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- Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA); Bank Failures – Mathematical models; Big business; Business enterprises—Size; Conditional Test; ERR; ERRR; Poisson process (1)
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Articles 1 - 6 of 6
Full-Text Articles in Statistics and Probability
The Rocket: Analyzing Rtp (Return To Player), Payoff Distribution And Player Behavior In Crash Games, Mikhail M. Sher, Robert Haywood Scott Iii, Jonathan A. Daigle
The Rocket: Analyzing Rtp (Return To Player), Payoff Distribution And Player Behavior In Crash Games, Mikhail M. Sher, Robert Haywood Scott Iii, Jonathan A. Daigle
International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking
Abstract
Rocket is a crash game developed by DraftKings, an American publicly traded online casino, sports betting and fantasy sports company. DraftKings Rocket is a game played with a rising rocket. Players must exit the rocket at any point before the rocket crashes. In that case they receive the payoff in accordance to the multiplier of their exit point. If the rocket crashes before the player bails, player’s payoff is 0 (and they lose their bet).
The game boasts an unprecedented 97% RTP (Return to Player). For comparison, Atlantic City casino slots typically have a 91-92% RTP, while Vegas casino …
Kelly Fraction Estimation For Multiple Correlated Bets, William Chin
Kelly Fraction Estimation For Multiple Correlated Bets, William Chin
International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking
It is well-known that expected portfolio growth is maximized by maximizing
expected logarithmic utility. This investment criterion is known as Kelly betting.
It has many optimality properties but is considered to be risky. Blackjack
teams and other advantage gamblers practice a fraction of the Kelly optimal to
decrease risk. Some hedge fund managers are thought to practice according to
Kelly principles. We use a continuous multivariate Geometric Brownian motion
model and present an interval estimate for the historical fraction for a portfolio
of correlated bets, possibly including a risk-free asset. Historical data comes
from a range of sources and the …
Optimal Strategy For Gambling Pools, Aaron C. Brown
Optimal Strategy For Gambling Pools, Aaron C. Brown
International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking
In gambling pools, entrants submit predictions and the prizes are awarded to the prediction or predictions closest to actual outcomes. Some well-known examples are football pools (both the global and American game versions), toto, NCAA March Madness bracket pools and horse racing tournaments. For small pools with complete information about outcome probabilities, exact game theory optimal solutions are straightforward to compute. If there is also complete information about the number and strategy of other players, optimal exploitive strategies are even easier to derive. These problems have been treated in the literature.
This paper argues that the complete information approaches are …
Self-Correcting Kelly Strategies For Skeptical Traders, Aaron C. Brown
Self-Correcting Kelly Strategies For Skeptical Traders, Aaron C. Brown
International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking
The Kelly criterion gives the appropriate bet size in idealized situations with known parameters. In financial trading situations parameters are generally unknown and the mathematical assumptions underlying the Kelly proof are not met precisely. Moreover a risk manager typically must cooperate with a trader who may be skeptical about both the Kelly criterion specifically and the concept of mathematical optimization of bet size in general.
This presentation tackles the problem of designing a Kelly-based system for setting trade risk management parameters that is both self-correcting (the system delivers good results even if initial parameter are misestimated or parameters change) and …
Analysis Of Bank Failure And Size Of Assets, Guancun Zhong
Analysis Of Bank Failure And Size Of Assets, Guancun Zhong
UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones
The financial health of the banking industry is an important prerequisite for economic stability and growth. Bank failures in the United States have run in cycles largely associated with the collapse of economic bubbles. The number of bank failures has increased dramatically over the last thirty years (Halling and Hayden, 2007). In this thesis, we try to address the following two questions: 1) What is the relationship, if any, between a bank's asset size and its likelihood of failures? 2) How can we use statistical tools to predict the numbers of bank failures in the future? Various modeling techniques are …
Arima Models For Bank Failures: Prediction And Comparison, Fangjin Cui
Arima Models For Bank Failures: Prediction And Comparison, Fangjin Cui
UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones
The number of bank failures has increased dramatically over the last twenty-two years. A common notion in economics is that some banks can become "too big to fail." Is this still a true statement? What is the relationship, if any, between bank sizes and bank failures? In this thesis, the proposed modeling techniques are applied to real bank failure data from the FDIC. In particular, quarterly data from 1989:Q1 to 2010:Q4 are used in the data analysis, which includes three major parts: 1) pairwise bank failure rate comparisons using the conditional test (Przyborowski and Wilenski, 1940); 2) development of the …