Regional Economics Commons^™

Sales Capture Patterns Among Nebraska Counties, Eric Thompson, Spencer Cook

Business in Nebraska

Sales capture, the share of local spending power that is captured by area businesses, is an important measure of economic activity. Greater sales capture, which is typically measured using data on local taxable sales, creates multiple benefits for the economy. 1. EMPLOYMENT: Greater sales capture means more employment in retailers, wholesalers, restaurants, hotels, and other businesses subject to sales tax. 2. TAX REVENUE: Taxable sales are an important part of the tax base of many city governments. 3. QUALITY OF LIFE: Retail and hospitality (restaurants, lodging, amusement, and recreation) businesses account for a significant share of taxable sales. These industries …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: July 28, 2021, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 1.17% during June 2021, the ninth consecutive monthly increase. Steady improvement in the leading indicator implies that economic growth will be strong in Nebraska during the second half of 2021. Three components of the leading indicator rose during June. Business expectations, airline passenger counts, and initial claims for unemployment insurance all showed improvement. Specifically, respondents to the June Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment in the state over the next six months. Airline passenger enplanements rose sharply as the industry moved closer to pre-pandemic levels of activity. Initial claims for unemployment …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: June 30, 2021, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 2.33% during May 2021, the third month in a row of rapid growth and the eighth consecutive monthly increase. Rapid improvement in the leading indicator implies that economic growth will be strong in Nebraska during the second half of 2021. All six components of the leading indicator rose during May. Business expectations, manufacturing hours-worked, and airline passenger counts were the strongest components. Respondents to the May Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment over the next six months. Manufacturing hours-worked grew rapidly while airline passenger enplanements also rose sharply as the industry …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: May 26, 2021, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 1.96% during April 2021. The leading indicator rose due to strong business expectations, increased manufacturing activity, and growing airline passenger counts. Respondents to the April Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment over the next six months. The value of the U.S. dollar also fell during April, improving prospects for Nebraska businesses that compete in international markets. The composite LEI-N has risen during each of the last seven months, suggesting that the Nebraska economy will expand at a robust pace through the second half of 2021.

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: April 28, 2021, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 1.49% during March 2021. The indicator has risen during each of the last six months, suggesting that the Nebraska economy will expand at a robust pace through the summer of 2021. In March, the leading indicator primarily rose due to strong business expectations and rising airline activity. The pace of recovery in airline passenger enplanements improved during March. In addition, March respondents to the Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment over the next six months. Manufacturing hours worked also rose in March while there was a small decline in initial claims …

Nebraska Recovers From The Pandemic Economy, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

The COVID-19 Pandemic threw the United States economy into a severe and sharp recession during the first half of 2020. A combination of government “shutdown” restrictions and private actions led to a particularly severe decline in economic activity in late March and April. The lifting or reduction of government restrictions across the United States led to a fast recovery in subsequent months, especially as businesses and consumers learned to adapt to their new operating conditions. However, the rate of recovery has slowed recently as the spread of Covid-19 has accelerated and many businesses have curtailed travel, maintained “work from home” …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: March 31, 2021, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 1.05% during February 2021. The indicator has risen during each of the last five months, suggesting that the Nebraska economy will expand solidly through the summer of 2021. In February, the leading indicator primarily rose due to increased manufacturing activity and strong business expectations. There was a large increase in manufacturing hours worked and respondents to the February Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment over the next six months. Airline passenger counts also rose modestly, while there was a small decline in initial claims for unemployment insurance on a seasonally-adjusted basis. …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: February 24, 2021, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 0.72% during January 2021. The indicator has risen during each of the last four months, suggesting that the Nebraska economy will expand solidly through mid- 2021. In January, the leading indicator primarily rose due to strong business expectations. Respondents to the January Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment over the next six months. Overall, three of the six components of the leading indicator improved during January. Airline passenger counts rose modestly, while the value of the U.S. dollar fell. A weaker dollar is positive for Nebraska businesses which compete in international …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: January 29, 2021, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 0.36% during December 2020. The indicator has risen during each of the last three months. The rising indicator suggests that the Nebraska economy will expand solidly over the next 6 months. Three of the six components of the leading indicator improved during December. Building permits for single-family homes and airline passenger counts both rose modestly. Further, the value of the U.S. dollar dropped sharply in December, which will improve competitive conditions for agricultural producers, manufacturers, and other Nebraska businesses that export. Business expectations, however, were one area of concern. Respondents to the December Survey of Nebraska …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: December 23, 2020, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 0.61% during November 2020. The rising indicator suggests that the Nebraska economy will expand over the next 6 months. Five of the six components of the leading indicator improved during November. Manufacturing hours-worked and building permits for single-family homes both rose. Business expectations also were positive, with respondents to the November Survey of Nebraska Business reporting plans to increase employment. The value of the U.S. dollar also declined in November, which will improve competitive conditions for agricultural producers, manufacturers, and other Nebraska businesses which export. Airline passenger enplanements were the only component to decline during November.

