Macroeconomics Commons^™

Legal Setbacks, Disbursement Sudden Stops, And Fiscal Stimulus: An Empirical Characterization Of A Recent Philippine Characterization Of A Recent Philippine Fiscal Experience, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy, Mariel Monica R. Sauler

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

No abstract provided.

Recession Emerges As The Most Like Scenario, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

The U.S. economy faces the prospect of a second recession as the Federal Reserve Bank continues to raise interest rates to confront inflationary forces. These forces include elevated asset prices and a wage-price spiral. Further interest rate increases are likely given a challenging environment to reduce inflation. Challenges include limited migration and a slow-growing labor force, trade restrictions, regulatory restrictions that limit energy production and raise the minimum wage as well as excessive federal government spending. Federal spending through the CARES Act, Coronavirus Supplemental Appropriations Act, American Rescue Plan, and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act continue to fuel excess demand. …

Essays On The Economic Effects Of Income Inequality, Adir Dos Santos Mancebo Junior

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Income inequality has been rising throughout the world. In the United States, for example, the income share of the population at the top 10% of the income distribution rose 34% from 1980 to 2019 according to data from the World Inequality Database. This dissertation studies how increasing levels of income inequality might affect the economy.

In the first chapter, I show that changes in the level of income inequality may affect consumption volatility through changes in household aggregate marginal propensity to consume (MPC). I propose a simple theoretical framework to explain this dynamic and evaluate it empirically, combining data from …

Growth Likely In A Time Of Uncertainty, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

The U.S. economy continues to recover from the recession which occurred during March and April of 2020. Demand has been strong for both goods and services. At the same time, supply constraints are a concern in the economy, contributing to both higher prices and in some cases lost production within industries. Supply constraints are evident in both inputs (supplies) and labor. Labor force growth has been anemic in the last two years given slow population growth and a roughly 2 percent decline in the labor force participation rate. Looking forward, the baseline outlook is for the U.S. economic recovery to …

Sales Capture Patterns Among Nebraska Counties, Eric Thompson, Spencer Cook

Business in Nebraska

Sales capture, the share of local spending power that is captured by area businesses, is an important measure of economic activity. Greater sales capture, which is typically measured using data on local taxable sales, creates multiple benefits for the economy. 1. EMPLOYMENT: Greater sales capture means more employment in retailers, wholesalers, restaurants, hotels, and other businesses subject to sales tax. 2. TAX REVENUE: Taxable sales are an important part of the tax base of many city governments. 3. QUALITY OF LIFE: Retail and hospitality (restaurants, lodging, amusement, and recreation) businesses account for a significant share of taxable sales. These industries …

Essays On Macroeconomics And Financial Economics, Maryam Aljahani

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation comprises of three Essays. The first essay classifies households as savers and borrowers based on their wealth during the credit cycle. It examines the wealth effects of the saving and housing decisions of heterogeneous households over a credit cycle. To do so, we employ the Difference-in-Difference estimator and find evidence of a significant difference between the wealth effect for savers and borrowers. In the second essay, we examine the extent to which credit-constrained households are able to accumulate wealth when the macro environment is characterized by the presence of a liquidity trap and borrowing constraints. Our evidence highlights …

Producer Services: An Engine For High-Wage Job Growth, Spencer Cook, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

Producer services providers are firms that sell services primarily to the business community rather than to individuals and households. Many producer services businesses are classified in the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Service (PSTS) industry. Accounting firms, consultants, and computer design services are prominent examples of PSTS businesses that are worth studying for three reasons:

1. SUPPORT OF OTHER INDUSTRIES: PSTS industries supply the broader business community, making them a critical segment of the economy.

2. RAPID HIGH WAGE JOB GROWTH: Many PSTS industries are rapidly growing and pay high wages. The producer services sector, in fact, is the principal source …

Macroeconomic Stabilization In The Digital Age, John Beirne, David Fernandez

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Macroeconomic Stabilization in the Digital Age provides insights into factors affecting the macroeconomic management of the economy in the digital age. Policy makers need to be aware of the increasing prominence of the digital economy and digital finance and seek to better understand how continued digitalization will affect policies aimed at managing the economy. For emerging market economies (EMEs), macroeconomic policy challenges have been exacerbated by the digital finance revolution in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, when many EMEs experienced large and volatile capital flows. Policy makers must also navigate through fluctuating …

Principles Of Macroeconomics, Ernesto Garcia Iii

Open Educational Resources

No abstract provided.

The Nebraska Economy Responds To The Covid-19 Pandemic, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

The Nebraska economy will contract in 2020 but the rate of decline will not be as rapid as nationwide. The economic structure of Nebraska is more focused on production and transportation than the national economy and less focused on hard-hit industries such as hospitality, entertainment, automobile parts and assembly, and oil production. Nebraska also may benefit from a higher quality workforce, which is better able to adapt to changing economic conditions.

