Public Policy Commons^™

Employee-Based Versus Employer-Based Subsidies To Low-Wage Workers: A Public Finance Perspective, Stacy Dickert-Conlin, Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Center for Policy Research

We revisit the relative merits of employee-based versus employer-based labor market subsidies. While conventional analyses stress the equivalence of these approaches, we find a modest preference for employee-based approaches. Because the population of low-wage workers overlaps, but is not identical to, the populations of low-skill or low-income workers, simple employer-based approaches are likely to be poorly targeted. Targeting may be improved by identification of eligible workers, but identification itself raises the possibility of detrimental stigma associated with the program. When combined with lower participation rates among firms than among households, the size of employer-based subsidies needed to match the outcome …

Exploring The Effect Of Welfare Reform Implementation On The Attainment Of Policy Goals: An Examination Of Michigan's Counties, Jodi Sandfort

Center for Policy Research

This paper presents a cross-sectional examination of the implementation conditions within Michigan during the first year following the passage of federal welfare reform. It asks the question, “Do implementation factors in the welfare system quantitatively influence the achievement of public policy goals?” Drawing on data from 82 counties, this analysis provides an exploratory, multivariate model that controls for environmental factors outside of the influence of program implementers and examines the effects of macro- and micro-implementation conditions on an outcome desired by policy reforms. The results suggest that implementation factors do have a statistically discernible relationship to proportion of a county’s …

Stability And Change In The Living Arrangements Of Older Italian Women, 1990-1995, Cecilia Tomassini, Douglas A. Wolf

Center for Policy Research

In this work we analyze the living arrangements of elderly unmarried women in Italy. We use data from three surveys, collected in 1990, 1994, and 1995 by the Italian statistical agency ISTAT. We consider unmarried women aged 65 and older, and three household types (living alone, with children, or with others), taking into account the availability of children with whom they might share a household. During this period the percentage of elderly living alone fell slightly. We investigate these patterns with a structural analysis based on multinomial models. Results indicate that some individual variables (living in southern Italy, health status) …

Estimating The Income Effect On Retirement, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, David Joulfaian, Harvey S. Rosen

Center for Policy Research

One of the most important issues in the debate over Social Security is how various changes in the system would change retirement behavior. A critical parameter in this context is the income effect on retirement— how a change in income affects retirement behavior, ceteris paribus. To estimate the income effect, we examine tax-return generated data on the labor force activity of a group of older people before and after they receive inheritances. The results are consistent with the notion that income effects are small. Neither retirement decisions nor the magnitude of earnings conditional on working seem to be affected very …

A Time-Series Econometric Model Of The Upstate New York Economy, Donald H. Dutkowsky, James Follain, Seth Giertz

Center for Policy Research

The purpose of the research described in this report is to produce an econometric model of the Upstate New York economy and two metropolitan areas within it—Albany and Syracuse. The model is intended to satisfy three main criteria. First, the model should be capable of capturing the dynamic nature of the local economy. This simply reflects the widely held belief that the local economy’s response to various external forces and policies is unlikely to be immediate. Second, the model ought to be capable of generating short-run forecasts. In particular, quarterly forecasts for one or two years are preferred to long-run …

Traditionality, Modernity, And Household Composition: Parent-Child Coresidence In Contemporary Turkey, Hakan Aykan, Douglas A. Wolf

Center for Policy Research

We investigate the patterns and correlates of currently married adult children’s coresidence with their parents in Turkey, using data from the 1993 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey. We are particularly interested in “traditional” patterns of coresidence—that is, coresidence with one or both of the husband’s parents—and the effects of variables measuring traditionality at the individual and contextual levels on coresidence with any parent, and with the husband’s parents. The results indicate that coresidence among currently married children is not the norm. However, the odds of coresidence with the husband’s parents, given that a couple coresides with any parent, are very …

Residential Choices And Prospective Risks Of Nursing Home Entry, Kenneth A. Couch, Duke Kao

Center for Policy Research

Nationally representative estimates of the prospective risk of entry into a nursing home and the likelihood of residing in a nursing home are obtained using data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging: 1984-1990. The roles of demographic characteristics, kin availability, and health status in determining entry into and residence in nursing homes is examined. Caregivers facilitate community residence and reduce the risk of nursing home entry for those with functional limitations. Dementia in combination with functional limitations increases the risk of nursing home entry.

