Other Economics Commons^™

From Personal To Personalized Goals: How Goal Nudges Improve Production, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres, Brice Corgnet, Roberto Hernán González

ESI Working Papers

We study how workers’ non-binding self-set goals affect their production and whether goal nudges (ability-calibrated goal hints) make goal setting more effective. In a real-effort task, participants first complete an ability pretest and are then assigned to one of three treatments: a no-goal baseline, a personal goal treatment with no external hint, or a personalized goal nudge that participants may accept or modify. We document a positive link between goals and production. However, merely asking workers to set goals is ineffective: when left unguided, workers anchor on conservative goals well below those induced by goal nudges, leading to underperformance. In …

Generosity After Negative Random Shocks, Hernán Bejarano, Joris Gillet, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara

ESI Working Papers

We report the results of three preregistered experiments examining the effects of negative random endowment shocks on generosity. Using a dictator game, we show that generosity is greater towards those who experience a negative random shock, and this effect is larger than the effect inequality has on giving. Our data provide evidence that people do not expect this additional level of generosity after a shock and that injunctive norms cannot explain it either. Taken together, our findings suggest that the (high) level of generosity observed after negative random shocks is unexpected and exceeds what people consider to be socially appropriate. …

Identity-Dependent Externalities Can Mitigate Overbidding In Tullock Contests: Theory And Evidence, Dan Kovenock, Jian Song, Francesco Trevisan

ESI Working Papers

We investigate how identity-dependent externalities infuence bidding behavior in Tullock lottery contests. While experimental studies of standard contests, in which losers are indiferent to the winner’s identity, consistently document overbidding, the role of identity-dependent preferences remains less explored. We address this gap by frst showing that the class of three-player Tullock lottery contests with identity-dependent externalities considered here can be mapped into a standard Tullock lottery contest with appropriately chosen prize valuations and endowments, yielding identical Nash equilibrium predictions. We then use this mapping to design a laboratory experiment that directly compares the two “equilibrium-equivalent” contest formats. In our three-player …

Second-Layer Money Or Fiduciary Media? A Full-Reserve Critique Of Bitcoin Price Stabilization: A Comment On Blasco And García De Enterría, Philipp Bagus, Joel Serrano

Journal of New Finance

This article critically examines Blasco and García de Enterría’s proposal that certain Bitcoin-denominated second-layer instruments—real bills, private scrip, and cash notes—could reduce Bitcoin’s short-term volatility and function as media of exchange. From a full-reserve Austrian perspective, it argues that the relevant distinction is not between base money and higher layers as such, but, within those layers, between fully backed monetary certificates and fiduciary media. Although second-layer instruments may smooth short-term volatility, those that operate as fiduciary media introduce counterparty risk, redemption risk, and credit expansion unsupported by real saving, potentially generating long-term instability.

Conflict-Mediated Group Size Regulation: A Theory Of Supraoptimal And Suboptimal Group Size, Eric Schniter

ESI Working Papers

Observed group sizes rarely match the size that would maximize what each member gets from belonging. We propose a two-part theory in which group size is regulated by two related conflicts: insider-outsider conflict over admission, and within-group conflict as crowding, competition, and social tensions intensify with size. Three strategies are available: admission, exclusion, and fission. The first part shows that even when exclusion is unavailable, fission dynamics alone drive group size away from the optimum in both directions, with the pattern set by how prospective joiners encounter groups and by the geometry of fission. When joiners compare groups across a …

[Review Of] The Divine Economy: How Religions Compete For Wealth, Power And People, Steven Pfaff

Sociology Faculty Articles and Research

A review of Paul Seabright's The Divine Economy: How Religions Compete for Wealth, Power, and People.

