Defense and Security Studies Commons^™

Inconsistencies Emerge Between Regional And Local-Scale Water Security Metrics At Military Installations, Abigail Birnbaum, Michael L. Berg, Caitlin Grady, Daniel J. Weeks, Christopher M. Chini

Faculty Publications

Recent United States federal policy for military installations has emphasized the importance of developing a standardized approach for water security assessment to monitor changes in water resources and the ability for an installation to meet both its civilian and mission needs. For military installations in the United States, these assessments must consider demands both inside and outside the installation’s fence line, as regional resources are required to meet mission readiness. Focusing on physical water scarcity, this study compares four water security metrics with unique formulations and spatial resolutions, including an installation-scale metric and multiple regional metrics defined for either baseline …

A Panel Data Regression Model For Defense Merger And Acquisition Activity, Corey D. Mack, Clay Koschnick, Michael Brown, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brandon M. Lucas

Faculty Publications

Excerpt: This paper examines the relationship between a prime contractor's financial health and its mergers and acquisitions (M&A) spending in the defense industry. It aims to provide models that give the United States Department of Defense (DoD) indications of future M&A activity, informing decision-makers and contributing to ensuring competitive markets that benefit the consumer.

The results show a significant relationship between efficiency and M&A spending, indicating that companies with lower efficiency tend to spend more on M&As. However, there was no significant relationship between M&A spending and a company's profitability or solvency. These results were consistent with previous research and …

Toward Adaptive And Modular Joint Multi-Domain Operational Planning, Kyle S. Wilkinson

Theses and Dissertations

This research develops a multiparametric optimization framework for modeling joint multi-domain operational planning under uncertainty. We address the application of our framework to model the doctrine of adaptive planning. We apply set-based design, which is a program management practice of maintaining maximal design options through time as a response to epistemic uncertainty. We couple this with a multiparametric optimization method yielding both sets of solutions and sensitivity profiles. We use the sensitivity profiles to quantify risk associated with changes during adaptive planning. This research also models features of military operational planning via the mathematics of category theory. We formalize intuitive …

Domain Restriction Zones: An Evolution Of The Military Exclusion Zone, Cole M. Mooty, Robert A. Bettinger, Mark G. Reith

Faculty Publications

Since the early part of the twenty-first century, US adversaries have expanded their military capabilities within and their access to new warfighting domains. When faced with the growth of adversaries’ asymmetric capabilities, the means, tactics, and strategies previously used by the US military lose their proportional effectiveness. To avoid such degradation of capability, the operational concept of the military exclusion zone (MEZ) should be revised to suit the modern battlespace while also addressing the shifts in national policy that encourage diplomacy over military force. The concept and development of domain restriction zones (DRZs) increase the relevancy of traditional MEZs in …

A Hierarchical Cluster Approach Toward Understanding The Regional Variable In Country Conflict Modeling, Benjamin D. Leiby, Darryl K. Ahner

Faculty Publications

Purpose: This paper aims to examine how the regional variable in country conflict modeling affects forecast accuracy and identifies a methodology to further improve the predictions.

Design/methodology/approach: This paper uses statistical learning methods to both evaluate the quantity of data for clustering countries along with quantifying accuracy according to the number of clusters used.

Findings: This study demonstrates that increasing the number of clusters for modeling improves the ability to predict conflict as long as the models are robust.

Originality/value: This study investigates the quantity of clusters used in conflict modeling, while previous research assumes a specific quantity before …

Measuring Radiation Protection: Partners From Across The Nuclear Enterprise Evaluate The Radiation Protection Of Us Army Vehicles, Andrew W. Decker, Robert Prins

Faculty Publications

Recent mounting nuclear threats and postures from adversary nation-states, such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, represent a clear danger to the interests and security of the United States of America and its Allies. To meet these threats, the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review requires the Department of Defense (DoD) to design, develop, and manage a combat-credible U.S. military which, among other prioritizations, is survivable. A survivable force can generate combat power despite adversary attacks. As such, the US Army must prepare today to set the conditions for successful conventional warfare on the nuclear battlefields of tomorrow. Our Army cannot …

The Effects Of International Defense Sales On Aerospace Prime Contractor Profitability, Gregory T. Sanders

Theses and Dissertations

Faced with declining defense budgets following the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, US defense contractors needed to explore other sources of revenue outside of typical domestic defense sales to survive. Expansion into the international defense sales market was one of the avenues pursued by defense contractors attempting to capture profits (Deutch, 2001). However, not many studies have been found assessing the relationship between international defense sales and profitability since then. This research examines the relationship between international defense sales and profitability using data collected on the top five US defense contractors from 1994-2021. Time-series analysis is …

Bmi And Physical Activity, Military-Aged U.S. Population 2015–2020, Bryant J. Webber, Daniel B. Bornstein, Patricia A. Deuster, Francis G. O'Connor, Sohyun Park, Kenneth M. Rose, Geoffrey P. Whitfield

Faculty Publications

Excerpt: Obesity and physical inactivity are considered possible U.S. national security threats because of their impact on military recruitment. The objectives of this study were to estimate the prevalence of (1) BMI eligibility for military entrance, (2) adequate physical activity participation among the BMI-eligible population, and (3) combined BMI eligibility and adequate physical activity.

