Public Economics Commons^™

Intergenerational Earnings Mobility In Singapore And The United States, Irene Y. H. Ng, Xiaoyi Shen, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study compared intergenerational earnings mobility in Singapore and the United States by replicating the sample criteria in the Singapore National Youth Survey on the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The mean estimated earnings elasticities are almost identical: 0.26 in Singapore and 0.28 in the United States. Transformed to 0.44 and 0.47 respectively to reflect permanent status, mobility in the two countries is moderately low compared internationally. The finding of similar mobility is not surprising given that the two countries have similar economic realities, welfare systems, education regimes, and labor structures. Policy makers face the daunting challenge of overcoming …

A Centered Index Of Spatial Concentration: Axiomatic Approach With An Application To Population And Capital Cities, Filipe R. Campante, Quoc-Anh Do

Research Collection School Of Economics

We construct an axiomatic index of spatial concentration around a center or capital point of interest, a concept with wide applicability from urban economics, economic geography and trade, to political economy and industrial organization. We propose basic axioms (decomposability and monotonicity) and refinement axioms (order preservation, convexity, and local monotonicity) for how the index should respond to changes in the underlying distribution. We obtain a unique class of functions satisfying all these properties, defined over any n-dimensional Euclidian space: the sum of a decreasing, isoelastic function of individual distances to the capital point of interest, with specific boundaries for the …

Keeping Dictators Honest: The Role Of Population, Quoc-Anh Do, Filipe R. Campante

Research Collection School Of Economics

In order to explain the apparently paradoxical presence of acceptable governance in many non-democratic regimes, economists and political scientists have focused mostly on institutions acting as de facto checks and balances. In this paper, we propose that population plays a similar role in guaranteeing the quality of governance and redistribution. We argue and demonstrate with historical evidence that the concentration of population around the policy making center serves as an insurgency threat to a dictatorship, inducing it to yield to more redistribution and better governance. We bring this centered concept of population concentration to the data through the Centered Index …

How Well Can We Target Aid With Rapidly Collected Data? Empirical Results For Poverty Mapping From Cambodia, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

We compare commune-level poverty rankings in Cambodia based on three different methods: small-area estimation, principal component analysis using aggregate data, and interviews with local leaders. While they provide reasonably consistent rankings, the choice of the ranking method matters. In order to assess the potential losses from moving away from census-based poverty mapping, we used the concentration curve. Our calculation shows that about three-quarters of the potential gains from geographic targeting may be lost by using aggregate data. The usefulness of aggregate data in general would depend on the cost of data collection.

Numerical Analysis Of Non-Constant Pure Rate Of Time Preference: A Model Of Climate Policy, Tomoki Fujii, Larry Karp

Research Collection School Of Economics

When current decisions affect welfare in the far-distant future, as with climate change, the use of a declining pure rate of time preference (PRTP) provides potentially important modeling flexibility. The difficulty of analyzing models with non-constant PRTP limits their application. We describe and provide software (available online) to implement an algorithm to numerically obtain a Markov perfect equilibrium for an optimal control problem with non-constant PRTP. We apply this software to a simplified version of the numerical climate change model used in the Stern Review. For our calibration, the policy recommendations are less sensitive to the PRTP than widely believed. …

Urban Rail Transit Ppps: Survey And Risk Assessment Of Recent Strategies, Sock-Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The proliferation of urban rail transit public-private partnerships (PPPs) in Latin America and Southeast Asia is a recent phenomenon. This paper first reviews the theoretical literature on the public procurement versus PPP decision in the context of rail transit and assesses the risks involved in entering these partnerships. The urban rail transit PPP approaches adopted in Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Hong Kong, and London are described and classified into four broad approaches: (i) the development of new systems through Design-Build-Finance-Operate (DBFO), (ii) the concessioning of rail and subway services, (iii) the sale of state-owned operators …

The Singapore Model Of Housing And The Welfare State, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

