Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

The Rocket: Analyzing Rtp (Return To Player), Payoff Distribution And Player Behavior In Crash Games, Mikhail M. Sher, Robert Haywood Scott Iii, Jonathan A. Daigle

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Abstract

Rocket is a crash game developed by DraftKings, an American publicly traded online casino, sports betting and fantasy sports company. DraftKings Rocket is a game played with a rising rocket. Players must exit the rocket at any point before the rocket crashes. In that case they receive the payoff in accordance to the multiplier of their exit point. If the rocket crashes before the player bails, player’s payoff is 0 (and they lose their bet).

The game boasts an unprecedented 97% RTP (Return to Player). For comparison, Atlantic City casino slots typically have a 91-92% RTP, while Vegas casino …

Performance Classification Of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-Type Models Using Fractal Analysis Of Time Series Data., Peter Kwadwo Asante

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation aims to assess the performance of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-type models by examining the fractal characteristics of time series data from various sources, including finance, volcanic and earthquake events, US COVID-19 reported cases and deaths, and two simulated time series with differing properties. The time series data is categorized as either a Gaussian or a Lévy process (Lévy walk or Lévy flight) by using three scaling methods: Rescaled range analysis, Detrended fluctuation analysis, and Diffusion entropy analysis. The outcomes of this analysis indicate that the financial indices are classified as Lévy walks, while the volcanic, earthquake, and COVID-19 data are classified …

Bridging The Chasm Between Fundamental, Momentum, And Quantitative Investing, Allen Hoskins, Jeff Reed, Robert Slater

SMU Data Science Review

A chasm exists between the active public equity investment management industry's fundamental, momentum, and quantitative styles. In this study, the researchers explore ways to bridge this gap by leveraging domain knowledge, fundamental analysis, momentum, crowdsourcing, and data science methods. This research also seeks to test the developed tools and strategies during the volatile time period of 2020 and 2021.

Fraud Pattern Detection For Nft Markets, Andrew Leppla, Jorge Olmos, Jaideep Lamba

SMU Data Science Review

Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) enable ownership and transfer of digital assets using blockchain technology. As a relatively new financial asset class, NFTs lack robust oversight and regulations. These conditions create an environment that is susceptible to fraudulent activity and market manipulation schemes. This study examines the buyer-seller network transactional data from some of the most popular NFT marketplaces (e.g., AtomicHub, OpenSea) to identify and predict fraudulent activity. To accomplish this goal multiple features such as price, volume, and network metrics were extracted from NFT transactional data. These were fed into a Multiple-Scale Convolutional Neural Network that predicts suspected fraudulent activity based …

A Review On Derivative Hedging Using Reinforcement Learning, Peng Liu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Hedging is a common trading activity to manage the risk of engaging in transactions that involve derivatives such as options. Perfect and timely hedging, however, is an impossible task in the real market that characterizes discrete-time transactions with costs. Recent years have witnessed reinforcement learning (RL) in formulating optimal hedging strategies. Specifically, different RL algorithms have been applied to learn the optimal offsetting position based on market conditions, offering an automatic risk management solution that proposes optimal hedging strategies while catering to both market dynamics and restrictions. In this article, the author provides a comprehensive review of the use of …

An Analysis Of Weighted Least Squares Monte Carlo, Xiaotian Zhu

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Since Longstaff and Schwartz [2001] brought the amazing Regression-based Monte Carlo (LSMC) method in pricing American options, it has received heated discussion. Based on the research done by Fabozzi et al. [2017] that applies the heteroscedasticity correction method to LSMC, we further extend the study by introducing the methods from Park [1966] and Harvey [1976]. Our work shows that for a single stock American Call option modelled by GBM with two exercise opportunities, WLSMC or IRLSMC provides better estimates in continuation value than LSMC. However, they do not lead to better exercise decisions and hence have little to no effect …

A Machine Learning Approach To Stochastic Optimal Control, Pablo Ever Avalos

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Merton's portfolio optimization problem is a well-renowned problem in financial mathematics which seeks to optimize the investment decision for an investor. In the simplest situation, the market consists of a risk-less asset (i.e. a bond) that pays back a relatively low interest rate, and a risky asset (i.e. a stock) that follows a geometric Brownian motion. The optimal allocation strategy of the investor's wealth is found by optimizing the expected utility along the stochastic evolution of the market. This thesis focuses on several different applications of this optimization problem. We look at pre-constructed analytical solutions and showcase the results. We …