This cross-sectional study of nonpregnant, military-aged civilians (aged 17–42 years) used objectively measured weight and height data and self-reported aerobic physical activity data from the 2015–2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. BMI eligibility was defined as 19.0–27.5 kg/m2, per Department of Defense regulation. Adequate physical …

Beyond The High Ground: A Taxonomy For Earth-Moon System Operations, Adam P. Wilmer, Robert A. Bettinger

Faculty Publications

Situational and space domain awareness in the space domain can no longer be confined to that which is found in geosynchronous orbit. International activities—commercial and military—and threats to the planet itself exist and are increasing across the entire Earth-Moon system. This reality requires a new taxonomy to accurately classify space domain awareness missions and better apply resources to and development of the same. This work presents such a taxonomy for the classification of space domain awareness regions.

A Quantitative Argument For Autonomous Aerial Defense Overembedded Missile Systems To Thwart Cruise Threats, Andrew R. Davis

Theses and Dissertations

Given the high cost of missile defense systems, their ability to be overwhelmed, and rising tensions between the U.S. and adversaries in the Indo-Pacific region, a new modeled is proposed to investigate a new approach to missile defense. The Autonomous Aerial Defense Against Missiles (AADAM) system leverages reusable, small-scale UAVs to propose a cheaper, more effective system in defending against cruise missile threats. The aim of this system is to provide and additional layer in current missile defense strategies at lower-cost. This modeled system is found to outperform a modeled Patriot system in close-range interception of designated assets, with no …

Black Space Versus Blue Space: A Proposed Dichotomy Of Future Space Operations, Robert A. Bettinger, Carl A. Poole

Faculty Publications

This article will examine the proposed space operations structure by first outlining the historical foundations for differences in maritime and air domain military capabilities, specifically brown-w­ater versus blue-w­ater navies, and “local/ regional” versus “global” airpower. Next, the article will present the concept of black space and blue space in terms of an environment-­specific definition, as well as an examination of the technical capability requirements, mission types, and national prestige and geopolitical considerations underpinning the proposed operation types. Finally, the article will explore how the USSF might support future space exploration within the black-­space and blue-s­pace operations structure.

An Argument Against Satellite Resiliency: Simplicity In The Face Of Modern Satellite Design, Dax Linville, Robert A. Bettinger

Faculty Publications

The US Air Force and the wider US government rely heavily on space-based capabilities in various orbital regimes to project national security and sovereignty. However, these capabilities are enabled by the design, launch, and operation of satellites produced with a design methodology that favors large, monolithic, and technologically exquisite space systems. Despite the ability for these satellites to provide enduring and resilient capabilities, they suffer from a woefully long acquisition process that debilitates any prospect of rapid satellite reconstitution in the event of a space war.

Air Force Space Programs: Comparing Estimates To Final Development Budgets, Christopher Elworth, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Gregory E. Brown

Faculty Publications

This article analyzes how development budget estimates, as reported in the Selected Acquisition Reports, change over time for primarily Air Force space programs. Government acquisition policy emphasizes the importance of developing an accurate point estimate for programs to ensure program budget efficiency; however, statistics imply space programs tend to underspend at the beginning of the program and to overspend at the end of Initial Operational Capability. This suggests new phasing methods that reflect the unique needs of space and perhaps other developmental-type programs by allocating more of the budget in later years rather than at the beginning of the program, …

The Nuclear Network: Multiplex Network Analysis For Interconnected Systems, Bethany L. Goldblum, Andrew W. Reddie, Thomas C. Hickey, James E. Bevins, Sarah Laderman, Nathaniel Mahowald, Austin P. Wright, Elie Katzenson, Yara Mubarak

Faculty Publications

States facing the decision to develop a nuclear weapons program do so within a broader context of their relationships with other countries. How these diplomatic, economic, and strategic relationships impact proliferation decisions, however, remains under-specified. Adding to the existing empirical literature that attempts to model state proliferation decisions, this article introduces the first quantitative heterogeneous network analysis of how networks of conflict, alliances, trade, and nuclear cooperation interact to spur or deter nuclear proliferation. Using a multiplex network model, we conceptualize states as nodes linked by different modes of interaction represented on individual network layers. Node strength is used to …

Wartime Construction Project Outcomes As A Function Of Contract Type, Ryan M. Hoff, Gregory D. Hammond, Peter P. Feng, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