The Dictatorial Public Goods Game, Gabriele Camera, Gary Charness, Nir Chemeya, Ro'i Zultan

ESI Working Papers

We propose a novel game, the Dictatorial Public Goods Game, to study the interplay between collective resource generation and centralized provision of public goods. After making choices in a standard Voluntary Contribution Mechanism (VCM), one player is selected from the group to administrate the contributions: either provide the public good or expropriate the collected resources for personal gain. We find that adding this centralized mechanism reduces efficiency compared to the standard VCM. Although higher contributions increase the material incentive to expropriate, they lead to more provision. Thus, pro-social choices in the contribution and in the provision stages act as …

More Than The Sum Of Its Sexes: Functional Constraints, Embodied Capital, And Age-Structured Labor In Human Forager Economies, Eric Schniter, Hillard Kaplan, Brenda Bowser, Cari Goetz

ESI Publications

"The paper's rough consensus attributes the SDoL to differential variance in food returns across male- and female-typical foraging domains, sourcing this primarily to Bird and Codding (2015) and Kelly's (2013) reframe of the classic 'hunting vs. gathering' axis as 'risky vs. non-risky foraging.' Indeed, the data show that males more often pursue large game and honey, resources that yield higher caloric returns but with high unpredictability, injury risk, and failure rates. Females, especially those with dependent young, more often target plant foods and small game that produce steadier, lower-variance returns. But variance-buffering is a proximate ecological account, not a life …

Centralization Vs. Decentralization: First Evidence From The Laboratory, Gabriele Camera, Gary Charness, Nir Chemaya

ESI Working Papers

The future architecture of financial systems is a subject of contention, with centralized and decentralized governance proponents. Here we ask: would the architecture affect the quality of decision-making? We propose a game where financial network participants demarcate the ownership of claims to income. This governance task can be decentralized (shared authority), centralized (single authority), or hybrid (alternating authority). Without communication all architectures supported poor outcomes. With communication, decentralization ensured good governance and maximum profits, while centralization did not—lowering communication’s potency in promoting socially optimal decisions. This indicates there is scope for decentralization in innovating financial institutions.

Segmentation And Morphometry Of Intracranial Internal Carotid Artery Calcification In Relation To Brain Atrophy, Xiao Xu, Nikhil N. Chaudhari, Phoebe E. Imms, Nahian F. Chowdhury, Fangyun C. Liu, Jorge A. Solis Galvan, Bavrina Bigjahan, Grant Schleifer, Maria Ashna, Blake Hannagan, Giuseppe Barisano, Daniel K. Cummings, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Paul L. Hooper, Edmond Seabright, Randall C. Thompson, Benjamin C. Trumble, Michael D. Gurven, Jonathan Stieglitz, Caleb E. Finch, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Helena C. Chui, Margaret Gatz, Wendy J. Mack, Hillard Kaplan, Andrei Irimia

ESI Publications

Purpose

Intracranial internal carotid artery calcification (iICAC) is a form of intracranial arteriosclerosis and is associated with an elevated risk of stroke and dementia. However, iICAC’s relationship with brain atrophy remains poorly understood. We aimed to automatically quantify iICAC morphometric characteristics and evaluate their associations with regional brain volumes (BVs).

Methods

We developed an automated approach to compute iICAC surface area and thickness from CT brain scans in a sample of physically active South American subsistence farmers (n = 1,232, age range: 40 years to 92 years, 48.1% female, 794 Tsimane and 438 Moseten). Linear regression models were used …

On The Origins Of Modern East Asia: Knowledge And The Economic Transformation Of Japan And China In The Late 19th Century, Debin Ma, Jared Rubin, Weiwen Yin

ESI Working Papers

This paper revisits the old thesis of the contrasting paths of modernization between Japan and China. It develops a new analytical framework regarding the role of knowledge acquisition (propositional vs. prescriptive) and political centralization as the key drivers behind these contrasting paths. Our model and historical data highlight how the introduction of these elements contributed to Meiji Japan’s decisive turn towards the West and Qing China’s lethargic response to Western imperialism. Our analytical framework, developed from a comparative historical narrative and quantitative data, sheds new light on the importance of knowledge acquisition in enabling developing countries to reach the world’s …

Markets, Agency, And Trust: Ai Agents And The Knowledge Problem, Brennan Mcdavid, Lynne Kiesling, David Chassin

Philosophy Faculty Articles and Research

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming market participation, raising key epistemological questions: Do AI agents enhance or diminish the aggregation of local, private, and tacit knowledge Hayek saw as essential to market processes? How does trust in both markets and AI shape willingness to engage in AI-mediated exchange? This paper examines these issues through market epistemology, agency relationships, and trust epistemology, analyzing how agentic AI reshapes the knowledge problem and principal-agent dynamics. Applying this framework to transactive energy markets, we show that AI shifts decision-making from human cognition to algorithmic processes that require user trust despite epistemic opacity, although it is …

The Poverty Of Algebra, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Anwar Shaikh. (n.d.). The poverty of algebra: Critical notes on neo-Ricardian economics (Unpublished manuscript). Department of Economics, The New School for Social Research, New York, NY.

