Criminology Commons^™

Assessing The Relationship Between Treatment Quality, Matching And Dosage And Juvenile Justice Outcomes Among Youth With Co-Occurring Substance Abuse And Mental Health Disorders, Kevin T. Wolff, Michael T. Baglivio, Joshua A. Lang

Publications and Research

This study examined differences among youth in deep-end juvenile justice residential placement who did, and did not, present with co-occurring disorders. The prevalence of cooccurring mental health and substance use/abuse issues was found to be 19%, far lower than that of prior work. Researchers demonstrated more similarities than differences between youth with and without co-occurring disorders, both in terms of their criminal histories and the prevalence of their criminogenic needs. Additionally, the residential programs across Florida appear to provide treatment at similarly high levels of integrity, as measured by 1) matching treatment services to the highest three dynamic risk assessed …

An Exploration Of Temporally Differentiated Associations Between Alcohol Outlets, Social Disorganization, And Assaults: A Multilevel Approach, Jinuk Jeong, Yunho Yeom

Publications and Research

A substantial body of research consistently shows that the concentration of alcohol outlets is positively associated with violent crimes, such as assaults. While recent studies have incorporated both spatial and temporal dimensions of this relationship, particularly within-day variations, how this temporally differentiated association of alcohol outlets with violent crimes varies depending on the broader context, such as social disorganization, remains underexplored. This study addresses this research gap by investigating whether the relationship between alcohol outlets and assaults in New York City from 2017 to 2019 differs by time of the day, while accounting for neighborhood structures in terms of their …

Minor Role Iv: Violent Crime More Of An Adult Problem Today, Jeffrey A. Butts, Gina Moreno

Publications and Research

Using national and New York City arrest data, the John Jay College Research and Evaluation Center presents a report that shows juvenile arrests for violent crimes have significantly decreased since the 1990s, while adult crime rates have fallen at a slower pace. Despite these trends, some continue to blame youth for crime spikes, often disregarding research that supports the effectiveness of juvenile justice reforms. The findings suggest that, rather than contributing to crime, these reforms align with adolescent development science and have not led to an increase in violent offenses.

Punishing Pregnancy Loss: Miscarriage Criminalization As An Embodied Carceral Practice, Robin O'Hanlon

Publications and Research

The persecution of Brittany Watts, a 34-year-old Black Ohio woman arrested in September 2023 after experiencing a miscarriage, is emblematic of pregnancy loss criminalization as an embodied carceral practice. In the United States, the expansion of “fetal personhood” laws, coupled with a desire to punish imperfect pregnancies, have coalesced to produce policies and practices which actively police and criminalize pregnancy loss. The carceral regime of fetal personhood is further reinforced by medical paternalism and surveillance. I argue that the policies and practices which police pregnancy loss are rooted in a series of carceral logics, which are in turn reinforced by …

Community-Level Analysis Of Anti-Asian Hate Crime, Jisoo Cho, Jinuk Jeong, Christopher Han-Fai Seto

Publications and Research

Motivated by the surge in anti-Asian hate crimes during the COVID-19 pandemic, this study examines the community characteristics associated with the likelihood of their occurrence from 2020 to 2023 through interracial conflict and social disorganization perspectives. Analyzing data from the New York City Police Department and the American Community Survey across 2,198 census tracts, we find that communities with higher levels of Asian population, racial heterogeneity, and residential instability have higher odds of experiencing anti-Asian hate crime. However, concentrated disadvantage and defended neighborhoods (White, Black, and Hispanic) are not significant across all estimated models. These findings have important implications for …

Investing In Maryland Safety: Engaging Public Resources And Community Partnerships To Prevent Crime And Violence, Jeffrey A. Butts, Rebecca Balletto, Patricia A. Cobar

