Urban Studies and Planning Commons^™

Grid Based School Enrollment Forecasting, Richard Lycan, Charles Rynerson

Publications, Reports and Presentations

In this paper we will show how a simple model that is normally based on data for school attendance areas –elementary, middle, and high school, or perhaps planning areas, can be implemented for small grid areas roughly the size of a city block.

Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 To 2023-24, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Kevin Christopher Rancik, Sheila Martin

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2014‐15 and 2023‐24. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period.

David Douglas School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 To 2033-34, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Kevin Christopher Rancik, Ryan Dann

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the David Douglas School District (DDSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on DDSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2014‐15 to 2033‐34 school years.

2013 Annual Population Report Tables (April 15, 2014), Portland State University. Population Research Center

Oregon Population Estimates and Reports

This item contains Oregon population tables. Prepared by Population Research Center, Portland State University, April 15, 2014.

The tables in the tabs in this workbook hold the 2013 population estimates produced by the Population Research Center, Portland State University. The July 1 estimates of total population for counties and cities and towns were certified December 15, 2013. Note that the July 1, 2013 population estimate for Lincoln City was revised and certified to be retroactive to December 31, 2013.

Some tables include the U.S. Census Bureau's decennial Census counts and historical population estimates produced by our Center, and other tables …

Census Data For Gis And Planning Professionals, Charles Rynerson

Publications, Reports and Presentations

This presentation discusses accessing census data, understanding census data and cautionary tales.

Regional Water Providers Consortium Population, Housing Unit, And Household Estimates 1990 To 2013, Charles Rynerson, Kevin Rancik

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Water providers have an ongoing need for estimates and forecasts of the total population and the number of housing units and households within their service areas. While some of the water providers within Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties have obtained this information periodically on an individual basis, a complete and systematic set of estimates and forecasts for all members of the Regional Water Providers Consortium has not been prepared for nearly 10 years. The Portland Water Bureau (PWB), on behalf of the Regional Water Providers Consortium, requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) update service area boundaries …

Estimates Of Population Age Groups (Ages Under 18 Yrs., 18-64 Yrs., And 65 Yrs. And Over) For Oregon And Its Counties, July 1, 2013, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Risa Proehl

Oregon Population Estimates and Reports

The dataset also includes:

• Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2012 (prepared January 2013)
• Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2011 (prepared January 2011)

Certified 2013 Population Estimates For Oregon And Counties, Portland State University. Population Research Center

Oregon Population Estimates and Reports

Certified Population Estimates for Oregon and Its Counties. This item also contains estimates for Incorporated Cities/Towns.

Eagle Point School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 To 2023-24, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Vivian Siu, Kevin Christopher Rancik

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the Eagle Point School District (EPSD) in recent years, forecasts of district‐wide enrollment by grade level and total enrollment of individual schools for the 2014‐ 15 to 2023‐24 school years.

Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2014-15 To 2023-24, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Ryan Dann

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2014‐15 to 2023‐24 school years.

Evaluating Community Analyst For Use In School Demography Studies, Richard Lycan, Charles Rynerson

Publications, Reports and Presentations

This presentation is a case study based on the North Clackamas School District in the Portland metro area showing how CA might be used and which identifies benefits and issues.

Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 To 2022-23, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Vivian Siu, Ryan Dann

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range forecast scenario are also presented for the 10 year period.

Mcminnville School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 To 2022-23, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Ryan Dann, Vivian Siu

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

The McMinnville School District (MSD) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for use in the District’s long‐range planning. The current study integrates information about MSD and updates the work PRC conducted in 2008 and 2011, providing a snapshot of demographic, housing, and school enrollment patterns and trends. This report also presents an extended district‐wide enrollment forecasts for a ten year period from 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 and individual school forecasts for a five year period from 2013‐14 to 2017‐18.

Demographic Update, Charles Rynerson

Publications, Reports and Presentations

A summary of recent U.S., Oregon, and Portland Demographic Trends.

2012 Annual Population Report Tables (April 19, 2013), Portland State University. Population Research Center

Oregon Population Estimates and Reports

This item contains Oregon population tables. Prepared by Population Research Center, Portland State University, January 2013.

Forest Grove School District: Enrollment Forecast 2013-14 To 2022-23, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Vivian Siu, Bimal Rajbhandary, Ryan Dann

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Forest Grove School District (FGSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on FGSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years.

