Demography, Population, and Ecology Commons^™

Without A Map: A Lived Experience Study Of The Paths People Create Through Homelessness, Kathleen P. Conte, Susan Avila, Desiree' J. Duboise, Carlton Bone, Marisa A. Zapata, Transformational Research For Equity And Experience In Shelter (Trees) Committee

Homelessness Research & Action Collaborative Publications and Presentations

The Pathways to Housing Study examines how people experience and navigate homelessness and the systems intended to help them move toward stable housing. Conducted in Multnomah County, Oregon, the study used a participatory mixed-methods design co-led with the TREES lived experience committee. The first phase was reported in April 2026 included surveys with 541 people with current or recent experience of homelessness. The second phase, reported here, used in-depth interviews and journey mapping with 29 participants to explore how pathways through homelessness unfold over time and across service systems.

Findings demonstrate that homelessness pathways are rarely linear. Participants described entering …

Probabilistic Intervals Around Population Forecasts: A New Approach With A Subnational Example Using Washington State Counties, David A. Swanson, Jeff Tayman

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Population forecasts produced by governments at all levels are used in the public sector, the private sector, and by researchers. They have been primarily produced using deterministic methods. This paper shows how a method for producing measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing subnational population forecasts while meeting several important criteria, including the concept of utility. The paper includes an assessment of the efficacy of the method by: (1) examining the change in uncertainty intervals it produces by population size and population growth rate; and (2) comparing the width and temporal change of the uncertainty intervals it produces to …

Demographic And Economic Implications Of Alternative Us Immigration Policies, Guizhen Ma, Erin Trouth Hofmann, Ethan Sharygin

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Due to the United States’ decades-long stalemate in federal immigration policy-making, major institutional forecasts of the U.S. population have not included assumptions about changes in immigration policy. However, the 2016 election of President Donald Trump and the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated just how much policy shifts can affect immigration flows, with substantial implications for the country’s demographic future. We created national-level population and economic projections through 2060 using nine different immigration policy scenarios, reflecting differences in both the scale of immigration allowed and the mix of immigrant visas issued (family reunification versus economic and labor visas). The projections highlight the dramatically …

Estimating Historical Age-Sex Distributions Of A Tribal Population: A Case Study Of The Hopi, 1900 To 1940, David Swanson, Jeff Tayman

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Historical information on tribal populations in the United States is scattered and discontinuous. A significant part of the discontinuity is the gap between 1900 and 1970. This paper describes a process that may partially fill this gap by developing decennial age-sex data from 1900 to 1940. Where temporally consistent, we compare these estimates to those done by others. This work provides a point of departure for generating more demographic information about the Hopi from 1900 to 1940 and, ultimately, beyond 1970, a critical turning point regarding the increased availability of American Indian data from the U.S. Census Bureau. It also …

The End Of International Migration? The Case Of North America, David Swanson, Jeff Tayman

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Although there are exceptions (forced migration and retirement migration, for example), international migration is largely driven by people of working age. Population forecasts to the year 2100 show that the numbers of people of working age (20-64) will diminish in North America (Canada, Mexico, and the United States), and dramatically diminish among those of the younger working ages (20-34 and 35-44). Underlying this expectation is the fact that North America, like the world as a whole, will have completed the demographic transition or be very close to completing it within 75 years, which means this region of the world will …

Accounting For Stillbirths In Maternal Health Metrics: A Cross-Country Analysis Research In Context, Ursula Gazeley, Hallie Eilerts-Spinelli, Joshua Wilde, Hannah Blencowe, Li Liu, Wendy Graham, Veronique Filippi

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Background: Live birth is only one of four potential pregnancy outcomes, alongside stillbirth, miscarriage, and induced abortion. While morbidity and mortality associated with all pregnancy outcomes are included in the numerator of many maternal metrics, often only live births are included in the denominator. This inconsistency makes interpreting trends challenging and may exacerbate the deprioritisation of monitoring other pregnancy outcomes. We assess the effect of using (1) total births (live births and stillbirths) or (2) total pregnancies (total births plus miscarriages/induced abortions) as the denominator on estimates of maternal and pregnancy-related mortality ratios (MMR and PRMR). Methods: Using data from …

Accelerating Growth Of Human Coastal Populations At The Global And Continent Levels: 2000–2018, A. G. Cosby, V. Lebakula, David Swanson, K. Bergene, D. E. Bloom, Multiple Additional Authors

