Models and Methods Commons^™

A Quick, Free, Somewhat Easy-To-Read Introduction To Empirical Social Science Research Methods, Christopher S. Horne

Open Educational Resources

A free, brief textbook to introduce students to the core concepts of empirical social science research methods. This textbook has been used as the main textbook in an undergraduate social science research methods course (supplemented by many in-class exercises and research reports) and as the basis of a review in preparation for graduate-level study in research methods and program evaluation. A note to instructors: If you use this text in any way, whether as the primary text, a supplemental text, or a recommended resource, I ask only two small favors: (1) When you make it available to students, please always …

The Shrinking Center: When Are Centrists More Effective Lawmakers?, Benjamin Pontz

Student Publications

Legislative effectiveness is an inherently amorphous -- even subjective -- concept. Yet, arguably, it is among the most important considerations when evaluating the performance of members of Congress. Using Volden and Wiseman's index, the Legislative Effectiveness Score (LES), I evaluate when ideology informs or predicts effectiveness in passing laws, which I conceptualize as the fundamental role of legislators. In particular, I assess the extent to which centrists are more or less effective than their more partisan peers. I find that, while the number of centrists has declined precipitously, their ideology does not -- at least at the broadest level -- …

Challenges To The Study Of Long Wars, Zachary C. Shirkey

Publications and Research

Rationalist, psychological, and domestic politics approaches have all generated internally consistent, plausible explanations for long wars. But sorting out which of these explanations is most valid is quite difficult, because definitional questions bedevil the study of war duration, and more importantly, because it is very hard to evaluate the evidence for competing explanations of war duration. The latter difficulty arises for three reasons. First, many state behaviors are consistent with multiple, competing explanations of long wars. Second, in most states, multiple people play important roles in crafting foreign policies, meaning different leaders may have different primary motives for continuing a …

Coalitions Matter: Citizenship, Women, And Quota Adoption In Africa, Alice J. Kang, Aili Mari Tripp

Department of Political Science: Faculty Publications

We provide new theory and evidence of the role of domestic women’s coalitions in the adoption of gender quotas. Previous research has shown the importance of women’s movements to policy change. We show that specific types of mobilization, often multiethnic in character, are a more precise way of describing these influences. Using a new dataset of coalitions in 50 countries in Africa (1989–2014), we first examine where coalitions are likely to emerge. Controlling for factors that correlate with their formation, we find that when domestic women’s organizations form a coalition for quotas, governments are more likely to adopt them and …

An Evaluation Of The 2016 Election Polls In The United States, Courtney Kennedy, Mark Blumenthal, Scott Clement, Joshua D. Clinton, Claire Durand, Charles Franklin, Kyley Mcgeeney, Lee Miringoff, Kristen M. Olson, Douglas Rivers, Lydia Saad, G. Evans Witt, Christopher Wlezien

Department of Sociology: Faculty Publications

The 2016 presidential election was a jarring event for polling in the United States. Preelection polls fueled high-profile predictions that Hillary Clinton’s likelihood of winning the presidency was about 90 percent, with estimates ranging from 71 to over 99 percent. When Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidency, there was a widespread perception that the polls failed. But did the polls fail? And if so, why? Those are among the central questions addressed by an American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) ad hoc committee. This paper presents the committee’s analysis of the performance of preelection polls in …

Polarization In American Presidential Politics; Looking For The Effects Of Citizens United And Increased Campaign Spending, Subrina Oswalt

Merge

No abstract provided.

The Student Debt Crisis And Political Polarization In The Millennial Generation, Dylan Wallace

Honors Undergraduate Theses

According to the Pew Research Center, the modern wave of political polarization began in 1994, and is the strongest today than it has ever been during the 23-year period. (2007) Polarization in the US party system is evidenced by several factors including: growing consistent partisan views, partisan antipathy, ideological bubbles, growing difference in preferences, a shrinking political center, and the lack of political compromise. (Pew Research Center 2014) The question I attempt to answer in this thesis is on the factors associated with political polarization within the millennial generation. One of the most pressing issues to this generation is what …

The Incarceration Nation: Interpreting The United States Imprisonment Rate, Robert Sharp

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This research paper begins by establishing the importance of studying the United States’ incarceration rate. Overall mass imprisonment and racial disparities in sentencing are two of the main concerns when discussing this issue. Previously published literature has indicated various contributory factors to the racial disparity in sentencing, such as judge’s discretion, educational attainment, and policy implementation. This paper tests five hypotheses that assess which factors influence the incarceration rate. The independent variables are overall minority population, public ideology, educational attainment, unemployment, and poverty. Each hypothesis predicts positive or negative relationships between the United States incarceration rate and the corresponding independent …

Judicial Conflicts And Voting Agreement: Evidence From Interruptions At Oral Argument, Tonja Jacobi, Kyle Rozema

Faculty Articles

This Article asks whether observable conflicts between Supreme Court justices—interruptions between the justices during oral arguments—can predict breakdowns in voting outcomes that occur months later. To answer this question, we built a unique dataset based on the transcripts of Supreme Court oral arguments and justice votes in cases from 1960 to 2015. We find that on average a judicial pair is seven percent less likely to vote together in a case for each interruption that occurs between them in the oral argument for that case. While a conflict between the justices that leads to both interruptions and a breakdown in …