Employment will drop by 2.4% in Nebraska in 2020, much less than the national rate of decline. Employment will rebound by 2.0% in 2021 and 1.4% in 2022. With …

Consumers Support A Slowing Economy, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

Nebraska will record moderate economic growth during the forecast period but will lag U.S. growth. Like the national economy, growth Nebraska’s goods producing sector will struggle. Farm incomes will be flat from 2020 to 2022 after improving this year. Manufacturing employment also is expected to drop. However, most other sectors will expand, including services, finance and construction. Projected growth rates for 2020 to 2022 are presented in Table 1.

Employment will grow by 0.6% to 0.8% per year, below the national rate. Non-farm income will grow between 3.7% and 3.8% each year. This growth readily exceeds inflation and population growth, …

Modeling The Economic Machine Using Bayesian Inference And Statistical Networks, And Optimal Portfolio Construction Using Operations Research, Richard Yang

ENGS 88 Honors Thesis (AB Students)

In this paper, we propose a network-based model to attempt to connect modern macroeconomic theory with real world economic observations and trends. We find that by extending macroeconomic theory with credit leveraging/deleveraging thresholds, we are able to explain economic cycles in addition to long-term growth. Furthermore, we specifically explore the growth-inflation view of the macro economy as a basis for optimal portfolio construction and efficient asset trading. Connecting our network-based macroeconomic model and our optimal portfolio construction algorithm, we create a novel macroeconomic asset-trading framework.

Trends And Tariffs: Nebraska In An Aging Recovery, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

Nebraska will record solid economic growth during the forecast period but will lag U.S. growth. Nebraska’s large farming sector is struggling and will not contribute much to economic growth during the forecast period. Job growth also will be sluggish in transportation and retail trade. Job growth, however, will be stronger in the services, finance, manufacturing and construction. Projected growth rates for 2019 to 2021 are presented in Table 1.

Employment will grow by 0.7% to 0.9% per year, below the national rate. Nonfarm income will grow between 4.4% and 4.5% each year. This growth readily exceeds inflation and population growth, …

Macroeconomics Course Outline And Syllabus, Sean P. Macdonald

Open Educational Resources

No abstract provided.

The Dynamic Interrelationship Between Interest Rate And Macroeconomic Policy Objectives: Case Of The United Kingdom, Mostafa Aboelsoud, Dimitrios Paparas, Azzouz Zouaoui, Mustafa Kasim

Economics

The objective of this study is to provide empirical evidence on the short- and long-run relationships between the short-term interest rate, London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) and macroeconomic policy objectives, such as price stability, economic growth, and stability of the exchange rate market. For this purpose, we deploy quarterly frequency data from the United Kingdom between 2000 and 2015 and adopt a multiple regression model.

Furthermore, this study uses the Johansen, Stock-Watson cointegration test and the Granger Causality test in order to examine the dynamic short- and long-run relationships among LIBOR, the consumer price index as a proxy of price …

Zero Textbook Cost Syllabus For Economics 201 (Macroeconomic Theory), Bettina E. Berch

Open Educational Resources

This is a zero textbook cost syllabus for teaching macroeconomic theory at the 200 level at a community college. It is designed for a one semester course, using a creative commons textbook and a variety of open source podcasts, newspaper articles, and other materials available to CUNY students.

Sustainability In The Curriculum And Teaching Of Economics: Transforming Introductory Macroeconomics, Madhavi Venkatesan

Economics Faculty Publications

Present models of economic growth primarily focus on the role of expenditures as captured in the commonly cited economic indicator, gross domestic product (GDP), where GDP is defined as the sum of final goods and services sold within a country’s natural borders. Noting that a country’s expenditures are referred to as “aggregate expenditures” and that the majority of spending is specific to consumption or consumer spending, especially in the United States where this spending category is nearly two-thirds of annual GDP (other expenditure categories for GDP include investment spending, government spending and foreign spending as proxied by net exports), there …

Industry Career Guide: Construction, Ma. Concepcion G. Latoja, Dickson A. Lim

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

This paper is a career guide on the Philippine construction industry. It provides a general overview into the nature and role of construction in the context of the general macroeconomy, highlights its employment-generating capacity and manpower development prospects, and gives jobseekers and other interested parties a peek into the industry’s likely direction in terms of performance and labor market interface within the next short run cycle.

Breaking The Chains Of Poverty Among Filipino Households: Will It Be In This Lifetime?, John Paolo R. Rivera

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) attributes persistent poverty in the Philippines to “weak macroeconomic management, employment issues, high population growth, an underperforming agricultural sector and unfinished land reform agenda, governance issues including corruption and a weak state, conflict and security issues, particularly in Mindanao, and disability” (Asian Development Bank [ADB], 2005, xvii). Despite copious and varied government initiatives to remedy the situation, however, Filipinos in the lower income deciles continue to suffer from the constant deprivation of basic necessities (Schelzig, 2005).