Publications and Research

The Research and Evaluation Center at John Jay College of Criminal Justice conducted a review of two innovative initiatives developed by the Maryland Department of Juvenile Services: The Thrive Academy (TTA) and the Safer Stronger Together (SST) intervention strategy. The study involved document analysis, online resource review, and interviews with agency staff and leadership. These efforts aimed to understand the design, implementation, and alignment of TTA and SST within Maryland’s broader public safety and crime prevention strategy. Key themes included program effectiveness, operational progress, and community-level impact, providing valuable insights into the Department’s evolving approach to juvenile justice and public …

Community Safety Investments: Violence Prevention Initiatives Across New York State, Rebecca Balletto, Jeffrey A. Butts, Sheyla A. Delgado, Justice D. Evans, Gina Moreno, Elia Del Carmen Solano-Patricio, Kathleen A. Tomberg, Michael Rempel, René Ropac

Publications and Research

At the request of New York State's Division of Criminal Justice Services (DCJS), researchers from John Jay College of Criminal Justice conducted an assessment of over a decade of state-funded violence prevention initiatives implemented at the county level. Beginning in 2010 and expanding significantly after 2021, these initiatives were adopted by nearly two dozen counties by 2014. Research teams from the Research and Evaluation Center (JohnJayREC) and the Data Collaborative for Justice (DCJ) analyzed county-level trends in serious and violent crime between 2010 and 2023 to assess the potential impact of these investments on community safety outcomes. The study aimed …

Minor Role Iii: Youth Under Age 18 And New York City Violence, Jeffrey A. Butts, Gina Moreno

Publications and Research

Researchers at the John Jay College Research and Evaluation Center analyzed NYPD arrest data from 2006 to 2024 to assess trends in felony assault, felony robbery, and felony weapon offenses across age groups. The study examined whether New York’s “Raise the Age” law, which shifted most youth under 18 out of adult court, influenced violent crime patterns. Although arrests rose across all age groups following the COVID-19 pandemic, trends among youth under 18 generally mirrored those of older age groups. The findings suggest no clear evidence that the law caused a youth-specific increase in violent crime.

Assessing The Predictive Validity Of The Network Inventory Of Risk, Victories, And Needs Assessment (Nirvana) For Youth Receiving Prevention Services., Michael T. Baglivio, Kevin T. Wolff, Katherine Jackowski

Publications and Research

The current study assesses the predictive validity of a newly-developed holistic risk/needs assessment for youth receiving prevention services. Employing a multiyear statewide sample of over 17,000 prevention youth, multivariate and Area Under Curve techniques are used to examine predictive validity in predicting future formal juvenile justice system involvement (new law violations) across sex, race/ethnicity, and multiple youth age ranges. Furthermore, predictive validity across the severity of the subsequent offense type (misdemeanor, non-violent felony, violent felony) was examined. Findings demonstrate large effect sizes for static risk only, dynamic risk only, and total risk plus protective scores on future offending. Sex and …

Major Crime Trends Differ In New York City And New York State, Jeffrey A. Butts, Gina Moreno

Publications and Research

Researchers at the John Jay College Research and Evaluation Center analyzed police-reported index crimes across New York State from 2010 to 2024, focusing on trends in violent and property offenses across three regional groups: New York City, its surrounding suburbs, and Upstate New York. While violent and property crimes declined statewide through 2020, both surged in NYC and its suburbs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Upstate regions showed continued or renewed declines. Per capita crime rates reveal more modest increases in NYC and notable decreases in other areas, underscoring regional disparities in crime trends post-2020.