When Random Group Effects Are Cross-Correlated: An Application To Elderly Migration Flow Models, Karen S. Conway, Andrew J. Houtenville

Center for Policy Research

Incorporating random group effects has proven important to making correct statistical inferences about factors that only vary across groups. We note that it is possible to have more than one random effect in models using cross-sectional data and that these random effects could be correlated, unlike in the typical panel data situation. Extending the standard multiple random effects model in this way is greatly simplified by using the two-step estimator we develop. Our application to an elderly migration flow model provides an intuitive example of cross-correlated random group effects and demonstrates the ease of our estimator, as well as highlighting …

Intergenerational Co-Residence And Children's Incomes, Thomas A. Dunn, John W. Phillips

Center for Policy Research

This paper examines co-residence arrangements between older parents and their adult children. We sketch a model of the co-residence choice that accounts for the preferences of the parent and the child and incorporates parental altruism and demands for housing, goods, and privacy. The model predicts that poorer, unmarried or childless siblings are more likely than their siblings to co-reside. The empirical analysis exploits the information provided by respondents in the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) survey about all of their children living in and outside their household. Indeed, we find that poorer siblings are more likely …

Estate Taxes, Life Insurance, And Small Business, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, John W. Phillips, Harvey S. Rosen

Center for Policy Research

One criticism of the estate tax is that it prevents the owners of family businesses from passing their enterprises onto their children. The problem is that it may be difficult to pay estate taxes without liquidating the business. A natural question is why individuals with such concerns do not purchase enough life insurance to meet their estate tax liabilities. This paper examines whether and how people use life insurance to deal with the estate tax. We find that, other things being the same, business owners purchase more life insurance than other individuals. However, on the margin, their insurance purchases are …

Elderly Migration And State Fiscal Policy: Evidence From The 1990 Census Migration Flows+, Karen S. Conway, Andrew J. Houtenville

Center for Policy Research

The elderly’s unique economic situation makes some government expenditures more attractive and some forms of taxation less burdensome than others. This research investigates whether elderly migration is affected by state fiscal policies and discusses the possible consequences, both of which likely differ between younger and older elderly. Using state-to-state migration flows, we identify which states are gaining and losing younger versus older elderly people. We then estimate the migration flows as a function of the states’ amenities, cost of living, composition of government spending and alternative specifications of the tax system. We find that elderly migration is influenced by state …

Reflection Moderation In The U.S. Senate On Economics, Social, And Foreign Policy, Brian E. Russell

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates reelection moderation in the U.S. Senate on economic, social, and foreign policy between 1983 and 1994. I test 3 hypotheses based on the assumption that senators moderate their voting records when seeking reelection to appeal to the median voter. My hypotheses are: (1) Both groups of senators will moderate on economic policy, but a larger percentage of Democrats will moderate than Republicans (2) A majority of Democratic senators will moderate on social policy, but only a small percentage of Republicans will moderate. (3) Less than a majority of both groups of senators will moderate on foreign policy, …

Entrepreneurs, Income Taxes, And Investment, Robert Carroll, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mark Rider, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

This paper investigates the effect of entrepreneurs’ personal income tax situations on their capital investment decisions. We examine the income tax returns of a sample of sole proprietors before and after the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and determine how the substantial reductions in marginal tax rates for the relatively affluent associated with that law affected their decisions to invest in physical capital. We find that individual income taxes exert a statistically and quantitatively significant influence on investment decisions. In our sample, a 5 percentage point increase in marginal tax rates would reduce the proportion of entrepreneurs who make new …

Horatio Alger Meets The Mobility Tables, Douglas Holt-Eakin, Harvey S. Rosen, Robert Weathers

Center for Policy Research

The question of how entrepreneurship relates to income mobility is cogent given the current public debate about the sources of income inequality and mobility in United States society. We examine how experience with entrepreneurship has affected an individual’s place in the earnings distribution. Our basic tack is to follow individuals’ positions in the income distribution over time, and to see how their mobility (or lack thereof) was affected by involvement with entrepreneurship. Our main finding is that for low-income individuals there is some merit to the notion that the self-employed moved ahead in the earnings distribution relative to those who …

Income Taxes And Entrepreneurs' Use Of Labor, Robert Carroll, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mark Rider, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

This paper investigates the effect of entrepreneurs’ personal income tax situations on their use of labor. We analyze the income tax returns of a large number of sole proprietors before and after the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and determine how the substantial reductions in marginal tax rates associated with that law affected their decisions to hire labor and the size of their wage bills. We find that individual income taxes exert a statistically and quantitatively significant influence on the probability that an entrepreneur hires workers. Raising the entrepreneur’s “tax price” (one minus the marginal tax rate) by 10 percent …

