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Discussion Of T.A. Moultrie And R.G. Thomas's ''The Right To Underwrite? An Actuarial Perspective With A Difference", Charles L. Trowbridge

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

This interesting but controversial paper studies a subject I too have seriously considered. Nearly a decade ago I was commissioned to prepare a monograph that appeared in 1989 under the auspices of the Actuarial Education and Research Fund under the title Fundamental Concepts of Actuarial Science. 1 Chapter VII of this work, "Classification, Selection, and Antiselection," claims that the cluster of ideas surrounding these three words form a fundamental actuarial concept. I have recently reviewed this monograph (hereinafter FCAS) and am struck by the dissimilarities between the two treatments. The authors of "The Right to Underwrite?" (RTU) were unaware of …

Comments On Some Parametric Models For Mortality Tables, Kam C. Yuen

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

Parametric models for the entire age pattern of mortality have been suggested by Heligman and Pollard (1980) and Carriere (1992). The former is designed to fit the classical mortality pattern while the latter is supported by a statistical theory. Insights into their papers motivate us to consider a variation of the Heligman-Pollard model. We also apply these models to the 1993 Hong Kong Assured Lives Mortality Tables as well as the 1991 Hong Kong Female Life Table. This paper is not intended to construct a better parametric model for mortality tables; the main purpose is simply to provide insights into …

Fuzzy Underwriting: An Application Of Fuzzy Logic To Medical Underwriting, Per-Johan Horgby, Ralf Lohse, Nicola-Alexander Sittaro

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

One of the most difficult issues in the medical underwriting of life insurance applicants is diabetes mellitus. Compiling the prognosticating parameters for diabetic applicants results in a complex system of mutually interacting factors. In addition, neither the prognosticating factors themselves nor their impact on the mortality risk is clear cut. We show how a fuzzy inference system can be used in underwriting diabetes mellitus. A fuzzy inference system can cope with the imprecise nature of medical parameters by converting them into fuzzy sets and aggregating them using mathematical techniques. The fuzzy underwriting system presented goes further than previous applications of …

Actuarial Model Assumptions For Australian Inflation, Equity Returns, And Interest Rates, Michael Sherris

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

Though actuaries have developed several types of stochastic investment models for inflation, stock market returns, and interest rates, there are two commonly used in practice: autoregressive time series models with normally distributed errors, and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models. ARCH models are particularly suited when there is heteroscedasticity in inflation and interest rate series. In such cases nonnormal residuals are found in the empirical data. This paper examines whether Australian univariate inflation and interest rate data are consistent with autoregressive time series and ARCH model assumptions.

Pricing Earthquake Exposure Using Modeling, Debra L. Werland, Joseph W. Pitts

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

This paper demonstrates a practical methodology for determining a statewide rate level indication for the earthquake insurance and for determining more equitable territorial relativities within a state. The methodology is based on the output from a certain commercially available earthquake modeling software package. The methodology addresses some of the complex issues involved in pricing earthquake insurance exposure and potential regulatory acceptance. The paper also features a section dealing with the net cost of reinsurance in the proposed direct rates. A final consideration is the treatment of a model's output when it is believed the modeled results art' less than fully …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 4, No. 2, 1996, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

ARTICLES

Methodologies for Determining Reserve Liabilities in the Workers Compensation High Deductible Program • Jerome J. Siewert

Third Party Administrator (TPA) Service Pricing and Incentive Contracts • Hou-Wen Jeng

Annuity Choices for Pensioners • M. Zaki Khoransee

Pension Funding by Normal Costs or Amortization of Unfunded Liabilities • Keith P. Sharp

What We Say in the NAIC Annual Statement Blank Actuarial Opinion • Kenneth W. Faig, Jr.

