Other Economics Commons^™

Building Reputation: State-Sponsored Rebellions And Transnational Identities, Marion Mercier, Arthur Silve, Benjamin Tremblay-Auger

ESI Working Papers

States sometimes back rebellions abroad to signal resolve. We study this reputation-building logic in international relations, focusing on co-ethnic links between countries as an objective source of variation in a state’s incentives to demonstrate resolve. We formally derive two interconnected predictions from the mechanism: (a) a state is more likely to endorse the uprising of a foreign group when facing a larger audience, resulting in (b) greater political inclusion for the group. We build a comprehensive panel dataset of co-ethnic rebellion sponsorship, and find evidence consistent with both predictions.

Tokenization And Interconnectedness: A Numerical Exploration, Alessandro Gioffré, Gabriele Camera

ESI Working Papers

Tokenization of assets has multiple implications for the operation of financial markets, among which are mitigating trade frictions and improving the interconnectedness of financial firms. This feature—if not properly managed—can propagate shocks more widely as compared to a traditional system. We study this double-edged aspect of tokenization using a matching model that makes explicit how firms are exposed to counterparty risk. We propose a way to manage this increased risk, through Financial Transactions Limiters, which exploit the technical advantages of tokenization in monitoring financial transactions of individual firms. We numerically analyze the possible social welfare consequences of tokenization, in …

What Kind Of Economists Do We Want? From A One-Track To A Two-Track Mind, Magnus Henrekson, Lars Jonung, Mats Lundahl

Economic and Business Review

We explore the challenges facing the current academic training of economists in small European countries such as Sweden. The monolithic focus on publishing in the top-five journals, which prioritizes methodological rigor over problem-driven research, is often a threat to social relevance and policy applicability. This limits pluralism, excludes many talented economists, and fails to prepare graduates for nonacademic positions. We propose a two-track model for PhD training and academic evaluation, emphasizing both traditional research and applied economic policy, tailored to the diverse needs of academia, public administration, and business. We also argue for broader evaluation criteria, enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration, and …

Multidimensional Arbitration, Cary Deck, Paul Pecorino, Brian R. Powers

ESI Working Papers

Most analyses of arbitration consider disputes over a single dimensional issue; however, in many situations more than one issue can be in dispute. In a labor context, the parties may disagree on the hourly wage, number of paid holidays, and fringe benefits as well as other conditions of employment. In addition to conventional arbitration (CA), two variants of multidimensional final-offer arbitration (FOA) are employed in practice. Under one version of FOA, the arbitrator must pick the entire package submitted by one of the disputants. Under the other version of FOA, the arbitrator can select elements from each disputant’s final offer …

The Discouraging Effect Of Overconfidence, Cary Deck, Klajdi Bregu

ESI Publications

Overconfidence is often viewed as encouraging entrepreneurs and CEOs to follow risky strategies such as entering new markets, engaging in innovation, or pursuing mergers and acquisitions. While such undertakings can generate excess returns and profits, overconfidence is frequently offered as an explanation for why so many business ventures fail. However, we show that in a setting where the decision maker does not know whether success is possible, theoretically, overconfidence can also have a discouraging effect, causing one to give up too soon. This counterintuitive result is driven by effectively misattributing one's own failure to an elevated assessment of the chance …

Ectopic Adipose Tissue In Subsistence Populations With Minimal Coronary Disease, Large Left Atria, And Very Low Rates Of Atrial Fibrillation, Randall C. Thompson, Benjamin C. Trumble, Daniel K. Cummings, Angela D. Neunuebel, Paul L. Hooper, Samuel Wann, Adel H. Allam, Frances Neunuebel, Benjamin D. Gans, Samantha I. King, Edmond Seabright, Caleb E. Finch, Margaret Gatz, Kenneth Buetow, Michael I. Miyamoto, Guido P. Lombardi, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Christopher J. Ward, Madeleine J. Lee, Ashna Mahadev, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, David E. Michalik, Chris J. Rowan, Tianyu Cao, Jonathan Stieglitz, Cameron M. Quick, Gregory S. Thomas, Jagat Narula, Damini Dey, Michael Gurven, Hillard Kaplan