The United States has spent more than $23 billion on construction in Afghanistan since 2001. The dynamic security situation created substantial project uncertainty, and many construction projects used cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts (CPFF) instead of the firm-fixed-price (FFP) norm. Using a dataset of 25 wartime construction projects managed by the Air Force Civil Engineer Center, the authors sought to confirm that both contract types yield project outcomes consistent with the established literature. As expected, they found CPFF contracts had greater cost and schedule growth than FFP. However, they did not find differences regarding as-built quality. Additionally, the authors sought to determine whether …

Value Focused Thinking For Nation Building In Afghanistan: A Regional Perspective, Muhammad S. Riaz

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis is an effort to mathematically model the nation building effort that is underway in Afghanistan. The thesis examines this nation building effort from the perspective of a local person who understands Afghan culture better than a foreigner. The thesis employs value-focused thinking to categorize the factors that we need to focus on for nation building in descending order of priority. This research adds a new dimension to the models already available in the literature and is likely to be more readily embraced by the local people who are sometimes in conflict with American priorities.

The Hybrid Counterinsurgency Strategy: System Dynamics Employed To Develop A Behavioral Model Of Joint Strategy, Ferdinand Maldonado

Theses and Dissertations

Since the recent focus on the Global War on Terror, both military and civilian theorists have begun to “relearn” the intricacies of counterinsurgency warfare. We face difficult challenges when confronting non-state actors that tend to attack in the time between conventional battles and the establishment of stable governments. This research compares and contrasts current counterinsurgency strategies (Hearts and Minds and Cost Benefit Theory) by applying System Dynamics to provide insight into the influences and emergent behavior patterns of counterinsurgency systems. The information gained from the development of the models and from their simulation behaviors is used to construct a System …

Maximizing Warfighter Capability Using Surveyed Necessity Measurement: Application To The Usaf F-15c Fleet, John M. Colombi, David R. Jacques, Dennis D. Strouble

Faculty Publications

Within the Department of Defense, with changing missions to counter dynamic and asymmetrical threats, the acquisition workforce strives to maximize capability for joint warfighting. How acquisition professionals measure and select capability improvements for the nation’s weapon systems is a perpetual challenge, made even more complex with constrained defense budgets. This study identifies a method for determining which upgrades should be purchased (production) for which aircraft in the F- 15C fleet by optimizing a capability proxy measure. Each upgrade’s “necessity” for a given mission area was obtained by conducting a survey of over 250 experienced F-15C pilots. The solution presented in …

An Analysis Of Second-Tier Arms Producing Country Offset Policies: Technology Transfer And Defense Industrial Base Establishment, Brian S. Confer

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this thesis is to determine if offsets are an effective means of second-tier countries acquiring technology and if offsets enhance their ability to establish and maintain an industrial base capable of producing high-technology weapons for use indigenously and for export. Included in the research was an analysis of factors that lead to successful or unsuccessful technology transfer through the utilization of offsets. Additionally, the research analyzed the factors that lead to the successful or unsuccessful establishment and maintenance of an indigenous defense industrial base through the utilization of offsets. The author concludes that the utilization of offsets …

Operationalizing Offensive Social Engineering For The Air Force, Bryan E. Skarda

Theses and Dissertations

Social engineering is the art and science of persuading individuals to bypass in place security mechanisms causing the unintended release of information. It is a low tech solution to a high tech problem and is as much an art as a science. As is true of many such solutions, social engineering is both ill-defined yet extremely effective. Its low cost, high payoff nature makes it an extremely attractive alternative to adversaries that do not have access to all the resources of a nation state. However, with full backing, the weapon can become that much more effective. Social engineering is something …

Modeling And Analysis Of Resolve And Morale For The `Long War', Michael J. Artelli

Theses and Dissertations

In The Art of War, Sun Tzu begins by stating: "War is a matter of vital importance to the State; the province of life or death; the road to survival or ruin. It is mandatory that it be thoroughly studied." Sun Tzu follow's this opening by stating five fundamental factors a commander must master to be successful in combat. The first of these factors is moral influence which Sun Tzu defines as "that which causes the people to be in harmony with their leaders, so they will accompany them in life and death without fear of mortal peril." In the …

An Analysis Of The Impact Of Defense Acquisition Reforms And External Factors On Schedule Growth Of Defense Weapon Systems, Michael P. Giacomazzi Iii

Theses and Dissertations

The growth in the acquisition cycle time of large defense systems from what was planned (i.e., schedule growth) creates several issues for defense acquisition managers and policy makers. These issues include increased likelihoods of cancellations, changes in requirements, and delays in the fielding of improved combat capabilities and replacements for legacy systems, which have resulted in further cost and schedule growth. As a result, Congress, the DoD, and the individual military services implemented several major reforms to address the cost and schedule growth of weapon systems. This research presents an empirical model of schedule growth to evaluate the impact of …