Where Does The Money Come From? The Financing Of Small Entrepreneurial Enterprises, Zsuzsanna Fluck, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

Using data from the Wisconsin Entrepreneurial Climate Study, we study the sources of firms’ finance during the very early stages of their lives. Our focus is the evolution of the mix of financial capital from “insiders” and “outsiders” as firms age. We find that at the beginning of firms’ life cycles, the proportion of funds from internal sources increases with age, while the proportion from banks, venture capitalists, and private investors declines. There is also evidence that these patterns eventually reverse themselves, with the proportion of insider finance ultimately declining and the proportion of outsider finance increasing with age. We …

Financial Capital, Human Capital, And The Transition To Self-Employment: Evidence From Intergenerational Links, Thomas Dunn, Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Center for Policy Research

The environment for business creation is central to economic policy, as entrepreneurs are believed to be forces of innovation, employment and economic dynamism. We use data from the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) to investigate the relative importance of family financial and human capital in the transition into self-employment. Specifically, we estimate the impacts of own wealth and human capital and parental wealth and self-employment experience on the probability that an individual makes the transition from a wage and salary job to self-employment. We find that young men’s own financial assets exert a statistically significant, but quantitatively modest effect on the …

Apocalypse Now? Fundamental Tax Reform And Residential Housing Values, Donald Bruce, Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Center for Policy Research

Using a simulation model crafted to integrate the short-run and long-term impacts of tax reform on the housing market, we find modest impacts from fundamental reform of the Federal income tax. These results suggest that concerns over the impact of tax reform on housing values and household net worth are overstated. To the extent that reform is otherwise desirable, fears of drastic effects on the housing market should not stand as an impediment to reform. Donald

Discrimination In Qualitative Actions By Real Estate Brokers, Jan Ondrich, Alex Stricker

Center for Policy Research

Discrimination occurs when people in a particular class are systematically treated less favorably than other equally qualified people. This study focuses on racial and ethnic discrimination in qualitative actions by real estate brokers, such as showing a customer a housing unit that was advertised in the newspaper. The data come from the Housing Discrimination Study, which conducted over 2,000 fair housing audits of real estate brokers in 25 metropolitan areas in 1989. Each audit consists of a visit to a real estate agency by a white person and either a black or Hispanic person with similar socio-economic characteristics. Using Chamberlain’s …

Industrial Policy: Federal, State, And Local Response, Zenia Kotval

New England Journal of Public Policy

During the past twenty years, many economists and policymakers have strongly advocated that the United States formulate a national industrial policy to improve the competitiveness of American firms in the global marketplace. These proposals call for both direct and indirect assistance to specific industrial sectors. Some would contend that U.S. industrial policies are being challenged by newer growth theories that shift the focus from the nation as the basic unit of industrial geography to regions and municipalities. There is little argument about the need for industrial policies that tie national, state, and local initiatives together. However, confusion and disagreement exist …

Armut : Der Mensch Lebt Nicht Vom Brot Allein : Wege Zur Soziokulturellen Existenzsicherung, Isidor Wallimann, Susanne Schmid

Books

While the usual discussion about the poverty of the minimum financial security speaks, the authors ask what it could mean for to be living in a secure socio-cultural minimum. The fact is that poverty can be both "caused" by various forms of exclusion, as well as the socio-cultural exclusion promotes or "causes".

Differentiating Regulation Of Public And Private Institutions: A Preliminary Inquiry, Jonathan G.S. Koppell

Publications from President Jonathan G.S. Koppell

Twenty years ago, James Q. Wilson and Patricia Rachal argued that government cannot regulate itself. In an era of revived federalism, increased reliance on contractors, and proliferation of quasi-public organizations, the importance of government self-regulation is greater than ever. This paper tests an underlying assumption of Wilson and Rachal's claim: that regulation of public and private organizations can be differentiated. Employing a meta-research design, this pilot study uses existing regulatory case studies to create "regulatory relationship profiles" for public and private organizations. These profiles include information on the structure of the regulator, the intent of the regulation, the enforcement tools …

Eastward Ho: Issues And Options In Regional Development For The Metropolitan Boston Region, Robert C. Wood, Laura C. Ghirardini, Lori L. Prew, Aundrea Kelley

McCormack Graduate School General Publications (active until 2013)

Conventional wisdom suggests that the basic job of public policy studies (and public institutions, for that matter) is to deal in a timely and practical fashion with pressing public issues of the day. The focus typically is on 'ripe' topics, 'hot' political problems. If a study can be ahead of the curve, in John Kingdon's apt phrase "an idea whose time has come," so much the better. But unlike more traditional academic research, where the focus is timeless — i.e., an explanation of previously inexplicable phenomena, timeliness is a prime reason for initiating a policy study.