ESI Publications

Background

Methods

Criminal Behavior Responses To Changing Penalties: Estimating The Impact Of Felony Theft Threshold Changes, Ezra R. Simmons

All Theses

This study estimates how criminal behavior changes in response to shifts in felony theft thresholds, contributing to broader evidence on the deterrent effects of criminal penalties. Using detailed incident-level crime reports, this study applies econometric techniques to evaluate how offenders responded to reduced penalties. Analyzed within is California’s Proposition 47, which raised the felony threshold for theft-related offenses from $450 to $950. The results show a significant increase in low-level shoplifting (approximately 21%) and more substantial rises (approximately 24% to 30%) in crimes within the threshold overlap ($450 to $950). Additionally, the value stolen in crimes below the $450 threshold …

My Performance Over Yours: Earned Entitlement, Performance, Luck, And Deservingness In Giving, Andrej Angelovski, Praveen Kujal, Jose M. Ortiz

ESI Working Papers

We study how three widely discussed cues—source of income (merit vs luck), own performance, and information about others’ work status and performance—shape redistribution. Prior to the dictator game, all 306 dictators and most of the 306 recipients complete the same real-effort matrix task in an online experiment that would yield either $4 or $1 for the dictators. In the Performance treatment the dictator’s payoff is based on their performance; in Luck, it is assigned by a 50-50 draw. We find that: (i) Earned entitlement is prevalent for high-performing dictators: they keep more for themselves; (ii) Earned entitlement is conditional …

Indirect Genetic Effects Among Neighbors Promote Cooperation And Accelerate Adaptation In A Small-Scale Human Society, Jordan S. Martin, Bret Beheim, Michael Gurven, Hillard Kaplan, Jonathan Stieglitz, Benjamin C. Trumble, Paul Hooper, Daniel K. Cummings, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Adrian V. Jaeggi

ESI Publications

Explaining the rapid evolution of human cooperation and its role in our species’ biodemographic success remains a major evolutionary puzzle. To address this challenge, we tested a social drive hypothesis, which predicts that social plasticity and social selection in human groups cause indirect genetic effects that accelerate the adaptation of fitness, promoting population growth via feedback between the environmental causes and evolutionary consequences of cooperation. Using Bayesian multilevel models to analyze fertility data from a small-scale society, we demonstrate that density- and frequency-dependent indirect genetic effects on fitness promote the evolution of cooperation among neighboring women, increasing the rate of …

Physical Activity Mediates Age Differences In Cognition Among Tsimane Forager-Horticulturalists, Phoebe E. Imms, Nikhil N. Chaudhari, Daniel Cummings, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Giuseppe Barisano, Paul L. Hooper, M. Katherine Sayre, Edmond Seabright, Randall C. Thompson, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Benjamin C. Trumble, Michael Gurven, Jonathan Stieglitz, Caleb E. Finch, Hillard S. Kaplan, Wendy J. Mack, Margaret Gatz, Andrei Irimia

ESI Publications

Background: The Tsimane and Moseten of the Bolivian Amazon are highly physically active and exhibit low rates of cognitive impairment and brain atrophy.

Methods: We use structural equation modelling to examine how their physical activity levels mediate the relationship between (1) age and cognition, and (2) age and cognition via brain volume (BV).

Results: Tsimane males (n = 305, mean ± SD age = 59.94 ± 9.68) and Tsimane females (n = 265, mean ± SD age = 59.28 ± 9.79) exhibit significantly higher levels of physical activity than Moseten males (n = 106, mean ± SD …

Higher Blood Lipid Levels After The Transition To Menopause In Two Forager-Horticulturalist Populations, M. J. Getz, J. E. Aronoff, C. L. Jenkins, S. Ghafoor, J. Vazquez, N. T. Appel, M. Gatz, Daniel K. Cummings, Paul L. Hooper, B. Beheim, K. H. Buetow, C. E. Finch, G. S. Thomas, J. Stieglitz, M. Gurven, Hillard Kaplan, B. C. Trumble

ESI Publications

Background: Reproduction affects health and longevity among females across the life course. While significant focus has been devoted to the role of menarche, menopause remains understudied. Most menopause research is conducted in industrialized populations, where the risk of cardiovascular diseases increases progressively during the menopausal transition.