While Singapore is not generally regarded as a welfare state, the provision of housing welfare on a large scale has been a defining feature of its welfare system. The extensive housing system has played a useful role in raising savings and homeownership rates as well as contributing to sustained economic growth in general and development of the housing sector in particular. Few would dispute the description of Singapore’s housing policies as 'phenomenally successful' (Ramesh, 2003). Singapore’s economic growth record in the past four decades has brought it from third world to first world status (Lee, 2000), with homeownership widespread at …

Does Governance Matter? Yes, No Or Maybe Some Evidence From Developing Asia, M. G. Quibria

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper seeks to explore the relationship between economic growth and governance performance in Asian developing economies. This exploration yields some interesting conclusions. First, notwithstanding its tremendous economic achievements, the state of governance in Asia is not stellar by international comparison. Indeed, a majority of these countries seem to suffer from a governance deficit. Second, contrary to our expectation, data do not suggest any strong positive link between governance and growth: paradoxically, countries that exhibit surpluses in governance on average grew much slower than those with deficits. The paper ends with some conjecture about this apparent paradox.

Predicting A Currency Crisis Alternative Approaches And Applications To The Philippines, Fernando Antonio Iv Castillo

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

An arrival of a currency crisis can be anticipated through a comprehensive and properly specified Early Warning System (“EWS”). The costs that entail with experiencing a currency crisis far exceed the costs of spending a considerable amount of time to developing an EWS. In a report done by the IMF(1998), they estimated that emerging economies suffer an 8% cumulative loss in real output during a severe currency crisis. Likewise, evidence suggests that a simple look at traditional market indicators of currency and default risks will not provide much advance warning of an impending currency crisis. In a study done by …

External Debt And Growth Dynamics, Si Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Based on an extended growth model, this thesis further explores the joint dynamics between external debt and growth. The model explicitly expresses this growth dynamic mechanism incorporating external debt as an important explanatory variable with risk premium and other related structural factors. The interactions between external debt and growth are interpreted as directly and mainly through the channel of capital accumulation and indirectly through technology change. These constitute the functional form foundation to solve the main concern on the effect of external debt upon growth adjustment path. The numerical simulations of the model indicate that when external debt is assumed …

Report Of The Committee On Fare Review Mechanism, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Today, public transport fares are reviewed annually and adjustments, if any, are capped by the “CPI + X” formula, where CPI is the change in the Consumer Price Index over the previous year and X accounts for the net effect of wage changes after deducting productivity gains. For the period from 2001 to 2005, X was determined to be 1.5%. While this mechanism has worked well in keeping public transport fares affordable, the formula lacks transparency and is not easily understood by the general public. Commuters often question the need for the “X” element given that the public transport operators …

The Structuralist Perspective On Real Exchange Rate, Share Price Level And Employment Path: What Role Is Left For Money?, Edmund S. Phelps, Hian Teck Hoon, Gylfi Zoega

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

The Creation And Economic Regulation Of Housing Markets: A Comparison Of The Experiences Of Singapore And Korea, Sock-Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Privatization, creation of markets and economic regulation are terms that few would immediately associate with the housing sector. Mainstream housing markets in most of the free market economies of the developed world are regarded as competitive markets, with little need for economic regulation of the market. Regulations that attempt to control behavior directly are generally limited to policies relating to rent control, the provision of rental housing or rental allowances for lower income groups, as well as land use regulations and building controls.

The housing sectors of Singapore and Korea are highly unusual in the extent of government involvement and …

Road Congestion Pricing In Singapore: 1975-2003, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh

Research Collection School Of Economics

Facing traffic congestion in the Central Business District and enormous demands on scarce land resources by the growing number of motor vehicles, Singapore, a small island city-state the size of Seattle, embarked on a bold decision to reduce road congestion by implementing the famous Area Licensing Scheme in 1975. This was a manual system of tolls for multiple entries into the Restricted Zone. While achieving the intended effect of cutting down on the volume of vehicular traffic in the Restricted Zone, the authors (and others) found that the problem of congestion had merely shifted in time and place. Many changes …

The Structuralist Perspective On Real Exchange Rate, Share Price Level And Employment Path: What Room Is Left For Money?, Edmund S. Phelps, Hian Teck Hoon, Gylfi Zoega