Stated Preferences For Public Provision Of Services: Experimental Evidence From Latin America, Hernán Bejarano, Matias Busso, Juan Francisco Santos

ESI Working Papers

We study how individuals in six Latin American countries value public versus private provision of education and healthcare using a survey experiment. Respondents were randomly assigned to vignettes that vary income, service quality, and provider type. Reported service quality is the main driver of choices: the probability of selecting a private provider roughly doubles when reported quality of the public option falls from 80 to 20 percent, while income has a smaller effect. Higher institutional trust lowers the likelihood of switching to private providers but does not affect willingness to pay once individuals choose private provision.

Existence Of Equilibrium Mechanisms In Generalized Principal-Agent Problems With Interacting Teams, Brian Roberson

ESI Working Papers

We study incentive design when multiple principals simultaneously design mechanisms for their respective teams in environments with strategic spillovers. In this environment, each principal’s set of incentive-compatible mechanisms—those that satisfy their own agents’ incentive compatibility constraints— depends on the mechanisms offered by the other teams. Following a classic example by Myerson (1982), such games may lack equilibrium due to discontinuities in the correspondence of incentive-compatible mechanisms. We establish general conditions for equilibrium existence by introducing a novel approach that involves tracking both the outcome distributions along the truthful-obedient path and the sets of outcome distributions achievable through unilateral deviations, thereby …

Authoritarianism And Conspiracism Around The World, Valerie Capraro, Folca Panizza, Joseph A. Vitriol, Mikey Biddlestone, Andrè Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Alberto López Ortega, Ana Ebert, Max Wan, Praveen Kujal, Karen M. Douglas, Christopher M. Federico, Jolanda Jetten, Sander Van Der Linden, Flávio Azevedo

ESI Working Papers

Authoritarian leaders frequently deploy conspiracy narratives to justify power concentration and delegitimize opponents, yet the link between authoritarianism and conspiracism remains underresearched. Integrating data across six studies from multiple international surveys (N=63,403; 20 countries), expert-coded party systems (71 countries; 14 datasets), and longitudinal panel studies, we demonstrate that individuals with stronger authoritarian orientations are consistently more prone to conspiracism across diverse cultures, political contexts, and time. These results remain robust when controlling for populist attitudes and multiple political, psychological, and demographic variables. The link between authoritarianism and conspiracism appears to constitute a durable and generalizable psychological relationship. This may help …

High Prevalence Of Cerebrovascular Calcifications And Clinical Correlates In Indigenous Bolivian Forager‐Horticulturalists: A Population‐Based Observational Study, Giuseppe Barisano, Bavrina Bigjahan, Grant Schleifer, Maria Ashna, Wendy J. Mack, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Helena C. Chui, Meng Law, Thomas J. Fischbach, Andrei Irimia, Nikhil N. Chaudhari, Daniel K. Cummings, Paul L. Hooper, Jacob E. Aronoff, Ellen E. Walters, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Raul Quispe Gutierrez, Jesus Bani Cuata, Kenneth Buetow, Caleb E. Finch, Michael D. Gurven, Jonathan Stieglitz, Gregory S. Thomas, Randall C. Thompson, Benjamin Trumble, Hillard Kaplan, Margaret Gatz

ESI Publications

Background

Methods

For Whom Do Labels Work? Heterogeneous Effects Of Popularity And Environmental Information In Coffee Choice, Dede Long, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres, Hongxing Liu

ESI Publications

We examine the impact of two common food labels on consumers’ choices: environmental certification and popularity cues. In a randomized experiment, participants chose between two similar coffee products, with treatments varying the presence of environmental and/or popularity information. We also collected measures of conformity preferences, environmental concern, political identity, and demographics. At the aggregate level, the environmental and combined labels significantly increased the selection of the target coffee, whereas popularity information alone had no effect. These averages conceal substantial heterogeneity: high-conformity participants responded to all labels, especially popularity cues, while those with domain-specific environmental concerns responded only to environmental and …