Methodology: Weworked with the Tsimane, Indigenous Bolivian forager-farmers with physically active lifestyles, and the Moseten, genetically and culturally related horticulturalists experiencing greater market integration. We assessed relationships between menopause status and lipid biomarkers (HDL, LDL, non-HDL, total cholesterol, triglycerides, and apolipoprotein-B). Using linear mixed-effects models, in an all-age sample of n = …

Money And Social Exclusion In Networks, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Edoardo Gallo

ESI Working Papers

Globalization offers unparalleled opportunities to expand welfare through cooperation across large networks of unrelated individuals. Social exclusion – permanent or temporary – and monetary exchange are institutions that in theory can incentivize cooperation. In an experiment, we evaluate their relative performance and interaction in anonymous networks of different sizes. Permanent social exclusion (ostracism) reduces long-run economic potential by leading to sparse networks. Monetary exchange and temporary social exclusion perform similarly well in small networks. In large networks, however, monetary exchange is the only institution that promotes full cooperation by crowding out ostracism and keeping the network complete. An insight is …

Childhood Skeletal Lesions Common In Prehistory Are Present In Living Forager-Farmers And Predict Adult Markers Of Immune Function, Amy S. Anderson, Aaron Blackwell, M. Linda Sutherland, Thomas Kraft, James Sutherland, Bret Beheim, Daniel K. Cummings, Suhail Ghafoor, Paul L. Hooper, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Andrei Irimia, Margaret Gatz, Wendy Mack, Chris Rowan, Michael Miyamoto, Kenneth Buetow, Caleb Finch, L. Samuel Wann, Adel Allam, Randall C. Thompson, Gregory Thomas, Hillard Kaplan, Jonathan Stieglitz, Benjamin Trumble, Michael D. Gurven

ESI Publications

Porous cranial lesions (cribra cranii and cribra orbitalia) are widely used by archaeologists as skeletal markers of poor child health. However, their use has not been validated with systematic data from contemporary populations, where there has been little evidence of these lesions or their health relevance. Using 375 in vivo computed tomography scans from a cohort-representative sample of adults aged 40+ years from the Bolivian Amazon, among food-limited, high-mortality forager-farmers, we identified cribra cranii on 46 (12.3%) and cribra orbitalia on 23 (6%). Cribra orbitalia was associated with several hallmarks of compromised immune function, including fewer B cells, fewer naïve …

Arterial Stiffness In Heart-Healthy Indigenous Tsimane Forager-Horticulturalists, Tianyu Cao, Edhitt Cortez Linares, Raul Quispe Gutierrez, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Jesus Bani Cuata, Michael I. Miyamoto, Christopher Von Rueden, Daniel K. Cummings, Paul L. Hooper, Benjamin C. Trumble, Jonathan Stieglitz, Randall C. Thompson, Gregory S. Thomas, Hillard S. Kaplan, Daniel A. Duprez, David R. Jacobs Jr., Michael Gurven