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: November 25, 2020, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose during October 2020, by 1.83%. The rising indicator confirms that the Nebraska economy should continue to expand over the next 6 months. Five of the six components of the leading indicator improved during October. Manufacturing hours-worked rebounded in October after declining over the previous 3 months. Business expectations also were positive, with respondents to the October Survey of Nebraska Business reporting plans to increase employment over the next 6 months. The value of the U.S. dollar also declined, which will improve competitive conditions for Nebraska businesses that export. Building permits for single-family homes and airline passenger enplanements …

Producer Services: An Engine For High-Wage Job Growth, Spencer Cook, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

Producer services providers are firms that sell services primarily to the business community rather than to individuals and households. Many producer services businesses are classified in the professional, scientific, and technical service (PSTS) industry. Accounting firms, consultants, and computer design services are prominent examples of PSTS businesses that are worth studying for three reasons:

1. SUPPORT OF OTHER INDUSTRIES: PSTS industries supply the broader business community, making them a critical segment of the economy.

2. RAPID HIGH WAGE JOB GROWTH: Many PSTS industries are rapidly growing and pay high wages. The producer services sector, in fact, is the principal source …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: October 28, 2020, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose slightly during September 2020, by 0.09%. While the pace of improvement has slowed, September marks the fifth consecutive increase in the leading indicator after sharp declines in March and April. The September result indicates that the Nebraska economy will grow at a modest pace over the next 6 months. Four of the components of the leading indicator improved during September. Airline passenger enplanements grew slowly after seasonal adjustment, but there was a drop in initial claims for unemployment insurance during the month. The value of the U.S. dollar also declined, which will improve competitive conditions for businesses …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: September 23, 2020, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

e LEI-N rose by 0.85% during August 2020. August marked the fourth consecutive increase in the leading indicator after sharp declines in March and April. The August result indicates that the Nebraska economy will grow over the next 6 months, continuing a steady recovery from large economic losses in March and April. Five of the six components of the leading indicator improved during August. Airline passenger enplanements grew modestly after seasonal adjustment, and there was a modest increase in building permits for single-family homes. There also was a drop in initial claims for unemployment insurance and the value of the …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: August 26, 2020, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 0.59% during July of 2020. July marked the third consecutive increase in the leading indicator after sharp declines in March and April. The July result indicates that the Nebraska economy will grow over the next 6 months, continuing a steady recovery from large economic losses in March and April. Five of the six components of the leading indicator improved during July. Airline passenger enplanements continued a steady rebound, and there was a modest increase in building permits for single-family homes. There also was a slight drop in initial claims for unemployment insurance and a drop in …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: July 24, 2020, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 1.72% during June of 2020. The June increase followed sharp declines in March and April. The June result indicates that the Nebraska economy will grow over the next 6 months, continuing the steady recovery from large economic losses in March and April. All six components of the leading indicator improved during June. The slow rebound in airline passenger enplanements continued, and manufacturing hours-worked increased. There also was a slight drop in initial claims for unemployment insurance and a drop in the value of the U.S. dollar in June. A lower U.S. dollar improves competitive conditions for …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: June 24, 2020, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 2.45% during May of 2020. The May increase followed sharp declines in March and April. The May results indicate that the Nebraska economy will grow over the next 6 months, allowing the state to begin to recover from economic losses in March and April. Four of the five components of the leading indicator improved during May. There was a significant decline in initial claims for unemployment insurance. The slow rebound in airline passenger enplanements also began. In addition, building permits for single-family homes rebounded in May after an April drop. The value of the U.S. dollar …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: May 28, 2020, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N fell by 5.57% during April of 2020 as the COVID-19 Pandemic continued to impact Nebraska’s economy. The decline in April followed a large decline in March. Taken together, the two monthly drops suggest that the Nebraska economy will be smaller in the fall of 2020 than it was during January and February of this year. All components of the leading indicator worsened during April. There were few airline passenger enplanements during April. In addition, both building permits for single-family homes and manufacturing hours-worked declined while initial claims for unemployment insurance rose. There also was another increase in the …

The Nebraska Economy Responds To The Covid-19 Pandemic, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

The Nebraska economy will contract in 2020 but the rate of decline will not be as rapid as nationwide. The economic structure of Nebraska is more focused on production and transportation than the national economy and less focused on hard-hit industries such as hospitality, entertainment, automobile parts and assembly, and oil production. Nebraska also may benefit from a higher quality workforce, which is better able to adapt to changing economic conditions.

