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Sampling Concepts, Paul Boyd, Ph.D. Jan 2002

Sampling Concepts, Paul Boyd, Ph.D.

MBA Faculty Conference Papers & Journal Articles

The usefulness of any research is dependent upon how well the group studied represents the group about which decisions are to be made or conclusions drawn. That is, it depends upon how well the sample reflects relevant characteristics of the population. When it is possible to study every member of that group there is no problem, for on these occasions we can easily calculate the exact attribute (parameter) of interest for our population.

For example, if we were interested in determining the average number of gallons of gasoline sold to customers at our service station yesterday, we could add up ...


Journal Of Actuarial Practice Volume 10 (2002) -- Contents And Masthead Jan 2002

Journal Of Actuarial Practice Volume 10 (2002) -- Contents And Masthead

Journal of Actuarial Practice 1993-2006

Contents

Editorial Policy: Topics suitable for this journal include AIDS, annuity products, asset-liability matching, cash-flow testing, casualty rate making, credibility theory, credit insurance, disability insurance, expense analysis, experience studies, FASB issues, financial reporting, group insurance, health insurance, individual risk taking, insurance regulations, international issues, investments, liability insurance, loss reserves, marketing, pensions, pricing issues, product development, reinsurance, reserving issues, risk-based capital, risk theory, social insurance, solvency issues, taxation, valuation issues, and workers' compensation

Review Process

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska

Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of Omaha ○ Ruy Cardoso, Actuarial Frameworks ○ Samuel Cox, Georgia State ...


Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 10, 2002, Colin Ramsay , Editor Jan 2002

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 10, 2002, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice 1993-2006

ARTICLES

Communicating Effectively with Words, Numbers, and Pictures: Drawing on Experience • Karolina Duklan and Michael A. Martin

Unearned Premiums and Deferred Policy Acquisition Expenses in Automobile Extended Warranty Insurance • Joseph Cheng

Can Utility Maximization Models Assist With Retirement Planning? • Zaki Khorasanee

Dynamic Funding and Investment Strategy for Defined Benefit Pension Schemes: A Model Incorporating Asset-Liability Matching Criteria • Shih-Chieh Chang, Cheng-Hsien Tsai, Chia-Jung Tien, and Chang- Ye Tu

Model Risk and Surplus Management Under a Stochastic Interest Rate Process •Jennifer L. Wang and Rachel J. Huang

Some Comments on the Pricing of an Exotic Excess of Loss Treaty •Jean-François ...


Dynamic Funding And Investment Strategy For Defined Benefit Pension Schemes: A Model Incorporating Asset-Liability Matching Criteria, Shih-Chieh Chang, Cheng-Hsien Tsai, Chia-Jung Tien, Chang-Ye Tu Jan 2002

Dynamic Funding And Investment Strategy For Defined Benefit Pension Schemes: A Model Incorporating Asset-Liability Matching Criteria, Shih-Chieh Chang, Cheng-Hsien Tsai, Chia-Jung Tien, Chang-Ye Tu

Journal of Actuarial Practice 1993-2006

This paper studies the dynamic funding policy and investment strategy for defined benefit pension plans using one of the most comprehensive dynamic pension models to date. The model includes three investable assets: one risk free and two risky. The optimal plan decisions are formulated as a stochastic control problem that is solved using dynamic programming. The objective function uses performance measures to take into account the stability and solvency of the plan. The model is then applied to a Taiwanese pension.


Unearned Premiums And Deferred Policy Acquisition Expenses In Automobile Extended Warranty Insurance, Joseph Cheng Jan 2002

Unearned Premiums And Deferred Policy Acquisition Expenses In Automobile Extended Warranty Insurance, Joseph Cheng

Journal of Actuarial Practice 1993-2006

A prorata formula is commonly used to calculate unearned premium reserves in property-casualty insurance. I believe, however, that an exposure-adjusted formula is more appropriate in automobile extended warranties. This paper describes the exposure-adjusted approach to calculate the unearned premium reserves of an automobile extended warranty insurance program, to test the adequacy of the calculated reserves, and to determine the allowable deferred policy acquisition expenses from an insurance company's perspective.


Further Remarks On Risk Sources Measuring: The Case Of A Life Annuity Portfolio, Mariarosaria Coppola, Emilia Di Lorenzo, Marilena Sibillo Jan 2002

Further Remarks On Risk Sources Measuring: The Case Of A Life Annuity Portfolio, Mariarosaria Coppola, Emilia Di Lorenzo, Marilena Sibillo

Journal of Actuarial Practice 1993-2006

The paper considers a model that allows the actuary to measure the riskiness connected to the randomness of projected mortality tables in evaluating a portfolio of life annuities, obtaining a measure to reflect the risk associated with the randomness of the projection. The coherence of the risk parameters with the specific nature of the considered risk sources is also discussed. Numerical examples illustrate the results, showing the importance of the risk components in terms of the number of policies and comparing measure tools obtained by means of two procedures.


