Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Predictive Distributions Via Filtered Historical Simulation For Financial Risk Management, Tyson Clark

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Filtered historical simulation with an underlying GARCH process can be used as a valuable tool in VaR analysis, as it derives risk estimates that are sensitive to the distributional properties of the historical data of the produced predictive density. I examine the applications to risk analysis that filtered historical simulation can provide, as well as an interpretation of the predictive density as a poor man’s Bayesian posterior distribution. The predictive density allows us to make associated probabilistic statements regarding the results for VaR analysis, giving greater measurement of risk and the ability to maintain the optimal level of risk per …

Pricing Asian Options: Volatility Forecasting As A Source Of Downside Risk, Adam T. Diehl

Undergraduate Economic Review

Asian options are a class of derivative securities whose payoffs average movements in the underlying asset as a means of hedging exposure to unexpected market behavior. We find that despite their volatility smoothing properties, the price of an Asian option is sensitive to the choice of volatility model employed to price them from market data. We estimate the errors induced by two common schemes of forecasting volatility and their potential impact upon trading.

Arma-Garch Model Applied To Exchange-Traded Funds, Rebecca Davis

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

In this paper, time-varying volatility of some of the leading exchange-traded funds are studied. The ARMA mean equation with GARCH errors is used to model the series correlations and the conditional heteroscadesticity in the asset

returns. The conditional distributions of the standardized residuals are assumed to be skew-generalized error distribution. The high kurtosis and fat tail of the returns, were captured in all the data by fitting an ARMA-GARCH model with the conditional distribution of, skew-generalized error distribution.

Furthermore, the sample cross-correlations of these significant exchange-traded funds and the corresponding financial indices they mimic were computed. The empirical conclusion was …

Study Of Volatility Structures In Geophysics And Finance Using Garch Models, Francis Biney

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

This work investigates the underlying volatility processes in earthquake series, explosive series, high frequency (tick) data and financial indices. Furthermore it examines the applicability of a range of GARCH specifications for modeling volatility of these series in order to identify similarities and differences in the volatility structures. The GARCH

variants considered include the basic GARCH, IGARCH, ARFIMA (0,d,0)-GARCH and FIGARCH specifications. In all the applications the methodology provides insight into features of these series volatility.