Intraday Algorithmic Trading Using Momentum And Long Short-Term Memory Network Strategies, Andrew R. Whitinger Ii

Undergraduate Honors Theses

Intraday stock trading is an infamously difficult and risky strategy. Momentum and reversal strategies and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks have been shown to be effective for selecting stocks to buy and sell over time periods of multiple days. To explore whether these strategies can be effective for intraday trading, their implementations were simulated using intraday price data for stocks in the S&P 500 index, collected at 1-second intervals between February 11, 2021 and March 9, 2021 inclusive. The study tested 160 variations of momentum and reversal strategies for profitability in long, short, and market-neutral portfolios, totaling 480 portfolios. …

The Correlation Of Winning And Money-Baseball, Jacob Bowman

Scholars Day Conference

This presentation over my thesis examines the feasibility of using statistics to predict win values for major league baseball. Definite correlations were discovered between a Major League organization’s finances and on-field performance. Stated correlations are used to generate a predictive model that will predict on-field outcomes. Using regression analysis, such a model is construed, and successfully predicted win ratios for Major League Baseball organizations using only available past financial data.

Session 5: Equipment Finance Credit Risk Modeling - A Case Study In Creative Model Development & Nimble Data Engineering, Edward Krueger, Landon Thompson, Josh Moore

SDSU Data Science Symposium

This presentation will focus first on providing an overview of Channel and the Risk Analytics team that performed this case study. Given that context, we’ll then dive into our approach for building the modeling development data set, techniques and tools used to develop and implement the model into a production environment, and some of the challenges faced upon launch. Then, the presentation will pivot to the data engineering pipeline. During this portion, we will explore the application process and what happens to the data we collect. This will include how we extract & store the data along with how it …

Stock Markets Performance During A Pandemic: How Contagious Is Covid-19?, Yara Abushahba

Theses and Dissertations

Background and Motivation: The coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic, the subsequent policies and lockdowns have unarguably led to an unprecedented fluid circumstance worldwide. The panic and fluctuations in the stock markets were unparalleled. It is inarguable that real-time availability of news and social media platforms like Twitter played a vital role in driving the investors’ sentiment during such global shock.

Purpose:The purpose of this thesis is to study how the investor sentiment in relation to COVID-19 pandemic influenced stock markets globally and how stock markets globally are integrated and contagious. We analyze COVID-19 sentiment through the Twitter posts and investigate its …

Application Of Randomness In Finance, Jose Sanchez, Daanial Ahmad, Satyanand Singh

Publications and Research

Brownian Motion which is also considered to be a Wiener process and can be thought of as a random walk. In our project we had briefly discussed the fluctuations of financial indices and related it to Brownian Motion and the modeling of Stock prices.

Retail Trading And Stock Volatility: The Case Of Robinhood, Cooper Jones

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

We examine the relation between Robinhood usership and stock market volatility. We show that daily fluctuations in Robinhood usership, which is used to proxy retail trading, significantly influence various measures of volatility. These results might suggest that Robinhood users contribute to noise trading as they are generally individuals trading on name recognition, media coverage, popularity, and familiarity of products, rather than on fundamental values. In our empirical approach, we find that the percentage increase in Robinhood usership Granger causes increases in daily stock volatility.

Cointegration And Statistical Arbitrage Of Precious Metals, Judge Van Horn

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

When talking about financial instruments correlation is often thrown around as a measure of the relation between two securities. An often more useful or tradeable measure is cointegration. Cointegration is the measure of two securities tendency to revert to an average price over time. In other words, cointegration ignores directionality and only cares about the distance between two securities. For a mean reversion strategy such as statistical arbitrage cointegration proves to be a far more reliable statistical measure of mean reversion, and while it is more reliable than correlation it still has its own problems. One thing to consider is …

Combination Of Time Series Analysis And Sentiment Analysis For Stock Market Forecasting, Hsiao-Chuan Chou

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this research is to build a model to predict trend of financial asset price using sentiment from news headlines and financial indicators of the asset. Objective of the model is to conclude good results but also to minimize the difference between predicted values and actual values. Unlike previous approaches where the sentiments are usually calculated into score, we focus on combination of word embedding of news and financial indicators due to nonavailability of sentiment lexicon.