ESI Publications

Background

Methods

Energy Expenditure And Obesity Across The Economic Spectrum, Amanda Mcgrosky, Amy Luke, Leonore Arab, Kweku Bedu-Addo, Alberto G. Bonomi, Pascal Bovet, Soren Brage, Maciej S. Buchowski, Nancy Butte, Stefan G. Camps, Regina Casper, Daniel K. Cummings, Sai Krupa Das, Sanjoy Deb, Lara R. Dugas, Ulf Ekelund, Terrence Forrester, Barry W. Fudge, Melanie Gillingham, Annelies H. Goris, Michael Gurven, Catherine Hambly, Annemiek Joosen, Peter T. Katzmarzyk, Kitty P. Kempen, William E. Kraus, Wantanee Kriengsinyos, Rebecca Kuriyan, Robert F. Kushner, Estelle V. Lambert, Christel L. Larsson, William R. Leonard, Nader Lessan, Marie Löf, Corby K. Martin, Anine C. Medin, Marian L. Neuhouser, Kirsi H. Pietilainen, Guy Plasqui, Ross L. Prentice, Susan B. Racette, David A. Raichlen, Eric Ravussin, Leanne Redman, Rebecca M. Reynolds, Eric B. Rimm, Susan Roberts, Asher Y. Rosinger, Mary H. Samuels, Srishti Sinha, J. Josh Snodgrass, Eric Stice, Ricardo Uauy, Samuel S. Urlacher, Jeanine A. Verbunt, Bruce Wolfe, Brian Wood, Xueying Zhang, Alexia J. Murphy-Alford, Cornelia J. Loechl, Jennifer Rood, Hiroyuki Sagayama, Dale A. Schoeller, Klaas R. Westerterp, William W. Wong, Yosuke Yamada, John R. Speakman, Herman Pontzer, The Iaea Dlw Database Consortium

ESI Publications

Global economic development has been associated with an increased prevalence of obesity and related health problems. Increased caloric intake and reduced energy expenditure are both cited as development-related contributors to the obesity crisis, but their relative importance remains unresolved. Here, we examine energy expenditure and two measures of obesity (body fat percentage and body mass index, BMI) for 4,213 adults from 34 populations across six continents and a wide range of lifestyles and economies, including hunter-gatherer, pastoralist, farming, and industrialized populations. Economic development was positively associated with greater body mass, BMI, and body fat, but also with greater total, basal, …

The Impact Of Insufficient Sleep On Dietary Choices And Physical Activity Behaviors: Evidence From A Randomized Cross-Over Trial, David L. Dickinson, Naomi Kakoschke, Sean P. A. Drummond

ESI Publications

The current study aimed to identify how manipulated sleep restriction affects dietary choices and physical activity (PA). Young adults were administered one week of well-rested sleep levels (WR: 8–9 h/night) and sleep-restriction (SR: 5–6 h/night) in their (naturalistic) at-home setting, using a randomized cross-over design. Participants made consequential bids for snacks/beverages following SR and WR in an auction task. Other primary outcome measures included daily self-reported dietary intake and actigraphy-measured PA. Multivariate regression analyses examined main and moderator impacts of SR on primary outcome measures. In total, 118 treatment participants completed the study (M = 20 years old, n = …

General Equilibrium Markets As Distributed Computational Systems, Steven Gjerstad

ESI Working Papers

One principal capability of markets is the coordination of information distributed among market participants who typically have competing incentives. Despite distributed information and conflicting incentives, competition among market participants often leads to socially desirable resource allocation. In this sense a market is a distributed multi-agent mechanism that, in effect, finds an optimal solution to a computational problem that is not known to any individual market participant. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that capacity of markets by defining automated agents that interact with one another in a distributed system that implements a socially desirable resource allocation. In this …

The Effects Of Sleep Restriction And Time Of Day On Food-Specific Impulsivity, Approach-Avoidance Bias And Delay Discounting, Naomi Kakoschke, David L. Dickinson, Sean P. A. Drummond

ESI Publications

Background:

Insufficient sleep and circadian timing are both linked with obesity, primarily via unhealthy food choice, yet the cognitive mechanisms underpinning such relationships remain unclear.

Methods:

Across two studies, we implemented an ecologically valid within-subjects at-home protocol. Study 1 (n = 118) involved a within-subjects examination of how sleep restriction (SR) versus well-rested (WR) sleep levels affect choices in a food-based approach-avoidance task (AAT) and go–no/go (GNG) task, a food liking task, a food-choice task, a psychomotor vigilance task (PVT), and a monetary choice task. Study 2 (n = 119) involved examining choices in the same set of …

Adam Smith’S Modeling Of Agents: Roots Versus Consequences Of Action, Vernon L. Smith, Sabiou M. Inoua

ESI Publications

Adam Smith founded his investigations of economic and social exchanges on the roots of human action (sympathy, need, self-interest), unlike the utilitarians (Hume and the neoclassical economists), who centered theirs on the consequences of human action (pleasure, utility of outcome). This distinction is key to understanding the contrast between the two schools of thought, as we emphasize in this chapter.

