Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Effects Of The African Continental Free Trade Agreement On Africa's Regional Economic Communities: An Empirical Analysis, Elizabeth Zhu

Undergraduate Economic Review

This study examines the economic effects of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) on three regional economic communities in Africa: COMESA, ECOWAS, and CEMAC. It scrutinizes the effects of the agreement on Africa’s largest trading partners: the EU, China, and America. Three scenarios are modelled using the GTAP CGE model: a removal of tariffs on 97% of goods, a removal of non-tariff barriers, and a combination of the previous two scenarios. The findings show that the welfare of all African regions increases due to AfCFTA, but to varying degrees, with CEMAC benefiting the least of the three regional blocs.

The Economic Implications Of Eliminating Coal Subsidies In G7 Countries, Rachel M. Kim, Pradnaya S. Pathak

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper analyzes the economic implications of eliminating coal subsidies in G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) in light of the Paris Agreement and the 2009 commitment to addressing climate change. The study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and contains three different simulations: production subsidy removal, consumption subsidy removal, and both consumption and production subsidy removal in G7 nations. Three variables were analyzed: economic welfare, market price, and output quantity. The results obtained using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) indicate that coal price increases and output quantity decreases, while economic welfare varies.

Irving Fisher, The Debt-Deflation Theory, And The Crisis Of 2008-2009, Zacharie Quiviger

Undergraduate Economic Review

Irving Fisher’s 1932 Booms and Depressions presents a fully specified, nine-pronged model of financial crises that has been widely forgotten by modern macroeconomists. This article builds on the renewed interest in Fisher’s Debt-Deflation Theory to explore its pertinence to the Great Recession. By parsing through macroeconomic data from the 2000s, it finds evidence of debt-deflation spiraling and of the nine Fisherian “main factors” co-varying as the author had predicted during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The article concludes in assessing the uses of Fisher’s work in current macroeconomics and in arguing for a greater consideration of its insights.

Determinants Of County-Level Poverty Rates In 2017: An Upper-Midwest Comparison, Trey V. Perez

Undergraduate Economic Review

The American upper-Midwest as a region throughout the 2010s has experienced lower-than-average poverty rates. This paper seeks to uncover the determinants that have the greatest impact on the county-level poverty rates for five states (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas). Outcomes for this study came from an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression to estimate the impact each independent variable had on the poverty rate. The empirical results showed the unemployment rate, the percentage of households headed solely by females, and percent of the population that was Native American in 2017 had a significant impact on a county’s poverty rate.

Sanctuary Cities And Their Respective Effect On Crime Rates, Adam R. Schutt

Undergraduate Economic Review

According to the U.S. Center for Immigration Studies (2017), cities or counties in twenty-four states declare themselves as a place of “sanctuary” for illegal immigrants. This study addresses the following question: Do sanctuary cities experience higher crime rates than those cities that are not? Using publicly available data, this regression analysis investigates the relationship between crime rates in selected cities and independent variables which the research literature or the media has linked to criminal activity. Results of this research reveal that sanctuary cities do not experience higher violent or property crime rates than those cities that are not sanctuary cities.

Assessing The Determinants Of The Human Development Index In Oil-Dependent Nations, Adrian Fossaceca

Undergraduate Economic Review

Numerous rentier states from around the world derive all or a fundamental portion of their national revenues from the rent of natural resources. These revenues are essential for the policy-making strategies pertaining to social welfare programs and for the funding of development projects within the country. In order to determine the effectiveness of rentier states in terms of development promotion, this paper will utilize the Human Development Index (HDI) as a proxy variable for development levels. Regression analysis indicates that a substantial proportion of the variation of the Human Development Index in oil-dependent economies can be explained by the adolescent …

Effect Of Unemployment Length On Employment Expectations, Kamyar Kamyar

Undergraduate Economic Review

Unemployment often has devastating effects on individuals -- both in financial and psychological terms. Depending on the type and category of unemployment, its length varies; and as its length increases it may implement biased thought in individuals’ predictions regarding future employment. This paper’s primary purpose is to measure and discuss how the time length that one has been unemployed for affects his or her expectations on his or her own short-term possibility of employment. The results suggest a strong opposite link between one’s prediction of future employment and the same person’s prior unemployment period. This paper was originally written in …

Wellbeing And Marriage: Does Marriage Improve Mental Health?, Maranda L. (Kahl) Joyce

Undergraduate Economic Review

With the decline in marriage rates and the rise in mental health issues, understanding the potential correlation between marital status and overall mental health is of economic importance. This research explores the potential effects of marital status on mental health in the U.S., using microdata from the 2016 Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance System. The role of marital status is examined on three different dependent variables. My results suggest that marriage is associated with a decrease in number of days of poor mental health, a decrease in the likelihood of a depressive disorder diagnosis, and an increase in overall life satisfaction.