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Current human population growth along Earth’s coasts is on a collision path with anticipated consequences of increasing natural and anthropogenic induced coastal hazards. Using recently-available ambient, dasymetric data, we developed methods to estimate annual continental and global coastal populations from (2000–2018) measured horizontally from the shoreline inward. We found: (1) large concentrations of population in relatively small bands and regions along the coast (~ 2 billion within 50 km and ~ 1 billion within 10 km); (2) higher growth rates of coastal population than inland population (an addition of 463 million within 50 km and 233 million within 10 km); …

Climate And Extreme Weather Event Impacts On Administrators, Direct Care Staff, And Residents In Oregon Assisted Living, Residential Care, And Memory Care Communities, 2024, Dani Himes, Jacklyn Kohon, Madeline Fox, Laura Rodriguez, Sarah Dys, Diana Jacoby, Paula Carder

Institute on Aging Publications

This brief report on AL/RC staff and resident experiences with climate events highlights the voices of AL/RC direct care staff, former direct care staff, residents, administrators, and management representatives to promote well-being in these care settings. This study can inform Oregon’s efforts to support long-term care workforce readiness for future climate emergencies and inform future quantitative data collection on AL/RC and other long-term care workers, including those employed in home health agencies, nursing facilities, and adult foster homes.

The Decline Of The Non-Hispanic White Population In The United States Of America, Richard R. Verdugo, David A. Swanson

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Objectives: The question of a declining non-Hispanic white (NHW) population has sparked debate in the United States. In examining this question, three bodies of research have emerged. One group reports that the decline is real, a second argues that it is an illusion, and the third provides evidence that the decline is concentrated within socio-economic segments of the NHW population. We use the third groups’ insight as the starting point for our research objective. Methods: In conjunction with data from Census Bureau sources, we use a series of Regression Models in this inquiry. Results: Our results show that the decline …

Models For Estimating Intrinsic R And The Mean Age Of A Population At Stability: Evaluations At The National And Sub-National Level, David A. Swanson

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Using Canada’s provinces and territories in conjunction with the “Cohort Change Ratio” approach to generating a stable population, I test the accuracy of two regression models constructed from national-level data designed to estimate two factors of a population at stability from initial conditions at the sub-national levels: (1) its constant rate of change, denoted here by r'; and (2) mean population age. In a test of accuracy at the national level I find that these models provide reasonably accurate estimates. In the tests at the subnational level, the accuracy, as expected, is less, but the results indicate that the …

Spatially Allocated Population Characteristics For Oregon Counties From The 2017-2021 Acs Pums, Version 1.0" [Computer File], Population Research Center, Portland State University

Publications, Reports and Presentations

A novel dataset and documentation containing spatially allocated estimates based on analysis of the 2017-21 ACS PUMS for counties in the State of Oregon. Analysis was performed by iterative adjustment to the ACS weights such that results were consistent with selected tables generated from the full ACS sample published by the US Census Bureau. The data are delivered in two pipe-delimited text files. Each row represents one county, and columns represent standard data fields described in the codebooks. Oregon Department of Human Services supported the analysis and selected the indicators for production; race/ethnicity are reporting in a manner consistent with …

American Indian Census Rolls: An Underutilized Source Of Historical Demographic Information On Tribal Populations, David Swanson, Jeff Tayman

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Historical information on tribal populations in the United States is incomplete. American Indians and Alaska Natives were not enumerated with the general population until the 1940 decennial census. However, Indian Census Rolls were produced for the period 1885 – 1940 under the auspices of the Bureau of Indian Affairs in the U.S. The information given in the Indian Census Rolls varies but usually includes the roll number, age, gender, tribal identity, and relationship to the head of the family. In this paper, we present background information on Indian Census Rolls and demonstrate how the digitized microfiche census roll schedules can …

Oregon Tribal Land & County Population Projections By Race & Ethnicity, Population Research Center, Portland State University, Neal Marquez, Ethan Sharygin, Deborah Loftus, Huda Alkitkat, Gilbert Montcho, David Swanson, Joshua Wilde

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Oregon House Bill 2003 from the 2019 legislative session (HB 2003) prioritizes equitable planning to address past and ongoing disparities in access to affordable housing, and Executive Order (EO) 20-04 (2020) declared a priority to address differential vulnerability to natural hazards by race and ethnicity. These priorities and Goal 10 of the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) collectively identify an unmet and growing need for population projections with race and ethnicity detail, disability status, and for American Indian tribal lands in Oregon.