Minor Role Ii: Youth Under Age 18 And New York City Violence, Jeffrey A. Butts, Gina Moreno

Publications and Research

Researchers from John Jay College of Criminal Justice's Research and Evaluation Center analyzed NYPD arrest data from 2006 to 2024 (with 2024 figures estimated) to assess trends in felony assault, felony robbery, and felony weapon offenses across three age groups: under 18, 18–24, and 25 and older. The study examined concerns about youth crime following New York State’s “Raise the Age” law, which shifted most cases involving individuals under 18 to family court by 2019. While arrests rose across all age groups during the COVID-19 pandemic, trends among youth generally paralleled those of adults. Robbery arrests among youth increased more …

Reimagining Community Safety: Perceptions Of Policy And Practice In Five Cities, Patricia A. Cobar, Kathleen A. Tomberg, Fidel L. Osorio, Jeffrey A. Butts

Publications and Research

The John Jay College Research and Evaluation Center (REC) and the Urban Institute partnered with the National League of Cities to support five U.S. cities in reimagining public safety through the Municipalities Reimagining Community Safety (MRCS) initiative, funded by Wells Fargo. As the research lead, JohnJay REC conducted a three-wave survey to assess local stakeholder perceptions of public safety strategies, focusing on efficacy and equity. Findings provided insight into city-level approaches to crime prevention and community well-being, informing evaluations of MRCS’s impact across diverse urban contexts.

Past And Present Of The Cvs: Empirical Research And Evidence-Based Policy, Kevin T. Wolff

Publications and Research

In this keynote address, I emphasized the critical role of accurate crime measurement in developing evidence-based policies. I discussed the "dark figure of crime," highlighting how many crimes go unreported, and stressed the importance of victimization surveys in uncovering these hidden crimes to provide a more complete picture of criminal activity.

I also explored how technological advancements, particularly AI, are transforming how we collect and analyze crime data. While AI offers significant benefits in predictive policing and resource allocation, I cautioned about the risks of bias and privacy issues that must be managed carefully.

Regional collaboration, standardization, and inclusivity are …

Strategies For Addressing Substance Abuse And Gambling Among Youth, Kevin T. Wolff

Publications and Research

This keynote address opens with a description of recent trends in substance use and gambling among youth, sharing insights from relevant research. I highlight that while some global trends indicate a decline in adolescent substance use, other areas, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, have seen increases. I emphasize the importance of comprehensive prevention strategies, such as school-based, community-based, and family-based programs, and effective treatment approaches like behavioral interventions and integrated mental health services.

On the topic of youth gambling, I highlight the rising normalization and accessibility of gambling, particularly through the internet. I describe specific challenges in regions like South …

Ticket Punch: The Consequences Of Fare Evasion Enforcement In New York City Subways, Sheyla A. Delgado, Gina Moreno, Fidel L. Osorio, Jeffrey A. Butts

Publications and Research

Researchers at the John Jay College Research and Evaluation Center studied transit fare evasion in New York City subway stations from 2018 to 2023 as part of the NYPD's Police Reform and Reinvention Collaborative. Analyzing fare evasion alongside arrest data and neighborhood characteristics, the study found no significant link between fare enforcement and overall arrest rates. However, fare evasion enforcement was concentrated in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas, highlighting the influence of social factors on public safety practices.

‘A Storm Is Coming:' The New York Times Coverage Of The Covid-19 Pandemic In American Prisons, Katarzyna Celinska, Amina Cheboubi

Publications and Research

In this research, we analyzed the content of 171 articles published between March and August 2020 in the New York Times (NYT) on COVID-19 in American correctional institutions. We observed that the NYT coverage decreased significantly over 6 months. Our analysis uncovered 8 themes within two broader frames: institutional and systemic inequity. Although the themes are not mutually exclusive, we argue that ‘Responding to COVID-19,’ ‘A storm is Coming,’ ‘Collective Experience,’ and ‘Critiquing Prison Conditions’ are within the institutional framing. ‘Redefining Public Safety,’ ‘Categorizing Prisoners,’ ‘Doing Injustice,’ and ‘Making it as a Celebrity’ are the themes that highlight systemic inequity, …

Failure To Appear Across New York Regions, Stephen Koppel, René Ropac, Michael Rempel

Publications and Research

This study examines failure to appear in New York, a topic with important implications for the delivery of pretrial justice. It explores three primary questions: the nature of pretrial release decisions, the variation in FTA rates across different regions and demographics, and the predictors of FTA after controlling for various factors.