Women, Stem, And Gender Differences In Higher Education Attainment, Amber Gauthier

John Wesley Powell Student Research Conference

Discussions and investigations of gender differences in earnings and human capital have seen a resurgence recently, specifically as they relate to women in Science, Technology, Math, and Engineering (STEM). Previous research, including my own, has uncovered inequality in earnings. Here, using data from the U.S. Current Population Survey, I examine the relationship between gender and (i) earning a professional certification; and (ii) pursuing graduate education: both means of career advancement and economic mobility. Simple ordinary least squares indicates women are less likely than men to obtain a professional certification, though this effect disappears in the presence …

The Out Migration From Illinois Cities And The Impact It Has On The People Left Behind, Evan Anderson

Honors Projects

The state of Illinois has had one of the highest rates of outbound migration in America. This paper evaluates the impact of out-migration on the communities these people leave behind, in particular the financial hub of Chicago and the small city of Bloomington. These cities are compared to the growth city of Phoenix, whose population has exploded in this decade and is one of the most popular destinations for those migrating out of Chicago and Bloomington. Human capital theory suggests that highly educated people with high wage potential are more likely to migrate than less educated people. This paper uses …

Exploring The Effects Of International Wage Differences On Brain Drain, Austin Martin

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper examines how international wage differences affect brain drain by comparing the effects of skill-specific wage differences on low, medium, and high-skilled emigration. Previous literature explores qualitative factors behind migrant flow, but there is little focus on the role of wage differences in individuals’ decisions to emigrate. A relatively new data set on emigration rates by education level and a modified gravity model provide a unique analysis of bilateral migration flows. This paper finds that wage differences may have a significant and positive effect on and low-skilled emigration, but a less significant effect on high-skilled emigration or brain drain.

Effects Of Relative Position On Success In Dancing Competitions - Lessons For Discrimination In Recruitment Processes, Jan P. Ringling

Undergraduate Economic Review

This article argues that there exists a further reason for discrimination beside taste and statistics, based on cognitive bias in the human thought process. The order in which one appears to recruiters in the hiring process also influences the chances of being hired in a non-linear way. When the characteristics of particular groups of people correlate with their order in which they appear in the hiring process, they stand a higher or lower chance of being hired. Preliminary evidence based on the results of the United Kingdom’s largest student dancing competition supports this hypothesis, but finds only a …

Poverty And Labor Force Participation Across Metropolitan Philadelphia, Zachary J. Porreca

Undergraduate Economic Review

This study utilizes data drawn from municipalities across the Philadelphia metropolitan area to examine trends in poverty amongst communities.While some research has been done on urban and rural poverty, this paper seeks to fill the gap in literature regarding poverty across the subksnurban and metropolitan landscape. A multiple regression model is specified, so as to provide an in depth analysis of observed trends. The central hypothesis that a relationship exists between poverty and labor force participation is tested and affirmed. The implication of this finding, as well as auxiliary findings, are explored and expanded upon. Recommendations are made for more …

The Effect Of Good Samaritan Laws (Gsl) On Opioid Overdose Mortality, Tarun Ramesh

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper investigates the effects of Good Samaritan Laws on opioid overdose mortality rates in the United States. Evaluating policy interventions in response to upticks in opioid mortality is crucial to enact federal legislation that protects communities. However, concerns about moral hazard implications could have profound impacts on current efforts to combat the epidemic. This paper will look at various policies proposed and evaluate the effects of such policies on overall mortality rates, elucidating the moral hazard effects of Good Samaritan Laws.