Constrained Forecasting of the Number of IBNR Claims • Louis G. Doray

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska. Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 4, No.1, 1996, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

ARTICLES

An Approach to Estimating Market Value and Duration of Interest-Sensitive Whole Life Contracts • Thomas J. Merfeld

Participating GICs: Performance Attribution Analysis • Alec Stais and John P. Toohey III

Asset Allocation in Investing to Meet Liabilities • Anthony Dardis and Vinh Loi Huynh

A Possibilistic Linear Programming Method for Asset Allocation • Lijia Guo and Zhen Huang

Nonmedical Limits in Individual Life Insurance • James B. Ross and Shalini Perumpral

A Proposed New System of Financing Health Care in Singapore • Robert Keng Heong Lian and Loi Soh Loi

Concentration in American Property-Casualty Companies • Edward Nissan

Bias …

Discussion Of Theodore Konshak's "Disclosure And Confidentiality Requirements Of Corporate Pension Plan Actuaries", Richard Daskais, Brian A. Jones

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

No abstract provided.

Constrained Forecasting Of The Number Of Ibnr Claims, Louis G. Doray

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

We consider the problem of forecasting the number of claims incurred. After subtracting the number of claims reported to date, the number of claims incurred but not reported (IBNR) can be forecasted. The basic model assumes that the number of claims per accident period follows an autoregressive moving average time series process. Instead of assuming the data are available in the usual claim run-off triangle format, we assume that the only data available are the number of claims reported at the valuation date for each accident interval of an observation period. Box-Jenkins methods are used to forecast the ultimate number …

A Possibilistic Linear Programming Method For Asset Allocation, Lijia Guo, Zhen Huang

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

The mean-variance method has been one of the popular methods used by most financial institutions in making the decision of asset allocation since the 1950s. This paper presents an alternative method for asset allocation. Instead of minimizing risk for a given expected return or maximizing expected return for a fixed level of risk, our approach considers simultaneously maximizing the rate of return of portfolio, minimizing the risk of obtaining lower return, and maximizing the possibility of reaching higher return. By using a triangular possibilistic distribution to describe the uncertainty of the return, we introduce a possibilistic linear programming model which …

Annuity Choices For Pensioners, Zaki M. Khorasanee

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

We consider two ways for a retiree to obtain a pension from a retirement fund: through the purchase of a whole life annuity providing a level monetary income; and through the withdrawal of income from a fund invested in equities. Deterministic and stochastic models are used to assess the risks and benefits associated with each approach. In each case the projected cash flows are compared with those from a whole life annuity providing an income linked to price inflation. We conclude that, although each of the two options conSidered involves significant risks, each method may be attractive to certain groups …

A Proposal For Improving The System Of Financing Health Care In Singapore, Robert Keng Heong Lian, Loi Soh Loi

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

Like many other countries, including the United States, Singapore faces the dual problems of rising health care costs and an aging population. To cope with these problems, the Singapore government introduced the Medishield scheme in 1989 that provides low cost catastrophic medical insurance coverage. The scheme suffers from a serious deficiency, however: coverage ceases at age 70. This deficiency is exacerbated by Medishield's premium payment structure which is akin to the premium structure of a one year renewable term policy so no reserves are developed. As a result, coverage beyond age 70 requires exorbitant premiums that are beyond the reach …

Nonmedical Limits In Individual Life Insurance, James B. Ross, Shalini E. Perumpral

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

This paper shows data that illustrate the substantial variation among nonmedical schedules and the dramatic increase in their amount limits from 1972 through 1992. Coefficients of variation are analyzed for several data subsets. We find that the variation of schedules in the sample of all firms has increased throughout the 1972-1992 period for issue ages up to 30, but has declined for issue ages beyond 30 during the 1982-1992 period. For the non-New York and stock companies our statistical tests indicate an increase in the variability of schedules over the full period 1972 to 1992.

Pension Funding By Normal Costs Or Amortization Of Unfunded Liabilities, Keith P. Sharp

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

We discuss the extent of the actuary's freedom in choosing the funding method for defined benefit pension plans. In particular, we look at funding through a combination of normal costs, amortization of an unfunded liabilities, and fund of assets. The IRS constraint on "reasonable funding methods" is considered, with particular mention of the aggregate entry age normal method. In addition, an algebraic development is performed of year-to-year changes in the status of a plan's funding.

What We Say In The Naic Annual Statement Blank Actuarial Opinion, Kenneth W. Faig Jr.

