Quantitative, Qualitative, Comparative, and Historical Methodologies Commons^™

Community Safety Investments: Violence Prevention Initiatives Across New York State, Rebecca Balletto, Jeffrey A. Butts, Sheyla A. Delgado, Justice D. Evans, Gina Moreno, Elia Del Carmen Solano-Patricio, Kathleen A. Tomberg, Michael Rempel, René Ropac

Publications and Research

At the request of New York State's Division of Criminal Justice Services (DCJS), researchers from John Jay College of Criminal Justice conducted an assessment of over a decade of state-funded violence prevention initiatives implemented at the county level. Beginning in 2010 and expanding significantly after 2021, these initiatives were adopted by nearly two dozen counties by 2014. Research teams from the Research and Evaluation Center (JohnJayREC) and the Data Collaborative for Justice (DCJ) analyzed county-level trends in serious and violent crime between 2010 and 2023 to assess the potential impact of these investments on community safety outcomes. The study aimed …

Minor Role Iii: Youth Under Age 18 And New York City Violence, Jeffrey A. Butts, Gina Moreno

Publications and Research

Researchers at the John Jay College Research and Evaluation Center analyzed NYPD arrest data from 2006 to 2024 to assess trends in felony assault, felony robbery, and felony weapon offenses across age groups. The study examined whether New York’s “Raise the Age” law, which shifted most youth under 18 out of adult court, influenced violent crime patterns. Although arrests rose across all age groups following the COVID-19 pandemic, trends among youth under 18 generally mirrored those of older age groups. The findings suggest no clear evidence that the law caused a youth-specific increase in violent crime.

Major Crime Trends Differ In New York City And New York State, Jeffrey A. Butts, Gina Moreno

Publications and Research

Researchers at the John Jay College Research and Evaluation Center analyzed police-reported index crimes across New York State from 2010 to 2024, focusing on trends in violent and property offenses across three regional groups: New York City, its surrounding suburbs, and Upstate New York. While violent and property crimes declined statewide through 2020, both surged in NYC and its suburbs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Upstate regions showed continued or renewed declines. Per capita crime rates reveal more modest increases in NYC and notable decreases in other areas, underscoring regional disparities in crime trends post-2020.

Synthesizing The Global English-Language Abortion Narrative: A Comparative Analysis Of Media Discourse, Amy L. Adamczyk, Lindsay J. Lerner

Publications and Research

Abortion is one of the most politically divisive topics currently being discussed in the media. No study has yet attempted to make cross-national comparisons assessing the nuances associated with various views on abortion in the English public press. Using an original hand-coded sample of over 800 English-language newspaper articles from 41 countries that mentioned abortion, we examine how country-level influences and newspaper characteristics shape newspaper portrayals of abortion. Our three-level hierarchical models find that democracy and the freedom it engenders increase the likelihood that newspapers discuss laws, policies, and government claimsmakers when abortion is mentioned. When abortion is legal, newspapers …

Minor Role Ii: Youth Under Age 18 And New York City Violence, Jeffrey A. Butts, Gina Moreno

Publications and Research

Researchers from John Jay College of Criminal Justice's Research and Evaluation Center analyzed NYPD arrest data from 2006 to 2024 (with 2024 figures estimated) to assess trends in felony assault, felony robbery, and felony weapon offenses across three age groups: under 18, 18–24, and 25 and older. The study examined concerns about youth crime following New York State’s “Raise the Age” law, which shifted most cases involving individuals under 18 to family court by 2019. While arrests rose across all age groups during the COVID-19 pandemic, trends among youth generally paralleled those of adults. Robbery arrests among youth increased more …

Past And Present Of The Cvs: Empirical Research And Evidence-Based Policy, Kevin T. Wolff

Publications and Research

In this keynote address, I emphasized the critical role of accurate crime measurement in developing evidence-based policies. I discussed the "dark figure of crime," highlighting how many crimes go unreported, and stressed the importance of victimization surveys in uncovering these hidden crimes to provide a more complete picture of criminal activity.