Research Collection School Of Economics

The current sluggish performance of the US economy follows one of the more remarkable booms in modern history. The late 1990s was a period of simultaneous output and productivity growth,1 low unemployment and stable inflation, culminating in an unemployment rate of only 3.9% in the fourth quarter of the year 2000. The absence of rising inflation during this period came as a surprise to many since the level of the natural rate of unemployment was commonly estimated to be in the range of 5-6% by the mid 1990s. The non-inflationary boom, however, reminds one of another episode where non-monetary forces …

The Role Of United Charities In Fundraising: The Case Of Singapore, Vincent Chua, Chung Ming Wong

Research Collection School Of Economics

Theory suggests that a united charity helps to economize on fundraising costs by reducing competition for donations among member charities. However, donors often cannot control the allocation of their donations, and charities may dislike the monitoring of their activities. This paper examines these and other issues relating to the Community Chest of Singapore. The results, based on analysis of financial positions and fundraising costs of a large number of charities, suggest that the Community Chest does possess important fundraising advantages. Thus charities in financial difficulties or in need of funds for additional programs tend to seek membership. However, organizations that …

The Impact Of Housing Prices On Aggregate Consumption: Evidence From An East Asian City-State, Sock-Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using aggregate consumption data for Singapore, this paper rejects the life-cycle/permanent income and myopia hypotheses as explanations for aggregate consumption behavior. We confirm the presence of liquidity constraints from the asymmetric reaction of consumption to income increases vis-a-vis income declines. When we allow for asymmetric response, anticipated house price increases appear to have a dampening effect on aggregate consumption while declines in expected house price growth also had a negative effect on consumption, although the results are statistically insignificant. There is no evidence that the housing price increases have produced either wealth or collateral enhancement effects on consumption.

Strategic Development Of Airport And Rail Infrastructure: The Case Of Singapore, Sock-Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article recounts how a number of strategic infrastructure investment decisions in airport and rail development taken by the Singapore government were at variance with recommendations emerging from Cost-Benefit Analysis, but were considered necessary to support external competitiveness. This link between infrastructure provision and economic development may require decision makers to assess the trade-off between prudent macro-economic planning and efficient micro-economic management for major projects. In the case of airport hubs, the most difficult assessment might be the game consideration of how much, and how far ahead, excess capacity is needed to ensure the dominance of the hub.

Housing Policy, Wealth Formation And The Singapore Economy, Sock-Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper evaluates the contribution of housing policy in Singapore to financial sector development, housing wealth formation and macro-economic performance, both retrospectively and prospectively. It provides an overview of past housing policies and traces the linkages to the financial sector. Housing policy as effected through the Housing and Development Board and the Central Provident Fund (CPF) hampered the development of the commercial housing loans sector and domestic financial markets, but contributed to the overall growth and stability of the housing loans market and associated financial institutions. Housing policy and the trend of housing asset inflation contributed significantly to the formation …

Motor Vehicle Taxes As An Environmental Management Instrument: The Case Of Singapore, Ngee-Choon Chia, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Being geographically small, land scarcity poses a potential constraint for economic growth in Singapore. Restraining car ownership and car use through motor vehicle taxes is part of the land-transport policy to ensure smoother traffic flow. This paper analyses the use of motor vehicle taxes in Singapore as an environmental management instrument. It evaluates the effectiveness of ownership and use taxes as instruments to internalise congestion and environment externality. Economic issues relating to the use of such taxes are also highlighted. It concludes that motor vehicle taxes offer Singapore a double dividend.

Assessing Export Platforms: The Case Of Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

The aim of this paper is to try to understand how Singapore was generally successful in its export promoting strategy. Historically, Singapore experimented with an import-substituting strategy in the first half of the sixties in anticipation of forming a common market with Malaysia and also briefly after its independence in 1965. The level of protection, however, was relatively low during its import-substituting phase.

