent increase. Not accounting for endogeneity of turnover leads to results that suggest …
Domestic Outsourcing Reduces Wages And Contributes To Rising Inequality, Johannes Schmieder, Deborah Goldschmidt
Domestic Outsourcing Reduces Wages And Contributes To Rising Inequality, Johannes Schmieder, Deborah Goldschmidt
Employment Research Newsletter
No abstract provided.
The Economics Of Health, Donald J. Meyer Editor
The Economics Of Health, Donald J. Meyer Editor
Upjohn Press
Donald J. Meyer leads a group of notable health economists who explore critical issues—and their economic impacts—facing the nation's healthcare system today. These include lifestyle choices and their health impacts, decisions on medical care and self-care, the fee-for-service payment model, disability and workers’ compensation insurance claims, long-term care, and how various aspects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) impact the nation’s healthcare system. Contributors include M. Kate Bundorf, Marcus Dillender, John H. Goddeeris, Donald J. Meyer, Edward C. Norton, and Charles E. Phelps.