I also explored how technological advancements, particularly AI, are transforming how we collect and analyze crime data. While AI offers significant benefits in predictive policing and resource allocation, I cautioned about the risks of bias and privacy issues that must be managed carefully.

Regional collaboration, standardization, and inclusivity are …

Collateral Consequences: The Effects Of Justice Processing For Violations Of Drug Laws In New York City, John K. Roman, Gregory Haugan, Benjamin Schapiro, Sofia Rodriguez

Publications and Research

As part of the NYC Police Reform and Reinvention Collaborative, the Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice partnered with the Research and Evaluation Center at John Jay College and the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago to examine economic factors related to drug-related crimes and arrests. Focusing on Task 84 of the Reform Initiative Tracker, NORC researchers analyzed public data to explore how neighborhood-level economic indicators, such as property values and tax assessments, correlate with drug-related criminal justice contacts. The study supports ongoing efforts to implement and monitor reforms across New York City.

The Osborne Association Prepare Program: Recidivism Analysis, Kathleen A. Tomberg, Gina Moreno

Publications and Research

The Research and Evaluation Center (REC) at John Jay College of Criminal Justice partnered with the Osborne Association to evaluate Osborne’s Prepare program that aimed to improve relationships between formerly incarcerated fathers and their children using a family-centered approach. The workshops focused on parenting and workforce skills, and were supplemented with one year of follow-up support. The JohnJayREC team examined data from 578 participants from cohorts one through 47. The research team’s findings suggest Prepare was successful in helping individuals reconnect with their children and families.

Color Contrast: Racial And Ethnic Disparities In New York City Law Enforcement, Gina Moreno, Richard A. Espinobarros, Sheyla A. Delgado, Jeffrey A. Butts

Publications and Research

Researchers at the John Jay College Research and Evaluation Center examined racial and ethnic disparities in arrest rates across New York City neighborhoods, focusing on assault and larceny offenses. Using 911 call data and demographic controls, the study grouped neighborhoods by proportions of Black and Hispanic residents and analyzed arrest patterns. While arrests of Black and Hispanic individuals were more common in neighborhoods with higher populations of these groups, the arrest-to-resident ratios revealed disproportionate impacts, especially for larceny. The findings highlight the importance of monitoring disparities to promote equitable justice practices.

Designing Safety: Community Safety Initiatives Managed By The New York City Department Of Youth And Community Development, Kwan-Lamar Blount-Hill, Patricia A. Cobar, Fidel L. Osorio, Sheyla A. Delgado, Jeffrey A. Butts

Publications and Research

New York City supplements traditional policing with community-based strategies to prevent crime and violence. At the request of the Department of Youth and Community Development, the Research and Evaluation Center at John Jay College reviewed three such programs: the Crisis Management System (CMS), the Mayor’s Action Plan for Neighborhood Safety (MAP), and the Precision Employment Initiative (PEI). While grounded in promising practices, these initiatives have not yet undergone rigorous evaluation. Additional research is needed to assess their effectiveness and guide potential expansion efforts.

Ethnographic Activism And Critical Criminology, David C. Brotherton

Publications and Research

No abstract provided.

Shoplifting And Other Types Of Petit Larceny In New York City, Jeffrey A. Butts, Richard A. Espinobarros

Publications and Research

This data brief from the Research and Evaluation Center at John Jay College of Criminal Justice highlights recent trends in petit larceny in New York City, based on the latest police crime data. Thefts involving items valued under $1,000 have increased by 50% since 2006 and 29% since 2019. Between 2019 and 2022, incidents at major commercial retailers rose sharply by 53%, with drug stores and chain stores experiencing some of the most dramatic increases. While some types of petit larceny had been in decline prior to 2019, many surged again in the years following. These patterns suggest shifting dynamics …

Minor Role: Youth Under Age 18 And New York City Violence, Jeffrey A. Butts, Sheyla A. Delgado, Richard A. Espinobarros

Publications and Research

Media outlets attribute recent concerns about increased violent crime in New York City to the behavior of juveniles and associate the increase with New York State's policy governing the handling of 16 and 17-year-olds in family courts rather than adult criminal courts. This databit explores age differences in violent crime arrests and shooting victimizations in New York City and finds the recent concerns to be misplaced.