House Bill 5006 from the 2021 session (HB 5006), appropriated funds to study and make …

A Community-Informed Exploration Of Immigrants' Pandemic Experiences With Pronoy Rai, Pronoy Rai

PDXPLORES Podcast

During the pandemic, many of the region's frontline workers were, and continue to be, members of immigrant communities. Assistant Professor Pronoy Rai has partnered with members of these communities and community-serving non-profit organizations to gain a better understanding of the immigrant experience of the pandemic and pandemic recovery. A human geographer, Professor Rai's research aims to improve policy and policy outcomes. Rai's work is supported by PSU's Metropolitan Engaged Research Initiative and Community-Engaged Research Academy.

Click on the "Download" button to access the audio transcript.

How Relevant Is The Basic Reproductive Number Computed During Covid-19, Especially During Lockdowns?, Arni S.R. Srinivasa Rao, Steven G. Krantz, Thomas Kurien, David Swanson, Multiple Additional Authors

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Basic reproductive numbers during COVID-19, either through standard approaches or through time-varying approaches, are key for understanding the pandemic growth. However, improper usage and interpretations and computational difficulties during lockdowns could be misleading for planning and mitigation.

Gas Stations And The Wealth Divide: Analyzing Spatial Correlations Between Wealth And Fuel Branding, Jean-Carl Ende

Dissertations and Theses

The gasoline refining and sales industry has many peculiarities. One such oddity is a difference in sales, distribution and pricing between branded and unbranded gasolines. Although fuels leave the refinery a uniform commodity, branding determines entirely different marketing and pricing schemes, with entirely different volatility and risk premiums. In order to determine if this volatility is felt evenly across all wealth demographics, this study uses t-tests and CART models to analyze income, home value and other wealth-based indicators in the areas surrounding gas stations, to determine if there is a correlation between branding and wealth. The results show the wealth …

Mape-R: A Rescaled Measure Of Accuracy For Cross-Sectional Subnational Population Forecasts, David Swanson, Jeff Tayman, T. M. Bryan

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Accurately measuring a population and its attributes at past, present, and future points in time has been of great interest to demographers. Within discussions of forecast accuracy, demographers have often been criticized for their inaccurate prognostications of the future. Discussions of methods and data are usually at the centre of these criticisms, along with suggestions for providing an idea of forecast uncertainty. The measures used to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts also have received attention and while accuracy is not the only criterion advocated for evaluating demographic forecasts, it is generally acknowledged to be the most important. In this paper, …

Model-Based Estimates Of Population Of Oregon Census Blocks As Of April 1, 2020, Population Research Center, Portland State University

Publications, Reports and Presentations

The methodology used to produce population estimates as of 4/1/2020 for the state at the block group level relies on data from the 2010 Census Summary File 1 (SF1), 2020 Census Apportionment Results, US Census partnership programs supporting the 2020 Census, 2020 Tiger/Line boundary files, 2015-2019 5-year American Community Survey (ACS) files, ESRI Updated Demographics vintage 2020, and estimates from the Portland State University Population Research Center and US Census Population Division.

The 2010 decennial census block file was the baseline for average household size, and counts of housing units and population by race in 2010. Block group or tract …

An Example Of Converting Clinical Study Mortality Data Into A Life Table: The U.S. Population With Sickle Cell Disease, David A. Swanson

Publications, Reports and Presentations

There are approximately 100,000 people in the United States with Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) and the paucity of life tables for this population makes it difficult to determine if research and treatment innovations have improved their life expectancy over time and relative to the general U.S. population. Using mortality data generated in a population-based surveillance study over the period, 2004 to 2008, this paper generates a life table for this study population circa 2006 and applies it to the US population that has SCD. I find that a newborn with this condition circa 2006 had a life expectancy of approximately …

Enclosing Water: Privatization, Commodification, And Access, Daniel Jaffee

Sociology Faculty Publications and Presentations

This chapter examines the global political economy of access to drinking water, with particular attention to the implications for environmental and social justice. After reviewing theoretical approaches to the privatization and commodification of drinking water, the chapter examines the institutional and ideological drivers, dynamics, and effects of the enclosure of municipal (tap) water supplies, and the substantial countermovements it has generated, drawing on case studies from both the global South and the North. The chapter briefly reviews the present status of municipal water privatization, and then turns to another major modality of water commodification: bottled water. It explores the dramatic …

Oregon's Population Estimates Program, Huda Alkitkat, Portland State University. Population Research Center

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Presentation given by Huda Alkitkat of the Population Research Center at Portland State University, in which she gives an overview of the Oregon Population Estimates Program.

Oregon Population Forecast Program, Ethan Sharygin, Portland State University. Population Research Center

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Ethan Sharygin, the Director of the Population Research Center at Portand State University, offers an overview of the Oregon Population Forecast Program, and discusses the process by which population estimates are generated and certified.