One idea is that the sentiment of news headline should have impact on financial asset val- ues. In other words, it would …

Financial News And Cds Spreads, Paresh Kumar Narayan, Deepa Bannigidadmath

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

© 2020 Elsevier B.V. This paper examines whether financial news moves CDS spreads for a large number of U.S. stocks sorted into 19 panels consisting of sectors, sizes and credit quality. Using a unique financial news data set, we discover that while both positive and negative news predicts CDS spread changes in most of the panels, annualised mean–variance profits and utility gains are dominated by forecasting models that use positive news as a predictor. At best, risk factors only account for around 31% of observed profits.

Analyzing Competitive Balance In Professional Sport, Kevin Alwell

Honors Scholar Theses

In this paper we review several measures to statistically analyze competitive balance and report which leagues have a wider variance of performance amongst its competitors. Each league seeks to maintain high levels of parity, making matches and overall season more unpredictable and appealing to the general audience. Here we quantify competitive advantage across major sports leagues in numbers using several statistical methods in order for leagues to optimize their revenue.

Data-Driven Investment Decisions In P2p Lending: Strategies Of Integrating Credit Scoring And Profit Scoring, Yan Wang

Doctor of Data Science and Analytics Dissertations

In this dissertation, we develop and discuss several loan evaluation methods to guide the investment decisions for peer-to-peer (P2P) lending. In evaluating loans, credit scoring and profit scoring are the two widely utilized approaches. Credit scoring aims at minimizing the risk while profit scoring aims at maximizing the profit. This dissertation addresses the strengths and weaknesses of each scoring method by integrating them in various ways in order to provide the optimal investment suggestions for different investors. Before developing the methods for loan evaluation at the individual level, we applied the state-of-the-art method called the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) …

A Credit Analysis Of The Unbanked And Underbanked: An Argument For Alternative Data, Edwin Baidoo

Doctor of Data Science and Analytics Dissertations

The purpose of this study is to ascertain the statistical and economic significance of non-traditional credit data for individuals who do not have sufficient economic data, collectively known as the unbanked and underbanked. The consequences of not having sufficient economic information often determines whether unbanked and underbanked individuals will receive higher price of credit or be denied entirely. In terms of regulation, there is a strong interest in credit models that will inform policies on how to gradually move sections of the unbanked and underbanked population into the general financial network.

In Chapter 2 of the dissertation, I establish the …

Preparing For The Future: The Effects Of Financial Literacy On Financial Planning For Young Professionals, Tanay Singh

Senior Theses

Purpose – Many people between the age of 20 and 34 have not considered planning financially for the future in any significant capacity and in doing so, they limit their potential savings. The purpose of this study is to examine what financial expectations are for people in the early stages of their career and determine if improving financial literacy and revealing financial realities helps to produce more accurate or realistic expectations. Ultimately, the goal is to better prepare participants in the study for the working world and increased responsibilities outside of the college/university environment by getting them to start thinking …

Stochastic Modeling Of Earthquakes And Option Pricing Using Bns-Gamma-Ou Model, Mandela Bright Quashie

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

High frequency data are becoming increasingly popular these days. They are fundamental in basically every facet of people’s lives. They are the determining factors in hedging in the field of finance. In geology, they help in the accurate prediction of earthquakes’ magnitude which goes along way to help save lives and properties.

High frequency data are also used more and more frequently for speculations. For this reason, it is important not only for scientists to apply models allowing correct quantification of these data, but also to improve the eciency of these models.

The Black-Scholes model, which is widely used because …

Lévy Processes: Characterizing Volcanic And Financial Time Series, Peter Kwadwo Asante

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

In this work, we use the Diffusion Entropy Analysis (DEA) to analyze and detect the scaling properties of time series from both emerging and well established markets as well as volcanic eruptions recorded by a seismic station, both financial and volcanic time series data are known to have high frequencies (i.e they are collected at an extremely fine scale). The objective is to determine the characterization i.e whether they follow a Gaussian or Lévy distribution. If they do follow a Lévy distribution we are then interested in finding if they are characterized by a Lévy walk which has a finite …

Kelly Fraction Estimation For Multiple Correlated Bets, William Chin

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

It is well-known that expected portfolio growth is maximized by maximizing

expected logarithmic utility. This investment criterion is known as Kelly betting.