South Korea's Current Status Of Fms, Hyoungill Moon

Theses and Dissertations

South Korea has been threatened by North Korea and surrounded by powerful countries since the Korean War in 1950~1953. One resource that maintains South Korea’s security is the strong alliance with the U.S. The primary function of the alliance has been Foreign Military Sales (FMS). As the world circumstances change, South Korea may need more self-reliant defense power that can maintain its security with its own authority. This thesis looks at where South Korea stands on FMS from the U.S, considering its economy, technology development, military expenditure, and dispute condition using Multiple Regression model. South Korea’s current FMS trade amount …

Planning And Assessing Stability Operations: A Proposed Value-Focused Thinking Approach, Gerald D. Fensterer

Theses and Dissertations

Stability operations are vital to establish peace in the aftermath of conflict. The United States is often called in for military support during conflict. The new American military paradigms include establishing peace through stability operations after a military conflict. Due to this new role, military decision makers face many difficulties in conducting successful stability operations. Compounding this problem is the limited number of resources pertaining to stability operations: experts, doctrine, knowledge, and technology. Two overarching challenges of stability operations facing decision makers are planning and prioritizing of stability operations and determining progress. This thesis applies a structured analytical approach to …

Modeling Network Centric Warfare (Ncw) With The System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (Seas), Jason B. Honabarger

Theses and Dissertations

Significant technological advances over the past few decades have fueled the continual and rapid development of an information-based world. Network Centric Warfare (NCW) has become the buzzword of the young millennium within the Department of Defense (DoD) and is quickly becoming a popularly shared vision and rallying cry for force transformation among United States military leaders. An essential element in fully implementing this network-centric way of thinking is to develop useful measures to help gauge the effectiveness and efficiency of both our military networks and our strategic NCW doctrine. The goal of this research is first to provide a comprehensive …

A Methodology For Performing Effects-Based Assessments, Benjamin A. Thoele

Theses and Dissertations

In order to bring the doctrine of Effects-Based Operations (EBO) into a fully operational capability, Effects-Based Assessment (EBA) must provide relevant insight to the commander and his planning staff. Assessments of an effects-based plan and execution must include an assessment of the effects of a campaign on the enemy in addition to an assessment of the accomplishment of friendly actions taken to achieve the desired effects. Determining the effects of a campaign requires an analysis of the dynamics of the enemy systems. EBA must be able to recognize the states of the enemy's systems as the system states change over …

Strategic Airlift En Route Analysis To Support The Global War On Terrorism Using A Value Focused Thinking Approach, Marykathryn W. Tharaldson

Theses and Dissertations

The Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) has yielded new challenges to the United States' strategic airlift infrastructure. The network of en-route airfields that serve as refueling and maintenance stops were designed primarily to service relatively static Cold War requirements. However, the GWOT has resulted in the need for an infrastructure that is responsive to a highly dynamic environment. This research uses a "value focused" methodology to identify en-route airfield locations that simultaneously maximize cargo throughput capability while possessing a high degree of adaptability to volatile cargo delivery requirements.

Investigating The Complexities Of Nation-Building: A Sub-National Regional Perspective, Matthew J. Robbins

Theses and Dissertations

Stabilization and reconstruction operations are necessary to secure and maintain the peace in the aftermath of conflict. The complexities of nation-building involve many different but interrelated systems and institutions. The basic structure of a country may or may not remain; its political, economic, and judicial systems, cultural, educational, medical, and military institutions, and critical infrastructure all vitally contribute to the overall progression of stability and prosperity. Understanding the significance of the dynamic relationships between the forces in play during stability and reconstruction operations is paramount to the successful conclusion of such missions. The system dynamics model proposed in this research …

Establishing A Cyber Warrior Force, Scott D. Tobin

Theses and Dissertations

Cyber Warfare is widely touted to be the next generation of warfare. As America's reliance on automated systems and information technology increases, so too does the potential vulnerability to cyber attack. Nation and non-nation states are developing the capability to wage cyber warfare. Historically, the Air Force and DoD have concentrated their efforts toward defensive network operations. However, a shift in doctrine has shown both the Air Force and DoD acknowledging the potential for Information Warfare. What appears to be lacking is the trained and educated cyber warrior force that will carry out the information operations if needed. This research …

Overcoming Resistance To Change: An Analysis To The Department Of Defense's Anthrax Vaccine Immunization Program, Irene C. Johnson

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this research was to investigate the impact of change on organizations, in the absence of a preparedness program and to develop strategies for overcoming resistance to change, in the midst of a proposed initiative that has become stalled as a result of mistrust and cynicism. The results of this research suggests a framework of management techniques that will offer leadership approaches to resurrecting a stalled change initiative and overcoming personnel's resistance to a proposed change project, in order for the project to be more widely accepted. A series of personal interviews and focus groups, a qualitative method …