Macroeconomics Commons^™

Availability Of Infrastructure For Poverty Reduction In Indonesia: Spatial Panel Data Analysis, Galih Pramono

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Poverty is a key issue in various developing countries, including Indonesia. One of the efforts to reduce poverty is building the infrastructure. Therefore, this study aims to determine the effect of infrastructure on the level of poverty by considering the spatial effect in the period 2011-2015. This study applies spatial panel data analysis with Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model with fixed effect. The findings show that the infrastructure of electricity, health, sanitation, and building of senior high school has a significant negative impact on the percentage of the underprivileged people. Meanwhile, the building of elementary school has a significant positive impact …

Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles Mccann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin

SMU Data Science Review

Current models for predicting personal consumption expenditures (PCE) employ statistical techniques and rely upon traditional economic features. We compare vector autoregression and random forest regression models using traditional economic features as inputs to predict PCE. Additionally, we develop novel features derived from the earnings call transcripts of publicly traded U.S. companies using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. These new features reduce the mean square error (MSE) of the vector autoregression model by 7% and the random forest model by 23%. We find the random forest models outperformed the vector autoregression models, with a MSE reduction of 68%. We conclude the …

Globalization And Social Spending: Lessons For India, Ansh Jain

Honors Program Theses

As developing countries increasingly integrate themselves into the global economy, increased social spending is desirable to protect their vulnerable groups from rapid changes experienced by the economy associated with increased openness. However, while developed nations are largely successful in maintaining and increasing their social spending as a response to globalization, the case with developing countries is usually the opposite. We find that key determinants of this divergence between developing and developed countries stems from factors such as the extent of surplus and informal labor, quality of democracy and democratic institutions, and the power of unions. As India further integrates into …

Modeling And Forecasting Glacier National Park Visitation, Michael James Kernan

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

National parks have recently seen increased visitation demand. Glacier National Park is located in an area where changes in weather and climate will occur at an accelerated rate. Changes in fire and precipitation regimes are taking place at a time when Glacier National Park is setting new visitation records. This paper uses regression and forecast models to investigate the changing landscape of park visitation.

Findings suggest important impacts to monthly visitation and cycling on Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier National Park are associated with forest fire activity and precipitation. The conclusions of this paper support perceptions about the effect natural occurrences …

Regulations, Governance, And Resolution Of Non-Performing Loan: Evidence From An Emerging Economy, Abu S. Amin, Mahmood Osman Iman, Mahfuja Malik

WCBT Faculty Publications

How do banks resolve a severe bad loan problem in a capital-constrained, low-income economy when a government bailout is not an option? We address this question by examining new evidence from a sharp decline in bad loan ratios in a panel of conventional commercial banks in Bangladesh. On the aggregate level, the bad loan ratio in this market has dropped from 41% in 1999 to only 10% in 2012. We find that at a micro level, this dramatic improvement is associated with bank management quality and internal governance that were substantially enhanced during a decade of large-scale regulatory reforms. The …

Essays On Institutions And Development, Andrew Jonelis

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

The essays in this dissertation examine how political institutions affect economic development. In the first essay, I examine how executive control of the legislature shapes the time horizon of governing politicians and its effect on economic growth. The second essay examines how border changes over the past two centuries have provided different areas within modern countries with different institutional histories and how this affects the geographic concentration of economic activity. For the final essay, I examine whether elections have an effect on macroeconomic volatility when controlling for the democratic nature of the regime.

Policy, Aggregate Productivity And Misallocation, Guowen Chen

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

This dissertation explores the effects of factors such as industrial policy and listing on the stock market on manufacturing firms’ profitability and productivity.

The second chapter investigates the effect of industrial policies on misallocation using a rich data-set of Chinese firms. Using a difference-in-difference approach, I provide evidence that government policies (i.e. the 10^th Five Year Plan) favoring particular industries lead to increased misallocation (i.e., an increase in the dispersion of revenue productivity across firms in four-digit industries). Moreover, the differential changes between industries supported and not supported by the 10^th Five Year Plan are quantitatively large and …

The Effects Of Destruction: A Macroeconomic Story, Kara Riesing

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

Destructive events such as natural disasters and terrorist attacks occur not only in developing economies but also developed economies. Consequently, the response of these economies has been observed in case of both type of events. This dissertation is a collection of essays regarding natural disasters, terrorist attacks and the macroeconomy. Specifically, I examine the response of local labor markets that reflect a wide spectrum of economies, but also have a safety-net in the form of being part of a developed country in the aftermath of a violent tornado. Further, I explore the heterogeneity in the economies response to natural disasters …

The Distributional And Countercyclical Effects Of Public Capital Investment In Transportation Infrastructure, Matthijs B. Schendstok

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

While the long run productivity of federal highway infrastructure spending has been well researched, their short run effects and effects on income inequality. This dissertation explores those under-researched unconventional effects.