It has many optimality properties but is considered to be risky. Blackjack

teams and other advantage gamblers practice a fraction of the Kelly optimal to

decrease risk. Some hedge fund managers are thought to practice according to

Kelly principles. We use a continuous multivariate Geometric Brownian motion

model and present an interval estimate for the historical fraction for a portfolio

of correlated bets, possibly including a risk-free asset. Historical data comes

from a range of sources and the …

Predictive Distributions Via Filtered Historical Simulation For Financial Risk Management, Tyson Clark

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Filtered historical simulation with an underlying GARCH process can be used as a valuable tool in VaR analysis, as it derives risk estimates that are sensitive to the distributional properties of the historical data of the produced predictive density. I examine the applications to risk analysis that filtered historical simulation can provide, as well as an interpretation of the predictive density as a poor man’s Bayesian posterior distribution. The predictive density allows us to make associated probabilistic statements regarding the results for VaR analysis, giving greater measurement of risk and the ability to maintain the optimal level of risk per …

Essays On Time Series And Machine Learning Techniques For Risk Management, Michael Kotarinos

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The Capital Asset Pricing Model combined with the Sharpe ratio is a standard method for choosing assets for selection in a portfolio. However, this method has many structural issues and was designed for a time when high dimensional computing was in its infancy. An alternative to these methods using a mix of Multi-Level Time Series Clustering, the MACBETH algorithm and traditional time series techniques was constructed that minimized data loss and allow for customized portfolio construction for investors with different risk profiles and specialized investment needs. It was shown that these methods are adaptable to cloud computing environments and allow …

A Comparison Of Machine Learning Algorithms For Prediction Of Past Due Service In Commercial Credit, Liyuan Liu M.A, M.S., Jennifer Lewis Priestley Ph.D.

Jennifer L. Priestley

Credit risk modeling has carried a variety of research interest in previous literature, and recent studies have shown that machine learning methods achieved better performance than conventional statistical ones. This study applies decision tree which is a robust advanced credit risk model to predict the commercial non-financial past-due problem with better critical power and accuracy. In addition, we examine the performance with logistic regression analysis, decision trees, and neural networks. The experimenting results confirm that decision trees improve upon other methods. Also, we find some interesting factors that impact the commercials’ non-financial past-due payment.

Improving Vix Futures Forecasts Using Machine Learning Methods, James Hosker, Slobodan Djurdjevic, Hieu Nguyen, Robert Slater

SMU Data Science Review

The problem of forecasting market volatility is a difficult task for most fund managers. Volatility forecasts are used for risk management, alpha (risk) trading, and the reduction of trading friction. Improving the forecasts of future market volatility assists fund managers in adding or reducing risk in their portfolios as well as in increasing hedges to protect their portfolios in anticipation of a market sell-off event. Our analysis compares three existing financial models that forecast future market volatility using the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) to six machine/deep learning supervised regression methods. This analysis determines which models provide best …

How Ceo Wealth Affects The Riskiness Of A Firm, Sonik Mandal, Charlie Swartz, Sanjib Guha, Carl B. Mcgowan Jr.

Finance Faculty Publications

The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the ownership level of managers and the risk averse behavior of the firm. We measure the ownership level of the managers by the ratio of their ownership of the company relative to their total wealth for a sample of 69 individuals from the Forbes 400 list of the wealthiest individuals in the world for the period from 2001-11 using an unbalanced panel data analysis. The dependent variable is the Altman Z-score of each firm and we further test these relationships using financial leverage. The independent variables are delta and …

Estimation Of Multivariate Asset Models With Jumps, Angela Loregian, Laura Ballotta, Gianluca Gianluca Fusai, Marcos Fabricio Perez

Business Faculty Publications

We propose a consistent and computationally efficient two-step methodology for the estimation of multidimensional non-Gaussian asset models built using Levy processes. The proposed framework allows for dependence between assets and different tail behaviors and jump structures for each asset. Our procedure can be applied to portfolios with a large number of assets as it is immune to estimation dimensionality problems. Simulations show good finite sample properties and significant efficiency gains. This method is especially relevant for risk management purposes such as, for example, the computation of portfolio Value at Risk and intra-horizon Value at Risk, as we show in detail …