The Economics Of The U.S. Student Loan Market And The Case For The Education Development Financial Institution, Ian Akers

CMC Senior Theses

The United States student loan market is shaped by a variety of market failures–credit constraints, positive externalities, behavioral frictions including myopia, debt aversion, and misperception–that together justify government intervention in the market. Yet the design of federal intervention is just as important as its existence. This thesis details the economic theory underpinning the market for student loans, evaluates three historical federal student loan programs (the Perkins Loan Program, the Federal Family Education Loan Program, and the Federal Direct Loan Program) through the lens of that theory. The thesis then proposes a novel institutional model as a targeted response to the …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

Oxytocin Varies Across The Life Course In A Sex-Specific Way In A Human Subsistence Population, Abigail E. Colby, Dominik C. Jud, Valerie Baettig, Jordan S. Martin, Camila Scaff, Michael D. Gurven, Benjamin C. Trumble, Bret A. Beheim, Paul L. Hooper, Daniel K. Cummings, Hillard Kaplan, Jonathan Stieglitz, Arnulfo Cary Ista, Adrian V. Jaeggi

ESI Publications

Oxytocin, a hormone linked to reproduction and health, may mediate life-history trade-offs across the human life course. Yet, how oxytocin naturally varies with age remains poorly understood. Here, working with the Tsimane, forager-horticulturalists of lowland Bolivia, we collected the largest sample of oxytocin measurements to date (n = 1,242 samples, n = 405 individuals, age = 2 to 84 y, 51% female), and i) examined how oxytocin varies throughout the life course in females and males, and ii) investigated potential drivers of age- and sex-specific variation. Our sample provides rare insight into the relationship between oxytocin and age in a …

Contests With Ambiguous Prizes, Cary Deck, Aidan Hathaway, Emma Kate Henry, Tigran Melkonyan, Samuel Redinger

ESI Working Papers

This paper examines behavior in contests where the prize value is ambiguous. We develop a theoretical model of bidding in a Tullock contest with an ambiguous prize where contestants account for the ambiguity attitude of their rival. Ambiguity affects optimal behavior via two countervailing channels - a direct effect arising from contestants’ ambiguity about the value of the prize and an indirect effect corresponding to the effect of ambiguity on the opponent’s behavior. Using a controlled laboratory experiment, we elicit individual risk and ambiguity attitudes and compare predicted and observed behavior in contests with an ambiguous prize, a risky prize …

Strategic Interactions And Gender Cues: Evidence From Social Preference Games, Hernán Bejarano, Matias Busso, Juan Francisco Santos

ESI Working Papers

This paper studies trust, reciprocity, and bargaining using a large-scale online experiment conducted in six Latin American countries. Participants played trust and ultimatum games under randomly assigned conditions in which the gender of their counterpart was either disclosed or withheld. On average, disclosing counterpart gender does not yield statistically detectable effects in either game. However, statistically significant differences emerge by participants' own gender: on average men exhibit higher levels of trust, reciprocity, and generosity in bargaining than women. When disaggregating by participant-counterpart gender pairings, point estimates differ in sign across groups but are generally imprecisely estimated, and differences between interacting …

Investigating The Relationship Between Noun Classes And Plant Folk Taxonomy In Chasu Language Of Kilimanjaro Region In Tanzania, Peter Rabson Mziray

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

The current study investigates the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu (G 22). The study focuses on two objectives: the first objective is to describe the plant folk taxonomy in Chasu and the second objective is to determine the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu. Data were collected from rural villages in Same and Mwanga districts by using free listing, field interviews (jungle-walk-and-identify), and written texts containing Chasu plant names. The findings reveal that Chasu folk taxonomy reflects different ethnobotanical categories; including a unique beginner which is mmea/mimea ‘plant(s)’, and three life …

Dictators And Lying Dictators: An Experimental Investigation Of Preference Based-Group Biases In Chinese And American Interactions, Aaron S. Berman, Saika Cer Askin, Shapeng Jiang, David Porter, Jason Shachat