Diversity, Tenure, And Dissent, Joanna Shepherd

Faculty Articles

Although academics have long recognized that institutions such as opinion-assignment procedures and voting order might influence the propensity to dissent, empirical studies have failed to consider the impact of collegiality and personal relationships on dissent rates. Thus, in this short Essay, I empirically test whether some of the judges’ assertions are consistent with the data. I test whether various measures of diversity are associated with dissent rates in state supreme courts. I find that diversity in many areas—gender, race, age, religion, home state, and political affiliation—is associated with higher levels of dissent. In contrast, diversity in the jobs that judges …

Forecasting Changes In Religiosity And Existential Security With An Agent-Based Model, Ross J. Gore, Carlos Lemos, F. Leron Shults, Wesley J. Wildman

VMASC Publications

We employ existing data sets and agent-based modeling to forecast changes in religiosity and existential security among a collective of individuals over time. Existential security reflects the extent of economic, socioeconomic and human development provided by society. Our model includes agents in social networks interacting with one another based on the education level of the agents, the religious practices of the agents, and each agent's existential security within their natural and social environments. The data used to inform the values and relationships among these variables is based on rigorous statistical analysis of the International Social Survey Programme Religion Module (ISSP) …

Community-Based Initiatives For Neighborhood And Community Rehabilitation: A Case Study Of The Mission District, San Francisco, California, Francesca Monique Gallardo

Cal Poly Humboldt theses and projects

Through the case study of San Francisco, CA’s Mission District, this research project addresses how community-based affordable housing development is operationalized to rehabilitate communities and neighborhoods experiencing effects of gentrification, mass displacement, and cultural dilution. My goals were to identify how the processes of building a sense of community, trust, and cohesion- rehabilitating and critical to affordable housing development efforts in the Mission District? And, how are nonprofit community development organizations engaging with these processes in collaboration with citizen and community partners? The final objective is to provide evidence-based strategies to assist other at-risk minority communities and neighborhoods in the …

Inclusion Of Blocking Power For A Complete Voting Power Analysis In The Imf, Shiwani Varal

Senior Independent Study Theses

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculates the voting power of a country by dividing the total of one member's votes by the total of all members' votes. This method of calculating the power of a state judges power as voting weight. However, voting weights are the total number of votes a country has in an institution, while voting power is the influence a country has on a policy decision. A better approach to calculate this voting power within an institution is by using voting power indices. However, literature only calculates the winning power, while voting power is defined as the …

Strengthening The M&E System Of Peace Corps Colombia, Samuel Burke

Capstone Collection

In 1961, when the Peace Corps was established, Colombia was the first country chosen to receive volunteers. The program ran for 20 years, with volunteers working all over the country in various sectors. Then in 1981, due to the increasing violence from the guerilla civil war, the US government decided to withdraw the volunteers and suspend the Colombia program. After a 29-year hiatus, at the request of the Colombian government, the Peace Corps was invited back to Colombia in 2010.

The Peace Corps Colombia post currently has two programs, Practical English for Success (PES), established first; and, Community Economic Development …

Text Analysis In R, Kasper Welbers, Wouter Van Atteveldt, Kenneth Benoit

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Computational text analysis has become an exciting research field with many applications in communication research. It can be a difficult method to apply, however, because it requires knowledge of various techniques, and the software required to perform most of these techniques is not readily available in common statistical software packages. In this teacher’s corner, we address these barriers by providing an overview of general steps and operations in a computational text analysis project, and demonstrate how each step can be performed using the R statistical software. As a popular open-source platform, R has an extensive user community that develops and …

Modeling Voting Dynamics In A Two-Party System: Social Interaction And Media Consumption, Caleb Ignace

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Multiple Baskets: Diverse Racial Frames And The 2016 Republican Primary, Michael Lee

Publications and Research

A strain of racist, xenophobic populism is sweeping through many democracies, jumping from the fringes of political discourse to the mainstream. Understanding how Donald Trump was able to take power while making explicitly racist appeals is vital to understanding this phenomenon. This article examines the 2016 Republican primary, drawing on data from the National Election Study pilot survey to explore how, and why some voters favored Trump over other Republicans. Were Trump voters reacting to the adverse economic effects of globalization, or the 2008 financial crisis? Were they traditional “Southern Strategy” Republicans? Were they white nationalists? While I find evidence …

To Build The Fire Of Revolution, Stephen Roddewig

James Madison Undergraduate Research Journal (JMURJ)

Scholarly examinations of naturalism in Jack London’s 1908 short story “To Build a Fire” often overlook the influence of the socialist political movement. After surveying the American Socialist Party movement and London’s activism in “How I Became a Socialist,” this essay uses the frame of Marxist rhetorical criticism to inspect sociopolitical themes in London’s famous story. London’s critiques of Individualism in “How I Became a Socialist” parallel one of his concerns in “To Build a Fire” as his unnamed protagonist progresses through the Yukon with the larger ideals of American society and the capitalist economy guiding his actions. Although masculinity, …

From Kipat To Kathmandu: A Failed Integration Of Limbu People Into The Nepali State In Biblate, Ilam, Andrew Blunt

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

In eastern Nepal, a territory historically known as Limbuwan, the Limbu people make up just under 400,000. Historically, this region and its people were accompanied by the practice of kipat, a system of land tenure and management as well as one of community and cultural governance. In 2021 (1964) the Land Act formally ended the practice of the kipat system and transferred all lands to the state held raikar form of tenure. With the end of the practice of kipat came the attempted integration of the Limbu people from their traditional governing systems into the burgeoning Nepali democracy. A combination …

Introduction To "Migration And The Crisis Of The Modern Nation State", Frank Jacob, Adam Luedtke

Publications and Research

Introduction to an anthology dealing with the interrelationship between migration and a supposedly existing crisis of the modern nation state.