The Osborne Association Prepare Program: Recidivism Analysis, Kathleen A. Tomberg, Gina Moreno

Publications and Research

The Research and Evaluation Center (REC) at John Jay College of Criminal Justice partnered with the Osborne Association to evaluate Osborne’s Prepare program that aimed to improve relationships between formerly incarcerated fathers and their children using a family-centered approach. The workshops focused on parenting and workforce skills, and were supplemented with one year of follow-up support. The JohnJayREC team examined data from 578 participants from cohorts one through 47. The research team’s findings suggest Prepare was successful in helping individuals reconnect with their children and families.

Color Contrast: Racial And Ethnic Disparities In New York City Law Enforcement, Gina Moreno, Richard A. Espinobarros, Sheyla A. Delgado, Jeffrey A. Butts

Publications and Research

Researchers at the John Jay College Research and Evaluation Center examined racial and ethnic disparities in arrest rates across New York City neighborhoods, focusing on assault and larceny offenses. Using 911 call data and demographic controls, the study grouped neighborhoods by proportions of Black and Hispanic residents and analyzed arrest patterns. While arrests of Black and Hispanic individuals were more common in neighborhoods with higher populations of these groups, the arrest-to-resident ratios revealed disproportionate impacts, especially for larceny. The findings highlight the importance of monitoring disparities to promote equitable justice practices.

Designing Safety: Community Safety Initiatives Managed By The New York City Department Of Youth And Community Development, Kwan-Lamar Blount-Hill, Patricia A. Cobar, Fidel L. Osorio, Sheyla A. Delgado, Jeffrey A. Butts

Publications and Research

New York City supplements traditional policing with community-based strategies to prevent crime and violence. At the request of the Department of Youth and Community Development, the Research and Evaluation Center at John Jay College reviewed three such programs: the Crisis Management System (CMS), the Mayor’s Action Plan for Neighborhood Safety (MAP), and the Precision Employment Initiative (PEI). While grounded in promising practices, these initiatives have not yet undergone rigorous evaluation. Additional research is needed to assess their effectiveness and guide potential expansion efforts.

Ethnographic Activism And Critical Criminology, David C. Brotherton

Publications and Research

No abstract provided.

Dynamic Risk Trajectories, Community Context, And Juvenile Recidivism, Kevin T. Wolff, Michael T. Baglivio, Jonathan Intravia

Publications and Research

Purpose

While the implementation of risk assessment has expanded, the extent to which there are different trajectories of risk/protective factors among adjudicated youth during supervision in the community remains unanswered. The goal of the current study is to identify the distinct trajectories in dynamic risk and protective factors among youth on probation and assess whether different patterns in risk over time are associated with continued offending.

Method

Group-based trajectory modeling is used to identify distinct trajectories across multiple domains of risk/need. The individual- and neighborhood-level factors associated with these trajectories are then explored, prior to examining their relationship to continued …

Shoplifting And Other Types Of Petit Larceny In New York City, Jeffrey A. Butts, Richard A. Espinobarros

Publications and Research

This data brief from the Research and Evaluation Center at John Jay College of Criminal Justice highlights recent trends in petit larceny in New York City, based on the latest police crime data. Thefts involving items valued under $1,000 have increased by 50% since 2006 and 29% since 2019. Between 2019 and 2022, incidents at major commercial retailers rose sharply by 53%, with drug stores and chain stores experiencing some of the most dramatic increases. While some types of petit larceny had been in decline prior to 2019, many surged again in the years following. These patterns suggest shifting dynamics …

Minor Role: Youth Under Age 18 And New York City Violence, Jeffrey A. Butts, Sheyla A. Delgado, Richard A. Espinobarros

Publications and Research

Media outlets attribute recent concerns about increased violent crime in New York City to the behavior of juveniles and associate the increase with New York State's policy governing the handling of 16 and 17-year-olds in family courts rather than adult criminal courts. This databit explores age differences in violent crime arrests and shooting victimizations in New York City and finds the recent concerns to be misplaced.