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

The new language adopted for the actuarial opinion in the National Association of Insurance Commissioners' model actuarial opinion and memorandum regulation has been weakened at the same time the responsibilities of the opining actuary have been increased. The restoration of stronger language to the actuarial opinion would enhance the professional image of the actuary. If the legal environment for professional liability inhibits such a change, the opinion should be changed to describe more precisely the work performed and the conclusion reached by the actuary.

Third Party Administrator (Tpa) Service Pricing And Incentive Contracts, Hou-Wen Jeng

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

This paper addresses a few of the most important pricing issues faced by a third party administrator (TPA) whose main responsibility is claims handling for self·insured employers and self·insured groups. Such pricing issues include the development of service fees using claim closure information, the selection of service durations, and the design of incentive (either activity-based or financially-based) service contracts. Formulas for pricing new and open claims are provided.

Disclosure And Confidentiality Requirements Of Corporate Pension Plan Actuaries, Theodore Konshak

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

Corporate pension plan actuaries are subject to the standards of the Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries. The Joint Board is empowered to establish such standards under the provisions of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, a federal law. In consideration of these statutory standards, this article will discuss whether standards published by professional actuarial organizations have any applicability. The contrast between the disclosure requirements of federal law and the confidentiality standards of the Society of Actuaries will be highlighted.

Asset Allocation In Investing To Meet Liabilities, Anthony Dardis, Vinh Loi Huynh

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

We present some rudimentary concepts on asset/liability management and describe an approach to asset allocation modeling for institutions that invest to meet liabilities. The traditional risk/reward framework of financial economics is used as a starting pOint. The definitions of risk and reward are then refined with regard to the institution under consideration. A simple model of a U.S. life office is examined. We assume that the only investments available are domestic stocks and long-dated government bonds. Stochastic simulation is used to create a large number of future investment scenarios using historical total return data for these asset classes. The ability …

Concentration In American Property-Casualty Companies, Edward Nissan

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

A Theil's entropy index utilizing premiums written as units is employed to measure trends in concentration of the largest 200 property-casualty companies in the United States between 1985 and 1993 based on Best's Insurance Report data. Each of the indexes confirms that concentration trends experienced no increase for the whole period for all 200 firms, the top 20, and subsets of lower ranked companies. Significant differences are observed, however, between groups of companies for the same period.

Methodologies For Determining Reserve Liabilities In The Workers Compensation High Deductible Program, Jerome J. Siewert

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

In this paper I describe several approaches for estimating liabilities under a high deductible program, including a proposal for a more sophisticated approach relying upon a loss distribution model. The discussion addresses several related issues dealing with deductible size and mix, absence of longterm histories, and the determination of consistent loss development factors among deductible limits. In addition, I propose several approaches for estimating aggregate loss limit charges, if any, and the asset value for associated servicing revenue.

Participating Gics: Performance Attribution Analysis, Alec Stais, John P. Toohey Iii

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

The increasing popularity of participating GICs has created a need for an objective understanding of their performance. The fixed income attribution techniques are not adequate for measuring participating GIC performance because they typically restrict performance measurement to concepts such as duration management, sector rotation, and issue selection. We develop an attribution technique based on four components or effects that are helpful in explaining the changes in credited rates. They are the constant duration effect, the reinvestment effect, the cash flow effect, and the investment effect. The underlying mathematical approach to calculating these effects is presented along with examples.

Bias Of Excluding High And Low Data For Long-Tailed Distributions, Cheng-Sheng Peter Wu

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

Property and casualty actuaries frequently employ a technique of averaging (called high-low averages) that excludes the same amount of data at both ends. For example, (0 in selecting loss development factors, the middle three of the latest five years or the middle eight of latest 12 quarters sometimes are used, or (ii) in calculating average expense ratios, the largest expense ratios and the smallest expense ratios may be removed from the sample. Although highlow averages can reduce the impact of influential data on analyzed results, the averages will result in downward bias when they are applied to pricing or reserving …

An Approach To Estimating Market Value And Duration Of Interest-Sensitive Whole Life Contracts, Thomas J. Merfeld

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

A fixed premium interest·sensitive whole life contract is analyzed in order to estimate its market value. In addition, using various definitions of duration, we determine the duration of the contract for each definition. The results of this analysis have implications for market value accounting of life insurance liabilities and for life company portfolio management.