North Clackamas School District Population And Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 To 2022-23, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Kevin Rancik, Vivian Siu

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. After 22 consecutive years of enrollment growth between 1986‐87 and 2008‐09, total K‐12 enrollment in the North Clackamas School District has fallen for four consecutive years. The largest decline occurred between Fall 2011 and Fall 2012 as District enrollment, now 17,044, fell by 236 students. Over …

Junction City School District Population And Enrollment Forecasts, 2013-14 To 2022-23, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Bimal Rajbhandary, Ryan Dann

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report details a range of three scenarios of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts by grade level for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each Enrollment Forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. The forecasts rely on enrollment trends observed through Fall 2012, local area population, housing, and economic trends, and forecasts of population and housing from other studies for Lane County and the City of Junction City.

Estimates Of Population Age Groups (Ages Under 18 Yrs., 18-64 Yrs., And 65 Yrs. And Over) For Oregon And Its Counties, July 1, 2012, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Risa Proehl

Oregon Population Estimates and Reports

Estimates of population age groups for Oregon and its counties.

Lake Oswego School District Population And Enrollment Forecast 2013-14 To 2022-23, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Vivian Siu, Charles Rynerson

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on LOSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years.

Certified 2012 Population Estimates For Oregon And Its Counties, Portland State University. Population Research Center

Oregon Population Estimates and Reports

Certified Population Estimates for Oregon and Its Counties. This item also contains estimates for Incorporated Cities/Towns.

Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2013-14 To 2022-23, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Vivian Siu, Ryan Dann

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. The Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,341 students in Fall 2012, a decrease of 25 students (0.2 percent) from Fall 2011. This is the fourth consecutive year of K‐12 enrollment loss, but the declines of the most recent two years …

Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 To 2021-22, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Vivian Siu, Kevin Rancik

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

The main body of this report presents Oregon City School District (OCSD) district‐wide and individual school forecasts prepared by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The forecasts were prepared in March, 2012, before the school board’s April 16 vote to close Mt. Pleasant and King Elementary Schools and move 6th grade to middle schools. Therefore, the school forecasts represent the status quo as of March, including forecasts for the closed schools and for middle schools consisting of 7th and 8th grade only. A complete report was not issued with the March …

Population Forecast For Yamhill County Oregon, Its Cities And Unincorporated Area 2011-2035, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Risa S. Proehl, Vivian Siu, Kevin Rancik

Oregon Population Estimates and Reports

This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of Yamhill County and produce population forecasts at the county and sub-county level. This report considers recent and historical demographic changes experienced within the County and provides forecasts from 2010 to 2035 in 5-year intervals and for years 2012 and 2032. Expected future populations that result from the most-likely demographic trends throughout Yamhill County are presented in this report. Sub-county populations and forecasts in this study represent the area within each city's urban growth boundary with the exception of …

Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 To 2025-26, Based On October 2011 Enrollments, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Vivian Siu, Ryan Dann, Jason R. Jurjevich

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 46,206 K‐12 students in Fall 2011, an increase of 465 students (1.0 percent) from Fall 2010. This was the third consecutive year of K‐12 growth, a reversal from the 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses between 1997 and 2008. For the three year period since 2008‐09, the District has grown by 1,182 K‐12 students (2.6 percent). This report includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, forecasts of district‐wide enrollment, and Enrollment Forecasts by area of residence (high school clusters, school attendance areas) and by individual school …

2000-2010 Intercensal Estimates: Components Of Population Change, Portland State University. Population Research Center

Oregon Population Estimates and Reports

This item contains only Oregon population tables, comparing 2000 and 2010 census data.

Hillsboro School District: Population And Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 To 2025-26, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Vivian Siu, Ryan Dann

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on Hillsboro School District (HSD) enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts annually from 2012‐13 to 2025‐26 and individual school forecasts annually from 2012‐13 to 2016‐17.

Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2012-13 To 2021-22, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Vivian Siu, Kevin Rancik

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district‐wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past six years. This study includes forecasts of district‐wide enrollment for the 10 years from 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 and forecasts for individual schools for the five years from 2012‐13 to 2016‐17. The 10 year horizon of the district‐wide forecast enhances opportunities for school districts to coordinate long range planning with city and county comprehensive plans, which may extend for 20 or more years. Overall K‐12 enrollment is forecast to increase by 364 students (8 percent) in the next …

Beaverton School District: Population And Enrollment Forecasts 2012-13 To 2025-26, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Bimal Rajbhandary, Kevin Rancik, Vivian Siu

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on BSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual elementary school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2025‐26 school years.

2011 Annual Population Report Tables (March 28, 2012), Portland State University. Population Research Center

Oregon Population Estimates and Reports

There is no report for 2011; this item only contains Oregon population tables. Supplements to the 2011 Population Report are included.

Please note: if a city has not completed and returned its annual housing unit and population questionnaire, its population estimate is held constant from the previous year.