The Role Of Suspect Development Practices In Eyewitness Identification Accuracy And Racial Disparities In Wrongful Conviction, Margaret Bull Kovera

Publications and Research

This article reviews the three previously studied categories of variables that are related to eyewitness identification accuracy: estimator (characteristics of the witnessing conditions), system (characteristics of the identification procedure that are under the control of the criminal legal system), and reflector (variables that reflect the likely accuracy of a witness). Although eyewitness scholars frequently turn to these variables and models of memory to explain why eyewitnesses make mistakes, none of these variables provides a reasonable explanation for the large racial disparities in wrongful convictions based on mistaken identifications, yet problematic policing practices might. The policies and practices guiding police efforts …

Misogynistic Extremism: A Scoping Review, Robin O'Hanlon, Frederick L. Altice, Roy Ka-Wei Lee, Jack Laviolette, Gloria Mark, Orestis Papakyriakopoulos, Koustuv Saha, Munmun De Choudhury, Navin Kumar

Publications and Research

In recent years, the concept of “misogynistic extremism” has emerged as a subject of interest among scholars, governments, law enforcement personnel, and the media. Yet a consistent understanding of how misogynistic extremism is defined and conceptualized has not yet emerged. Varying epistemological orientations may contribute to the current conceptual muddle of this topic, reflecting long-standing and on-going challenges with the conceptualization of its individual components. To address the potential impact of misogynistic extremism (i.e., violent attacks), a more precise understanding of what this phenomenon entails is needed. To summarize the existing knowledge base on the nature of misogynistic extremism, this …

The Experiences Of Older Formerly Incarcerated Adults In A Specialized Reentry Program During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Robin O'Hanlon, Jessica Broome

Publications and Research

A growing area of concern among prison reform advocates and human rights activists is the “greying prison population” or the continuous, unified growth in the number of older incarcerated individuals. Older individuals experience an accelerated aging process while incarcerated, but are less likely to reoffend upon release. While the aging prison population has in recent years become a focus of criminological and gerontological scholars, the lived experience of older formerly incarcerated individuals during the reentry process remains understudied. Using a qualitative approach, this cohort study seeks to further elucidate the unique needs, beliefs, and perceptions of this population within the …

Community Violence Intervention At The Roots (Cvi–R), Katheryne Pugliese, Paul Oder, Talib Hudson, Jeffrey A. Butts

Publications and Research

The crime and justice field recently started to label a wide array of violence prevention strategies as Community Violence Interventions. Many of these strategies depend on law enforcement and social services, but the most innovative approaches are community-centered and community-sourced. They are grassroots efforts that rely on the resources of neighborhoods and residents themselves, operating separately from law enforcement and traditional human services. Researchers from the John Jay College Research and Evaluation Center reviewed the history of community violence intervention strategies that operate at the grassroots level (or CVI-R) and examined evaluations of several community-centered approaches, providing recommendations for researchers …

Female Prisoners, Mental Health, And Contact With Family And Friends, Katarzyna Celinska, Irina Fanarraga

Publications and Research

The present study explores the psychological symptoms of 194 female inmates housed in a northeast state prison. Imprisoned women completed Derogatis’ (2001) Brief Symptom Inventory-18 and responded to questions on the frequency of contact with family and friends via phone calls, letters, and visitations. The results showed significant correlations between psychological symptoms and modes of contact. Multiple regression models revealed that certain types of contact with family and friends had a statistically significant impact on the self-reported psychological symptoms of female inmates. Policy implications and recommendations are discussed.

Neighbors At Risk, Jeffrey A. Butts, Gina Moreno, Richard A. Espinobarros

Publications and Research

Most New York City neighborhoods did not experience high rates of shootings in recent years, but others clearly did. Comparing crime rates across these relatively small geographic areas is important for officials considering where to invest in resources that support public safety and community wellbeing.