Nonmedical Limits In Individual Life Insurance, James B. Ross, Shalini E. Perumpral

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

This paper shows data that illustrate the substantial variation among nonmedical schedules and the dramatic increase in their amount limits from 1972 through 1992. Coefficients of variation are analyzed for several data subsets. We find that the variation of schedules in the sample of all firms has increased throughout the 1972-1992 period for issue ages up to 30, but has declined for issue ages beyond 30 during the 1982-1992 period. For the non-New York and stock companies our statistical tests indicate an increase in the variability of schedules over the full period 1972 to 1992.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 3, No.2, 1995, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

ARTICLES

Measuring and Managing Catastrophe Risk • Ronald T. Kozlowski and Stuart B. Mathewson

Discussion • Rade T. Musulin & Authors' Reply

Sensitivity Testing of Property/Casualty Cash Flows • Ralph S. Blanchard, III and Eduardo P. Marchen

A Pension Plan Incorporating Both Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Principles • M. Zaki Khorasanee

Expected Loss Development in Workers' Compensation Pricing: A Shift in Credibility • Christopher J. Poteet

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska. Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of Omaha ○ Ruy Cardoso, Actuarial Frameworks ○ Samuel Cox, Georgia State University ○ David …

Sensitivity Testing Of Prdperty/Casualty Cash Flows, Ralph S. Blanchard Iii, Eduardo P. Marchena

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

The paper outlines an approach that has evolved at Aetna through ten years of property/casualty insurance cash flow testing. Methodologies and approaches to setting parameters reflecting both default and call/prepayment risk are discussed for major invested asset categories. Modeling runoff cash flows for a base scenario (and, for some of these assets, shocked scenarios) also is examined for major non-invested asset categories. Loss reserve cash flow modeling is not addressed, except for a brief description of one approach to shocking projected flows. Finally, various alternatives are given for presenting cash flow testing results to management and non-actuarial audiences.

Discussion Of Leonard T. Guarini And Edward P. Lotkowski's "Model Year Rating For Automobile Liability And Injury Coverages", Cheng-Sheng Peter Wu

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

No abstract provided.

Surveillance Of Life Insurer Solvency: A Comparison Of Stock And The Multiple Scenario Cash Flow Financial Stress Tests, Ronald W. Spahr, Paul L. Gronewoller

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

The solvency of life insurance companies may be threatened by interest rate risk when the maturities of assets and liabilities are mismatched. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners' (NAIC) multiple scenario cashflow test (MSCFT) and the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) net portfolio value model (stock) approaches to financial stress tests are illustrated and analyzed with respect to their capacity to estimate the impact of potential changes in interest rates on life insurance company capital and surplus. Each approach is illustrated with the assets and liabilities of three hypothetical life insurance company capital levels (high, average, and below average) and …

Expected Loss Development In Workers' Compensation Pricing: A Shift In Credibility, Christopher J. Poteet

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

This paper shows that expected loss development is equivalent to adjusting the full credibility standard and applying credibility by policy period. Expected loss development should not be used in workers' compensation ratemaking. The credibility is correct before being adjusted.

Decision Making Under Conflicting Criteria In Pension Valuations: An Expected Utility Model, Lisa Lipowski Posey, Arnold F. Shapiro

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

Many of the criteria used by actuaries when selecting assumptions for pension plan valuations often conflict. As a result, actuaries must weigh the various costs and benefits associated with a particular set of assumptions. We use expected utility theory to model the process of chOOSing actuarial assumptions when faced with potentially conflicting criteria. The three criteria considered are prudence, best estimate, and conservatism. The actual contribution chosen by the actuary is found to depend on the contribution level that triggers a red flag with respect to tax deductibility. If this level is relatively low, the actuary chooses a high contribution …