Macroeconomics Commons^™

Recession Emerges As The Most Like Scenario, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

The U.S. economy faces the prospect of a second recession as the Federal Reserve Bank continues to raise interest rates to confront inflationary forces. These forces include elevated asset prices and a wage-price spiral. Further interest rate increases are likely given a challenging environment to reduce inflation. Challenges include limited migration and a slow-growing labor force, trade restrictions, regulatory restrictions that limit energy production and raise the minimum wage as well as excessive federal government spending. Federal spending through the CARES Act, Coronavirus Supplemental Appropriations Act, American Rescue Plan, and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act continue to fuel excess demand. …

Growth Likely In A Time Of Uncertainty, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

The U.S. economy continues to recover from the recession which occurred during March and April of 2020. Demand has been strong for both goods and services. At the same time, supply constraints are a concern in the economy, contributing to both higher prices and in some cases lost production within industries. Supply constraints are evident in both inputs (supplies) and labor. Labor force growth has been anemic in the last two years given slow population growth and a roughly 2 percent decline in the labor force participation rate. Looking forward, the baseline outlook is for the U.S. economic recovery to …

Sales Capture Patterns Among Nebraska Counties, Eric Thompson, Spencer Cook

Business in Nebraska

Sales capture, the share of local spending power that is captured by area businesses, is an important measure of economic activity. Greater sales capture, which is typically measured using data on local taxable sales, creates multiple benefits for the economy. 1. EMPLOYMENT: Greater sales capture means more employment in retailers, wholesalers, restaurants, hotels, and other businesses subject to sales tax. 2. TAX REVENUE: Taxable sales are an important part of the tax base of many city governments. 3. QUALITY OF LIFE: Retail and hospitality (restaurants, lodging, amusement, and recreation) businesses account for a significant share of taxable sales. These industries …

Producer Services: An Engine For High-Wage Job Growth, Spencer Cook, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

Producer services providers are firms that sell services primarily to the business community rather than to individuals and households. Many producer services businesses are classified in the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Service (PSTS) industry. Accounting firms, consultants, and computer design services are prominent examples of PSTS businesses that are worth studying for three reasons:

1. SUPPORT OF OTHER INDUSTRIES: PSTS industries supply the broader business community, making them a critical segment of the economy.

2. RAPID HIGH WAGE JOB GROWTH: Many PSTS industries are rapidly growing and pay high wages. The producer services sector, in fact, is the principal source …

The Nebraska Economy Responds To The Covid-19 Pandemic, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

The Nebraska economy will contract in 2020 but the rate of decline will not be as rapid as nationwide. The economic structure of Nebraska is more focused on production and transportation than the national economy and less focused on hard-hit industries such as hospitality, entertainment, automobile parts and assembly, and oil production. Nebraska also may benefit from a higher quality workforce, which is better able to adapt to changing economic conditions.

Employment will drop by 2.4% in Nebraska in 2020, much less than the national rate of decline. Employment will rebound by 2.0% in 2021 and 1.4% in 2022. With …

Consumers Support A Slowing Economy, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

Nebraska will record moderate economic growth during the forecast period but will lag U.S. growth. Like the national economy, growth Nebraska’s goods producing sector will struggle. Farm incomes will be flat from 2020 to 2022 after improving this year. Manufacturing employment also is expected to drop. However, most other sectors will expand, including services, finance and construction. Projected growth rates for 2020 to 2022 are presented in Table 1.

Employment will grow by 0.6% to 0.8% per year, below the national rate. Non-farm income will grow between 3.7% and 3.8% each year. This growth readily exceeds inflation and population growth, …