ESI Working Papers

This study examines preference-based behavioral biases in social interactions between two distinct communities: students from Chapman University in the United States and Wuhan University in China. Using controlled experiments, participants interacted within or across communities in Dictator games. Two versions of the Dictator game were used: one where decisions were observable by both the experimenter and the recipient, and another where allocators could misreport outcomes with plausible deniability. Results revealed unexpected patterns, including similar allocation distributions across communities in the transparent task, and differing behaviors in the misreporting task, with Chapman allocators being more generous to out-group members and Wuhan …

Poking Holes And Adding Points In Dictator Games, James C. Cox, Cary Deck, Laura Razzolini, Vjollca Sadiraj

ESI Working Papers

Deviations from choices predicted by self-regarding preferences have regularly been observed in standard dictator games. Such behavior is not inconsistent with conventional preference theory or revealed preference theory, which accommodate other-regarding preferences. By contrast, experiments in which giving nothing is not the least generous feasible act produce data that is inconsistent with conventional preference theory including social preference models and suggest the possible relevance of reference point models. Two such models are the reference-dependent theory of riskless choice with loss aversion and choice monotonicity in moral reference points. Our experiment includes novel treatments designed to challenge both theoretical models of …

Final Offer Arbitration With Asymmetric Evidence, Yongjoon Kim, Afia Promi, Jiatong Xue, Cary Deck

ESI Working Papers

As disputants increasingly rely upon arbitration it is critical to understand outcomes that are likely to arise from mechanisms like final offer arbitration. While a sizable experimental literature investigating strategic behavior in final offer arbitration exists, that work has overwhelmingly focused on situations where the arbitrator’s beliefs about the appropriate resolution are symmetric and uninfluenced by the disputants’ cases. This paper considers a setting where the arbitrator’s beliefs depend on the strength of each disputant’s case. We find disputant responses to changes in the relative strength of their case generally follow comparative statics predictions. Further, we find that final offers …

Object Play In Tsimane Children: Implications For Sex-Specific Division Of Labour, Ava Moser, Michael D. Gurven, Hillard Kaplan, Benjamin C. Trumble, Jonathan Stieglitz, Paul Hooper, Daniel Cummings, Adrian Jaeggi, Kathelijne Koops

ESI Publications

Sex-specific division of labour and the associated use of different subsistence techniques by males (e.g. hunting) and females (e.g. gathering) has played an important role in shaping human societies. Skills needed in adulthood are practiced in play during childhood and object play has been proposed to foster tool-use skills necessary for adult subsistence techniques. Here, we investigated sex differences in the ontogeny of object play in Tsimane children in Bolivia to understand its potential role in shaping gender-specific adult roles. We used observational data (>80,000 scan samples) from nine Tsimane communities collected between 2002 and 2007. We analysed age …

Coordination In Time, Lars Boerner, Erik O. Kimbrough, Mouli Modak

ESI Working Papers

We study how well people are able to solve pure coordination problems in continuous time. Subjects decide whether and when to pay a cost to go to market with their goods and earn money only if another person shows up at the same time. We show that coordination failure is common in a baseline, and we introduce treatments that feature public coordination devices (meant to mimic clocks) and assess the extent to which coordination improves when such devices are provided via different institutions. A publicly provided device outperforms a variety of privately provided alternatives. Our evidence suggests this is because …

Minimum Resale Price Maintenance In The Absence Of Point-Of-Sale Service, Agency Or Free-Rider Problems, Michael R. Baye, Dan Kovenock, Casper De Vries

ESI Working Papers

We show that MRPM can increase manufacturer profits and total output even in the ab- sence of traditional justifications based on point-of-sale services, retailer effort, or free-riding. The key insight is that MRPM mitigates channel conflict by altering how retailers balance extracting surplus from loyal customers and competing for price-sensitive shoppers. When a manufacturer optimally chooses a wholesale price and MRPM policy, this can intensify com- petition and create systematic distributional effects: prices fall for loyal consumers but rise for shoppers, and the profits of smaller, shopper-dependent retailers decline. We characterize the conditions under which MRPM raises output, benefits a …