Price Coordination Under List Pricing And Discounting: Experimental Evidence, Roberto Hernán González, Praveen Kujal, Miguel Angel Ropero-García, Román Fossati

ESI Working Papers

List-pricing and discounting is common in both retail and wholesale markets. Its interpretation amongst competition authorities varies from being procompetitive to collusion facilitating. We experimentally test how list pricing and discounting impact prices in a capacity constrained Bertrand-Edgeworth duopoly with symmetric and asymmetric firms facing constant marginal costs. We find that, relative to the symmetric baseline experiments, list pricing and discounting generate higher equilibrium prices for (symmetric) firms. Prices in the asymmetric-list price duopoly are also higher, however, the effect is much smaller than under symmetry. The introduction of asymmetry results in higher prices. The smaller firms gain more from …

Preferences Or Confounders? Persistent Gender Gap In Competition Across Four Continents, Natalia I. Valdez-Gonzalez, Adriana Gaviria, Antonio M. Espin

ESI Working Papers

The gender gap in willingness to compete is thought to underlie enduring inequalities in education, career choice, and labor market outcomes. Yet it remains unclear whether the gap reflects true preference differences or results from confounding factors such as task stereotypes, overconfidence, or risk aversion. We test gender differences in competition entry across eight pre-registered studies in seven countries spanning four continents (Dominican Republic, Ivory Coast, El Salvador, Madagascar, Spain, The Philippines, and Uruguay; total n = 1,833), using an experimental design that systematically minimizes these confounds: (i) based on a non-male-stereotyped task (the Reading the Mind in the Eyes …

Cost-Effective Solutions For High-Throughput Enzymatic Dna Methylation Sequencing, Amy Longtin, Marina M. Watowich, Baptiste Sadoughi, Rachel M. Petersen, Sarah F. Brosnan, Kenneth Buetow, Qiuyin Cai, Cayo Biobank Research Unit, Vanderbilt University, Michael D. Gurven, James P. Higham, Heather M. Highland, Yi-Ting Huang, Hillard Kaplan, Thomas S. Kraft, Yvonne A. L. Lim, Jirong Long, Amanda D. Melin, Michael J. Montagne, Jamie Roberson, Kee Seong Ng, Michael L. Platt, India A. Schneider-Crease, Jonathan Stieglitz, Benjamin C. Trumble, Vivek Venkataraman, Ian J. Wallace, Jie Wu, Noah Snyder-Mackler, Angela Jones, Alexander G. Bick, Amanda J. Lea

ESI Publications

Characterizing DNA methylation patterns is important for addressing key questions in evolutionary biology, development, geroscience, and medical genomics. While costs are decreasing, whole-genome DNA methylation profiling remains prohibitively expensive for most population-scale studies, creating a need for cost-effective, reduced representation approaches (i.e., assays that rely on microarrays, enzyme digests, or sequence capture to target a subset of the genome). Most common whole genome and reduced representation techniques rely on bisulfite conversion, which can damage DNA resulting in DNA loss and sequencing biases. Enzymatic methyl sequencing (EM-seq) was recently proposed to overcome these issues, but thorough benchmarking of EM-seq combined with …

The Hidden Logic Behind Migration And Success, Elsa Russom

Master's Projects and Capstones

This research paper explores the hidden drivers of financial success among Eritrean migrants navigating uncertainty, displacement, and limited institutional access. Drawing on original survey data collected from diaspora communities across East African host countries, I apply a mixed-methods framework combining ordinal and binary logistic regression, random forest classification, bootstrapping, and Bayesian causal mediation; to identify the structural and cultural variables most predictive of financial stability. The findings reveal that participation in Ekub, a traditional rotating savings association, and engagement in communal support systems are the strongest predictors of financial success, outperforming conventional factors such as age, education, or employment status. …