Oregon 2019 American Community Survey Highlights, Charles Rynerson, Portland State University. Population Research Center

Publications, Reports and Presentations

Charles Rynerson of the Population Research Center at Portland State University discusses highlights from the Oregon 2019 American Community Survey. Topics discussed include how race can be misconstrued in data, demographic trends, poverty in Oregon, and domestic migration.

Coordinated Population Forecast For Clackamas County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2020-2070, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Paul Runge, Mac Cunningham, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different areas within Oregon counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Clackamas County is comprised of three types of areas: areas within Metro’s jurisdiction, UGB areas outside of Metro’s jurisdiction (Barlow, Canby, Estacada, Molalla, and Sandy), and areas outside of both Metro and those UGBs. In this report, we focus on Clackamas County as a whole as well as non‐ Metro sub‐areas.

Clackamas County’s total population has grown steadily over the last half century, with average annual growth rates exceeding 1 percent in every period except during Oregon’s deep 1980s recession and the …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Yamhill County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2020-2070, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Paul Runge, Mac Cunningham, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different areas within Oregon counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Yamhill County is comprised of two types of areas: its urban‐growth boundary (UGB) areas (Amity, Carlton, Dayton, Dundee, the portions of Gaston within Yamhill County, Lafayette, McMinnville, Newberg, Sheridan, the portions of Willamina within Yamhill County, and the City of Yamhill) and the area outside of those UGBs.

Yamhill County’s total population increased during the 2000s, growing at an average of 1.6 percent annually (see Figure 1). Small sub‐areas in northeastern Yamhill County—such as Carlton, Gaston, Lafayette, and Yamhill—experienced faster population growth …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Washington County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2020-2070, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Paul Runge, Mac Cunningham, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different areas within Oregon counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Washington County is comprised of three types of areas: areas within Metro’s jurisdiction, urban‐growth boundary (UGB) areas outside of Metro’s jurisdiction (Banks, Gaston, and North Plains), and areas outside of Metro and those UGBs. In this report, we focus on Washington County as a whole as well as non‐Metro sub‐areas.

Washington County’s total population has grown swiftly over the last half century, only slowing modestly during Oregon’s deep 1980s recession. Since 1990, average annual growth rates have slowed from above 3 percent …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Clatsop County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2020-2070, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Paul Runge, Mac Cunningham, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different sub‐areas within Oregon’s counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Clatsop County is comprised of two types of sub‐areas: urban‐growth boundary (UGB) areas (Astoria, Cannon Beach, Gearhart, Seaside, and Warrenton) and areas outside of those UGBs. In this report, we describe demographic trends and forecasts for the county as a whole as well as its sub‐areas.

Clatsop County’s total population gradually increased in the 2000s (Figure 1). Some sub‐areas, such as Warrenton and Gearhart, experienced faster population growth, averaging between one and two percent growth annually. In contrast, Astoria lost population between …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Wasco County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2020-2070, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Paul Runge, Mac Cunningham, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different sub‐areas within Oregon’s counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Wasco County is comprised of two types of sub‐areas: urban‐growth boundary (UGB) areas (Antelope, Dufur, Maupin, Mosier, Shaniko, and The Dalles) and areas outside of those UGBs. In this report, we describe demographic trends and forecasts for the county as a whole as well as its sub‐areas.

Wasco County’s total population has grown slowly over the last half century. The exception to this trend was the tumultuous 1980s, related to both the deep recession that hit Oregon and to the sudden appearance, …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Tillamook County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2020-2070, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Paul Runge, Mac Cunningham, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different areas within Oregon counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Tillamook County is comprised of two types of areas: its urban‐growth boundary (UGB) areas (Bay City, Garibaldi, Manzanita, Nehalem, Rockaway Beach, Tillamook City, and Wheeler) and areas outside those UGBs.

Tillamook County’s total population gradually increased in the 2000s (Figure 1). Some subareas, such as Bay City, Manzanita, and Nehalem, experienced faster population growth than the county as a whole, averaging between one and three percent growth annually. In contrast, Rockaway Beach remained relatively unchanged between 2000 and 2010, and Garibaldi lost …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Hood River County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2020-2070, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Paul Runge, Mac Cunningham, Deborah Loftus, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different sub‐areas within Oregon’s counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Hood River County is comprised of two types of sub‐areas: urban‐growth boundary (UGB) areas (Cascade Locks and the City of Hood River) and areas outside of those UGBs. In this report, we describe demographic trends and forecasts for the county as a whole as well as its sub‐areas.

Hood River County’s total population has grown steadily over the last half century, with average annual growth rates exceeding 1 percent in every period except during Oregon’s deep 1980s recession and the Great Recession …