Community Violence Intervention At The Roots (Cvi–R), Katheryne Pugliese, Paul Oder, Talib Hudson, Jeffrey A. Butts

Publications and Research

The crime and justice field recently started to label a wide array of violence prevention strategies as Community Violence Interventions. Many of these strategies depend on law enforcement and social services, but the most innovative approaches are community-centered and community-sourced. They are grassroots efforts that rely on the resources of neighborhoods and residents themselves, operating separately from law enforcement and traditional human services. Researchers from the John Jay College Research and Evaluation Center reviewed the history of community violence intervention strategies that operate at the grassroots level (or CVI-R) and examined evaluations of several community-centered approaches, providing recommendations for researchers …

Characterizing Changes In Extreme Ozone Levels Under 2050s Climate Conditions: An Extreme-Value Analysis In California, Bradley Wilson, Mariah Pope, Jeremy R. Porter, Edward Kearns, Evelyn Shu, Mark Bauer, Neil Freeman, Mike Amodeo, David Melecio-Vazquez, Ho Hsieh, Maggie Tarasovitch

Publications and Research

Ground-level ozone has a well established climate penalty associated with changing meteorological conditions under future climate change, but most existing research focuses exclusively on ozone-temperature relationships defined at specific locations. Using an extreme-value theory approach, we model relationships between temperature, humidity, and vapor pressure deficit and maximum daily 8 h ozone concentrations (MDA8) across California using a combination of ozone station network data and Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ) model output from 2008 to 2017. We use a spatial regression with time varying bias coefficients to fuse station observations and modeled output into a spatially explicit gridded ozone …

Using Internet-Derived Data To Measure Religion: Understanding How Google Can Provide Insight Into Cross-National Religious Differences, Amy Adamczyk, Jacqueline Scott, Steven Hitlin

Publications and Research

Internet and social media data provide new sources of information for examining social issues, but their potential for scholars interested in religion remains unclear. Focusing on cross-national religion data, we test the validity of measures drawn from Google and Twitter against well-known existing data. We find that Google Trend (GT) searches for the dominant religions’ major holidays, along with “Buddhism,” can be validated against traditional sources. We also find that GT and traditional measures account for similar amounts of variation, and the GT measures do not differ substantially from established ones for explaining several cross-national outcomes (e.g., fertility, circumcision, and …

Unpacking The Influence Of Islamic Religious Culture And Individual Religious Affiliation On Testing Hiv-Positive, Brittany Hayes, Amy Adamczyk

Publications and Research

The distribution of HIV cases varies cross-nationally. We separate the influences of Islam at the macro-and micro-levels to understand the role of religion in shaping the spread of HIV. Drawing on biomarker data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we construct a multilevel database (Individual N= 568,476; Country N= 30). We examine a series of national-and individual-level predictors that may mediate the relationship between Islam and testing HIV-positive. Individual religious affiliation and proportion Muslim retained their risk-reducing effects even when accounting for a range of mediators and suppressors. Islam has a sui generis effect on testing HIV-positive.