Learning Rules Under Asymmetric Information: A Cournot Market Experiment, Marshall H. Pentes

Honors Theses

I present the use of best response (BR) and imitation (IM) learning rules in experimental Cournot duopoly markets under asymmetric information. In treatment BR, one subject (called BR1) receives, after every round, information about their previous quantity choices, the previous market prices, their previous profits, the previous quantities of the the other firm in the market, and the previous Cournot best response to the quantity of the other firm. In treatment IM, one subject (called IM1) receives, after every round, information about the prior quantities of and profits of both firms in the market. The BR1 and IM1 subjects are …

Moral Preferences In Ultimatum And Impunity Games, Valerie Capraro, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara

ESI Publications

We report on two experiments (total N = 2572) testing the role of moral preferences in one-shot, anonymous ultimatum and impunity games, which vary the veto power of responders. In the impunity game, if an offer is lower than the responder’s minimum acceptable offer, the proposer still receives his share, while the responder gets nothing. Study 1 is correlational and explores how moral preferences, as measured using the Moral Foundations Questionnaire, explain behaviour in the two games. Study 2 is causal and investigates the effect of moral suasion on behaviour. Regarding proposers, both studies provide evidence that moral preferences affect …

The Impact Of Insufficient Sleep On The Serial Reproduction Of Information, David L. Dickinson, Sean P. A. Drummond

ESI Publications

Story retelling is an important form of communication, cultural practice, and message transmission. Insufficient sleep is known to affect relevant cognitive skill areas necessary for story retelling or transmission fidelity. We conducted a preregistered randomized cross-over study on n = 155 young adults with exogenously assigned nightly sleep levels experienced in their at-home environments. A serial story reproduction task was administered online, and chains of up to three retells of a given story involved varied numbers of sleep restricted (SR) versus well-rested (WR) retellers. While story content decayed with each retell, group-level analysis showed that additional SR retellers in a …

Ruchir Sharma: What Went Wrong With Capitalism, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Publications

A review of Ruchir Sharma's What Went Wrong With Capitalism.

Religion And Economic Development: Past, Present, And Future, Sascha O. Becker, Amma Panin, Steven J. Pfaff, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

This chapter examines the role of religion in economic development, both historically and today. Religion's influence varies globally, with high religiosity in countries like Pakistan and low rates in China. Despite declines in some Western countries, religion remains influential worldwide, with projected growth in Muslim populations due to higher fertility rates. Religion continues to shape societal norms and institutions, such as education and politics, even after its direct influence fades. The chapter explores how religious institutions and norms have impacted economic outcomes, focusing on both persistence and decline. It also examines cultural transmission, institutional entrenchment, networks, and religious competition as …

Religion, Culture, And Politics, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

This chapter presents a conceptual framework for understanding the interaction of religion, ideology, and politics. The framework’s key insights are: i) culture and ideology provide a shared mental framework for interpreting the world; ii) ideology is malleable, and it can be used to justify a wide set of empirical realities in a manner that is consistent with the prevailing mental framework; iii) religion is particularly adept at shaping this mental framework because it attempts to explain the unknown; iv) because co-religionists share a mental framework that depends on a (religious) interpretation of events, religions are particularly likely to be co-opted …

From Home To Abroad: The Intergenerational Impact Of Household Member Migration On Women’S Economic & Social Empowerment In Egypt, Menna Elgohary

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates to what extent the migration of a household member to an Arab country leads to increased social and economic empowerment among Egyptian women of two age categories (15-35 and +35) over two waves. Determined through Principle Component Analysis (PCA) of panel data from Egypt Labor Market Panel Surveys in 2018 and 2023, composite indices of social and economic empowerment serve as dependent variables in an IV 2SLS regression model. The model assesses whether household member migration, proxied by migration prevalence on the district (qism) level as an IV, causes a significant increase in social and economic empowerment …