Employment will drop by 2.4% in Nebraska in 2020, much less than the national rate of decline. Employment will rebound by 2.0% in 2021 and 1.4% in 2022. With …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: April 29, 2020, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N fell by 7.96% during March of 2020 as the COVID-19 Pandemic impacted Nebraska’s economy. The leading indicator primarily fell due to a spike in initial claims for unemployment insurance and a sharp drop in the airline passenger enplanements during March. Other components of the leading indicator also were impacted, given a decline in both building permits for single-family homes and manufacturing hours-worked. There also was a sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar during March, which creates additional challenges for both agriculture and manufacturing businesses. The decline in the leading indicator suggests that the Nebraska economy …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: March 31, 2020, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 report for this month reflects data from February 2020, a period before the Covid-19 Pandemic began to have a very significant impact on the U.S. economy. As a result, the outlook provided by the leading indicator will not capture the decline in economic activity that occurred beginning in March 2020. Nonetheless, the LEI-N report is presented here to provide information about where the Nebraska economy was headed before the current health crisis. The LEI-N fell by 0.19% during February of 2020. The modest decrease in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: February 26, 2020, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.15% during January of 2020. The modest decrease in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, followed a strong increase in December 2019. Taken together, the two monthly results indicate moderate economic growth in Nebraska through mid-2020. The leading indicator fell due to a drop in airline passenger enplanements and an increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance. However, business expectations remained positive during the month, with respondents to the January Survey of Nebraska Business reporting plans to increase sales and employment at …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: January 22, 2020, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 rose by 1.10% during December of 2019. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, confirms expectations for moderate economic growth in Nebraska through mid-2020. The leading indicator primarily rose due to strong business expectations. Respondents to the December Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months. There also was a rebound in building permits for single-family homes during the month, suggesting an increase in construction activity mid-year.

Finally, Nebraska: A Synthetic Control Analysis Of Legislative Structure, William B. Hankins

Research, Publications & Creative Work

I estimate the impact of Nebraska’s 1937 switch from a bicameral to a unicameral legislature on state-level government expenditures. Using the synthetic control method I create a counterfactual Nebraska from a weighted-average of other potential control states and compare spending in this “synthetic Nebraska” to spending in the real Nebraska. Relative to the synthetic control, Nebraska experiences a sharp decrease in expenditures per capita immediately following the switch to a unicameral legislature, however, the difference appears to diminish over time. Placebo tests show that if the change in Nebraska’s legislative structure were randomly assigned amongst the sample of states, and …

Consumers Support A Slowing Economy, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

Nebraska will record moderate economic growth during the forecast period but will lag U.S. growth. Like the national economy, growth Nebraska’s goods producing sector will struggle. Farm incomes will be flat from 2020 to 2022 after improving this year. Manufacturing employment also is expected to drop. However, most other sectors will expand, including services, finance and construction. Projected growth rates for 2020 to 2022 are presented in Table 1.

Employment will grow by 0.6% to 0.8% per year, below the national rate. Non-farm income will grow between 3.7% and 3.8% each year. This growth readily exceeds inflation and population growth, …

Producer Services: A Hub For Stem And An Engine For Job Growth, Eric Thompson, Uyen Tran

Business in Nebraska

The producer services sector, which includes professional and technical services such as accounting, engineering, computer programming, advertising and consulting, is the fastest growing, high-wage segment of the U.S. economy. Producer services employment grew by 15 percent nationwide from 2008 through 2017 but only by 5 percent in Nebraska. Nebraska growth lagged the nation in part because the state has smaller metropolitan areas. Producer service businesses tend to congregate in larger cities. To grasp more opportunities in this growing, high wage sector, Nebraska needs to train more workers in STEM occupations, encourage the development of small businesses in the sector, and …

Trends And Tariffs: Nebraska In An Aging Recovery, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

Nebraska will record solid economic growth during the forecast period but will lag U.S. growth. Nebraska’s large farming sector is struggling and will not contribute much to economic growth during the forecast period. Job growth also will be sluggish in transportation and retail trade. Job growth, however, will be stronger in the services, finance, manufacturing and construction. Projected growth rates for 2019 to 2021 are presented in Table 1.

Employment will grow by 0.7% to 0.9% per year, below the national rate. Nonfarm income will grow between 4.4% and 4.5% each year. This growth readily exceeds inflation and population growth, …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: September 26, 2018, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 rose by 1.00% during August of 2018. Solid growth in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests that Nebraska economic growth will be solid during the first few months of 2019. Business expectations were a positive component of the leading indicator. Respondents to the August Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months. There also was an improvement in manufacturing hours and airline passenger counts, while initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped.

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: August 22, 2018, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 was flat during July of 2018, rising by just 0.05%. A flat value for the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests that Nebraska economic growth will slow significantly at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019. Business expectations were a positive component of the leading indicator. Respondents to the July Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months. However, a rising U.S. dollar and a drop in building permits for …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: July 25, 2018, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.40% during June of 2018. The decline in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests that the pace of Nebraska economic growth will slow significantly during the 4th quarter of 2018. The indicator fell due to another sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar. A rising dollar puts additional pressure on Nebraska businesses which export. A decline in manufacturing hours and an increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance also contributed to the drop in the LEI-N. Business expectations were …