Is Geographical Remoteness An Economic Disadvantage?, Jiaxuan Lu

Undergraduate Economic Review

Is the geographical location of a country deterministic to its level of economic development? Although economic geographers have been searching the answers to this question for decades, incongruities between different opinions still exist. This paper takes both theoretical and empirical approaches to provide a systematic answer to this question. Firstly, this paper uses industry-level gravity model of international trade to demonstrate that not all countries are negatively affected by geographical remoteness. Secondly, it employs a panel data of 83 countries from 2000 to 2017 and substantiates that while geographical remoteness decreases income levels and trade balances in OECD countries, it …

Reference-Dependent Preferences Among Nfl Fans: Evidence From Google Trends, Sunjae Lee

Undergraduate Economic Review

I look for evidence of reference-dependent preferences in the National Football League (NFL). Under reference-dependent preferences, sports fans should react more strongly to surprising wins and losses than expected wins or losses. I use Google Trends to look at the impact of NFL game outcomes on the use of positive or negative words on Google search. While search activity did respond to NFL games, I did not find that this response was sensitive to how surprising the outcome was, and so did not find evidence of reference-dependent preferences.

Determinants Of Growth Volatility In Low- And Middle-Income Countries, Jenny Thao Le

Mark A. Israel '91 Endowed Summer Research Fund in Economics

This study examines the structural, institutional, and political factors that influence the levels of economic volatility observed in low- and middle-income countries. Analyzing a sample of 86 countries over the period 1997-2019, the study finds that the determinants of per capita GDP growth volatility change as a country moves up the income ladder. For the developing countries with relatively low income levels, the most important sources of economic instability include the relative sizes of government spending and of credit supply, variations in agricultural productivity growth, and governing factors such as the level of law enforcement and the extent to which …

Recessions Or Partisanship: What Explains Climate Skepticism In The U.S.?, Abhishek S. Sambatur

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper investigates the variations in public mood pertaining to climate skepticism and attempts to empirically assess whether economic recessions or partisanship help explain aggregate-level trends and movements across a 16-year time horizon. Public survey data from the iPoll and Gallup Organization were used to construct the Climate Change Skeptic Index (CCSI) that served as a proxy to capture public opinion trends in skepticism across the U.S. A two-part vector autoregressive model suggests that while economic recessions might be causally linked to climate skepticism, partisanship plays a more influential role in explaining it over time. The key result is that …

Learning Consequences Of School Improvement In Mexico: Evidence From A Large Government Program, Carlos Alejandro Noyola Contreras

Undergraduate Economic Review

I study the impact of investment in infrastructure of already existing poor schools and increased school based management on learning outcomes, as measured by student achievement in standardized tests. To that end, I implement a difference-in-differences design to compare schools that received money from a large government program to improve their physical conditions with those that do not, before and after program implementation. Unlike previous studies, I focus on the effect of improving schools that already exist, to see whether the impact is different from that of building schools. I find no evidence of positive impacts on test scores at …

Is Diamond A Resource Curse For Africa?, Karli Hamrick

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper investigates the resource curse in diamond exporting industry in African countries. The empirical evidence about the “resource curse” is mixed in literature and almost none has been done regarding diamond. Our study aims to bridge that gap. The results suggest that diamond export is positively correlated with well-being in a group of African countries. In other words, the “resource curse” may not occur in diamond mining industry after the Kimberly Process (KP) was put in place in 2002. We argue that the KP serves as a good institution and has created good incentives for firms in the industry. …

A Data Analysis Of The World Happiness Index And Its Relation To The North-South Divide, Charles Alba

Undergraduate Economic Review

In this document, we perform a detailed data analysis on the World Happiness Report with its relation to the socio-economic North-South Divide. In order to do so, we perform some extensive data cleaning and analysis before querying on the World Happiness Report. Our results based on Hypothesis Testing determines the happiness of the Global North is greater than that of the Global South. Furthermore, our queries show that the mean happiness score for the Global North significantly outweighing that of the South. Likewise, the 10 'Happiest' nations all belong to the Global North whereas the 10 'least happy' nations belong …

Is Our Coal-Onial Era Ending Anytime Soon?, Hadiqa Faraz

Undergraduate Economic Review

In this paper, I estimate the long-run co-integrated relationship between energy demand and economic growth for 20 countries from the year 2000 to 2016. I use panel unit-root and heterogeneous panel co-integration tests to test for non-stationarity of the panels and to determine whether there is a long-run link between energy consumption and GDP per capita. The estimated model uses a first-difference OLS model to estimate income elasticity of energy demand; the empirical results of this model show that there is a long-run relationship between energy consumption per capita and GDP per capita. In the long-term, on average, with 1% …

The Relationship Between College Expansion And Income Inequality, Aidan J. Wang

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper examines the relationship between college expansion and income inequality within a country. Researchers have identified a “composition effect,” “compression effect,” and “dispersion effect.” However, the shape and magnitude of the net relationship remains unclear. I construct a country panel using inequality data from the World Inequality Database and college share data from Barro and Lee. From 0% to 27% college share, the bottom 50% and middle 40% income shares decrease linearly while the top 10% income share increases linearly. The trend shape holds for a sample of only OECD countries, but the magnitude changes, suggesting country-specific factors matter.