Application Of An Adaptive Step-Size Algorithm In Models Of Hyperinflation, Olena Kostyshyna

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

An adaptive step-size algorithm [Kushner and Yin, Stochastic Approximation and Recursive Algorithms and Applications, 2nd ed., New York: Springer-Verlag (2003)] is used to model time-varying learning, and its performance is illustrated in the environment of Marcet and Nicolini [American Economic Review 93 (2003), 1476–1498]. The resulting model gives qualitatively similar results to those of Marcet and Nicolini, and performs quantitatively somewhat better, based on the criterion of mean squared error. The model generates increasing gain during hyperinflations and decreasing gain after hyperinflations end, which matches findings in the data. An agent using this model behaves cautiously when faced …

Philadelphia Fed Forecasting Surveys: Their Value For Research, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has conducted both the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Livingston Survey for 20 years. Both surveys of private-sector forecasters provide researchers, central bankers, news media, and the public with detailed forecasts of major macroeconomic variables. The surveys have proved helpful for people who are planning for the future, and they have also provided useful input into the decisions of policymakers at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere. In this article, Dean Croushore provides an overview of the surveys and discusses the ways in which researchers have used the surveys.

Estimating The Macroeconomic Consequence Of 9/11, S. Brock Blomberg, Gregory Hess

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

We perform an empirical investigation to estimate the macroeconomic cost of September 11 attacks on the United States economy. We estimate the impact of the attacks to be approximately a 0.50 percentage point decrease in GDP growth or $60 billion. Our upper bound estimate of the impact of September 11 is approximately twice that or $125 billion.

Monetary Convergence And Risk Premiums In The Eu Accession Countries, Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study examines the impact of various monetary policy regimes on the ability to lower inflation and exchange rate risk premiums in the EU accession countries as they undergo monetary convergence to the eurozone. It proposes a monetary policy framework of flexible targeting of relative inflation risk premium that is believed to be credible and useful for managing these two categories of risk. A model of inflation and exchange rate risk premiums within the context of inflation targeting is developed. Recent trends in these risk premiums in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland are tested by employing the threshold ARCH …

Recognizing Macroeconomic Fluctuations In Value Based Management, Lars Oxelheim, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Value Based Management (VBM) has become a common tool for evaluating corporate strategies and projects from the perspective of shareholder value maximization, and can be an important input for corporate compensation systems. But traditional VBM frameworks make no systematic effort to distinguish between changes in performance attributable to macroeconomic fluctuations beyond management's control and changes in performance that reflect the intrinsic competitive position of the firm.

The authors have developed an approach for “filtering out” the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on cash flows for purposes of performance evaluation. Such fluctuations are captured by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and …

Economic Crisis And Reform In Bulgaria, 1989-92, Jonathan B. Wight, M. Louise Fox

Economics Faculty Publications

Bulgaria's economy began a deep and prolonged collapse in 1989, exactly one hundred years after the noted Bulgarian novelist Ivan Vazov published his stirring novel opposing the tyranny of the Ottomans and warning of the mistaken road of socialism. The 1989 collapse was partially a reflection of the external political upheavals among Bulgaria's trading partners in Eastern Europe, which were rejecting socialist principles. But it was also a reflection of the weaknesses imbedded in the economy after 30 years of central planning. Political instability within Bulgaria, market reforms, and attempts at privatization contributed further to economic uncertainty resulting in a …

Introducing Students To The Competing Schools Of Thought In Intermediate Macroeconomics, Harlan M. Smith Ii

Economics Faculty Research

The article discusses how the intermediate macroeconomics instructor can introduce students to ways of old and new Keynesians and classical theorists addressed the question on why output and employment fluctuate. Keynesian macroeconomics characterizes a school of thought developed around two central prepositions. New Keynesians develop alternative ways of explaining short-run movements in output and employment in the early 1970's. All individuals maximize utility, firm maximizes profits. Recently, new classicals developed an alternative approach in explaining short-run fluctuation in employment and output by redefining the concept of the short run.

The Demand For Money Function In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, F.O. Oresotu, C.N.O. Mordi

CBN Occasional Papers

This paper provides further empirical evidence on the nature of the demand for money function in Nigeria for the period 1960-1991. The paper also addressed the issue of the appropriate adjustment process, structural stability of the estimated equations, as well as the influence of external factors on money demand function in an open economy, such as Nigeria. The main conclusions which emerged from the analysis are that, the real adjustment mechanism appeared to be the most appropriate adjustment process for modelling money demand in Nigeria; the influence of external variables like the foreign interest rate and exchange rate should not …

Trade Problems And Trade Policies, Sven W. Arndt

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

The contemporary protectionist furor in the U.S. Congress is not only unprecedented in the post-World War II era but also anomalous. It is anomalous because it occurs in the context of an economic recovery and one of the most extended recoveries at hat. Although unprecedented and anomalous, it is not difficult to explain for it occurs during one of the most unbalanced economic recoveries on record.

A Primer On Macroeconomics For South Dakotans, Philip Favero

Economics Staff Paper Series

What is macroeconomics, you ask; and what does it mean to me? Macroeconomics is the study of aggregate economic conditions, such as a nation's employment, unemployment, and general price levels. Throughout history nations have experienced boom-to-bust cycles--times of employment and prosperity, followed by times of unemployment and hardship. Macroeconomics provides policy makers with ideas to promote economic stability - ways to combat the twin economic evils of unemployment and inflation.