In this context, analyzing …

The Outlook For Onondaga County's Finances: Baseline Scenario, William Duncombe, Bernard Jump Jr.

Center for Policy Research

This is the third of four reports to the Onondaga Lake Management Conference about the economic and fiscal implications for Onondaga County of court-mandated expenditures for sewer-related remediation of Onondaga Lake.

How The Fruits Of Growth Were Distributed Among Working-Age Families In The United States And Germany In The 1980s, Richard V. Burkhauser, Amy D. Crews, Mary C. Daly

Center for Policy Research

We use cross-sectional and longitudinal data from Germany (Socio-Economic Panel) and the United States (Panel Study on Income Dynamics) to show how the income distribution changed over the 1980s business cycle in these two countries. Consistent with other researchers we find income inequality in the United States increased over the peak years of the 1980s business cycle and that the middle of the income distribution shrank. However, we also find that the great bulk of the disappearing middle shifted to the right— became richer— over the period. Hence, it was disproportionate gains from growth rather than the “immiseration” of the …

Expensive Children In Poor Families: Out-Of-Pocket Expenditures For The Care Of Disabled And Chronically Ill Children And Welfare Reform, Anna Lukemeyer, Marcia K. Meyers, Timothy M. Smeeding

Center for Policy Research

This study explores one aspect of the costs experienced by low-income families with one or more special needs children: direct, out-of-pocket expenses for items related to the child’s disability, such as special foods, transportation to medical clinics, or medical costs not covered by insurance. We find that almost half (46 percent) of a sample of California AFDC families with special needs children experienced some special expenses in the preceding month. About 20 percent of these low-income families experienced total costs exceeding $100. Families with severely disabled children were more likely to experience costs and tended to experience higher costs. While …

Placing A Lid On Marginal Tax Rates: A New Way To Simplify The Income Tax Structure, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

Thanks to the phasing out of exemptions and excess itemized deductions and to the alternative minimum tax, the federal income tax rate schedule is difficult to draw, to understand, and to connect with any tax principle. Moreover, some taxpayers now face unreasonably high marginal tax rates. This paper proposes a new approach that simplifies the income tax system at its point of intersection with taxpayers; sets absolute upper and lower bounds on true marginal tax rates; and allows for the phasing out of any or all exemptions, deductions, or other tax preferences according to clear principles. This approach can achieve …

The Economic And Fiscal Impact Of Lake Remediation On Onondaga County, William Duncombe, Shannon Felt, James R. Follain, Bernard Jump Jr.

Center for Policy Research

This is the fourth and final report to the Onondaga Lake Management Conference about the economic and fiscal implications for Onondaga County of court-mandated expenditures for sewer-related remediation of Onondaga Lake. Exactly how much remediation will cost and what, precisely, will be the technical specifications of the plan that is finally approved by the court are both still to be decided. Yet, there is little doubt that an undertaking of the dollar magnitude contemplated for lake remediation has the potential to affect the fiscal condition of the county and the future health of the local economy.

The Cost Of Caring: Childhood Disability And Poor Families, Marcia K. Meyers, Anna Lukemeyer, Timothy M. Smeeding

Center for Policy Research

Children in poor families are at heightened risk for disabilities and chronic health problems, and care for these children can impose substantial costs on families and public programs. Although the prevalence and costs of disabilities among poor children have important policy implications, they have been largely overlooked in research on poverty and welfare and on the costs of childhood disabilities. This paper analyzes the prevalence of childhood disabilities and chronic illness among welfare recipient families in California and the probability families caring for these children experience higher out-of-pocket costs and material hardship then do other similar families.

Telecommunications Divestment: An Erosion Of Democracy In The Caribbean, Patricia K. Mccormick

Communication Faculty Research Publications

This article examines the undemocratic process of telecommunications divestment in Jamaica and Trin- idad and Tobago. The divestment of the telecommunications sector was largely prompted by each state’s inability to service external debt. Despite espousing the importance of public participation in the ownership of state-owned en- terprises being divested, the governments each limited or excluded nationals from ownership of the telephony com- panies. Divestment of the telecommunications sector was principally undertaken through private negotiations with Cable and Wireless which has historically provided service to former British colonies. This continued colonization of the telecommunications sector is at odds with the democratic …