In the first chapter, I investigate the effects of federal infrastructure grants on income inequality. I find that grants reduce inequality in both recipient and neighboring states. The reduction is driven by greater income among the bottom three income quintiles. I explore two mechanisms using person level data and find that the reduction in inequality is attributable to higher income for low-skilled workers and workers working in low-skilled industries.

In …

Money Notes, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2019, October 2). Money notes and Isabella proposal defense [Folder cover and sticky note].

• Shaikh, A. (1997, January 12). Growth and endogenous money supply [Unpublished handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (1992, May 12). Internal finance and consumption demand [Unpublished handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (1996, October 4). The meaning of the money market [Unpublished handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (1996, March 28). Bank credit and new money [Unpublished handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Commercial bank assets, bank liabilities, FMFBA, and FMBASE: Data table printouts with annotations [Data tables with handwritten notes].

• …

What Do We Know About The Recent Performance Of Indian Banks?, Laira Aggarwal

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the performance of Indian banks by studying the effects of recent reforms and macroeconomic events. Indian banks went through a period of reforms in the past twenty years. The impact of these reforms and major macroeconomic events has been examined using time-series analysis. Event studies offer additional perspective on the short-run effect of the events on different types of Indian banks. Although, the event dates are not all statistically significant in the time-series regressions, the demonetization of 2016 is significant in the event study analysis. Thus, while reforms and events have immediate impact on the performance of …

The Effect Of Outward Foreign Direct Investment On Exports In Japan During The Lost Decade, 1985-2005, Alexandros Ladas

Dissertations and Theses

This study will utilize an OLS analysis of the panel data coming from various databases such as the World Bank, Federal Reserve and etc. to determine if there exists a significant correlation between the exports of Japan and its foreign direct investment (FDI) in the period of 1985-2005 with nearby trading partners of which include the countries of ASEAN, China and South Korea. In addition, a selection of supplemental factors will be used to determine if they also possess any significance with exports. These factors include: the exchange rate of the Japanese yen with the currency of the trading partner …

Accounting For Agent Heterogeneity In Market And Policy Analysis, Konstantinos Giannakas

Zea E-Books Collection

doi:10.13014/K2416V8V

This book presents a multi-market framework of market and policy analysis that explicitly accounts for the empirically relevant heterogeneity in consumer preferences and producer characteristics. The explicit consideration of consumer and producer heterogeneity represents a significant departure from the representative consumer and producer that have been at the center of most of the literature on market and policy analysis, and enables the distributional impacts of changes in market conditions and policies to be fully identified. The framework is used to analyze the system-wide market and welfare impacts of a number of changes in market conditions (like changes in consumer …

Global Capital Flows, Time Varying Fundamentals And Transitional Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Ms-Var Approach, Süleyman Hilmi Kal, Ilhami Gunduz

Publications and Research

This paper studies whether dynamic relationship between exchange rate and economic and financial fundamentals vary depending on exchange rate is overvalued and undervalued with respect to its fundamental value. To achieve this, we implement two-state Markov Switching Vector Auto Regression (MSVAR) model with time varying transition probabilities to investigate whether the relationship among exchange rate, interest rate and inflation dynamics depend on overvaluation and undervaluation of exchange rates for the pre-crises period between years 1972-2009. We govern the transition between the undervalued and overvalued states by using Sharpe Ratios of debt and equity investments of the currency to assess whether …

Front Box Of Flash Cards, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

Shaikh, A. (2019, October 1). Money notes: Isabella proposal defense [Folder cover].

Shaikh, A. (1997, January 12). Growth and endogenous money supply [Unpublished handwritten notes].

Shaikh, A. (1992, May 12). Internal finance & cons. demand [Unpublished handwritten notes].

Shaikh, A. (1996, October 4). The meaning of the money market [Unpublished handwritten notes].

Shaikh, A. (1996, March 28). Bank credit and multiplier rounds [Unpublished handwritten notes].

Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Commercial bank assets and liabilities: Data tables with annotations [Data tables with handwritten annotations].

Shaikh, A. (1997, February 27). A note on the money stock [Unpublished manuscript].

Shaikh, A. …

Financial Market Risk And Macroeconomic Stability Variables: Dynamic Interactions And Feedback Effects, Agnieszka M. Chomicz-Grabowska

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This study investigates dynamic interactions and feedback effects between financial market risk proxied by VIX and key macroeconomic stability variables that include the rate of unemployment, headline inflation and market-based inflation expectations reflected by the breakeven inflation. I argue that market risk should play a stronger role in macroeconomic modeling and forecasting than it has been recognized thus far in the literature. I employ vector autoregression with impulse response functions, as well as two-state Markov switching tests to examine these interactions on the longest available US monthly data. The empirical tests show that the association between market risk and macroeconomic …