Conceptualization, Implementation, And Management Of The New York City Mayor’S Action Plan For Neighborhood Safety, Wogod Alawlaqi, Nicole Alexander, Rebecca Balletto, Justice Banks, Jeffrey A. Butts, Patricia A. Cobar, Edda S. Fransdottir, Jason Szkola, Kathleen A. Tomberg, Anthony Vega

Publications and Research

This research report presents the findings from the implementation assessment of the NYC Mayor's Action Plan for Neighborhood Safety (MAP). Researchers from the John Jay College of Criminal Justice relied on an assortment of evaluation data to identify outcome differences between MAP communities and the matched set of comparison communities. Using administrative and survey data, researchers tested relationships between the various efforts of MAP and key outcomes expected to result from those efforts. Information obtained through interviews and observations provided context to understand the evolution and implementation of MAP. The investigation provided policymakers with important information about the possible effectiveness …

Shooting Trends Vary Across Areas Of New York City, Jeffrey A. Butts, Richard A. Espinobarros

Publications and Research

Recent reports point to slight reductions in New York City’s recent surge of shooting incidents. The number of shooting incidents was higher in 2020 and 2021 than in 2019, but the rate of increase appeared to be slowing. The degree of change varied across areas of the city.

Returning Home: A Descriptive Evaluation Of Prepare In New York City, Kathleen A. Tomberg, Gina Moreno, Patricia A. Cobar, Nicole Alexander

Publications and Research

The Research and Evaluation Center at John Jay College of Criminal Justice partnered with the Osborne Association as the local evaluator of the Prepare program. Researchers conducted an evaluation consisting of an outcome analysis of administrative and survey data supplemented with data collected from interviews, focus groups, and observations with program participants and staff. Findings suggest Prepare was successful in helping individuals reconnect with their families and in finding a job. Participants reported that obtaining and maintaining employment improved their ability to have a relationship with their children and families, and improvements in family related scales correlated with job placement.

Ensuring Survey Research Data Integrity In The Era Of Internet Bots, Marybec Griffin, Richard J. Martino, Caleb Loschiavo, Camilla Comer-Carruthers, Kristen D. Krause, Christopher B. Stults, Perry N. Halkitis

Publications and Research

We used an internet-based survey platform to conduct a cross-sectional survey regarding the impact of COVID-19 on the LGBTQ + population in the United States. While this method of data collection was quick and inexpensive, the data collected required extensive cleaning due to the infiltration of bots. Based on this experience, we provide recommendations for ensuring data integrity. Recruitment conducted between May 7 and 8, 2020 resulted in an initial sample of 1251 responses. The Qualtrics survey was disseminated via social media and professional association listservs. After noticing data discrepancies, research staff developed a rigorous data cleaning protocol. A second …

Shooting Surge Beginning To Slow Across New York City, Jeffrey A. Butts, Richard A. Espinobarros

Publications and Research

Many cities in the United States experienced increased gun violence during the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 and 2021. Shootings in New York City grew sharply in 2020 and remained elevated in 2021, but the degree of increase may be in decline. This databit looks at the percent change in shootings citywide by quarter and shooting incidents across the NYC boroughs by quarter from 2007 to 2021.

Testimonio And Counterstorytelling By Immigrant-Origin Children And Youth: Insights That Amplify Immigrant Subjectivities, Ariana Mangual Figueroa, Wendy Barrales

Publications and Research

This article seeks to amplify our scholarly view of immigrant identity by centering the first-person narratives of immigrant-origin children and youth. Our theoretical and methodological framework centers on testimonio—a narrative practice popularized in Latin American social movements in which an individual recounts a lived experience that is intended to be representative of a collective struggle. Our goal is to foreground first-person narratives of childhood as told by immigrant-origin children and youth in order to gain insight into what they believe we should know about them. We argue for the power of testimonio to communicate both extraordinary hardship and everyday experiences …

Understanding The Role Of Religion In Shaping Cross-National And Domestic Attitudes And Interest In Abortion, Homosexuality, And Pornography Using Traditional And Google Search Data, Amy Adamczyk, Yu-Hsuan Liu, Jacqueline Scott

Publications and Research

Over the last 20 years, internet usage has increased substantially, providing an inexpensive source of data that may be less prone to bias and could provide a greater number of meso and macro units. However, validating big data and their usefulness has been challenging. This study uses established sources to validate Google Trends’ search interest in the “Bible” across US Designated Market Areas and “Ramadan” across nations, establishing a potential new source of religion data. We then use these measures to show that people from religiously conservative US areas and countries are more likely to disapprove of homosexuality, abortion and …