Understanding The Characteristics Of Remittance Recipients In Venezuela: A Country In Economic Crisis, Nicole A. Degla

Undergraduate Economic Review

This essay analyzes household surveys from the World Bank Global Financial Inclusion Database for the years 2011, 2014, and 2017, as a means to distinguish individual level characteristics of remittance recipients in Venezuela. Remittances are defined as “crossborder, person-to-person payments of relatively low value. The transfers are typically recurrent payments by migrant workers to their relatives in their home countries (World Bank, 2015). Through the use of a linear probability model and probit regressions, I examine the variables age, gender, education level, and income quintile. Results of the analysis find that age has a statistically significant negative effect on the …

The Shifting Dynamics Of International Reserve Currencies, Robert J. Righi

Undergraduate Economic Review

With the recognition by the IMF of the Chinese renminbi as an international reserve currency in 2015, it is important to understand the modern influence of reserve currencies. We use currency exchange rate data and apply modified workhorse regression models to assign each country’s gross domestic product at purchasing power parity to a reserve currency bloc in order to obtain a global sphere of influence for each reserve currency. We find that the United States retains its dominance but faces challenges from the renminbi and the euro in recent years as the international monetary system becomes tri-polar.

How Do Interest Rates Affect Market Capitalization Growth Rates In The Us?, Philip Carolin

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper investigates how interest rates affect the market capitalization growth rate of individual companies in the US. The research will distinguish itself from previous literature as it analyzes company and macroeconomic data after the 2008 recession. This is particularly interesting as interest rates have been historically low in this time period. Previous research suggests that since the Great Recession the effects of interest rate changes have decreased. On the contrary I will argue that the effects of interest rates still appear to be significant and substantial when explaining the market capitalization growth rate.

Measuring The Black-White Dissimilarity Index In Williamsburg And James City County Public High Schools, Sylvia Greer

Undergraduate Economic Review

In 2007, the Williamsburg-James City County (WJCC) School Board chose to open a third high school and redistrict the attendance of their public high schools.

I used a measure of racial unevenness to assess what this decision did to racial segregation in the school district. Using the black-white dissimilarity index, I found that the high schools have had increasing racial segregation from 2000 to 2015, with a significant increase due to the new school.

As the WJCC school board, students, and families move forward, they should be careful to measure and address the levels of segregation in the district.

The Argentine Great Depression, Laira Aggarwal, Francois Ries, Alejandro Salvador

Undergraduate Economic Review

The purpose of this paper is to comprehend the business cycle of the Argentine Crisis (1998-2002). The following paper will outline the crisis, starting off with a comprehensive literature review on the topic, analyzing its causes and consequences, followed by a survey on the policy-responses undertaken by the Argentine government to combat the recession. The crisis will then be analyzed in the context of the IS-LM model of macroeconomics.

A Statistical Analysis Of Economic Perceptions In The 2015 United Kingdom General Election, Amarvir Singh-Bal Mr.

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper characterises the vote which took place in the United Kingdom's (U.K.) 2015 General Election as an ‘accountability instrument.’ In doing so, the research interrogates which sections of the electorate hold the incumbent government more accountable for economic outcomes between the 2010 and 2015 U.K. General Elections. The Rational Choice Theory and the Michigan Model are used in this study to present two interlinked, and yet distinct, hypotheses – that less politically informed and non-partisan voters are more likely to hold the government accountable for economic performances; compared to the politically informed and partisan voters within the electorate. Implementing …

How Deep Is Your Love? Loss Aversion In Dating Markets, Genevieve B. Gregorich

Undergraduate Economic Review

This study uses experimental evidence to examine the existence of loss aversion in the dating market. Applying a valuation gap experiment, this study finds that people are loss averse when it comes to dating opportunities, meaning people weigh the loss of a dating opportunity more heavily than an equivalent gain. The results also support the hypothesis that people experience more loss aversion when they have fewer dating opportunities available. This finding provides preliminary evidence that the existence and growing prevalence of online dating, which dramatically increases peoples’ access to dating opportunities, reduces loss aversion, therefore increasing turnover in the market.