Hong Kong And Singapore, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

There are many similarities between Hong Kong and Singapore. They have both enjoyed high rates of economic growth over the past three decades, averaging six percent a year in real terms. The two have become known as “East Asian Tigers,” having made the transition from poverty to newly industrialized economies in a relatively short time. Both started off as British colonies, with British legal and administrative systems, and made their living as trading ports serving their respective regions. Singapore has been an independent republic since 1965; Hong Kong was returned to China on July 1, 1997. While Hong Kong and …

Productivity Growth And Public Sector Employment, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

Our model endogenizes the share of public sector employment in a neoclassical growth model. Under the assumptions that public sector production is labor intensive and the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is less than one, the public share of employment is shown to decline with a rise in capital per effective worker. Our theory predicts that periods of high productivity growth are associated with a rising trend of the public share of employment. This prediction conforms well with U.S. experience from 1950–1995.

Productivity Growth And Public Sector Employment, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

Our model endogenizes the share of public sector employment in a neoclassical growth model. Under the assumptions that public sector production is labor intensive and the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is less than one, the public share of employment is shown to decline with a rise in capital per effective worker. Our theory predicts that periods of high productivity growth are associated with a rising trend of the public share of employment. This prediction conforms well with U.S. experience from 1950-1995.

Curbing Urban Traffic Congestion In Singapore: A Comprehensive Review, Rex S. Toh, Sock-Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

One of the most pervasive and frustrating of modern transportation problems is urban traffic congestion. Since 1975, Singapore has introduced a relentless series of traditional and experimental measures to slow down the growth of the motor vehicle population and to control its usage. While some of the measures have been somewhat successful, some of the problems were shifted or were substituted. The Area Licensing Scheme led to a shifting of the problem in time and place while the quota system has substituted uncertainty in quantity with uncertainty in price. Furthermore, the Preferential Additional Registration Fee system and the Quota System …

From Manual To Electronic Road Congestion Pricing: The Singapore Experience And Experiment, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study reviews the efforts of Singapore to curb road congestion through restraints on motor vehicle ownership as well as user fees. In particular, it traces the history of the famous Area Licensing Scheme (ALS), and then discusses its shortcomings, also the need for Electronic Road Pricing (ERP), its advantages and disadvantages and the technology involved in this state of the art system. This paper identifies important research questions to be addressed in connection with the first full-scale adoption of ERP.

Singapore's Experience With Car Quotas: Issues And Policy Processes, Sock-Yong Phang, Wing-Keung Wong, Ngee-Choon Chia

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the policy processes behind Singapore's car quotas. The policy, when filtered through the market mechanism, had a number of unintended consequences. The public's unhappiness with certain features and [`]loopholes' of the system resulted in many changes to the rules. The effects of recent measures to curb speculation on quota premiums are evaluated. Problems with Singapore's Weekend Car Scheme are also discussed. The lesson for transport policy makers elsewhere is that in attempting to deal with the road congestion problem through car ownership policies, an asset market for vehicles should be taken into account.

An Evaluation Of Car-Ownership And Car-Usage Policies In Singapore, Sock-Yong Phang, Anthony Chin

Research Collection School Of Economics

Report presented to Parliament 2 January 1990 as part of Select Committee on Land Transportation Policy. Covers the transportation policies of Singapore from 1960s to 1980s. Analysis of car ownership policies, including PARF. Analysis of car usage policies.

Welfare Implications Of Hdb Policy On The Public Housing Price Gradient, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In Singapore, extensive government intervention in the housing market has resulted in much deviation from assumptions made in the simple neoclassical urban models. The monocentric model of urban structure is extended to incorporate a subsidized public housing market in which the government-determined price gradient is flatter than the private housing price gradients. The propositionthat the utility of public housing households varies inversely with residential location distance from the CBD is empirically tested by estimating net returns to public housing using resale market data. It was found that net returns decreased with distance from the CBD.

Intertemporal Extraction Of Mineral Resources Under Variable Rate Taxes, Robert F. Conrad, Bryce Hool

Research Collection School Of Economics

Variable-rate taxes are being applied with increasing frequency in the US and other countries. However, their effects typically go beyond those that have motivated their use. The formulation of mineral tax policy should take into account the complete list of consequences.-from Authors