Shifting Religious Influences On Attitudes Towards Same-Sex Behavior And Civil Liberties: A Multilevel Across-Time Analysis, Laura M. Moore, Amy Adamczyk, J. Michael Ryan, Seth Ovadia

Publications and Research

Americans’ acceptance of same-sex sexual relations and their willingness to restrict the civil liberties of sexual minorities vary substantially across both time and place even as overall trends have been towards more liberalizing stances. Yet few quantitative studies have explored both the individual and contextual religious factors shaping Americans’ views and none have applied such an analysis to examining attitudes over time. Using hierarchical ordered logistic modeling and time-year interactions with 1973–2016 General Social Survey data, we examine whether the religious characteristics of residents and the contexts in which they reside moderated Americans’ liberalizing attitudes over time. We find that …

The Video Camera Spoiled My Ethnography: A Critical Approach, Katherine Gregory

Publications and Research

As videography and other media technologies are normalized in the field of qualitative methods for the purpose of data collection, there is a growing need to discuss the benefits and limitations of these data collection tools. This article chronicles an ethnographic video study focused on the experiences of Muslim adults living in the Netherlands, and why the author opted to end the project. Issues focus on reckoning with the imperial gaze of the camera, performative behavior of participants before the camera and interdisciplinary tensions the researcher faced from conflicting trainings as a qualitative methodologist and media practitioner.

Reducing Gun Violence In New York City, Jeffrey A. Butts, Sheyla A. Delgado

Publications and Research

Most large American cities experienced falling client crime rates in recent decades, with New York City only being second to San Diego is the scale of its decline. This databit looks at the array of initiatives the city implemented to address gun violence as a possible contribution to the decline.

High Tech, High Risk: Tech Ethics Lessons For The Covid-19 Pandemic Response, Emanuel Moss, Jacob Metcalf

Publications and Research

The COVID-19 pandemic has, in a matter of a few short months, drastically reshaped society around the world. Because of the growing perception of machine learning as a technology capable of addressing large problems at scale, machine learning applications have been seen as desirable interventions in mitigating the risks of the pandemic disease. However, machine learning, like many tools of technocratic governance, is deeply implicated in the social production and distribution of risk and the role of machine learning in the production of risk must be considered as engineers and other technologists develop tools for the current crisis. This paper …

Is Lying Contagious? Spatial Diffusion Of High-Yield “Satellites” During China’S Great Leap Forward, Hongwei Xu, Geng Tian

Publications and Research

Situated in China’s Great Leap Forward (GLF) campaign in 1958, this study examines the spatial diffusion of “launching high-yield satellites”— exaggerating grain yields, which contributed to the 1959–61 GLF famine that claimed millions of human lives. The authors conceptualize exaggerating grain yields as a political innovation adopted by local cadres to endorse the GLF and signal political loyalty to their superiors. Using geocoded county-level event history data from historical newspaper archives, the authors found that the diffusion of exaggerating grain yields across the country was primarily driven by the interaction between geographic proximity and political proximity.

Easily Overstated: Estimating The Relationship Between State Justice Policy Environments And Falling Rates Of Youth Confinement, Douglas N. Evans, Gina Moreno, Kevin T. Wolff, Jeffrey A. Butts

Publications and Research

Researchers used state-level data on youth justice policies and practices to explore the association between state policy environments and recent changes in the use of residential placements for adjudicated youth (i.e., confinement). The study assigned a score to each of the 50 states based on the extent to which their youth justice policy environments could be considered "progressive" as opposed to punitive or regressive. Using data from the National Center for Juvenile Justice's compendium of justice system characteristics, "Juvenile Justice, Geography, Policy, Practice & Statistics" (JJGPS), the research team created an index that accounts for 16 policies that are more …