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Articles 1 - 5 of 5
Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics
The End Of The Three Percent Rule: How Structural Changes In The U.S. Economy Have Impacted Economic Growth, Maxwell J. Urman
The End Of The Three Percent Rule: How Structural Changes In The U.S. Economy Have Impacted Economic Growth, Maxwell J. Urman
CMC Senior Theses
Using data from government sources (FRED, BEA, BLS), the thesis explores the underlying reasons for declining U.S. economic growth. A long standing trend of annual 3% growth no longer seems to hold true for the economy. The paper summarizes current theory as to why the growth has slowed and finds new explanations by analyzing the various major industries which make up GDP. The results show that sectoral shifts in employment from high paying industries to low paying industries help to explain a significant portion of the decline in national growth rates. The decline in growth is primarily driven by about …
What Goes Up Must Come Down: The Relationship Between The Housing Market Boom And The Subsequent Economic Downturn: Evidence From The Msa Level, Bruce Dale Service
What Goes Up Must Come Down: The Relationship Between The Housing Market Boom And The Subsequent Economic Downturn: Evidence From The Msa Level, Bruce Dale Service
CMC Senior Theses
Using MSA level data, the paper shows, that geographic areas which experienced the largest housing bubble generally suffered a more serious subsequent economic downturn. More specifically, the paper establishes that MSAs with larger declines in housing permits had larger increases in unemployment. There also appears to be strong evidence of a correlation between the magnitude of a housing boom and the timing of the decline in housing permits. MSAs which experienced larger real housing inflation offered early indications of the subsequent Great Recession.
Degree Matters: The Impact Of A Leader’S Foreign Education On His Country’S Economic Development, Zhongyi Yu
Degree Matters: The Impact Of A Leader’S Foreign Education On His Country’S Economic Development, Zhongyi Yu
CMC Senior Theses
I analyze the correlation between a nation leader’s foreign education experience and their nation’s GDP growth and economic freedom in African, Asian, and South American countries. There is a statistically significant correlation between a leader’s foreign education and the country’s GDP growth rate, especially in Africa. Data also shows that a leader’s foreign education is positively correlated with his country’s economic freedom. Despite the fact that the regressions can only demonstrate correlation as opposed to causation relationships among variables, further analysis of the results concludes that a leader’s education and the country’s development are reciprocal. The findings of this paper …
Are Oil Prices Important To U.S. Manufacturers?, Austin Perez Schoff
Are Oil Prices Important To U.S. Manufacturers?, Austin Perez Schoff
CMC Senior Theses
Very little has been written about the effect that oil prices have on manufacturing output in the United States. This paper aims to shed light about the effect of oil prices, oil imports, and GDP on U.S. manufacturing output through a four-variable vector autoregression and explain the timing of these shocks through impulse response functions. Empirical results find that oil prices are significant in determining manufacturing output, but manufacturing output is also significant in determining oil prices.
The Political Impact Of Rising Trade Exposure: Evidence From 2000 - 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections, Xiaoyang Qian
The Political Impact Of Rising Trade Exposure: Evidence From 2000 - 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections, Xiaoyang Qian
CMC Senior Theses
In this paper we analyze the impact of global imports on regional labor markets, and how such impact translates to changes in voting patterns in the U.S. Presidential elections from 2000 to 2016. We find that imports from different U.S. trading partners influence voting patterns in different ways. In particular, we observe an anti-incumbent effect caused by import competition from OECD countries. Such an effect cannot be observed for imports from low-income countries. There is also evidence that suggests high exposure to import competition tends to drive voters toward the Democratic candidate, who typically proposes better social welfare programs and …