Communicating Effectively With Words, Numbers, And Pictures: Drawing On Experience, Karolina Duklan, Michael A. Martin Jan 2002

Communicating Effectively With Words, Numbers, And Pictures: Drawing On Experience, Karolina Duklan, Michael A. Martin

Journal of Actuarial Practice 1993-2006

In this paper, we discuss techniques for developing effective communication skills, focusing in particular on technical writing, the use of graphics, and presentation. The key principles of effective communication that we propose to actuaries are as follows:

• Identify your audience and consider their needs and abilities;

• Focus on substantive content;

• Choose appropriate communication tools;

• Use language that is simple, concrete, and familiar;

• Integrate text, numbers, and graphics;

• Respond to information complexity creatively.

We focus in particular on the use of graphics as a communications tool as they are an efficient and potentially highly effective means of conveying information. We also ...


Can Utility-Maximization Models Assist With Retirement Planning?, Zaki Khorasanee Jan 2002

Can Utility-Maximization Models Assist With Retirement Planning?, Zaki Khorasanee

Journal of Actuarial Practice 1993-2006

Utility-maximization models for optimizing portfolio choices can be subdivided into two classes: those based on maximizing the expected utility of lifetime consumption and those based on maximizing the expected utility of retirement wealth. It is argued that the first type of model, which optimizes both saving and investment decisions, is difficult to apply in practice because of inadequate (or unreliable) information about individual preferences. Although the second type of model only optimizes investment decisions, it is of greater practical value because fewer data on individual preferences are required. The second type of model is used to derive formulae for the ...


Improving Mortality: A Rule Of Thumb And Regulatory Tool, John H. Pollard Jan 2002

Improving Mortality: A Rule Of Thumb And Regulatory Tool, John H. Pollard

Journal of Actuarial Practice 1993-2006

We develop a simple exact formula for determining cohort life expectancies under constant continuous uniform improvement in mortality using only a cross-sectional (period) Gompertz life table for the lives concerned and a simple approximation applicable to all life tables. The present values of annuities for such lives can be determined simply and accurately across the whole age span.


A Note On The Parallelogram Method For Computing The On-Level Premium, David P.M. Scollnik, Wai Man Sara Lau Jan 2002

A Note On The Parallelogram Method For Computing The On-Level Premium, David P.M. Scollnik, Wai Man Sara Lau

Journal of Actuarial Practice 1993-2006

This paper discusses the differences appearing in the descriptions of the parallelogram method for the determination of earned premium at current rate levels given by McClenahan (1996) and Brown and Gottlieb (2001). It observes that the former is consistent with the method of extending exposures while the latter is not. An illustration is provided. This paper also discusses two other approaches to the determination of the earned premium.


Modeling Size-Of-Loss Distributions For Exact Data In Winbugs, David P.M. Scollnik Jan 2002

Modeling Size-Of-Loss Distributions For Exact Data In Winbugs, David P.M. Scollnik

Journal of Actuarial Practice 1993-2006

This paper discusses how the statistical software WinBUGS can be used to implement a Bayesian analysis of several popular severity models applied to exact size-of-Ioss data. The particular models targeted are the gamma, inverse gamma, loggamma, lognormal, (two-parameter) Pareto, inverse (two-parameter) Pareto, Weibull, and inverse Weibull distributions. It is possible to implement additional size-of-Ioss models (including those for truncated data) using methods analogous to those described herein.


Some Comments On The Pricing Of An Exotic Excess Of Loss Treaty, Jean-Francois Walhin Jan 2002

Some Comments On The Pricing Of An Exotic Excess Of Loss Treaty, Jean-Francois Walhin

Journal of Actuarial Practice 1993-2006

This paper uses a multivariate analog of Panjer's algorithm to develop a method for pricing a complex excess of loss treaty. The treaty is such that some layers inure to the benefit of other layers. The structure of this treaty is discussed. Numerical examples are provided.


Model Risks And Surplus Management Under A Stochastic Interest Rate Process, Jennifer L. Wang, Rachel J. Huang Jan 2002

Model Risks And Surplus Management Under A Stochastic Interest Rate Process, Jennifer L. Wang, Rachel J. Huang

Journal of Actuarial Practice 1993-2006

This paper uses simulations to explore the effects of incorrectly identifying the underlying interest rate process on assets, liabilities, and surplus levels. We show that mismodeling the interest rate (called model risk) could not only lead to a misstatement of the company's surplus, but could also cause a mismatch between the company's assets and liabilities. Our simulations demonstrate that three aspects of interest rates affect model risk: (i) volatility, (ii) level of long-term interest rate, and (iii) the speed at which the drift rate adjusts. We conclude that asset-liability managers should not ignore the impact of the model ...